Jump to content

The Road to Qatar.


Binky

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, xabuep2 said:

The problem with the second round with home-away matches in QF, SF and final is that the minimum margin of error can leave out Canada ( remember Canada vs Guatemala in the road to Italy 1990) , this added to how irregular Hermann has been as a coach seems to be a risky route

As long as it is not known against which conference the intercontinental play off will be played, the second route does not look very appealing.

Does it matter though? Even if we play in the Hex we still finish fourth, if we are lucky. I definitely don't have confidence we can finish top 3 if we aren't willing to be more pragmatic.

Perhaps Herdman will show us he can do that between now and fall, but I can't put my faith in "maybes".

As things stand now we finish outside the top 3 in the Hex, even with our level of talent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, xabuep2 said:

The problem with the second round with home-away matches in QF, SF and final is that the minimum margin of error can leave out Canada ( remember Canada vs Guatemala in the road to Italy 1990) , this added to how irregular Hermann has been as a coach seems to be a risky route

As long as it is not known against which conference the intercontinental play off will be played, the second route does not look very appealing.

I remember that well, we got CONCACAFed with an awful penalty in Guatemala then gave up away goals at home before we started a failed comeback, I'm still bitter John Fitzgerald didn't go in earlier!  https://www.canadasoccer.com/?gid=286&t=match

Edited by gator
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

If you want to be really shady, we could try to convince a high level team that they should give their B or C team a run out against our A guys.  FIFA points would be agnostic of the quality of the team our opponent chooses to name...

Unfortunately FIFA is a shady and corrupt system, so you almost have to do this to avoid getting gamed by all parties involved.  We absolutely should be looking to find a good team that would be willing to play an experimental side.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

But if that's where we end up, then that's where we end up. It is deserved.

If you said something like "you have to play with the hand you are dealt" I would agree. Saying we deserve what we get is a half truth at best. Our ranking is not an accurate reflection of where we are in my opinion. Yes, we have had a couple chances to rectify that (Haiti and maaaybe the USA away game) but it's not exactly fair to say that if we were a top 6 team we should have been able to beat the number 2 team in the region back to back. Sure, on one hand we haven't been playing friendlies which we could have done to increase (or decrease) our ranking. But we also didn't have the benefit of a Caribbean Championship or Central American championship tournament, which plays a roll in where we started out. We also had the handicap of having a couple of competitive wins (this year alone) stricken from the record because they were against non-FIFA nations.

We lose a game against USA in USA, and that means we don't deserve to be in the hex? El Salvador loses to Dominican Republic in Nations League, and Bermuda in Nations League qualifying, but they (likely) deserve to be in the hex? We lose a game against Haiti and that means we don't deserve to be in the hex? Costa Rica loses a game against Haiti in the Gold Cup, and also tied them 2 times in the Nations League, but Costa Rica still deserves to be in the hex? And Haiti doesn't deserve to be in the hex? I'm sorry, but none of this is deserved.

But yes, the team has to deal with it and play who is put in front of them. We'll have to cheer against El Salvador and get some wins in friendlies, and see where we end up.

To your point about us finishing 4th at best if we were in the hex, I do think we would have a shot to finish ahead of anyone (though not necessarily everyone) outside of Mexico, but you got me curious. I checked our last home and away results against the top 5 teams in the region. In those 10 games we got 10 points. 10 points hasn't been good enough to finish 4th in the hex in the last 4 World Cup qualifying cycles (I didn't look further back than that), so you do have a point there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Kent said:

I think it’s very unlikely that the QF will be seeded. Can anyone think of a competition where they seed for a knockout round after a group stage? I’m drawing a blank. At best is based on results from the group stage, like the CCL used to do.

The Concacaf nations league

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Kent said:

If you said something like "you have to play with the hand you are dealt" I would agree. Saying we deserve what we get is a half truth at best. Our ranking is not an accurate reflection of where we are in my opinion. Yes, we have had a couple chances to rectify that (Haiti and maaaybe the USA away game) but it's not exactly fair to say that if we were a top 6 team we should have been able to beat the number 2 team in the region back to back. Sure, on one hand we haven't been playing friendlies which we could have done to increase (or decrease) our ranking. But we also didn't have the benefit of a Caribbean Championship or Central American championship tournament, which plays a roll in where we started out. We also had the handicap of having a couple of competitive wins (this year alone) stricken from the record because they were against non-FIFA nations.

