The Road to Qatar.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

26 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

That is why I am actually serious about a B Team tour of the Caribbean.  No club ill will because the clubs in question are not in season. We would leave the Euro guys across the pond and let them keep performing for their teams.  

No supporter ill will because we would be playing away (or potentially in markets that don’t normally get to see the CMNT in any form if we get some home games).  Televise or not - but the intent of this isn’t to engage the fans. It is a very utilitarian mission to make the hex.

And no player ill will because the B team would be mostly made up of players that would probably want the chance to play - or at least you could structure it that way.  You would have to be careful not to water the talent down too much but I am sure you could find a respectable squad of guys willing to do it that would be capable of taking down some lower tier national teams.   

 

It might not catch ES, but it would put us in a great spot I’f they stumbled.  And it wouldn’t have to preclude the idea of rolling the dice with our A team at some point if, for example, ES wanted to rumble. 

If you are talking nations that small, you are looking at 10 games to just make up the current difference (1.5  point range).  Unless you are taking unattached guys, the clubs are going care about a schedule with more game time than a World or Gold Cup even in the close season.  And unless you run them like dogs, it is probably a couple months.   

I like the spirit of it, but the numbers are not practical to me. 

Edit: I guess I would just concentrate on 4 boom and bust moments of glory.  

Edited November 20, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[gator]

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

They could even rent a small cruise ship, players could travel around the region on it, and supporters would get to book a 2 week cruise to support the team and offset the team’s travel costs. 

Okay, maybe that is a bit too much...

I am in a band and our sole goal is to get a gig being the house band on a cruise ship, this could work out!🌴

Edited November 20, 2019 by gator

[SthMelbRed]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

Interesting theory. I would like to see their financial statements, to see if it holds any weight.

I live here and am heavily involved in grassroots football as a player, administrator, and referee. I can attest to the veracity of those comments without looking at the financial statements. Australia is light years ahead of us in almost every aspect of football culture and infrastructure.

[adrenaline11]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

Interesting theory. I would like to see their financial statements, to see if it holds any weight.

@BuzzAndSting covered it but I'll add the hard numbers. You can find the Football Federation of Australia's financial statements here. I've done a comparison of the 2016 and 2017 numbers as the CSA hasn't released a statement for 2018 yet.

Note: The currency exchange rate used was $1 AUS = $0.9 CAD

 

The way that the numbers are added up might be a little bit different but even considering that, the difference in numbers is staggering. The FFA is making 3.5-4.5x what the CSA is bringing in and spending 4x as much.

Edited November 21, 2019 by adrenaline11

[BuzzAndSting]

16 hours ago, Obinna said:

Interesting theory. I would like to see their financial statements, to see if it holds any weight.

Here you go. 2018 FS for the FFA and 2017 FS for the CSA. The FFA had an operating revenue for 2018 of $132 416 000 AUD or about $120 045 697 CAD. The CSA had an operating revenue of $20 576 204 for 2017. I could have chosen the 2017 FS for the FFA but their FY runs July to June and the CSA FY runs January to December. Even if you look at the 2017 FS for the FFA the operating revenue is still over $100M CAD.

https://www.ffa.com.au/sites/ffa/files/2018-12/FFA FY2018 Statutory Accounts FINAL.pdf

https://www.canadasoccer.com/files/CSA_Financial_Statements_2017.pdf

Edit: thanks to @adrenaline11 for doing the math!

Edited November 21, 2019 by BuzzAndSting

[Obinna]

26 minutes ago, BuzzAndSting said:

Here you go. 2018 FS for the FFA and 2017 FS for the CSA. The FFA had an operating revenue for 2018 of $132 416 000 AUD or about $120 045 697 CAD. The CSA had an operating revenue of $20 576 204 for 2017. I could have chosen the 2017 FS for the FFA but their FY runs July to June and the CSA FY runs January to December. Even if you look at the 2017 FS for the FFA the operating revenue is still over $100M CAD.

https://www.ffa.com.au/sites/ffa/files/2018-12/FFA FY2018 Statutory Accounts FINAL.pdf

https://www.canadasoccer.com/files/CSA_Financial_Statements_2017.pdf

Edit: thanks to @adrenaline11 for doing the math!

Thanks!

[TFC2017]

What a stupid format to qualify for the Hex.

 

El Salvador and Jamaica qualifying without even needing to play against a top 15 ranked Concacaf nation and we get bumped after collecting 3 wins from 4 games against the teams ranked 2nd and 13th in Concacaf.

[Floortom]

1 minute ago, TFC2017 said:

What a stupid format to qualify for the Hex.

