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Initial B

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About Initial B

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    Asset Management Analyst
  1. Been busy, but a couple of comments: League Cup - Sure part of the idea is to make money, but the other part is to provide a measuring stick of the progress of mid-level MLS clubs vs their Liga MX counterparts. If Liga MX consistently wins the majority of CCL games but tends to lose most League Cup games, that would indicate that MLS has greater parity and possibly be argued to be a stronger league overall. These are metrics MLS FO actually cares about. Club-supporting municipalities in Canada - I think Canada has enough talent to support 10-12 clubs at a Div1 level. That means I think CPL Div 1 should be capped at 8-10 clubs with Pro-Rel between clubs at Div2 and lower. I remember Clanachan saying that the league was designed about being viable in communities of +200K. There are about 10 Municipalities of >500K population (not including the big three), 15 Municipalities of >200K pop, and 13 Municipalities of >150K pop. That's 38 Municiplaities of which I'm sure we could get a competitive 10-club Div1 without diluting talent. The remaining 15-21 clubs would fight it out to get promoted from regional Div2 Conferences or act as stepping stones for players getting noticed by the Div1 Clubs.
  2. Bingo. Fury are being singled out.
  3. Then what about the TFC Academy teams playing in the US development league when they have OPDL (Not to mention TFCII in USL1)? Or the Thunder Bay Chill when they have L1O?
  4. But then that opens up a whole can of worms, with the CanSoc statement saying they had 11 teams applying for cross-border sanctioning. Why single out the Fury unless the other clubs are also going to get similarly treated?
  5. I've been told by my Fury ticket rep that refunds are on their way and check out my email when I get home.
  6. So that pretty much exonerates Canada Soccer from being a villain in this sad affair. However, that Nov 7th timeline seems to contradict what Goudie said about being told they were on their own in mid October. Now attention turns to the USSF and CONCACAF responses. The longer they wait to address this, the more suspicious this becomes that it's personal and not professional. Looking forward to their spin.
  7. It's been hard for me to read this thread and stay dispassionate and logical, but I'll try. First, I think the governing bodies of Canada Soccer, USSF, and CONCACAF need to respond to this press conference. Goudie basically said that CONCACAF decisions override any national body. If so, then what's the point of having a national body? From what he said, it sounds like CONCACAF ghosted them without letting them know of the alternatives. If OSEG started this process in May and got approval from CanSoc by June, why didn't CONCACAF immediately tell them in no uncertain terms that they were not getting 2020 sanctioning to give them time to make alternative arrangements? It comes across as CONCACAF choosing a timeline that would cause the Fury the most damage. If CONCACAF really did let the Fury know earlier, then it's all on the Fury. But if the governing bodies left the Fury to twist in the wind, then that speaks to something personal, not professional in their conduct. Then again, it's the same with Goudie in the Fury presser talking of ulterior motives, lack of trust, and ransom notes. There's a deeper story here, but I'm betting no investigative reporter cares enough to dig for it. And don't think that the MLS clubs aren't taking notes how the Fury have been treated. They'll be busy planning contingencies for when CONCACAF tries to do the same to them. TFC especially. MLSE is owned by the two most powerful media conglomerates in Canada who would have no qualms about turning up the bias against CONCACAF if it threatens one of their investments. As we all fond of saying, it's just business. And speaking of business, part of me can't help but feel a nagging suspicion that OSEG is using the politics as a smokescreen for dropping a money-losing operation. The truth lies buried somewhere inbetween and I don't think anyone is going to find it for at least another decade or longer. Regardless of the motives, the outcome is a dead club. I keep asking myself, who benefits from this? Where's the money trail? Does Montigliani really think that there is an investor who would try to put a club in a city where attempts have failed more than once? It's all fine to talk of Bob Young being a white knight, but then I worry about one owner holding too many clubs and the whole thing collapses like a pack of cards. This has probably set back professional soccer in the capital for probably a decade. Think of the cascading effect among prospective CanPL owners - if that can happen to the Ottawa Fury, what's to keep that from happening in their own city? How many investors will get cold feet and delay starting a franchise, which in turn leads to CanPL fans getting tired of the stale, same 7 clubs and slowly drifting away to where there are only 1-3000 per attending per game? When the media money runs out in 10 years and there is no follow-up contract, what then? I don't know about you guys, but I'm really concerned about unexpected ramifications of today's events on the future of Canadian Soccer.