We lose a game against USA in USA, and that means we don't deserve to be in the hex? El Salvador loses to Dominican Republic in Nations League, and Bermuda in Nations League qualifying, but they (likely) deserve to be in the hex? We lose a game against Haiti and that means we don't deserve to be in the hex? Costa Rica loses a game against Haiti in the Gold Cup, and also tied them 2 times in the Nations League, but Costa Rica still deserves to be in the hex? And Haiti doesn't deserve to be in the hex? I'm sorry, but none of this is deserved.

But yes, the team has to deal with it and play who is put in front of them. We'll have to cheer against El Salvador and get some wins in friendlies, and see where we end up.

To your point about us finishing 4th at best if we were in the hex, I do think we would have a shot to finish ahead of anyone (though not necessarily everyone) outside of Mexico, but you got me curious. I checked our last home and away results against the top 5 teams in the region. In those 10 games we got 10 points. 10 points hasn't been good enough to finish 4th in the hex in the last 4 World Cup qualifying cycles (I didn't look further back than that), so you do have a point there.

I appreciate where you are coming from.

Perhaps somewhere between "deserved" and "you must play the hand you were dealt" is most fair.

True we were dealt a shitty hand compared to El Salvador, because we had no central American Championship to collect points, but everything else was in our control, especially the lack of friendlies.

If I recall correctly, El Salvador had some good friendly results over the last 24 months. Meanwhile, we chose not to play in that time and perhaps that decsion was informed by the concacaf points, but we don't know that. I can just as easily point to the lack of friendlies over the past 3 or 4 cycles and argue this is nothing new with Canada. If you don't play you don't earn points, it's as simple as that. 

In my view, the CSA reep what they sow. For a long, long time they did not play enough friendlies, for whatever reason, and now they must play friendlies to dig themselves out of the hole they are in, which is in part due to not having played enough friendlies in the first place. Is that not poetic justice? At the very least, it is ironic.

 

Edited by Obinna
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once the format was announced, playing friendlies became a dangerous game. There is reward, but also just as much risk. I saw someone (can't remember who) comment recently that we should have been playing friendlies and experimenting with other players, but now it's too late to experiment and every friendly is a must win. Every friendly is a must win ever since the format was announced. You point to El Salvador as an example of why we should have played friendlies. But it's possible that playing friendlies would have eliminated us a while ago already, had we played them. A counter example to El Salvador's story is Panama.

Panama was in the last World Cup, just last year. Since the World Cup they played the following friendlies.
 

Tue 11/09/18 FRI Panama 0 - 2 Venezuela View events More info
Fri 12/10/18 FRI Japan 3 - 0 Panama View events More info
Tue 16/10/18 FRI Korea Republic 2 - 2 Panama View events More info
Fri 16/11/18 FRI Honduras 1 - 0 Panama View events More info
Tue 20/11/18 FRI Panama 1 - 2 Ecuador View events More info
Sun 27/01/19 FRI United States 3 - 0 Panama View events More info
Sat 23/03/19 FRI Brazil 1 - 1 Panama View events More info
Mon 03/06/19 FRI Colombia 3 - 0 Panama
Fri 07/06/19 FRI Uruguay 3 - 0 Panama

Maybe if Panama had taken a page out of our book and not played those friendlies they would be in a hex position. They would have gained points for the draw with Brazil, and I assume they would have for Korea as well, but otherwise they dropped points in the other 7 games. And it's hard to argue that these friendlies even did the job of preparing them for competitive games more than Canada. We lost to the USA. Panama lost to Bermuda (in addition to Mexico of course, but we would have too). In the Gold Cup we both came second in the group behind one of the top 2 CONCACAF teams, and then got knocked out of the Gold Cup at the QF stage.

