The Road to Qatar.

[dyslexic nam]

9 minutes ago, Kent said:

Going the lower route, a team could win all 14 World Cup Qualifiers vs CONCACAF competition, and win 15 out of 16 games in total, with only one loss to, say, a South American team, and fail to make it to the World Cup. That's how you know it's BS. I kinda hope that happens (to someone else of course while we qualify for the World Cup through the hex) to illustrate how bonkers this system is.

You could also win exactly half your games, move ahead on goal differential when splitting each home and away, and get to the WC.  

Not saying the format is great - I agree with folks that it blows.  I just think we are now past the time of lamenting it.  The format was announced quite a while ago now and like it or not, we are stuck with it. Might as well focus on prepping for the lower route and maybe developing a crazy plan to navigate our way into 6th.  

[Obinna]

I actually don't have a problem with the format itself, but I do have a problem with how they changed the criteria from concacaf to fifa points, and I care because that impacts Canada.

Everything else about the format is fine. I like that small island countries get more games with the lower route group stage. The more these nations play, the better for the federation. Every nation is engaged. They found a way to do this without the big dogs in the Hex being distrupted. The two-legged knockouts in the lower route should be real thrillers. If I put Canada's situation aside for a second, it actually is a cool and innovative format.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Obinna

[jtpc]

If Dominican Republic can hold El Salvador to a draw, it looks like El Salvador would lose around 6.5 points. I think they would drop to 1334, only 3 points higher than us at 1331. Imagine how nice it would be to only have 3 points to make up with friendlies.

[Obinna]

There will be a few teams (Canada) who are unlucky to make the Hex, but at least 2 Hex teams will not qualify for the WC. The Hex is not a golden ticket.,

Do we fancy ourselves to be top 3 in concacaf or best of the rest outside of the Hex? I think the results under Herdman have shown we are closer to the latter.....

Loss USA 4-1

Win USA 2-0

Loss Haiti 3-2

Win T&T 2-0

Loss Mexico 3-1

[Kent]

14 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Why? If you win 15 games vs Bad teams and then loose to an ok team. You deserve to make the world cup? Even the 4th Place team in the HEX won't be very good. All games are not created equal

I have no doubt we're the 3rd best team in Concacaf but that counts for nothing. We have to win games. If you think the best 32 teams are the 32 teams in the World Cup your in fantasy land. We have to win.. stop crying and pointing fingures.. we need to get wins. The path is still there. We just need to win games. And to be honest.. against not the greatest teams anyways

In 2014 the CONMEBOL nation that was in the inter-continental qualifier was Uruguay. Are they just an "OK" team? And my whole premise was that the format is bonkers. So I agree with you, you shouldn't get into the World Cup by winning 15 games against "bad teams". I think if you win enough games you should eventually end up playing the best teams in CONCACAF.

Whether we end up in the hex or not, or we make it to the World Cup or not, the system is ridiculous in my opinion. But I'm looking forward to see where the chips land after todays games, just so we have a better (but still very murky) picture of what lies ahead of us.

[Kent]

4 minutes ago, Obinna said:

There will be a few teams (Canada) who are unlucky to make the Hex, but at least 2 Hex teams will not qualify for the WC. The Hex is not a golden ticket.,

Do we fancy ourselves to be top 3 in concacaf or best of the rest outside of the Hex? I think the results under Herdman have shown we are closer to the latter.....

Loss USA 4-1

Win USA 2-0

Loss Haiti 3-2

Win T&T 2-0

Loss Mexico 3-1

Haiti and T&T will be in the lower qualifying, so that's 1 and 1 there. We lost to the best team in the region, which is to be expected. I think everyone is assuming Mexico wins the hex. We split the points with USA over our home and away with them, which means we did as good against the number 2 team in the region as we did against "the rest" from your list. How does this support the idea that we have a better chance in the lower route?

But yes, of course the hex isn't a golden ticket. I don't think anybody thinks it is.

