The Road to Qatar.

[lamptern]

3 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

This format would be a lot more palatable with one minor tweak.  If the 7-35 winner beats the hex #4 team they should have the chance to challenge the hex #3 team for the last automatic berth.  This could easily be done by moving the 7-35 vs 4 series from November to October of 2021.  the October 2021 window is currently unused.  Then that would leave the November window available for the challenge series.  

Ultimately, it's being shut out of automatic berths that is CONCACAF's biggest crime.

Simple and fair... (enough)

[villus]

18 minutes ago, Addona said:

No ... the math has been done many times by many people... the conclusion is always the same!!!  The Hex path is much better!!!

This.  Its not even close, the Hex is much easier, the other route is a mindfield with no real room for error and any route that has to go through South America is a death sentence.  A home and away against someone like Chile or Peru would have Canada as big, big underdogs.  Chile, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay are all most likely favorites against Mexico the best team in the region except maybe Peru who is possibly a slight underdog.  

[Alex]

40 minutes ago, lamptern said:

Is it still the easiest path if they draw a south America team for intercontinental playoff? 

Of course not. It’s the easiest path if we draw Oceania. 

[Alex]

My logic is as follows:

Let’s say we play British Virgins, st vag and Belize.

Then we play Bermuda (QF), Panama (SF), Curaçao (F) and then Honduras. If we draw ofc it’s New Zealand for the World Cup. 16 games and against nobody in the top 50. 

[lamptern]

11 minutes ago, Alex said:

Of course not. It’s the easiest path if we draw Oceania. 

Then, I'd rather say it's a suspensive path.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

I said it when they first announced this format: this could be the easiest path (the 7-35 one) to the World Cup by any team. Ever. 

New Zealand 2010 will forever be the easiest in history.  Win the Oceania title with +4 million goal difference and then dispatch the mighty Bahrain 1-0 on aggregate

[lamptern]

12 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

New Zealand 2010 will forever be the easiest in history.  Win the Oceania title with +4 million goal difference and then dispatch the mighty Bahrain 1-0 on aggregate

They will live in paradise forever starting 2026 WCQ.

Unless, Australia come back or Oceania merges Asia which I can't see any clue so far.

[Floortom]

Does anyone know when the draw is to determine whether it’s Oceania or South America that hold the other half spot ?

[lamptern]

The draw for the inter-confederation play-offs was held as part of the 2018 FIFA World Cup Preliminary Draw.

For WC2026, Unlike previous tournaments, it was agreed that there will be no general preliminary draw, with various draws to be held separately due to "a different timeline" for various confederations.

So, the suspension could be a long lasting one until end of 2021.

[Kent]

On 11/16/2019 at 6:47 PM, dyslexic nam said:

So 14-16 competitive matches in the next 2.5 years, with everything after the group stage probably being against reasonable decent CONCACAF opposition.

Mathematically speaking it’s actually 4 to 16 games. We are far from guaranteed 14 games. Especially since I feel like the group of teams outside the top 6 may be the strongest it has ever been. Panama, Curaçao, Haiti, Guatemala, and to a lesser extent T&T are all quality teams. It would be a huge shock for us to not win our group (since presumably it will be seeded), but the QF could be against one of those teams and then it’s certainly possible we stumble at that step. Haiti and Curaçao have tied Costa Rica 3 times in 4 games in the Nations League, not to mention Haiti finishing ahead of Costa Rica in the Gold Cup group stage and then beating us in the QF. And Curaçao finished ahead of 2 would-be hex teams (Honduras and El Salvador) in the Gold Cup group stage as well.

The hex would guarantee 10 games all more high profile than any we would have in the lower route save for the inter continental playoff or game with the 4th hex team, if we are to make it that far.

It wouldn’t be easy by any stretch, but give me the hex any day.

[dyslexic nam]

9 minutes ago, Kent said:

Mathematically speaking it’s actually 4 to 16 games. We are far from guaranteed 14 games. Especially since I feel like the group of teams outside the top 6 may be the strongest it has ever been. Panama, Curaçao, Haiti, Guatemala, and to a lesser extent T&T are all quality teams. It would be a huge shock for us to not win our group (since presumably it will be seeded), but the QF could be against one of those teams and then it’s certainly possible we stumble at that step. Haiti and Curaçao have tied Costa Rica 3 times in 4 games in the Nations League, not to mention Haiti finishing ahead of Costa Rica in the Gold Cup group stage and then beating us in the QF. And Curaçao finished ahead of 2 would-be hex teams (Honduras and El Salvador) in the Gold Cup group stage as well.