In terms of maximizing our chances to get into the hex I don't think the friendlies debate is as black and white as most people seem to think. Even with playing minnows, as we have seen in nations league, upsets can happen, and they are very punitive in the rankings. However, with where we stand now (or more accurately, where we will stand after tomorrow assuming the favourites win their matches) it has become a black and white issue the rest of the way. We need friendlies in 2020.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rotate out the top guys if they get bored with the national team (which I dont think will happen).  Plenty of guys who cant get a game you can work in.  A couple CPL/USL guys could use a boost even with an invite, maybe let Crepeau have a couple starts  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the note of friendlies, as it most likely (99 % certainty) will be mandatory come the new year (CSA would be bloody stupid/lunatic to not schedule any given the stakes of somehow cracking the Hexagonal round) and likely against solid competition, I am wondering if everything needs to be done by Mar. or will we have a chance to schedule games in Mar. + the Fifa date in June, which at times is at the very end of May to garner up Fifa Points for the Fifa World Rankings release date in June , as that will determine our odds of whether we made the Hex or not!!!!.... Like all of us, bites me to see that bloody El Salvador can get away with cracking the final Hex Spot ahead of ourselves without having many if any player of notoriety!!!!!! 😡.... With all respect, I'm sure they have some solid quality players in there, but none who is well-known across the fútbol world, let alone Concacaf!!!!..

Mean I am no expert on their player pool, but from the little bit I have seen/heard of that, there are no players familiar to the average fútbol fan out there or Concacaf followers!... The few Salvadorean people I have chatted with about fútbol, have always indicted that there is nothing special within their national teams and are big time underachievers

Someone pointed out that most of their player pool is domestic based , with a couple in MLS and a few in Thailand (which seems to be an interesting league as someone from outside of here commented to me last night).. 

Just need a little clarity about our Hex implications!!!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Kent said:

Once the format was announced, playing friendlies became a dangerous game. There is reward, but also just as much risk. I saw someone (can't remember who) comment recently that we should have been playing friendlies and experimenting with other players, but now it's too late to experiment and every friendly is a must win. Every friendly is a must win ever since the format was announced. You point to El Salvador as an example of why we should have played friendlies. But it's possible that playing friendlies would have eliminated us a while ago already, had we played them. A counter example to El Salvador's story is Panama.

Panama was in the last World Cup, just last year. Since the World Cup they played the following friendlies.
 

Tue 11/09/18 FRI Panama 0 - 2 Venezuela View events More info
Fri 12/10/18 FRI Japan 3 - 0 Panama View events More info
Tue 16/10/18 FRI Korea Republic 2 - 2 Panama View events More info
Fri 16/11/18 FRI Honduras 1 - 0 Panama View events More info
Tue 20/11/18 FRI Panama 1 - 2 Ecuador View events More info
Sun 27/01/19 FRI United States 3 - 0 Panama View events More info
Sat 23/03/19 FRI Brazil 1 - 1 Panama View events More info
Mon 03/06/19 FRI Colombia 3 - 0 Panama
Fri 07/06/19 FRI Uruguay 3 - 0 Panama

Maybe if Panama had taken a page out of our book and not played those friendlies they would be in a hex position. They would have gained points for the draw with Brazil, and I assume they would have for Korea as well, but otherwise they dropped points in the other 7 games. And it's hard to argue that these friendlies even did the job of preparing them for competitive games more than Canada. We lost to the USA. Panama lost to Bermuda (in addition to Mexico of course, but we would have too). In the Gold Cup we both came second in the group behind one of the top 2 CONCACAF teams, and then got knocked out of the Gold Cup at the QF stage.

In terms of maximizing our chances to get into the hex I don't think the friendlies debate is as black and white as most people seem to think. Even with playing minnows, as we have seen in nations league, upsets can happen, and they are very punitive in the rankings. However, with where we stand now (or more accurately, where we will stand after tomorrow assuming the favourites win their matches) it has become a black and white issue the rest of the way. We need friendlies in 2020.

Good post and counter argument.

It is true that you can lose points, as Panama shows us.

But that doesn't change the fact the Salvadorians are in a Hex position and we aren't. And they are in 6th partially because they played friendlies and did well in them.

We are in 7th because we didn't win our games and didn't play many games to win in the first place.

Either way, not playing and then not winning when we did play, both were in our control. That's a bigger part of our failure than being dealt a bad lot, if you ask me.

Your earlier post pointed out that Canada never had Central American Championship games to boost our ranking like El Salvador, but Panama had those games too....and look where they are! 

So I think a lack of competitive games with a high co-efficent is an excuse. 

Edited by Obinna
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ansem said:

We were able to beat the 23rd overall (USA)

Let's go after

Wales (24)

Northern Ireland (34)

Ireland (36)

Iceland (40)

Wales are not having a good euro qualifying. They could just as easily be out of form as they could use us to vent their frustrations. And any team with Garath Bale in a one of scares me.