[SpursFlu]

If we were in the HEX the system would be great. In fact if it wasn't for the 6th spot, which hasn't even been decided yet. The system pretty much has it right. Truth is it there are 5 or 6 teams in Concacaf that even have a hope in hell of making the world cup. Our constant ability to shit all over ourselves has us scrambling. But the good news is. Everyday we get better and the same can't be said for most of the other teams

I think CSA should dig in to some of that Mediapro $$$ and make it happen with El Salvador

Edited November 19, 2019 by SpursFlu

[Obinna]

 

13 minutes ago, Kent said:

Haiti and T&T will be in the lower qualifying, so that's 1 and 1 there. We lost to the best team in the region, which is to be expected. I think everyone is assuming Mexico wins the hex. We split the points with USA over our home and away with them, which means we did as good against the number 2 team in the region as we did against "the rest" from your list. How does this support the idea that we have a better chance in the lower route?

But yes, of course the hex isn't a golden ticket. I don't think anybody thinks it is.

Because any team that loses to Haiti and Mexico and splits with the USA is not a convincing no. 3. Actually, we didn't really split with the states. They scored 4 goals and we scored 2 (3...I stand corrected). GD counts in the Hex.

Talent wise we are arguably 3rd best in the region, but results wise we are not. That's not subjective either, we are clearly objectively not based on results.

Any belief I had that we were 3rd best in the region was blown away with the way we lost Friday.

If this was the Hex and we won 2-0 at home against the USA, but then lost 4-1 against the USA away from home, then lost 3-1 to Mexico, we would probably be on thin ice.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Obinna

[grigorio]

3 minutes ago, Obinna said:

 

Because any team that loses to Haiti and Mexico and splits with the USA is not a convincing no. 3. Actually, we didn't really split with the states. They scored 4 goals and we scored 2. GD counts in the Hex.

Talent wise we are arguably 3rd best in the region, but results wise we are not. That's not subjective either, we are clearly objectively not based on results.

We scored 3. Which is why that horrendous 4th American goal was even more of a piss-off.

[Obinna]

3 minutes ago, grigorio said:

We scored 3. Which is why that horrendous 4th American goal was even more of a piss-off.

It may as well been 4-0 lol

[Kent]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

 

Because any team that loses to Haiti and Mexico and splits with the USA is not a convincing no. 3. Actually, we didn't really split with the states. They scored 4 goals and we scored 2. GD counts in the Hex.

Talent wise we are arguably 3rd best in the region, but results wise we are not. That's not subjective either, we are clearly objectively not based on results.

Costa Rica hasn't played USA recently, but they lost to Haiti and Mexico in the Gold Cup as well. So I guess they aren't number 3 either.

It must be Jamaica, except they were in Nations League B because they lost to El Salvador in qualifying, and last night Jamaica also tied Guyana, so clearly they aren't number 3 either.

It must be Honduras, but they lost to Jamaica and Curacao of all teams in the Gold Cup and finished 4th in their group, so clearly they aren't number 3 either.

So what about El Salvador? After all, they beat Jamaica in Nations League qualifying as I mentioned above. Oh that's right, but they lost to Bermuda in Nations League qualifying as well, which sent them to League B, where they lost to Dominican Republic, and they also lost 4-0 to Honduras in Gold Cup qualifying and finishing 3rd in their group, so clearly they can't be number 3.

The reality is that it is pretty wide open from numbers 3 through 9 or 10 in CONCACAF.

Edit: I guess I could have included the USA. They lost to Mexico in the Gold Cup as well (and in a friendly since then), but they haven't gotten the chance to play Haiti recently. However, if getting a split against the USA is an indicator of a team not being number 3 in CONCACAF, then I suppose the USA getting a split against us is an indicator of them not being number 3 in CONCACAF as well.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Kent

[Obinna]

13 minutes ago, Kent said:

Costa Rica hasn't played USA recently, but they lost to Haiti and Mexico in the Gold Cup as well. So I guess they aren't number 3 either.