 

El Salvador and Jamaica qualifying without even needing to play against a top 15 ranked Concacaf nation and we get bumped after collecting 3 wins from 4 games against the teams ranked 2nd and 13th in Concacaf.

Would be great to get some sort of accountability from CONCACAF on this format - why did they think this was best option ?

[TFC2017]

I also believe the Hex format was created when the USA and Mexico were miles ahead of every other team and there'd usually be 3 teams challenging for 3rd or 4th spot but I feel Concacaf is progressing to a point where it should turn into the Octagon. Not sure if there's enough space for it to work in FIFA sanctioned windows though ...

 

I believe a top 8 of

Mexico, USA, and Costa Rica would most likely be guaranteed with 8 places, and challenging for the other 5 spots would be Canada, Honduras, Jamaica, El Salvador, Panama, Haiti, and Curacao... Hell even Guatemala and Trinidad would feel they have a good chance at making it.

[Kent]

A while back (maybe even in this thread) I did look at historical results. I don't remember exactly what I found, but it was something like every team that qualified for the World Cup in the hex era was in the top 6 in rankings at the time of the draw. There might have been an exception, but typically it would be that 5 out of the 6 top ranked teams ended up in the hex, and all of the teams that qualified was one of the top 6 teams before qualifying.

That must be the kind of thing they were looking at, but it's still utter BS in my opinion. Even the Nations League results I suppose could be used to support either side. On one hand, there were lots of upsets. On the other, the 4 teams that made it to the semi finals of League A are the 4 teams that were seeded at the top.

Edit: I found it on page 13 of this thread.

"In the last 4 World Cup cycles, the teams that won the 3.5 spots were all ranked in the top 6 based on when the seeding was taken. Only 4 teams out of the 24 top 6 teams over those 4 World Cups didn't make it to the hex (Cuba in 2014 was replaced by Panama, Panama in 2010 was replaced by El Salvador, Honduras and Jamaica in 2006 were replaced by Guatemala and Panama). I didn't go earlier because the data was getting harder to dig up"

Edited November 21, 2019 by Kent

[An Observer]

8 hours ago, Kent said:

A while back (maybe even in this thread) I did look at historical results. I don't remember exactly what I found, but it was something like every team that qualified for the World Cup in the hex era was in the top 6 in rankings at the time of the draw. There might have been an exception, but typically it would be that 5 out of the 6 top ranked teams ended up in the hex, and all of the teams that qualified was one of the top 6 teams before qualifying.

That must be the kind of thing they were looking at, but it's still utter BS in my opinion. Even the Nations League results I suppose could be used to support either side. On one hand, there were lots of upsets. On the other, the 4 teams that made it to the semi finals of League A are the 4 teams that were seeded at the top.

Edit: I found it on page 13 of this thread.

"In the last 4 World Cup cycles, the teams that won the 3.5 spots were all ranked in the top 6 based on when the seeding was taken. Only 4 teams out of the 24 top 6 teams over those 4 World Cups didn't make it to the hex (Cuba in 2014 was replaced by Panama, Panama in 2010 was replaced by El Salvador, Honduras and Jamaica in 2006 were replaced by Guatemala and Panama). I didn't go earlier because the data was getting harder to dig up"

I suspect that if you did the same fraction for Europe (13 spots currently) you may find that all of those that qualified in the past had come from the equivalent of the top 6 in Concacaf.  In Europe's case, that would be the top 22 ranked sides to produce the 13 qualifiers (using the fraction of 6/3.5).  You may have found the odd side outside that 22 that qualified, but probably not very many.

[SpursFlu]

I think the reason this system feels so terrible is because of... us, Canada. We are a complete outlier in the world of football. I bet by the time the world cup comes around We will be a top 40 team in the world. When was the last time a team jumped 40 or so fifa ranking spots in a world cup cycle? Iceland maybe? Anyways were in a massive growth period and it just so coincides with this "unique" format

Edited November 22, 2019 by SpursFlu

[RJB]

1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

 I bet by the time the world cup comes around We will be a top 40 team in the world.

Whoa... that's some statement.  Do you think we have Lenarduzzi coaching or something?

[SpursFlu]

46 minutes ago, RJB said:

Whoa... that's some statement.  Do you think we have Lenarduzzi coaching or something?

Do the math.. if we're in the HEX it means we would have won a bunch of games in the 6 months. I have no doubt we'll at least finish top 4 in thr HEX. If we don't were gonna spend the next 2 years taking a machete to Concacaf minnows game after game until we're in a game against Honduras, Costa Rica or Jamaica. Which I think we'll win. Davies and David 2 years older. So what is that like 15 games in a row without a loss. Most likely wins. We're gonna look like Andre the Giant in a battle royal just tossing people over the top ropes for the next 15 games

Edited November 22, 2019 by SpursFlu

[Bdog]

Question if we have to go the long route. Is the inter-continental playoff going to be against a randomly picked continent? It would suck to make it that far and have to play against Chile or Colombia. 