Northern Ireland will be resolute and organized, sound familiar?

Ireland I am not too familiar with, but I think they are having a bad euro qualifying too as far as I recall. They'd play more open against us than NI, I would think.

Iceland I think is a toss up that could go either way.

All interesting suggestions though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How about playing some Conmebol FAs, save for the top 4, obviously as I would not be comfortable myself at all, especially with everything that is at stakes between now and next June!!!.... The top 4 I consider to be the Brazils, Argentinas, Uruguruays & Colombias of the world, lol... This is just based on current form/performance plus gut feeling as well, lol... Being a descendant from two Conmebol nations, I am pretty familiar with their national teams and generally follow the Copa Américas + WCQ in the region!!!!

I think Bolivia is a perfect opponent of the Conmebol crop and hate to say, but beatable (I think we got the group of players to beat a side of that level) unless we play in La Paz, which likely go horribly long as I don't think our players would be up to handle the massive sea level altitude there, lmfao

The middleweights from the region would be a good test in themselves, but likely risky, but would be flattered to play someone like say Venezuela, Ecuador, Perú, Chile or Paraguay.... If it is a home friendly, I think we can give them a real run for their money to some of these teams, but if it's away or even in neutral venue, some of these teams would scare me (as some have solid attack and pretty tactical defensively) , but with our s***tty defence, especially away from home, would not be 100 % confident!!!... Lots of quick wingers, technical players in these sides

That's my suggestion for friendlies.... Playing anyone within our region I guess would do, say someone like Jamaica, T & T, Haiti, Curaçao, El Salvador , Guatemala, Panama, Costa Rica would do the trick!!!!... 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CANMNT_SUPERFAN said:

How about playing some Conmebol FAs, save for the top 4, obviously as I would not be comfortable myself at all, especially with everything that is at stakes between now and next June!!!.... The top 4 I consider to be the Brazils, Argentinas, Uruguruays & Colombias of the world, lol... This is just based on current form/performance plus gut feeling as well, lol... Being a descendant from two Conmebol nations, I am pretty familiar with their national teams and generally follow the Copa Américas + WCQ in the region!!!!

I think Bolivia is a perfect opponent of the Conmebol crop and hate to say, but beatable (I think we got the group of players to beat a side of that level) unless we play in La Paz, which likely go horribly long as I don't think our players would be up to handle the massive sea level altitude there, lmfao

The middleweights from the region would be a good test in themselves, but likely risky, but would be flattered to play someone like say Venezuela, Ecuador, Perú, Chile or Paraguay.... If it is a home friendly, I think we can give them a real run for their money to some of these teams, but if it's away or even in neutral venue, some of these teams would scare me (as some have solid attack and pretty tactical defensively) , but with our s***tty defence, especially away from home, would not be 100 % confident!!!... Lots of quick wingers, technical players in these sides

That's my suggestion for friendlies.... Playing anyone within our region I guess would do, say someone like Jamaica, T & T, Haiti, Curaçao, El Salvador , Guatemala, Panama, Costa Rica would do the trick!!!!... 

 

 

Bolivia would be a great team if we could host them in Canada.  All of the other teams would not be a good idea imo, even the teams between Bolivia and the best teams are very good and would give us a lot of problems.  I'd rather we find a European team, the Conmenbol teams regularly beat up on Mexico and Paraguay, Venezuela and Ecuador would be the worst of the bunch and their ranking is probably weaker then their actual strength because they have to play official games against other Conmebol nations all the time, whereas in Europe its inflated because they get official games against minnows to beat up on.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Obinna said:

 

We are in 7th because we didn't win our games and didn't play many games to win in the first place.

 

Not calling you out individually by any means, just wanted to comment on that one line in general.

To be fair to the CSA, and trust me I can be critical towards them at times lol, we got thrown a major curveball with Fifa rankings vs the now defunct CONCACAF rankings. 

We played 4 games and got 4 wins that counted for 0 Fifa points...

2 wins vs FG, 1 win vs Martinique and 1 win vs T&T in a closed door friendly.

Even when you remove the closed door friendly win, we were still top 6 in CONCACAF rankings before it became known it would be top 6 Fifa rankings. 