The hex would guarantee 10 games all more high profile than any we would have in the lower route save for the inter continental playoff or game with the 4th hex team, if we are to make it that far.

It wouldn’t be easy by any stretch, but give me the hex any day.

I didn’t mean to imply that the 14-16 games was guaranteed - it is just the number we would get if we go the distance in the process.  

Like I said - I think we get through to the semis without worrying too much, assuming the QF knockout round is seeded.  That means we should get 10 games at least - 6 if we are in a group of 4, and then 2 each in QF and SF.  

The opposition is def weaker, but they are at least meaningful games.  And there is the potential for a solid number of games against good opposition if we go far enough. QF, SF, F, and intercontinental playoff would be 8 potential games against decent opposition.  

Just trying to look on the bright side.  

[SpursFlu]

The reasons the alternate route is not good over many reasons is basically I think everyone involved including, us, players, media etc are just completely over Canada playing all these tiny countries. We're trying to sell this to everyone and now we have 2 more years of slogging thru this. It's enough already

It's definitely leaves no room for a banana peel but I think we'd likely make at least the interconinental either way. But if I have to watch Canada v St Vincent Grenadine in front of 8000 people at BMO field im gonna puke

Edited November 18, 2019 by SpursFlu

[theaub]

Once you get out of the group its pretty simple to sell.  Five two-legged playoffs and you need to win all five.

[Kent]

I think it’s very unlikely that the QF will be seeded. Can anyone think of a competition where they seed for a knockout round after a group stage? I’m drawing a blank. At best is based on results from the group stage, like the CCL used to do.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

I think it’s very unlikely that the QF will be seeded. Can anyone think of a competition where they seed for a knockout round after a group stage? I’m drawing a blank. At best is based on results from the group stage, like the CCL used to do.

Everything other than the initial qualifying (obviously) of the Nations League has been based on the results in the previous stage.  The logical thing would be to continue to do that. ie. needing to blow away minnows.  

That said the logical thing is to know what the stakes of tournament are before it starts, which hasn't always been the case.  

From the announcement of the change this last July:

"The date, location and procedures for the draw which will determine the groups and match schedule for the Hexagonal will be announced later this year"

Question about that though, how do they announced that before they know who is in the Hex and who is not (the deadline is next year) unless it is just very rough window allocations. 

Edited November 18, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[grigorio]

12 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

The reasons the alternate route is not good over many reasons is basically I think everyone involved including, us, players, media etc are just completely over Canada playing all these tiny countries. We're trying to sell this to everyone and now we have 2 more years of slogging thru this. It's enough already

It's definitely leaves no room for a banana peel but I think we'd likely make at least the interconinental either way. But if I have to watch Canada v St Vincent Grenadine in front of 8000 people at BMO field im gonna puke

Tru dat. What's been the average FIFA ranking of say our last 15 opponents. Like... 115?

[Obinna]

12 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

The reasons the alternate route is not good over many reasons is basically I think everyone involved including, us, players, media etc are just completely over Canada playing all these tiny countries. We're trying to sell this to everyone and now we have 2 more years of slogging thru this. It's enough already

It's definitely leaves no room for a banana peel but I think we'd likely make at least the interconinental either way. But if I have to watch Canada v St Vincent Grenadine in front of 8000 people at BMO field im gonna puke

But if that's where we end up, then that's where we end up. It is deserved. We had the chance to solidify our Hex chances with a draw and we blew it as we decided to play (force) an attacking style, rather than being smart.

If the reports are true that Herdman asked the group if they wanted to bunker, it is hard to feel sorry for them.

First of all, what kind of manager asks his players how they want to play in a game like this? It is like asking the kids what they want to eat for dinner...

Cake and cookies you say? Okay then, have at er!

[SpursFlu]

Yah i know. I'm saying I'm not concerned as much about qualifying or not qualifying either way. I just feel the optics of the 2nd route is god awful

[Obinna]

And that is what I meant about our group being naive. It is not just Herdman, the whole group must take responsibility. 

