CPL new teams speculation

[toontownman]

Two teams in sask could definitely work. Possibly it might be better to start with one though rather than both at the same time. Although the instant rivalry might well be a draw rather than confusing fans that would change loyalties a couple of years down the line. 

I can't see the league growing to 16 for 2020 but 10-12 maybe. Who knows though.

Guelph 

Moncton 

St.Johns

Fraser Valley/Kelowna 

Saskatoon 

Regina 

Laval

Ottawa

Quebec city 

Population wise there is scope in Ontario but not sure if there is the interest in:

Kitchener

Oshawa 

Windsor

London

Clanachan said 20 cities were talking about clubs. It seems a stretch but time will tell. I hope as they amp up the promo the crowds matches the professionalism and great job the CPL has done so far in their promotion. 

[Shortdutchcanuck]

3 hours ago, toontownman said:

 

Guelph 

Moncton 

St.Johns

Fraser Valley/Kelowna 

Saskatoon 

Regina 

Laval

Ottawa

Quebec city 

Population wise there is scope in Ontario but not sure if there is the interest in:

Kitchener

Oshawa 

Windsor

London

 

Guelph not so much.  Smaller population and not even a history of L10 or PDL team there.  

London and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge seem as likely to me as anyone on that upper list right up there with Laval/Quebec City and Saskatoon (Ottawa of course a no-brainer if the situation wasn't so fucked up).  Both have population and a solid history of soccer teams in PDL.  Also a good business/financial base (Kitchener especially). I think both need to sort out a viable stadium situation and an owner.  Rumour has it Bob Young is willing to invest on Kitchener, and possibly Ian Campbell of FC London could be convinced if CanPL has a successful first season.

[toontownman]

1 hour ago, Shortdutchcanuck said:

 could be convinced if CanPL has a successful first season.

I think that is going to be the litmus test. If they stay professional, build sponsors, enthusiasm and draw crowds it would surprise me to see more interest and investment for team start ups than we think. 

There will be a group just sitting on the trigger right now depending on the above and likewise more eager to come in if it doesn't bomb. 

[Kent]

On 12/14/2018 at 7:08 PM, juicy sushi said:

KW would likely be a D1 choice given the local economy.  Not much point in throwing that tech money at D2. Plus it’s at least 100,000-200,000 more people than London, Victoria, Halifax, or anywhere in Saskatchewan. 

Slight correction. London has almost the same population as KW. As of the 2016 census KW was 524k and London was 494k.

As for Mississauga, I think it could potentially work. It's got almost the population base of metro Winnipeg or Hamilton. I'd love to see a bunch of Southern Ontario teams benefiting from more tickets sold where there are games that are close enough for away fans to drive to. A fan of a Mississauga team wouldn't have to put in that much effort to go to away games in York, Hamilton, and KW. London would be quite doable too.

[ted]

On 12/15/2018 at 6:06 AM, toontownman said:

Two teams in sask could definitely work. Possibly it might be better to start with one though rather than both at the same time. Although the instant rivalry might well be a draw rather than confusing fans that would change loyalties a couple of years down the line.

Better both at once IMO. Rivalries where fans can actually travel will make a huge difference in the stadiums and on TV. Might was well make it a competition right from the start to get teams up and running.

I was speaking to someone the other day who seemed to be pushing the "coastal" derby between Wanderers and PFC which is kinda funny, but will never really be a thing - 60hr road-trip (one way). LOL

[Kent]

13 hours ago, ted said:

I was speaking to someone the other day who seemed to be pushing the "coastal" derby between Wanderers and PFC which is kinda funny, but will never really be a thing - 60hr road-trip (one way). LOL

Now you've got me wondering how many kilometers of coast there is between Halifax and Victoria (or at least the mainland next to Victoria).

Found a source that says "Canada's mainland coast, including the islands of Newfoundland, Cape Breton and Prince Edward Island, is 71 261 km long and fronts on the North Pacific, Arctic and North Atlantic oceans. If all measurable islands are included, the saltwater coastline has been measured at 243 797 km long." So I'm guessing it's about 60k or so from Halifax to Victoria.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Kent

[Initial B]

Once again, I was going over the list of Census Metropolitan areas and cities included within the GVA, GTA, and GMA and came up with a tier designation for each:

• Tier I: CMAs of greater than 700K or Cities of more than 500K - These cities should be no-brainers for their ability to support Div 1 soccer
• Tier II: CMAs or Cities of greater than 200K - These cities will be the ones shuttling between Div 1 and Div 2
• Tier III: CMAs or Cities of greater than 100K - These cities could be manageable Div 2 candidates if the operating/travel costs are lower than Div 1.
• Tier IV: CMAs or Cities of greater than 50K - These are cities that would be ideal spots to put regional Div 3 teams that might even aspire to Div 2 status.

