The Road to Qatar.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

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Edited November 16, 2019 by CanadianSoccerFan

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

11 minutes ago, Footscray said:

This is good info... because I am sure I will be following until the fat lady inevitably sings.

Seems like they are getting about 5 points a win but how many pts would ES lose if they drop a game?

What about a tie?

Wondering if an ES loss would put Canada back in the driver's seat and how a tie would impact things.  

They have to be favourites but I dont see an upset as completely out of the question.

El Salvador losses in next two games would be -20 and -18 points roughly, I believe.  -8 and -6 for a draw.

So even a win and a draw pulls them back a bit.

Any loss and we are ahead again.

A loss and they might be in the Gold Cup qualifiers, which is a new kettle of fish.

Not over certainly and either way we should be targeting friendlies that give us more than 5 points, ie. Same ranked teams. Not much to lose at this point.

Edited November 16, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[jtpc]

@Kent did some great calculations for this window on page 25 of the USA/Canada match thread.

El Salvador would gain 4 with a win over Montserrat. They would lose 8.5 with a draw and 21 with a loss.

Against Dominican Republic, El Salvador would gain 6 with a win. They would lose 6.5 with a draw and 19 with a loss.

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by jtpc

[CanadianSoccerFan]

3 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

El Salvador losses in next two games would be -20 and -18 points roughly, I believe.  -8 and -6 for a draw.

So even a win and a draw pulls them back a bit.

Any loss and we are ahead again.

A loss and they might be in the Gold Cup qualifiers, which is a new kettle of fish.

Not over certainly and either way we should be targeting friendlies that give us more than 5 points, ie. Same ranked teams. Not much to lose at this point.

If they do end up in Gold Cup Qualifiers, there is a 1/4 chance they'd play Guatemala which is no walk in the park.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

Just now, CanadianSoccerFan said:

If they do end up in Gold Cup Qualifiers, there is a 1/4 chance they'd play Guatemala which is no walk in the park.

Yes and if the win that, it will give them decent points but they would then be up against a third place team from League A.  Could be decent points or it could be Martinique.

[Stryker911]

I wouldn't even be upset if it was Panama in front of us. It is ridiculous that we could lose a spot to El Salvador. They have a couple guys playin MLS, in Thailand and the rest in their domestic league. We are so much better than them. How is it not a rule that future qualifing formats need to be announced as soon as the previous WCQ is completed?

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

1 minute ago, Stryker911 said:

I wouldn't even be upset if it was Panama in front of us. It is ridiculous that we could lose a spot to El Salvador. They have a couple guys playin MLS, in Thailand and the rest in their domestic league. We are so much better than them. How is it not a rule that future qualifing formats need to be announced as soon as the previous WCQ is completed?

It is a weird system and the timing was awful.  It will work out decently fair in long run but for this World Cup especially, it creates some "interesting" scenarios.

No real friendlies any more, if you are near the cusp, like us.

[dyslexic nam]

So if we go the lower route...

We will play either 4 or 6 games in a home and away round robin group stage (depending if we are in a group of 3 or 4). That happens in Sept, Oct, and Nov of 2020.

If we win that, we will play up to 6 more games (home and away QF, SF and F) in the knockout stage. That happens in Mar, June and Sept of 2021  

If we win that, we play 2 games agains the 4th places hex team in Oct 2021. 

If we win that, we play in the intercontinental playoff in March 2022 - and I think this has been a home and away series in the past (ie. 2 more games).  

So 14-16 competitive matches in the next 2.5 years, with everything after the group stage probably being against reasonable decent CONCACAF opposition. 

It obviously would have been better to make the hex (at this point I am basically resigned to the fact that we are out) but there actually is some upside to this. Lots of competitive matches that will help us work things out - and we quite obviously still have things to work out. And with the home and away format throughout, we should always have a realistic chance to prep for our opponents in the later rounds and get the result we need.  

If we think we are good enough to have any chance of making it through the hex, we have to be confident that we can at least do the job through the semi final and prob final of the knockout round  

Maybe I am just thinking out loud for self therapy, but I think we can do this - at least a whole lot of the process.  

Allez les Rouges!!!

[Stryker911]

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

So if we go the lower route...

We will play either 4 or 6 games in a home and away round robin group stage (depending if we are in a group of 3 or 4). That happens in Sept, Oct, and Nov of 2020.

If we win that, we will play up to 6 more games (home and away QF, SF and F) in the knockout stage. That happens in Mar, June and Sept of 2021  

If we win that, we play 2 games agains the 4th places hex team in Oct 2021. 

If we win that, we play in the intercontinental playoff in March 2022 - and I think this has been a home and away series in the past (ie. 2 more games).  

So 14-16 competitive matches in the next 2.5 years, with everything after the group stage probably being against reasonable decent CONCACAF opposition. 

It obviously would have been better to make the hex (at this point I am basically resigned to the fact that we are out) but there actually is some upside to this. Lots of competitive matches that will help us work things out - and we quite obviously still have things to work out. And with the home and away format throughout, we should always have a realistic chance to prep for our opponents in the later rounds and get the result we need.  

