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The Road to Qatar.

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1 hour ago, king1010 said:

If they're ahead of us, there is little chance they'd be open to that. All to lose, nothing to gain for them. 

The only reason they would play us is if we passed them at which point it would make no sense for us to play them.  Of course these games would need to be lined up in advance so who knows what would happen after the next set of games.  Alex’s idea about the all the marbles game right before June 2020 would make for great spectacle and probably add hundreds of subscriptions to One Soccer.

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37 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Does Martinique not being in FIFA completely take Honduras out of the equation for a big enough drop or would 2 bad results against T&T make it interesting? 

Edit - Or I guess first question, does Martinique not being in FIFA make a difference? 

Those games don't count towards FIFA rankings

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Just now, to70 said:

Honduras does play T&T in a home and away series as well as Martinique.

Yeah that was part of my initial thought (see above). I would guess two losses would be pretty devastating but wonder if draws or one draw and one loss might drag them into the mix.   

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20 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Yeah that was part of my initial thought (see above). I would guess two losses would be pretty devastating but wonder if draws or one draw and one loss might drag them into the mix.   

In the next window, if Canada beats the USA (+17.5 points) and Honduras loses to T&T (-15.6 points), Canada will be only 5 points behind them. Here is a table of all the possible results for the next window for Canada and Honduras.

  We Win Draw Loss
Canada v USA 0.2982188216 17.54452946 5.044529461 -7.455470539
Honduras vs T&T 0.6249017304 9.377456739 -3.122543261 -15.62254326
         

Ignore the "We" column (unless you are rankings calculator nerd) and the bottom empty row. I can't seem to get rid of them.

 

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OK, I'm a bit more organized now, so I can do these calculations faster. Here are the possible points for the most relevant games to us in the October window. Again, sorry about the We column. The Win/Draw/Loss columns are for the first listed team (so Canada, Honduras, El Salvador, Curacao, or Panama).

  We Win Draw Loss
Canada v USA 0.2982188216 17.54452946 5.044529461 -7.455470539
Honduras vs T&T 0.6249017304 9.377456739 -3.122543261 -15.62254326
El Salvador vs Montserrat 0.8309845899 4.225385252 -8.274614748 -20.77461475
El Salvador vs St. Lucia 0.7980056212 5.04985947 -7.45014053 -19.95014053
Curacao vs Costa Rica 0.3850441906 15.37389524 2.873895236 -9.626104764
Panama vs Mexico 0.2494770688 18.76307328 6.26307328 -6.23692672

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https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html

Points simulator

Will still be very tough to get into the top 6.

A win AND a draw versus US would probably be enough but that will be tough.

If we win once (or draw twice) vs US we would then need need EL Salvador to lose once (or draw twice) against Montserat & St. Lucia.

A draw and a loss or two losses vs US would end our hopes for all intents and purposes.

If Panama and Curacao can upset Mexico / Costa Rica respectively than that makes things even tougher for us. 

Edited by Floortom

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We need to also remember that we still have 9 months to go until the teams are confirmed for the Hex. If we manage to keep it close in the November break, we will still have a shot at making it into the hex in March. Either through the semis of the nations league or carefully selected friendlies. 

 

I know none of us has any faith in the CSA, and for good reason. But I have a real sense that Herdman and the crew are going all out for the hex. I'm cautiously optimistic about this. 

 

Not gonna lie though, Curacao are scaring the sh*t outta me though.

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1 hour ago, Floortom said:

https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html

Points simulator

Will still be very tough to get into the top 6.

A win AND a draw versus US would probably be enough but that will be tough.

If we win once (or draw twice) vs US we would then need need EL Salvador to lose once (or draw twice) against Montserat & St. Lucia.

A draw and a loss or two losses vs US would end our hopes for all intents and purposes.

If Panama and Curacao can upset Mexico / Costa Rica respectively than that makes things even tougher for us. 

At this point and the way both teams are playing, I don't think Curacao beating Costa Rica is an upset.  I'm pretty sure they're the better team at the moment.

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23 minutes ago, costarg said:

At this point and the way both teams are playing, I don't think Curacao beating Costa Rica is an upset.  I'm pretty sure they're the better team at the moment.

Curacao I would think are favourite to get in the 6 because they have a better chance to get better results that we do, as you say on form.  We match them we do better of course, so that part at least is in our hands.  