By Region:

• West: 4 T-I, 3 T-II, 7 T-III, 6 T-IV; 20 Total
• Ontario: 4 T-I, 6 T-II, 8 T-III, 4 T-IV; 22 Total
• East: 2 T-I, 3 T-II, 5 T-III, 6 T-IV; 16 Total

I know some might complain about giving Ontario it's own bucket, but with 1/3 of the population, any CPL system is going to have a larger proportion of Ontario-based teams based on simple demographics.

If we want to make sure that there is always a healthy pro/rel competition for spots in Div 1, I don't think the league should have more than 10-12 clubs in Div 1. It might be possible to have 24-30 teams in three regions (West/Ontario/East) at the Div 2 level that wouldn't put too much strain on those clubs of lesser means. Underneath each regional Div 2 League could be a semi-pro Div 3 league for clubs to get their administration in order before aspiring to join the ladder.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Initial B said:

I was going over the list of Census Metropolitan areas and cities included within the GVA, GTA, and GMA and came up with a tier designation for each:

I'm trying to understand what you mean here. Your 4 T-I cities in Ontario, are they Ottawa, Hamilton, Mississauga, and Brampton? If I'm understanding your methodology correctly (for Ontario basically don't count Toronto proper, but count all other municipalities within the GTA, and every other part of Ontario is by CMA) wouldn't that mean there are 7 T-II cities? KW, London, Markham, Vaughan, St. Catharines, Oshawa, and Windsor.

If I extend the same logic to T-III I count 15 in Ontario (6 within GTA, 9 outside of the GTA).

My references: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_census_metropolitan_areas_and_agglomerations_in_Canada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_municipalities_in_the_Greater_Toronto_Area

Edited December 17, 2018 by Kent

[top cheese]

I think one of the things to consider is over extending the player pool such that it diminishes the product. I also feel that you have to be careful of the communities you place teams in from a business standpoint. I'm pretty sure that the size of some of these clubs will grow  pretty quick in attendance figures.

 

A league of ......

West - Victoria, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Regina,

East -  Halifax, Hamilton, York, Laval, Ottawa , Quebec City

Would suffice

 

 

 

 

 

[Initial B]

Kent, I was assuming cities that actually have an identity outside of Toronto and Hamilton, but your T-I guesses are correct. Markham and Vaughan don't have enough of a separate identity, hence why they're called York 9. 

Top Cheese, if they are going to have a single table, then there is no reason for them to have an east-west split of clubs. The clubs that are best run and have the most resources will eventually be in Div 1 and the rest in Div 2. I fully expect that at least 1/3 of the Div 1 clubs will be from the GTA/Southwestern Ontario, since that's where most of the population and fiscal resources are. Most clubs will not be able to compete as well from the other regions. I imagine Calgary, and Winnipeg out west and Quebec City out east would be able to compete financially with Bob Young.

[Initial B]

Thought I would add the list of cities i was considering in my above post from the Wiki, from largest to smallest populations, current CPL club cities in bold:

Tier I CMAs/cities (>700/500K) [12]

• GTA (Mississauga (I), Brampton (I)) [O]
• GMA (Laval (I), Longueuil (II)) [E]
• GVA (Burnaby (II), Surrey (I)) [W]
• Calgary [W]
• Ottawa [O]
• Edmonton [W]
• Quebec City [E]
• Winnipeg [W]
• Hamilton [O]

Tier II CMAs (500K-200K) [12]

• Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge [O]
• York (Markham/Vaughan) [O]
• London [O]
• Halifax [E]
• Oshawa [O]
• Victoria [W]
• Windsor [O]
• Saskatoon [W]
• Regina [W]
• St. Catharines/Niagara [O]
• Sherbrooke [E]
• St. John's [E]

Tier III CMAs (200K-100K) [20]

• Belleville [O]
• Chatham/Kent [O]
• Fredericton [E]
• Chilliwack [W]
• Red Deer [W]
• Barrie [O]
• Kelowna [W]
• Abbotsford [W]
• Sudbury [O]
• Kingston [O]
• Saguenuay [E]
• Trois-Rivieres [E]
• Guelph [O]
• Moncton [E]
• Saint John [E]
• Peterborough [O]
• Lethbridge [W]
• Nanaimo [W]
• Kamloops [W]
• Thunder Bay [W]

Tier IV CMAs (100K-50K) [16]

• Cape Breton [E]
• Sarnia [O]
• Drummondville [E]
• Prince George [W]
• Granby [E]
• Sault Ste Marie [O]
• Medicine Hat [W]
• Wood Buffalo [W]
• North Bay [O]
• Charlottetown [E]
• Grande Prairie [W]
• Vernon [W]
• Cornwall [O]
• St Hyacinthe [E]
• Brandon [W]
• Rimouski [E]

 

[Tigers]

I think you're missing Brantford? 134k

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

Greater Victoria is split into 11 different municipalities. Victoria itself is only 90,000, but the whole of actual “Victoria” is 350,000. Add in South Island and you have well enough support for a first div team, not sure why you put them in second division in both posts.