  8. Just posted now.. https://www.ottawafuryfc.com/ Well, Crap. John Pugh lays all the blame at the feet of politics. I hope Montigliani got what he wanted. Still, there's a lot left unsaid about the financial side of things that brough them to this state. I want to see the money trail. I feel so bad for John since he put so much energy over the years into building the organization, and now OSEG has left him with nothing.
  9. Dammit. I've got a heavy sense of dread about tomorrow. I wonder if I can get a refund on my Season Tickets...
  10. The reason for promotion/relegation is to have two different levels of financial outlay for clubs. Since all clubs are individually owned, there may be points in their existence where they cannot handle the salaries and operating costs associated with that level. I've been reviewing a lot of leagues around the world on Wikipedia and you would be surprised at how many national federations have Div 1 teams that voluntarily drop to a lower division because operating costs got to be too much for them. A Div 2 would give CanPL clubs the ability to regroup and recover costs without completely folding, which is what seems to happen in North American Minor league clubs on a regular basis. That said, one of the biggest operating costs besides player salaries is the transportation and accommodations issues that have no parallel outside North America except maybe Brazil and Russia. So a lower league would probably have to be regionalized or semi-regionalized. I would break it down as: Div 1 - Air Travel/Hotel; Div 2 - Bus Travel/Motel and some Air Travel/Hotel; Div 3 - Bus Travel/Motel. In my dream set-up, I would want a 10-team Div 1 with the top 4 teams playing for the championship at the end of the year and the bottom two teams relegated to Div 2. These would be the elite clubs in the nation (outside of MLS) and have the resources to compete internationally as well. For Div 2, I would want 15-21 clubs divided into 3 regional Conferences (West, Central, East) of 4-7 clubs each, where they play one game against each out-of-Conference club and the remaining games against in-Conference clubs. Top 8 clubs overall compete in end-of-season playoffs for the two vacant Div 1 spots. The relegated Div 1 clubs are placed in their local region to recover their form. Clubs that are still too financially sick to make it at Div 2 should be allowed to drop down to a regional semi-Pro Div 3, either PLSQ (incl Atlantic Provinces), L1O, or the upcoming western Div3. Any Div 3 club can choose to join Div 2 the following season once they pay an entry fee.
  11. There has been a lot of stuff going on around OSEG this week. I'm worried for the overall health of the organization.
  12. Been away for a bit, but I need to chime in here. I think there most of the Fury issues right now are coming down to turmoil within OSEG. This the news that has been coming out the last week: Letting go the coach of the Fury, personnel incompatibilities Letting go the coach of the CFL RedBlacks, personnel incompatibilities Trying to get the City to give them rights to operate the parkland and schedule events in the spaces they don't yet control to raise more money Landsdowne redevelopment posting a net loss of $12.7 million from Jan 2018 to March 2019. Hearing rumours that the original revenue forecasts will end up with the City just breaking even at the end of the agreement and OSEG being well in the red. What worries me is that it feels like OSEG is flailing around looking for new sources of cash flow to prop up an ailing business. I'm worried there might not be a team next season. I think at this point they would jump to the CanPL if they could, but they must be locked into the USL with punitive fees that could pull the whole operation under.
  13. There are two wins separating 3rd from 7th. I think that's a pretty balanced league. No surprise that Cavalry and Forge are a cut above the rest as they have the owners with the deepest pockets. I think they're just as good as the Fury, who I'd love to see join the league in a couple of years. The baseline has been set and now we can start tracking metrics on a season per season basis.
  14. I don't know why people think the CanPL would close after one year. You always give a business 2-3 years to find it's footing. You don't expect to make money at first since your building the supporting infrastructure. It took about 10 years for MLS to find its footing. Don't think that the CanPL owners haven't studied their trajectory, especially as MLS almost closed down after 5 years of existence and was only saved because 3 investors went ahead and paid to keep everything open. If worst comes to worst and things are failing after 3 years, I expect Bob Young and the Southerns will bankroll it over the hump as they're committed to seeing this work. And with the 10 year MediaPro deal in place and the Volkswagen and Westjet sponsorships, I think they've got a bit of a cushion for at least a decade to get this league some traction.
  15. Didn't the CPL say teams needed to break 5000 per game to be sustainable? How are they going to not lose money with only 60% of that number?
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