CPL new teams speculation

[One American]

Am curious- what are the odds of Buffalo area, Detroit (Windsor), Milwaukee, Cleveland, or even a Chicago team?

[Keegan]

7 minutes ago, One American said:

Am curious- what are the odds of Buffalo area, Detroit (Windsor), Milwaukee, Cleveland, or even a Chicago team?

Before this CONCACAF ruling I'd probably say 0.01%, now I'd say zero chance

[juicy sushi]

On 12/9/2018 at 10:57 PM, toontownman said:

Think it was likely a slip of the tongue and mix up of dates but Brennan said in his sportsnet interview they are expecting/hoping for 16 teams by 2020. Must have meant 2022 or 2026?

As long as Saskatoon is in

16 stable teams, by 2020, or even 2022, would be an amazing achievement and kill off just about all of my skepticism/cynicism. 

[Blackjack15]

We will reach 16 Teams, i am certain of it! 

[baulderdash77]

I still don’t see past 14 to be honest.  I have a hard time getting enough markets.

7 current plus:

Ottawa, Laval, Quebec City, Kitchener-Waterloo, Saskatoon/ Regina.

Thats’s 12.  Then what?

Missisauga maybe?  London maybe?  Surrey?  

I mean getting 14-15 is stretching it don’t you think.

[Cblake]

I have a hard time seeing this League growing beyond 16-18 and still being able to greatly raise the playing standard /quality of play. If this was more along the lines of a development/junior hockey type league where say 3,4,5K would be good I could seeing growing to say 28-32 teams and beyond but if it's goal is to have over 10k game and paying salaries of at least the MLS min with a few six figure guys the ceiling is much lower as smaller markets and especially a bunch that are closer to each other like KW, London and Windsor would have trouble sustaining such a level. 

I see a Regina, Saskatoon, Both the greater Montreal and Vancouver area, Quebec City , another in Southern Ontario and out east making sense. 

[baulderdash77]

I don’t know about both Regina and Saskatoon.  The province isn’t a huge market and 2 teams stretches it.

Same thing with Windsor.  I think it has too small of a business community there.  No head offices which you need to seek suites.

Edited December 14, 2018 by baulderdash77

[Cblake]

4 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

I still don’t see past 14 to be honest.  I have a hard time getting enough markets.

7 current plus:

Ottawa, Laval, Quebec City, Kitchener-Waterloo, Saskatoon/ Regina.

Thats’s 12.  Then what?

Missisauga maybe?  London maybe?  Surrey?  

I mean getting 14-15 is stretching it don’t you think.

Beyond the 7 + Ottawa I see Ottawa, Laval 

 

5 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

I still don’t see past 14 to be honest.  I have a hard time getting enough markets.

7 current plus:

Ottawa, Laval, Quebec City, Kitchener-Waterloo, Saskatoon/ Regina.

Thats’s 12.  Then what?

Missisauga maybe?  London maybe?  Surrey?  

I mean getting 14-15 is stretching it don’t you think.

Beyond the 7 + Ottawa I see potentially:

Saskatoon/Regina , not sure about both

Quebec City

Great Montreal Area ie Laval

Greater Vancouver Area ie Fraser Valley/Surrey 

Maybe another out east , there is the stadium in Moncton 

Southern Ontario, one of KW, Windsor, London and Mississauga, maybe two but they were really have to be sure about it.

When the league was talking about 22 interested markets I have to think some of those negated each other.

[HaliCanuck]

4 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

7 current plus:

Ottawa, Laval, Quebec City, Kitchener-Waterloo, Saskatoon/ Regina.

Thats’s 12.  Then what?

Missisauga maybe?  London maybe?  Surrey?  

I mean getting 14-15 is stretching it don’t you think.

As long as the league is okay with have and have-not teams with different expenditures, you could do it.  This probably means a pro/relegation of of 8 or 9 teams in a league.

7+ Lower Mainland (Surrey), Okanagan (Kelowna), Regina, Saskatoon, London, KW, Mississauga, Ottawa, Laval, Quebec, Moncton, St. John's =  19 teams.  

