The Road to Qatar.

[Floortom]

Essentially - a win against the US in November would likely guarantee us a Hex spot. Would be tough to see anyone passing us.

A draw does not - but it gives us two more big matches with the opportunity to pick up lots of points

A loss (assuming we lose on goal differential and dont win our group) would mean we would need El Salavdor to bomb at least one of its last two matches (vs Montserrat and DR)

[CanadianSoccerFan]

So frustrating that ES is getting all of these points for beating weak opposition.  

 

I think Curacao a is still in this. They have a good chance to win at home against Costa Rica. 

 

[Kent]

2 hours ago, king1010 said:

Two games in the November window of Nations league group B. Against Montserrat and Dominican Republic. It seems they're getting rewarded for being in Nations League B. After those games I believe they have some friendlies lined up in the new year. 

We need to take care of our own business against the states and the reassess where we sit in points relative to other teams. If we lose against the states we need to line up friendlies against beatable top 50 teams and pray for a small miracle :(. 

Don't sleep on Curacao either. 

Before Nations league started El Salvador was 30 points ahead of us and now are 3 points behind us. I think that makes it pretty hard to argue that they are being rewarded.

[Ansem]

14 minutes ago, Kent said:

Before Nations league started El Salvador was 30 points ahead of us and now are 3 points behind us. I think that makes it pretty hard to argue that they are being rewarded.

Loss in League are devastating in points. Hoping for DR to repeat or Monserrat to upset them

[king1010]

16 minutes ago, Kent said:

Before Nations league started El Salvador was 30 points ahead of us and now are 3 points behind us. I think that makes it pretty hard to argue that they are being rewarded.

Fair, but thats because they lost a game to Dominican Republic. Had they taken care of business and won out against minnows they would have been in a lot better situation for the hex, with a couple friendlies down the pipe to pad their lead. 

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by king1010

[SpursFlu]

Another thing to consider is Nations League final 4 is not a set structure. So if we tie our next game we're likely to play Honduras. Much better than potentially loosing to Mexico and going backwards. A potential win against Honduras would make the Fifa points rain and would surely make us a lock for the Hex.  I strongly believe Curacoa is the bigger threat right now

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I think Curacao is still in this. They have a good chance to win at home against Costa Rica.

I have a question that leads into a comment on that front, in regards to their participation the Nations League playoffs.

From the new FIFA formula 

"Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points:"

This applies to the Nations League semi-final and final, correct? 

[sstackho]

54 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

I have a question that leads into a comment on that front, in regards to their participation the Nations League playoffs.

From the new FIFA formula 

"Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points:"

This applies to the Nations League semi-final and final, correct? 

Yes.

Edited October 16, 2019 by sstackho

[TOCanada115]

What nobody is talking about is if El Salvador stumbles and losses to the Dominican, and finish 2nd, they will play in the qualifying games to get into the Gold Cup. It could be up to 2 more games, that if I got it right, will be worth x25. 

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

34 minutes ago, sstackho said:

Yes.

Thanks, so it means getting at least a draw Orlando will not only give us those points but will means we will be playing two games (3rd place game even if we lose) in June with a x25 co-efficient again and no risk.  (Face a Mexico team that does not care, stranger things have happened).

El Salvador definitely will not have that and even if they continue to beat the teams in their group, will then only have 4 friendly slots left before the June deadline. (with x10 co-efficient)  

Curacao has a chance obviously, though their group is still can be lost (Costa Rica just need to hold them away and then beat Haiti by a couple at home, I believe).  Whoever comes out looks to be the worst seeded in the Nations League playoffs.  But will still have a chance for some big points. 

We have the best points and goal difference right now for seeding but we have 1 game to Mexico's (probably) and Honduras' (definitely - already qualified ) 2.  And our one is harder than any of theirs on paper. 

Lots of fun permutations. 

 

Edit - Including the one TOCanada115 mentioned above that I missed.

Edited October 16, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

46 minutes ago, TOCanada115 said:

What nobody is talking about is if El Salvador stumbles and losses to the Dominican, and finish 2nd, they will play in the qualifying games to get into the Gold Cup. It could be up to 2 more games, that if I got it right, will be worth x25. 

Thinking that through, they would lose a lot more points in order to finish second, than they would gain wouldn't they?  

I guess it depends, too much math too quick for me. Teams like Haiti, T&T.  or even Costa Rica would be there in the second round of those playoffs. But the first round will be against some very low ranked teams. 

Edit- Would they get points for both legs?

Edited October 16, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[SthMelbRed]

11 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Thinking that through, they would lose a lot more points in order to finish second, than they would gain wouldn't they?  

I guess it depends, too much math too quick for me. Teams like Haiti, T&T.  or even Costa Rica would be there in the second round of those playoffs. But the first round will be against some very low ranked teams. 