As well, I do love looking at population. But it has very little to do with the real support a team might get. I like how it narrows down the cities to their capabilities though.

[SpursFlu]

I would also add Kelowna as a general area where people can reasonably commute goes north from Vernon thru Lake Country and then South thru West Kelowna to Penticton.. probably an area of at least 300k. Summer months maybe 400k

[dyslexic nam]

6 hours ago, Initial B said:

Thought I would add the list of cities i was considering in my above post from the Wiki, from largest to smallest populations, current CPL club cities in bold:

Tier I CMAs/cities (>700/500K) [12]

• GTA (Mississauga (I), Brampton (I)) [O]
• GMA (Laval (I), Longueuil (II)) [E]
• GVA (Burnaby (II), Surrey (I)) [W]
• Calgary [W]
• Ottawa [O]
• Edmonton [W]
• Quebec City [E]
• Winnipeg [W]
• Hamilton [O]

Tier II CMAs (500K-200K) [12]

• Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge [O]
• York (Markham/Vaughan) [O]
• London [O]
• Halifax [E]
• Oshawa [O]
• Victoria [W]
• Windsor [O]
• Saskatoon [W]
• Regina [W]
• St. Catharines/Niagara [O]
• Sherbrooke [E]
• St. John's [E]

Tier III CMAs (200K-100K) [20]

• Belleville [O]
• Chatham/Kent [O]
• Fredericton [E]
• Chilliwack [W]
• Red Deer [W]
• Barrie [O]
• Kelowna [W]
• Abbotsford [W]
• Sudbury [O]
• Kingston [O]
• Saguenuay [E]
• Trois-Rivieres [E]
• Guelph [O]
• Moncton [E]
• Saint John [E]
• Peterborough [O]
• Lethbridge [W]
• Nanaimo [W]
• Kamloops [W]
• Thunder Bay [W]

Tier IV CMAs (100K-50K) [16]

• Cape Breton [E]
• Sarnia [O]
• Drummondville [E]
• Prince George [W]
• Granby [E]
• Sault Ste Marie [O]
• Medicine Hat [W]
• Wood Buffalo [W]
• North Bay [O]
• Charlottetown [E]
• Grande Prairie [W]
• Vernon [W]
• Cornwall [O]
• St Hyacinthe [E]
• Brandon [W]
• Rimouski [E]

 

4th tier baby - here we come.

[Kent]

5 hours ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

Greater Victoria is split into 11 different municipalities. Victoria itself is only 90,000, but the whole of actual “Victoria” is 350,000. Add in South Island and you have well enough support for a first div team, not sure why you put them in second division in both posts.

Because as you point out, it’s population is more than 200k but less than 500k. I don’t think his list was meant to offend fans of teams in the smaller markets, just a rough guideline to help try to picture what the league pyramid could look like many years down the road.

[nazzer]

6 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

I would also add Kelowna as a general area where people can reasonably commute goes north from Vernon thru Lake Country and then South thru West Kelowna to Penticton.. probably an area of at least 300k. Summer months maybe 400k

I"m not sure where you're from, but no one is commuting regularly from Penticton or Vernon to watch sports games in Kelowna on a regular basis. Furthest commute is West Kelowna to Winfield at best. 

 

Maybe you are from the area and have a different impression than I do. Just my thoughts as someone who grew up in Penticton andwent to university in Kelowna. 

[Copes]

22 hours ago, Initial B said:

Thought I would add the list of cities i was considering in my above post from the Wiki, from largest to smallest populations, current CPL club cities in bold:

Tier I CMAs/cities (>700/500K) [12]

• GTA (Mississauga (I), Brampton (I)) [O]
• GMA (Laval (I), Longueuil (II)) [E]
• GVA (Burnaby (II), Surrey (I)) [W]
• Calgary [W]
• Ottawa [O]
• Edmonton [W]
• Quebec City [E]
• Winnipeg [W]
• Hamilton [O]

Tier II CMAs (500K-200K) [12]

• Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge [O]
• York (Markham/Vaughan) [O]
• London [O]
• Halifax [E]
• Oshawa [O]
• Victoria [W]
• Windsor [O]
• Saskatoon [W]
• Regina [W]
• St. Catharines/Niagara [O]
• Sherbrooke [E]
• St. John's [E]

Tier III CMAs (200K-100K) [20]