It must be Jamaica, except they were in Nations League B because they lost to El Salvador in qualifying, and last night Jamaica also tied Guyana, so clearly they aren't number 3 either.

It must be Honduras, but they lost to Jamaica and Curacao of all teams in the Gold Cup and finished 4th in their gropu, so clearly they aren't number 3 either.

So what about El Salvador? After all, they beat Jamaica in Nations League qualifying as I mentioned above. Oh that's right, but they lost to Bermuda in Nations League qualifying as well, which sent them to League B, where they lost to Dominican Republic, and they also lost 4-0 to Honduras in Gold Cup qualifying and finishing 3rd in their group, so clearly they can't be number 3.

The reality is that it is pretty wide open from numbers 3 through 9 or 10 in CONCACAF.

I don't think there is a clear no.3 right now. I mean, technically Jamaica is no. 3 based on their fifa ranking.

As far as opinions go, mine is that Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras and Canada should be vying for that 3rd spot, just based on who plays for what team.

But when push comes to shove and results are needed in a hex, do I fancy us to finish top 3? No, I don't.

Before Friday I would have been more bullish. Again, it is not that we lost, it is how we lost that concerns me.

This was Herdman's first test away from home in a competitive game and it was a disaster. We have to go to San Pedro Sula if we get to the Hex, don't forget. And we have to go to the Azteca and San Jose. 

What makes you think we can get results in those places after Friday? 

Edited November 19, 2019 by Obinna

[Daryn27]

1 hour ago, jtpc said:

If Dominican Republic can hold El Salvador to a draw, it looks like El Salvador would lose around 6.5 points. I think they would drop to 1334, only 3 points higher than us at 1331. Imagine how nice it would be to only have 3 points to make up with friendlies.

They are currently at 1336 points so if your correct and they draw El Salvador they would be at 1329.5 and we’d actually be ahead of them if your points that they’d lose is correct.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

Costa Rica hasn't played USA recently, but they lost to Haiti and Mexico in the Gold Cup as well. So I guess they aren't number 3 either.

It must be Jamaica, except they were in Nations League B because they lost to El Salvador in qualifying, and last night Jamaica also tied Guyana, so clearly they aren't number 3 either.

It must be Honduras, but they lost to Jamaica and Curacao of all teams in the Gold Cup and finished 4th in their gropu, so clearly they aren't number 3 either.

So what about El Salvador? After all, they beat Jamaica in Nations League qualifying as I mentioned above. Oh that's right, but they lost to Bermuda in Nations League qualifying as well, which sent them to League B, where they lost to Dominican Republic, and they also lost 4-0 to Honduras in Gold Cup qualifying and finishing 3rd in their group, so clearly they can't be number 3.

The reality is that it is pretty wide open from numbers 3 through 9 or 10 in CONCACAF.

Edit: I guess I could have included the USA. They lost to Mexico in the Gold Cup as well (and in a friendly since then), but they haven't gotten the chance to play Haiti recently. However, if getting a split against the USA is an indicator of a team not being number 3 in CONCACAF, then I suppose the USA getting a split against us is an indicator of them not being number 3 in CONCACAF as well.

This.

 

+ Let us stop talking about friendlies until 9:40pm EST tonight when we will know what needs to be done.

[kacbru]

I have never been so invested in the results of the El Salvador team thanks to this bonkers qualification process.  Maybe it's a secret ploy by OneSoccer to up the viewership for concacrap matches?  I'm a Cuba fan, DR fan, any other random minnow that can pull of an upset against a rival on any given day.  I liked the old simplicity of just cheering for Canada.

[ted]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

This was Herdman's first test away from home in a competitive game and it was a disaster.

1. We have played competitive matches away from home under Herdman. In particular, I am pretty sure that Charlotte, Denver and Pasadena are all located in the USA. 
2. No CMNT has beaten the yanks in the USA since 1957. (all results vs US)

What happened in Orlando was disappointing but far from a disaster.