Our team has Hex-level talent, but we still need to mature to reach our potential. 

Perhaps it is a defense mechanism to deal with the disappointment, but I am increasingly feeling we would have a very disappointing Hex campaign. Is Herdman going to go down to Mexico and Honduras and ask the group how they want to play?

Think about it now. Why should I believe he'd do anything different?

Perhaps no margin for error would force this group to grow up.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Obinna

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah i know. I'm saying I'm not concerned as much about qualifying or not qualifying either way. I just feel the optics of the 2nd route is god awful

Agreed. 

[Bison44]

13 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

The reasons the alternate route is not good over many reasons is basically I think everyone involved including, us, players, media etc are just completely over Canada playing all these tiny countries. We're trying to sell this to everyone and now we have 2 more years of slogging thru this. It's enough already

It's definitely leaves no room for a banana peel but I think we'd likely make at least the interconinental either way. But if I have to watch Canada v St Vincent Grenadine in front of 8000 people at BMO field im gonna puke

Hey if you TO guys are sick of games, spread them around..send one to Halifax or Winnipeg.  I'd be happy to watch our B team beat up a caribean team.  

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

43 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah i know. I'm saying I'm not concerned as much about qualifying or not qualifying either way. I just feel the optics of the 2nd route is god awful

We could always go for sexy, huge risk/reward friendlies as a last ditch effort to qualify for the Hex. The straight qualified UEFA teams have nothing to do in March, do they?  Kill a second optics bird with the same stone (until we get blown out). 

Come to England again, just saying...

 

[villus]

51 minutes ago, Obinna said:

And that is what I meant about our group being naive. It is not just Herdman, the whole group must take responsibility. 

Our team has Hex-level talent, but we still need to mature to reach our potential. 

Perhaps it is a defense mechanism to deal with the disappointment, but I am increasingly feeling we would have a very disappointing Hex campaign. Is Herdman going to go down to Mexico and Honduras and ask the group how they want to play?

Think about it now. Why should I believe he'd do anything different?

Perhaps no margin for error would force this group to grow up.

The group is Naive because we are still fairly young no doubt, but the organization and ability to teach and get methods right is always on the coach.  We very well may have failed if we approached the game correctly but its hard to judge when the manager doesn't do the minimum to organize us correctly.  The players for sure are not immune to criticism here but the manager took a very talented and extremely young player in Davies and gave him a complex role that doesn't play to his biggest strengths, a smart manager would have realized not to put Davies in that position and given him freedom to attack rather then put him in a position to make complex decisions of when to push forward and attack and when to stay home and defend, which is exasperated by a rather weak CB pairing.  

 

We have the most talented team we've ever had but they are young and still learning, which makes it that much more important that we hired someone who very clearly knows what he's doing and can get the message across to the players and knows when to gamble and when to stick to very common strategy.  There were a bunch of reasons screaming out for Herdman to make different decisions and he bypassed them all, which is really bad.  He chose a strategy to try and take away the ball from the Americans at home? The Americans have struggled mightily and made mistakes in possession and build up while transitioning to Berhlaters style, why on earth would you decide that allowing them possession and pressing them is a bad idea and set up trying to go toe to toe and gain possession?  We're not a great team in possession either, we're better being solid and countering.  Ugh its so frustrating to keep thinking about.  

[dyslexic nam]

20 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

We could always go for sexy, huge risk/reward friendlies as a last ditch effort to qualify for the Hex. The straight qualified UEFA teams have nothing to do in March, do they?  Kill a second optics bird with the same stone (until we get blown out). 

Come to England again, just saying...

 

If you want to be really shady, we could try to convince a high level team that they should give their B or C team a run out against our A guys.  FIFA points would be agnostic of the quality of the team our opponent chooses to name...

[xabuep2]

1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah i know. I'm saying I'm not concerned as much about qualifying or not qualifying either way. I just feel the optics of the 2nd route is god awful

The problem with the second round with home-away matches in QF, SF and final is that the minimum margin of error can leave out Canada ( remember Canada vs Guatemala in the road to Italy 1990) , this added to how irregular Hermann has been as a coach seems to be a risky route

As long as it is not known against which conference the intercontinental play off will be played, the second route does not look very appealing.