If you some of the above you can get to 16.

[juicy sushi]

I guess it depends on how big a market needs to be.  If 5-10k, you need metro areas of sufficient size.  So, given the initial 7, we could look to maybe another GTA team (east end?), Laval, Quebec City, likely Ottawa, KItchener-Waterloo, a couple of Saskatchewan teams, London, and a Lower Mainland BC team.  

That would be 16.  Beyond that, I am not sure many metro areas have the population base and business communities necessary.   

[One American]

It would seem hard to get to 16 without a handful US\US-ish teams. At the least, teams across the bridges from Buffalo and Detroit.

Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary, York.

 

The 3 big ones plus Saskatchewan. That's 13. Then what?

 

I would guess Buffalo is the most likely. b/c it is less likely than Detroit to get MLS.

[juicy sushi]

3 minutes ago, One American said:

It would seem hard to get to 16 without a handful US\US-ish teams. At the least, teams across the bridges from Buffalo and Detroit.

Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary, York.

 

The 3 big ones plus Saskatchewan. That's 13. Then what?

 

I would guess Buffalo is the most likely. b/c it is less likely than Detroit to get MLS.

Well, at least one more GTA team, Laval, and Kitchener Waterloo all have enough size and money to get in. 

[dyslexic nam]

7 minutes ago, One American said:

It would seem hard to get to 16 without a handful US\US-ish teams. At the least, teams across the bridges from Buffalo and Detroit.

Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary, York.

 

The 3 big ones plus Saskatchewan. That's 13. Then what?

 

I would guess Buffalo is the most likely. b/c it is less likely than Detroit to get MLS.

There is absolutely no way whatsoever that is happening.  Those teams could play in USL, and there is no way the US teams would get sanctioning to play in our league.  Events of the last day or two have made that very clear.

[KW519]

15 minutes ago, One American said:

It would seem hard to get to 16 without a handful US\US-ish teams. At the least, teams across the bridges from Buffalo and Detroit.

Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary, York.

 

The 3 big ones plus Saskatchewan. That's 13. Then what?

 

I would guess Buffalo is the most likely. b/c it is less likely than Detroit to get MLS.

Hate to be that guy but Saskatchewan is a Province. Regina and Saskatoon could both work in Saskatchewan. But chances of Buffalo and Detroit being explored before Niagara Falls and Windsor are slim to none 

[Cblake]

I just can't see more than two of these southern Ontario markets, Mississauga, K-W, London, Windsor getting teams. 

[juicy sushi]

KW and London for sure work, as they’re not really GTA commuting distances.  Hamilton and York cover the west and north of the GTA, so really a team in the east is the only choice that makes sense.  Windsor may be too depleted at this point to be viable.  

[KW519]

8 minutes ago, Cblake said:

I just can't see more than two of these southern Ontario markets, Mississauga, K-W, London, Windsor getting teams. 

All but 1 are the same size or bigger than Halifax (Windsor slightly smaller without including Detroit). Sarnia is an hour away from both London and Windsor, so that's an additional market that London or Windsor could reach. For division 1 you're probably right, but if the league moves to 2nd and 3rd divisions they will all likely be heavily considered for clubs.

[Mikmacdo]

I think you could put a team in Oshawa, North York after York9 move to Vaughan, Mississauga, Brampton, London.

If they go to a second division, Kitchener, Windsor, Kingston and Peterborough would work. 

[juicy sushi]

17 minutes ago, Mikmacdo said:

I think you could put a team in Oshawa, North York after York9 move to Vaughan, Mississauga, Brampton, London.

If they go to a second division, Kitchener, Windsor, Kingston and Peterborough would work. 

KW would likely be a D1 choice given the local economy.  Not much point in throwing that tech money at D2. Plus it’s at least 100,000-200,000 more people than London, Victoria, Halifax, or anywhere in Saskatchewan. 