Edit- Would they get points for both legs?

Would these qualification matches even come up before the June cut-off for the Hex?

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

3 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

Would these qualification matches even come up before the June cut-off for the Hex?

Yes. 

They are in the March and June windows.

At least according to this

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_CONCACAF_Gold_Cup_Qualifiers

Edit - More officially here  

"Gold Cup Qualifiers (4 teams): After Concacaf Nations League group stage play in November 2019, the third-place finishers in League A, the second-place finishers in League B and the first-place finishers in League C will advance to a two-round qualifier, to be played in March and June of 2020."

https://concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-nations-league-to-serve-as-pathway-for-2021-gold-cup

Edited October 16, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[jtpc]

Should El Salvador win their group, at least we know that once November is over, they won't have any more matches with a 25 multiplier since League B doesn't have any kind of a championship playoff round.

Curacao's match with Costa Rica a few days ago was going to earn them 15 points if they won, so I would imagine that a similar number of points will be on the table again when they play each other next month. It seems like we are about 16 points ahead of Curacao now, so even if Curacao did defeat Costa Rica at home, it wouldn't be ideal but we would still be pretty much even, and we'd have the chance to stay ahead of them when we play our November match in Orlando.

[Kent]

6 hours ago, TOCanada115 said:

What nobody is talking about is if El Salvador stumbles and losses to the Dominican, and finish 2nd, they will play in the qualifying games to get into the Gold Cup. It could be up to 2 more games, that if I got it right, will be worth x25. 

It has been alluded to, and I haven’t run the numbers or looked up their potential opponents in that playoff, but losing that game would almost definitely cost them points even after factoring in two more wins.

Games against teams ranked significantly lower than you are high risk, low reward. That’s why I brought up earlier the points Canada made up on El Salvador. Our win against the USA was worth more than their two wins combined this window. And their loss to Dominican Republic cost them more than two wins worth of points as well.

So yes, by playing poorly enough they will get more chances with the x25 multiplier, but it would be a net loss, probably even if they managed to meet Jamaica and beat them.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

7 hours ago, Kent said:

It has been alluded to, and I haven’t run the numbers or looked up their potential opponents in that playoff, but losing that game would almost definitely cost them points even after factoring in two more wins.

Games against teams ranked significantly lower than you are high risk, low reward. That’s why I brought up earlier the points Canada made up on El Salvador. Our win against the USA was worth more than their two wins combined this window. And their loss to Dominican Republic cost them more than two wins worth of points as well.

So yes, by playing poorly enough they will get more chances with the x25 multiplier, but it would be a net loss, probably even if they managed to meet Jamaica and beat them.

As with any kind of qualifying this is increasingly complicated, apparently. 

But one question I now have:  is it two more wins or four? - potentially for El Salvador.  The two rounds of playoffs are both 2-legged. 

 

-  If they finished 2nd in their group  El Salavador would play a team that won their group in League C in the first round

"The four winners of Nations League C will face the four runner-ups of Nations League B, played as two-legged ties in March 2020. The four winners will advance to the second round." (Now what I don't know is whether than draw has yet to be made or teams will be slotted in) 

So realistically, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, Bonaire, Guatemala, or Guadeluope.  Guatemala being worth the most, currently - ranked 133rd - and Bonaire and Guadeloupe worth nothing. 

 

- If they win, they would face a team from our League A

"The four first round winners will face the four third-place teams from Nations League A, played as two-legged ties in June 2020. The four winners will qualify for the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup." 

So likely Cuba, Panama, Bermuda, Martinique, T&T, Costa Rica or Haiti.  Costa Rica, I guess being the big worry but they have a game in hand on Haiti and then play them at home in the group.  Martinique being another that yields no points. 

 

Overall, a whole lot of risk on that path - in addition to the DR loss point drop -  even if they get points for both legs of both playoffs.  And the good news is they will never face Jamaica.  But it does start to show some cracks in a system where rankings and direct qualifications are being used for the same tournament. 

[apbsmith]

As long as we keep taking care of business ...

El Salvador will get Concacafed with the teams they play if they finished 2nd, I can feel it. 

Nobody ranked #7-#15 wants Canada in that side. 

[Kent]

8 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

As with any kind of qualifying this is increasingly complicated, apparently. 

But one question I now have:  is it two more wins or four? - potentially for El Salvador.  The two rounds of playoffs are both 2-legged. 

 

-  If they finished 2nd in their group  El Salavador would play a team that won their group in League C in the first round

"The four winners of Nations League C will face the four runner-ups of Nations League B, played as two-legged ties in March 2020. The four winners will advance to the second round." (Now what I don't know is whether than draw has yet to be made or teams will be slotted in) 

So realistically, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, Bonaire, Guatemala, or Guadeluope.  Guatemala being worth the most, currently - ranked 133rd - and Bonaire and Guadeloupe worth nothing. 