• Belleville [O]
• Chatham/Kent [O]
• Fredericton [E]
• Chilliwack [W]
• Red Deer [W]
• Barrie [O]
• Kelowna [W]
• Abbotsford [W]
• Sudbury [O]
• Kingston [O]
• Saguenuay [E]
• Trois-Rivieres [E]
• Guelph [O]
• Moncton [E]
• Saint John [E]
• Peterborough [O]
• Lethbridge [W]
• Nanaimo [W]
• Kamloops [W]
• Thunder Bay [W]

Tier IV CMAs (100K-50K) [16]

• Cape Breton [E]
• Sarnia [O]
• Drummondville [E]
• Prince George [W]
• Granby [E]
• Sault Ste Marie [O]
• Medicine Hat [W]
• Wood Buffalo [W]
• North Bay [O]
• Charlottetown [E]
• Grande Prairie [W]
• Vernon [W]
• Cornwall [O]
• St Hyacinthe [E]
• Brandon [W]
• Rimouski [E]

 

Very cool list when you think about what could be. 

Beyond that, there are opportunities for regional teams, as well as multiple teams in the Tier I (and perhaps even some of the Tier II) cities. Possibility to grow beyond 60 across all divisions? Perhaps in our lifetimes! 

[dyslexic nam]

20 minutes ago, Copes said:

Very cool list when you think about what could be. 

Beyond that, there are opportunities for regional teams, as well as multiple teams in the Tier I (and perhaps even some of the Tier II) cities. Possibility to grow beyond 60 across all divisions? Perhaps in our lifetimes! 

Yeah, and I know soccer isn't the same as hockey in this country, but even the Tier IV locations noted in the list often sustain a decent level of existing sports offering - whether a major junior hockey team that can get a good draw, or an NBL team.  Heck, PEI/Charlottetown supports both, and we are just a bunch of potato-eating yokels...   And I know the budgets of these sorts of teams can be quite low, but when you think about a tiered pro-rel setup, you have to think a CPL-affiliated tier 3 team (for example) wouldn't cost too much to run.  Part time player wages, a modest stadium (likely shared with a local university or college) and some coaching/training infrastructure.  If the CPL itself can catch on, and the talk of pro-rel and truly national expansion is genuine, you can really envision a future where smaller regional leagues could start to feed into a much larger structure, and where any team could aspire to play at the highest level - potentially  assisted by things like limited revenue sharing to ensure minimum revenue guarantees.  With 7 years to go before 2026, there is even some time to start putting a few pieces in place before the WC hype train sweeps across the country providing a huge opportunity of interest.

I know that is all looking down the road a piece (and with a fairly optimistic worldview), but if this goes well it could really be the start of something big.

[SpursFlu]

15 hours ago, nazzer said:

I"m not sure where you're from, but no one is commuting regularly from Penticton or Vernon to watch sports games in Kelowna on a regular basis. Furthest commute is West Kelowna to Winfield at best. 

 

Maybe you are from the area and have a different impression than I do. Just my thoughts as someone who grew up in Penticton andwent to university in Kelowna. 

I lived in kelowna for 4 years and commuted to Vernon for work every day. First 3 years before the new highway was built. Didn't think much of it. Thats like saying we cant expect people from Port Coquitlam to go to Canucks or Whitecaps games. I live in New west and all in it takes my just under 1 hour to get in to the game. Im a season ticket holder. Whats the difference between that and driving from Peachland to Kelowna.  Except a drive thru the Okanagan in the summer is way more pleasant?

 

Following Pacific fc it seems they fully expect to draw from Nanaimo and other mid Isle communities. Im pretty sure thats further than examples i used

Edited December 19, 2018 by SpursFlu

[ted]

On 12/17/2018 at 9:37 AM, Kent said:

Now you've got me wondering how many kilometers of coast there is between Halifax and Victoria (or at least the mainland next to Victoria).

We just plugged it into Goggle and asked for the driving time.

[Rintaran]

1 hour ago, ted said:

We just plugged it into Goggle and asked for the driving time.

That's all very well and good, but if you're going for a true coast-to-coast derby, you should travel by ship through the NW Passage. Clearly, it's the only way that makes sense. 

Be sure to raid Halifax while you're there, just to stick it to the Privateers.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Rintaran

[Bison44]

Is there any way you could spend saturday night in Sudbury on the way?

[Kent]

26 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Is there any way you could spend saturday night in Sudbury on the way?

Sudbury is going to have to get their own team so they can sing that song at games.

The Charlottetown Green Gables Potato Lobsters (did I get it right @dyslexic nam?) I assume will have to pick between "Bud The Spud" and "Ketchup Loves Potatoes"

[dyslexic nam]

7 minutes ago, Kent said:

Sudbury is going to have to get their own team so they can sing that song at games.

The Charlottetown Green Gables Potato Lobsters (did I get it right @dyslexic nam?) I assume will have to pick between "Bud The Spud" and "Ketchup Loves Potatoes"

Nailed it.  Your burlap jersey will arrive shortly.  It is itchy but durable.