[warpus]

The city of London is currently looking to build a stadium (potentially downtown) that could be used for various sports and/or events.  They are publishing a parks & recreation master plan at some point in 2019, and it's expected to include more details about what the city's plans are re: such a stadium.  There is a site they have in mind already, but it also sounds like a more long-term "we need to look into this" type of initiative.  More will be clear when that master report comes out.  This stadium initiative has already been linked with the CPL in the local media: https://lfpress.com/sports/soccer/will-london-build-a-downtown-sports-stadium-its-a-possibility

FC London owner met with the CPL but "the financials did not work out" probably meaning he doesn't have enough $$ behind him to run a CPL team.  So even if the city goes ahead with stadium plans we would also need more investors on board, or a new group altogether.

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

If pro/rel is a reality in 20 years, I could defiantly see a full 18 team league first division with regional leagues underneath it. Places like Moncton, St. John’s, Niagara falls, Sherbrooke, Surrey, and even Kelowna might be able to jump up and down from div 1 to div 2.

however, I don’t think that is going to happen anytime soon, and even then it is unlikely. I don’t think it is a problem for teams like Hamilton to be spending 2 mil on salaries and Kelowna to be spending 750,000. All it takes is a couple hidden gems and a team spending 750,000 could still challenge for the title.

I also don’t think teams in small cities will work unless there is pro/rel because fans Would get disinterested without the thrill of avoiding relegation for the small markets. For that reason 18 teams will be a difficult number to maintain.

[juicy sushi]

17 minutes ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

I also don’t think teams in small cities will work unless there is pro/rel because fans Would get disinterested without the thrill of avoiding relegation for the small markets. For that reason 18 teams will be a difficult number to maintain.

I don’t think that’s the case.  People have been turning out to minor league hockey and baseball for decades without it.  Teams need to play entertaining soccer and give fans a solid experience.  Pro-rel isn’t a substitute for good soccer, and frequently leads to bad soccer as teams struggle for survival.  

Edited December 15, 2018 by juicy sushi

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

13 minutes ago, juicy sushi said:

I don’t think that’s the case.  People have been turning out to minor league hockey and baseball for decades without it.  Teams need to play entertaining soccer and give fans a solid experience.  Pro-rel isn’t a substitute for good soccer, and frequently leads to bad soccer as teams struggle for survival.  

Ya, but in other sports in North America there are salary caps and teams go up and down in the standings. People would get mad at the “cheap owners” if the weren’t winning to spend the full amount on players. We see it in the MLS all over the place, and they even have a soft cap.

[Initial B]

Honestly, I only see 10-14 clubs being constant Div 1 quality sides. If you break up the Div 2 clubs into regional areas with little or no cross-regional play, that might open up more markets in cities that might not handle a Div 1 schedule. That wouldn't be so expensive if you only had to bus between cities rather than fly. West/Central/East regions would break down the travel cost enough for some current Div 3 clubs to move up to Div 2. They could gather experience at that level before they make a push for Div 1 Promotion through quality. Say you have 10 Div 1 clubs, with 3 regions of 8-10 Div 2 clubs. At the end of each season, have the top Div 2 team from each region get promoted in place of the bottom three Div 1 clubs. Bottom Div 2 club in each region gets relegated to the regional Div 3, but only if the Top Div 3 for that season meets the Promotion requirements and/or doesn't decline promotion. 

 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

10 hours ago, warpus said:

FC London owner met with the CPL but "the financials did not work out" probably meaning he doesn't have enough $$ behind him to run a CPL team.  So even if the city goes ahead with stadium plans we would also need more investors on board, or a new group altogether.

Think he does have the money because he was contemplating USL D3 participation back in 2010 when the CSA's moratorium on further expansion into USSF sanctioned league was imposed. At that point there was talk of a stadium being built at Oxford and Highbury (probably at JPII HS but forget the finer details). My understanding is that he is in the same sort of wealth league as the Fath brothers in Edmonton. The issue is more whether CanPL's business plan makes sense and that's still an open question that will have been answered by the time the city gets around to building a viable stadium. Some people are more risk averse than others.

Edited December 15, 2018 by BringBackTheBlizzard