 

- If they win, they would face a team from our League A

"The four first round winners will face the four third-place teams from Nations League A, played as two-legged ties in June 2020. The four winners will qualify for the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup." 

So likely Cuba, Panama, Bermuda, Martinique, T&T, Costa Rica or Haiti.  Costa Rica, I guess being the big worry but they have a game in hand on Haiti and then play them at home in the group.  Martinique being another that yields no points. 

 

Overall, a whole lot of risk on that path - in addition to the DR loss point drop -  even if they get points for both legs of both playoffs.  And the good news is they will never face Jamaica.  But it does start to show some cracks in a system where rankings and direct qualifications are being used for the same tournament. 

Yes, good points. I didn’t realize it was two legged ties. And I totally spaced out on the fact it’s not League B teams they would be playing.

Thats what I get for rushing a response right before bed.

Edited October 17, 2019 by Kent

[CanadianSoccerFan]

I'm assuming we're not doing a November friendly.  If we did, the only CONCACAF teams that are FIFA members available to play the back end of the next window are Guatemala, British Virgin Islands, and Curacao.  Friendly victories with a 10 multiplier would get us approximately 1.4 points against BVI, 2.8 against Guatemala, and 4.7 against Curacao. 

Curacao is not worth the risk. 

Guatemala would likely shiver to death in the November weather.

 

Edit: Now that I think of it, friendlies outside of the FIFA windows only carry a 5 multiplier but imagine if we just played a shedload of them.  For instance, invite Tahiti to Vancouver for a couple of weeks and play them every day.  Alternatively do a barnstorming tour of the Caribbean playing hopeless sides day after day.  Just rotate through offseason CPL and MLS players.  We could use a squad of 50 offseason CPL/MLS guys and pick up a FIFA point every game.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2019 by CanadianSoccerFan

[SpecialK]

1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I'm assuming we're not doing a November friendly.  If we did, the only CONCACAF teams that are FIFA members available to play the back end of the next window are Guatemala, British Virgin Islands, and Curacao.  Friendly victories with a 10 multiplier would get us approximately 1.4 points against BVI, 2.8 against Guatemala, and 4.7 against Curacao. 

Curacao is not worth the risk. 

Guatemala would likely shiver to death in the November weather.

 

Edit: Now that I think of it, friendlies outside of the FIFA windows only carry a 5 multiplier but imagine if we just played a shedload of them.  For instance, invite Tahiti to Vancouver for a couple of weeks and play them every day.  Alternatively do a barnstorming tour of the Caribbean playing hopeless sides day after day.  Just rotate through offseason CPL and MLS players.  We could use a squad of 50 offseason CPL/MLS guys and pick up a FIFA point every game.

 

 

Curaçao not worth the risk?? If we can beat the US, we should be able to beat them. We shouldn’t be afraid to play teams. We should be playing more games, I hope the CSA uses the US win as a   launching  point ! We can’t lose this  momentum. 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

7 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

Curaçao not worth the risk?? If we can beat the US, we should be able to beat them. We shouldn’t be afraid to play teams. We should be playing more games, I hope the CSA uses the US win as a   launching  point ! We can’t lose this  momentum. 

Of course we're able to beat them.  That's not the point.  They have everything to gain against us and we have everything to lose.  This is purely about the ranking math, not the heart.

[Floortom]

1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

 

 

Edit: Now that I think of it, friendlies outside of the FIFA windows only carry a 5 multiplier but imagine if we just played a shedload of them.  For instance, invite Tahiti to Vancouver for a couple of weeks and play them every day.  Alternatively do a barnstorming tour of the Caribbean playing hopeless sides day after day.  Just rotate through offseason CPL and MLS players.  We could use a squad of 50 offseason CPL/MLS guys and pick up a FIFA point every game.

 

 

It speaks to the awfulness of the system that I actually think this is a good idea and could work. 😂

Of course the CSA cash constraints would be an issue and we would be seen as a joke for doing it 

[SkuseisLoose]

Even if we could financially do it there’d be no chance that clubs would release players. Though it would be fun to shithouse are way to the hex.

[CanadaFan123]

A friendly next window is a must I feel.  Whether we make the hex or not we still need the match experience... playing one match windows isn't realistic/helpful as it will (likely) never happen in WCQ.  There's no point in deluding ourselves and win or lose we should be adjusting/gaining experience.  

[BuzzAndSting]

9 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

A friendly next window is a must I feel.  Whether we make the hex or not we still need the match experience... playing one match windows isn't realistic/helpful as it will (likely) never happen in WCQ.  There's no point in deluding ourselves and win or lose we should be adjusting/gaining experience.  

Well we just played a one match window and had a pretty good result.