But overall that is why I was wondering how easy it would be to catch Honduras and we both go.  

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We just have to focus on our games vs the US. The rest is not in our control. I was at the game we last played the US at BMO. Think it was just before the 2014 WCQ pre Hex round. We should have won it on a Simeon Jackson goal but he shanked a tap in just 2 feet from goal. The US iirc had a full squad.  I don't know for sure if we are stronger now but the US is probably weaker than back in 2013. We just have to go for it at BMO and hope our key players have strong performances. This is going to be a massive game for the players, JH, CSA, fans, media you name it. We need to sell out BMO field.

 

Edited by Kadenge

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I just used the points simulator to see what would happen if the higher ranked team won every game, with the exception of Canada getting 4 points from USA. The end result was Canada being 2 points outside of the top 6 (behind El Salvador) and 33 points behind Honduras.

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5 hours ago, Kent said:

I just used the points simulator to see what would happen if the higher ranked team won every game, with the exception of Canada getting 4 points from USA. The end result was Canada being 2 points outside of the top 6 (behind El Salvador) and 33 points behind Honduras.

This is ok.  We'd just have to win our Nations League semifinal against Honduras or Costa Rica to get into the Hex.

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3 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

This is ok.  We'd just have to win our Nations League semifinal against Honduras or Costa Rica to get into the Hex.

Yeah, I meant to point out the simulator only goes through November. We would be positioned very well in the scenario I outlined.

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I doubt Trinidad can take points off Honduras.  They were rubbish in the Gold Cup and underwhelmed against Martinique. 

 

Might get a point in Trinidad, but on the road there's no chance.  

 

Not to mention Honduran fans are a b!tch.... literally

(finds excuse to post tweet)

 

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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On ‎9‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 2:29 PM, apbsmith said:

Yes, I do, Panama is a VERY VERY GOOD home team ( hence Auto-qualifying to the WC last year as top 3 in hex).

The 4 November friendlies are: Nicaragua, Bolivia, UAE, Suriname.  To be honest, I think they go 4-0-0, but I hope I am wrong. The games are all in Panama and much more important to Panama. I think Bolivia and/or UAE brings some of their B team, which only helps Panama get the result.  UAE's fifa ranking is currently inflated IMO, Panama is a much stronger team, especially at home.

I prefer using ELO to confirm fixtures https://www.eloratings.net/fixtures  (you can CTRL+F and search Panama)

According to ELO, Panama have 6 home friendlies to close out 2019 ( 1 september, 1 october, 4 in november). We really want Mexico to beat them in both Nation League games because there is a very good chance Panama goes 6-0-0 in their home friendlies. I think one of countless reasons Panama have scheduled so many friendlies is that they are anticipating to take the point hit vs Mexico.

Cheers.

 

It's interesting that of those 6 friendlies Panama scheduled to close out 2019, 3 of them no longer appear on ELO. It looks like their September 25th friendly against Saint Kitts and Nevis never happened as it's not listed under results, their October 10th friendly against Curacao has been deleted, and so has one of their November friendlies (November 19th against the UAE).

If ELO is accurate, Panama's only match now in the October window is Mexico away. El Salvador plays 2 away matches, one in Montserrat and the other in Saint Lucia. Hopefully Montserrat can give El Salvador a real run for their money again like they did in Nations League qualifying. Honduras plays twice, but can only earn ranking points from their match in Trinidad and Tobago. Curacao plays once, in Costa Rica. CanMNT and the US is getting closer as it's basically 2 weeks away now!

Edited by jtpc

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ELO tricked us!!!! Wikipedia wins!... Or maybe Panama pulled the plug on some friendlies after their no show performance loss to Bermuda??? 

Super interesting turn of events,

Thanks for the update.

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Posted (edited)
On 9/22/2019 at 7:06 PM, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I doubt Trinidad can take points off Honduras.  They were rubbish in the Gold Cup and underwhelmed against Martinique. 

 

Might get a point in Trinidad, but on the road there's no chance.  

 

Not to mention Honduran fans are a b!tch.... literally

(finds excuse to post tweet)

 

If you can tell that dog is a bïtch, your eyesight is incredible!

Edited by Lofty

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Haiti's playing Bolivia on October 15th after their Costa Rica match. However, Haiti's probably the one team that needs a lot of help to get there, they are 50 points back of El Salvador and they actually need to get some upsets going ot have a shot at the Hex.

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