Sure, some blame does fall on CSA but honestly more should fall on the federation for the lack of transparency and super late notice of the "official" qualifying process.

CSA has a valid legal argument the T&T friendly would have been official if they knew before,  plus a handful of other valid legal arguments. It's pretty clear the qualifying process is unjust and not just for Canada. 

Anyways nothing you can do now, and it was great that we split a home and home with the US, as much as taking the away L sucked. Even with all the qualifying farce, at least the lads gave themselves a chance, but were unsuccessful (so far). It was a big ask, anyways it's not over, they will keep fighting, regardless of the WCQ path. 

I think the young core including Herdman got a much needed awakening/realization how difficult it is to get a result on the road in our region, long term, this will go a long way for us.  Adjustments will be made going forward and I am confident in that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First things first as we all know, the qualifying system makes 0 sense at all, is completely unfair and they didn’t even let teams know of the format until it was too late. Taking all that away, Canada’s record in real games since 2018 World Cup is 9 wins 3 losses 0 ties .... I don’t think that justifies us already being eliminated from the World Cup.

4-0-0 vs USVI, St Kitts, Dominica and French Guinea (CNLQ)

2-2-0 vs Martinique Mexico Cuba Haiti (gold cup) 

3-1-0 vs Cuba and USA (CNL Group)

One thing that points out to me though is in terms of decent opponents Canada is 1-3-0. That is certainly an issue, but does that justify us not qualifying already?? We’ve played 1 game vs a team ranked 3-10 in concacaf and we’re out of the World Cup? We should be playing Jamaica Costa Rica Panama Honduras Trinidad Haiti and Curaçao El Salvador to see if we are the best of the rest. This was not a fair way to determine who qualifies.

All This was BS to make it easy for USA and Mexico to qualify and to give them a home and home 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, canadafan101 said:

First things first as we all know, the qualifying system makes 0 sense at all, is completely unfair and they didn’t even let teams know of the format until it was too late. Taking all that away, Canada’s record in real games since 2018 World Cup is 9 wins 3 losses 0 ties .... I don’t think that justifies us already being eliminated from the World Cup.

4-0-0 vs USVI, St Kitts, Dominica and French Guinea (CNLQ)

2-2-0 vs Martinique Mexico Cuba Haiti (gold cup) 

3-1-0 vs Cuba and USA (CNL Group)

One thing that points out to me though is in terms of decent opponents Canada is 1-3-0. That is certainly an issue, but does that justify us not qualifying already?? We’ve played 1 game vs a team ranked 3-10 in concacaf and we’re out of the World Cup? We should be playing Jamaica Costa Rica Panama Honduras Trinidad Haiti and Curaçao El Salvador to see if we are the best of the rest. This was not a fair way to determine who qualifies.

All This was BS to make it easy for USA and Mexico to qualify and to give them a home and home 

 

Qualifying isn't over, it hasn't even started yet!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Obinna said:

2 big games today for scoreboard watching. If one of two games go our way, we're 1 step closer to the Hex.

Need Cuba to get a result against the US

And/or

Need DR to get a result against El Salvador

DR is far more likely to do us a favour. I put Cuba’s chances of holding the US at pretty much nil.  

And your previous post is right - as much as people dislike the lower route to WCQ, the reality is that we aren’t eliminated, even if results tonight go against us (as they no doubt will).  On the lower pathway, I think we are good to at least the semi finals of the knockout stage. That means winning 3 challenging home and always to get to the intercontinental playoff.  We can do this.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going the lower route, a team could win all 14 World Cup Qualifiers vs CONCACAF competition, and win 15 out of 16 games in total, with only one loss to, say, a South American team, and fail to make it to the World Cup. That's how you know it's BS. I kinda hope that happens (to someone else of course while we qualify for the World Cup through the hex) to illustrate how bonkers this system is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why? If you win 15 games vs Bad teams and then loose to an ok team. You deserve to make the world cup? Even the 4th Place team in the HEX won't be very good. All games are not created equal

I have no doubt we're the 3rd best team in Concacaf but that counts for nothing. We have to win games. If you think the best 32 teams are the 32 teams in the World Cup your in fantasy land. We have to win.. stop crying and pointing fingures.. we need to get wins. The path is still there. We just need to win games. And to be honest.. against not the greatest teams anyways

Edited by SpursFlu
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...