If we think we are good enough to have any chance of making it through the hex, we have to be confident that we can at least do the job through the semi final and prob final of the knockout round  

Maybe I am just thinking out loud for self therapy, but I think we can do this - at least a whole lot of the process.  

Allez les Rouges!!!

Also with all these easier games, we will think that we are awesome and David and Cavalinni can crush our top scoring records.

Edited November 17, 2019 by Stryker911

[dyslexic nam]

12 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

Also with all these easier games, we will think that we are awesome and David and Cavalinni can crush our top scoring records.

And if there are really easy games in the group stage (like against the bottom 2 seeded teams in a 4 team group), you still maybe have a chance to give some fringe guys a look - like the CPL defender call ups - or try some formation tweaks.  

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Rankings after Matchday 1

[Addona]

12 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

So if we go the lower route...

We will play either 4 or 6 games in a home and away round robin group stage (depending if we are in a group of 3 or 4). That happens in Sept, Oct, and Nov of 2020.

If we win that, we will play up to 6 more games (home and away QF, SF and F) in the knockout stage. That happens in Mar, June and Sept of 2021  

If we win that, we play 2 games agains the 4th places hex team in Oct 2021. 

If we win that, we play in the intercontinental playoff in March 2022 - and I think this has been a home and away series in the past (ie. 2 more games).  

So 14-16 competitive matches in the next 2.5 years, with everything after the group stage probably being against reasonable decent CONCACAF opposition. 

It obviously would have been better to make the hex (at this point I am basically resigned to the fact that we are out) but there actually is some upside to this. Lots of competitive matches that will help us work things out - and we quite obviously still have things to work out. And with the home and away format throughout, we should always have a realistic chance to prep for our opponents in the later rounds and get the result we need.  

If we think we are good enough to have any chance of making it through the hex, we have to be confident that we can at least do the job through the semi final and prob final of the knockout round  

Maybe I am just thinking out loud for self therapy, but I think we can do this - at least a whole lot of the process.  

Allez les Rouges!!!

I will say what I said when I first heard about this format... it is the single dumbest format ever devised.  To think that this is being used for WCQ is surreal...

Edited November 17, 2019 by Addona

[narduch]

12 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

So if we go the lower route...

We will play either 4 or 6 games in a home and away round robin group stage (depending if we are in a group of 3 or 4). That happens in Sept, Oct, and Nov of 2020.

If we win that, we will play up to 6 more games (home and away QF, SF and F) in the knockout stage. That happens in Mar, June and Sept of 2021  

If we win that, we play 2 games agains the 4th places hex team in Oct 2021. 

If we win that, we play in the intercontinental playoff in March 2022 - and I think this has been a home and away series in the past (ie. 2 more games).  

So 14-16 competitive matches in the next 2.5 years, with everything after the group stage probably being against reasonable decent CONCACAF opposition. 

It obviously would have been better to make the hex (at this point I am basically resigned to the fact that we are out) but there actually is some upside to this. Lots of competitive matches that will help us work things out - and we quite obviously still have things to work out. And with the home and away format throughout, we should always have a realistic chance to prep for our opponents in the later rounds and get the result we need.  

If we think we are good enough to have any chance of making it through the hex, we have to be confident that we can at least do the job through the semi final and prob final of the knockout round  

Maybe I am just thinking out loud for self therapy, but I think we can do this - at least a whole lot of the process.  

Allez les Rouges!!!

Competitive matches against Belize and Dominica won't move the needle in this country. 

These are essentially WCQ 'friendlies'

God I hate this format. 

[narduch]

7 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Rankings after Matchday 1

Basically 6 decent countries will battle for a quarter World Cup Spot. 

All so that some Caribbean minnows can be guaranteed 4 matches and so that Mexico and USA done have to take part in the semi round of the old system. 

[Yorktown FC]

This team definitely has the talent to compete for the last WC spot. The coaching staff/management is a different issue. This management team that took over on January 2018 gets the tactics and player selection wrong,  and is unable to strategize the all important FIFA ranking system.  

The loss against Haiti costs us points in the FIFA ranking, while Canada went 2-0-1 in the GC group stage. El Salvador went 1-1-1 in the Gold Cup. But different to Canada, El Salvador also sneaked in 4 more friendlies than Canada in 2019 (3W, 1L):

- March 6/2019 - El Salvador 3-1 Guatemala

- March 26/2019 - El Salvador 2-0 Peru

- June 2/2019 - El Salvador 1-0 Haiti

- June 9/2019 - El Salvador 0-2 Japan

In retrospect,  perhaps if Canada had played more friendlies.....

[dyslexic nam]

@jtpc - I am kind of continuing the discussion you raised in the other thread because at this point we aren’t actually talking about Nations League anymore - we are really focusing on WC2022 qualifying. 