We should have a good chance if it’s New Zealand but the AFC route would probably be the biggest toss up. Assuming Qatar automatically qualifies, we’d get placed against Iran/Japan/Korea/Australia?

 

[Kent]

1 minute ago, Bdog said:

Question if we have to go the long route. Is the inter-continental playoff going to be against a randomly picked continent? It would suck to make it that far and have to play against Chile or Colombia. 

We should have a good chance if it’s New Zealand but the AFC route would probably be the biggest toss up. Assuming Qatar automatically qualifies, we’d get placed against Iran/Japan/Korea/Australia?

 

The host doesn't take up their region's spot. So Asia has 4.5 spots, plus 1 for the host. That means that Qatar getting in doesn't push down a stronger Asian team to the half spot.

To answer your original question, there will supposedly be a draw "at a later date" to determine which confederations playoff against which.

[dyslexic nam]

3 minutes ago, Kent said:

The host doesn't take up their region's spot. So Asia has 4.5 spots, plus 1 for the host. That means that Qatar getting in doesn't push down a stronger Asian team to the half spot.

To answer your original question, there will supposedly be a draw "at a later date" to determine which confederations playoff against which.

If ever I would want to benefit from the Vic factor, it would be in securing an asian playoff opponent.

After getting CONCACAF'd for years and now having to swallow this qualifying format, i would take the favour in this one small area.

[Daryn27]

22 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

If ever I would want to benefit from the Vic factor, it would be in securing an asian playoff opponent.

After getting CONCACAF'd for years and now having to swallow this qualifying format, i would take the favour in this one small area.

You would rather have CONCACAF playoff against AFC rather then OCEANIA? I’d rather face New Zealand over an Asian team.

[dyslexic nam]

8 minutes ago, Daryn27 said:

You would rather have CONCACAF playoff against AFC rather then OCEANIA? I’d rather face New Zealand over an Asian team.

That would be fine too.  Preferred in fact.  Just want to avoid CONMEBOL. 

[Bdog]

2 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

If ever I would want to benefit from the Vic factor, it would be in securing an asian playoff opponent.

After getting CONCACAF'd for years and now having to swallow this qualifying format, i would take the favour in this one small area.

If Qatar hosting means they technically get 5.5 spots if I’m reading that right, I’d be confident against UAE, Saudi Arabia, or China. Assuming we don’t choke along the way...

Also I noticed the squads of those countries are all made up of players in their domestic leagues, it’s pretty crazy to think we went this long without one. 

[Blackdude]

12 minutes ago, Bdog said:

Also I noticed the squads of those countries are all made up of players in their domestic leagues, it’s pretty crazy to think we went this long without one. 

It's mainly because in those countries, you have up to 4 foreign players, some leagues allow 5 like Australia. So, clubs are willing to pay a lot of money to keep their players home. 

[trc2014]

https://m.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/fesfut-gestiona-nacionalizacion-de-bryan-gil/660004/2019/

Per this article El Salvador is playing the US on Feb. 1.  They want out of the Hex....

[SpursFlu]

Aren't they also playing Iceland in LA around that time? If they're in the neighborhood, Iceland at BC Place sounds about right

[Obinna]

2 hours ago, Bdog said:

If Qatar hosting means they technically get 5.5 spots if I’m reading that right, I’d be confident against UAE, Saudi Arabia, or China. Assuming we don’t choke along the way...

Also I noticed the squads of those countries are all made up of players in their domestic leagues, it’s pretty crazy to think we went this long without one. 

With 4 games remaining, China is second in their semi-final round group and I don't think they are catching Syria to advance to the final round. They have a game in hand, but they are 8 points back. That's one name from Asia we can scratch off the list.

Saudis are in a tight battle with Uzbekistan, so it remains to be seen how that plays out, but UAE are languishing second from the bottom in their group. I don't know what happened there, but they are cooked as well.

The likely teams to advance are:

Japan, Korea, Syria, Australia, Iraq, Vietnam, Uzbekistan/Saudi, and Oman/Qatar.

....I suppose this place is good as any to track other confederation WCQ, so long as it pertains to who Canada may play.

Ps: why is Qatar playing qualifiers? Interesting 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Obinna

[Addona]

1 hour ago, trc2014 said:

https://m.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/fesfut-gestiona-nacionalizacion-de-bryan-gil/660004/2019/

Per this article El Salvador is playing the US on Feb. 1.  They want out of the Hex....

If they really wanted out of the hex, wouldn’t they just schedule us and “not play their best” ...