 

[BFBF]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

There will be a few teams (Canada) who are unlucky to make the Hex, but at least 2 Hex teams will not qualify for the WC. The Hex is not a golden ticket.,

Do we fancy ourselves to be top 3 in concacaf or best of the rest outside of the Hex? I think the results under Herdman have shown we are closer to the latter.....

Loss USA 4-1

Win USA 2-0

Loss Haiti 3-2

Win T&T 2-0

Loss Mexico 3-1

I think what is more important is the structure. Would you rather an inconsistent team like Canada be in a 16 game knockout tourney, or a group competition where they just need to win half half the games. 

Honduras and Panama were 3 and 4 on 13 points last time. 3-4-3 records. If we could win 3 out of 5 at home and squeeze a few point away we would be in.

[Obinna]

12 minutes ago, ted said:

1. We have played competitive matches away from home under Herdman. In particular, I am pretty sure that Charlotte, Denver and Pasadena are all located in the USA. 
2. No CMNT has beaten the yanks in the USA since 1957. (all results vs US)

What happened in Orlando was disappointing but far from a disaster.

 

1. Those are neutral sites, that is not playing a competitive away match against a home opponent. That's what I was talking about.

2. I don't care that we lost, I care how we lost. Worse versions of team Canada have lost by less goals against the USA in the USA.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Obinna

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Just now, Obinna said:

1. Those are neutral sites, that is not playing a competitive away match against a home opponent. That's what I was talking about.

We won in St Kitts!

[Obinna]

8 minutes ago, BFBF said:

I think what is more important is the structure. Would you rather an inconsistent team like Canada be in a 16 game knockout tourney, or a group competition where they just need to win half half the games. 

Honduras and Panama were 3 and 4 on 13 points last time. 3-4-3 records. If we could win 3 out of 5 at home and squeeze a few point away we would be in.

The USA was also 5th that cycle.

I think we can win 3 out of 5 at home against Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica. Hard to do but very possible.

I don't know how many points we can get away from home. Unless Herdman learns from this, I don't think we get too many.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Obinna

[Obinna]

3 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

We won in St Kitts!

It was a 1-0 win that required a 36 year old Hutchinson to dig deep and score a winner in the second half. It was not very convincing and St. Kitts are not a team we'd play in the Hex anyways.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

1 hour ago, Daryn27 said:

They are currently at 1336 points so if your correct and they draw El Salvador they would be at 1329.5 and we’d actually be ahead of them if your points that they’d lose is correct.

They gained 4 with the win over Montserrat. He is correct though, they'll lose 6.5 with a draw.

[SpursFlu]

56 minutes ago, ted said:

1. We have played competitive matches away from home under Herdman. In particular, I am pretty sure that Charlotte, Denver and Pasadena are all located in the USA. 
2. No CMNT has beaten the yanks in the USA since 1957. (all results vs US)

 

Can anyone dig up footage of that game in 57? I can absolutely guarantee Davies didn't start at LB

[Kent]

10 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

They gained 4 with the win over Montserrat. He is correct though, they'll lose 6.5 with a draw.

To clarify this further @Daryn27, the 1336 points that you are quoting is what FIFA released before this window. The 4 points El Salvador won for beating Montserrat aren't included in that, so they are actually at 1340 right now, and will lose around 6.5 for a draw tonight (or nearly 19 points for a loss, or gain 6 for a win).

[Kent]

4 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Can anyone dig up footage of that game in 57? I can absolutely guarantee Davies didn't start at LB

You are right. Nobody by the name of Davies in the lineup. Also, they didn't bother with any subs! I wonder if they were allowed back then? In fact, I wondered so much I looked it up after typing that, and it looks like they weren't "Substitution during games was first permitted in 1958." Clearly this is a rule that was made to give an advantage to Americans with their deeper player pool, much like the Gold Cup rules around bringing in new players after the group stage.

Canadian line up last time we beat USA in USA, back in 1957.

Substitute reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitute_(association_football)