This is based on the Oct rankings, but it gives a solid idea of relative position.  Once you ignore the hex teams (and us at 7) we can probably assume that the next round of 8 groups will be at least partially seeded.  That means that us and the next 7 teams will be in the top “pot” when each group is selected.  If they went with a “pot 2” approach, everything from St Kitts down to Bermuda would be the next ones to join the groups.  After that, things start thinning out even more in terms of quality. Nothing in there should scare us.  

The question then becomes whether or both they seed the QF round of the knockouts.  If so (and they probably should) we are likely paired up against a team like Nicaragua - assuming they can get the job done in a group of teams that are closer to being their peers.  It should really only be the semis where we would face a team realistically capable of surprising us.  

So if we don’t completely screw things up, we are looking at a series of games that allow us to continue to build team chemistry, followed by 3 challenging home and away series to get into the intercontinental playoff: the semi final, the final, and the playoff against the 4th place hex team.  The tune-up games in the buildup to that may not be the kind of calibre opponent we want, but that is potentially 6 hard games before the big winner take all WC spot. 

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by dyslexic nam

[Guest]

It really doesn’t help that El Salvador will be in the hex and probably finish last. I would much rather have a handful of players be there then El Salvador

[Bison44]

21 hours ago, Stryker911 said:

Also with all these easier games, we will think that we are awesome and David and Cavalinni can crush our top scoring records.

if this is the case I hope Herdman uses the extra games to work in more options all over the park and not just throw out his best 11 wherever they fit regardless of position.  David and Cav had sub par games againt the USA, too bad Akendele or Larin werent fully integrated and ready to go on the bench.  See if Fraser's great game was just a fluke or if Eustaquio can do the same thing as Piette only with better passing.  Same with the "real" LB and RB.  Adegube, Cordova or whoever the #2-3 options are need to get in camps and get into a game in case they are needed. Get Crepeau/Leutwiler a game, god forbid Borjan goes down and we havnt played anyone else in years.  I'd love for David and Cav to get some records, but better for Eustaquio, Millar, Larin, Akendele, Kaye etc to wet their beaks.  

[Addona]

54 minutes ago, Yorktown FC said:

This team definitely has the talent to compete for the last WC spot. The coaching staff/management is a different issue. This management team that took over on January 2018 gets the tactics and player selection wrong,  and is unable to strategize the all important FIFA ranking system.  

The loss against Haiti costs us points in the FIFA ranking, while Canada went 2-0-1 in the GC group stage. El Salvador went 1-1-1 in the Gold Cup. But different to Canada, El Salvador also sneaked in 4 more friendlies than Canada in 2019 (3W, 1L):

- March 6/2019 - El Salvador 3-1 Guatemala

- March 26/2019 - El Salvador 2-0 Peru

- June 2/2019 - El Salvador 1-0 Haiti

- June 9/2019 - El Salvador 0-2 Japan

In retrospect,  perhaps if Canada had played more friendlies.....

Yes, but of Canada’s two wins in their Continental championship, only 1 gave us FIFA points... think about how crazy that sentence sounds, just for a second.

[Alex]

I said it when they first announced this format: this could be the easiest path (the 7-35 one) to the World Cup by any team. Ever. 

[lamptern]

29 minutes ago, Alex said:

I said it when they first announced this format: this could be the easiest path (the 7-35 one) to the World Cup by any team. Ever. 

Is it still the easiest path if they draw a south America team for intercontinental playoff? 

[dyslexic nam]

9 minutes ago, lamptern said:

Is it still the easiest path if they draw a south America team for intercontinental playoff? 

That is the path the 4th placed hex team would face as well - if the beat the qualifier from the lower competition.  

Mexico and the US are pretty much a lock for spots 1 and 2, so if we were in the hex we would have to be 3rd to avoid the intercontinental playoff anyway - or be eliminated from contention completely. 

As much as I would love a spot in the hex, I tend to see @Alex‘s logic about the lower path being the easier one.  

[Addona]

3 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

That is the path the 4th placed hex team would face as well - if the beat the qualifier from the lower competition.  

Mexico and the US are pretty much a lock for spots 1 and 2, so if we were in the hex we would have to be 3rd to avoid the intercontinental playoff anyway - or be eliminated from contention completely. 

As much as I would love a spot in the hex, I tend to see @Alex‘s logic about the lower path being the easier one.  

No ... the math has been done many times by many people... the conclusion is always the same!!!  The Hex path is much better!!!

[lamptern]

8 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

That is the path the 4th placed hex team would face as well - if the beat the qualifier from the lower competition.  

Mexico and the US are pretty much a lock for spots 1 and 2, 

US? What happened to them in 2018 WCQ then?

[CanadianSoccerFan]

This format would be a lot more palatable with one minor tweak.  If the 7-35 winner beats the hex #4 team they should have the chance to challenge the hex #3 team for the last automatic berth.  This could easily be done by moving the 7-35 vs 4 series from November to October of 2021.  the October 2021 window is currently unused.  Then that would leave the November window available for the challenge series.  

Ultimately, it's being shut out of automatic berths that is CONCACAF's biggest crime.