CPL new teams speculation

[Kent]

6 hours ago, phil03 said:

I mean, if we are talking about Metro area as a whole then Moncton is just 10K below Kelowna and likely to pass it pretty soon...

This can't be right. What I am seeing from the 2021 census is that Kelowna's metro area had a population of 222,000 (up 14% in the 5 years prior) and Moncton's metro area had a population of 157,000 (up 9% in the 5 years prior). Are you saying in the last 3 years Moncton's population has gone up by 55k plus however much Kelowna's population has gone up in that time?

Some googling tells me Moncton's population growth has accelerated since 2021, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest it is within 10k of Kelown. Still great to see in terms of prospective CPL cities though!

[Kingston]

7 hours ago, Kent said:

This can't be right. What I am seeing from the 2021 census is that Kelowna's metro area had a population of 222,000 (up 14% in the 5 years prior) and Moncton's metro area had a population of 157,000 (up 9% in the 5 years prior). Are you saying in the last 3 years Moncton's population has gone up by 55k plus however much Kelowna's population has gone up in that time?

Some googling tells me Moncton's population growth has accelerated since 2021, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest it is within 10k of Kelown. Still great to see in terms of prospective CPL cities though!

Here is the list from StatsCan.  It's normally updated each February but this year won't be updated until late May for some reason.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

It shows Kelowna at 235 000 and Moncton at 171 000.

Personally, I think both are too small for the CPL but that's another discussion.

[Mihairokov]

Moncton is a market that needs L1Atlantic for a few seasons to get a good program up and running to gauge the market. Owner questions aside i'm not convinced the market would be big enough to support in good enough numbers.

When there's places far larger without franchises i'd be skeptical of the league moving into Moncton before any of them.

Edited April 30 by Mihairokov

[phil03]

On 4/29/2024 at 11:45 PM, Kent said:

This can't be right. What I am seeing from the 2021 census is that Kelowna's metro area had a population of 222,000 (up 14% in the 5 years prior) and Moncton's metro area had a population of 157,000 (up 9% in the 5 years prior). Are you saying in the last 3 years Moncton's population has gone up by 55k plus however much Kelowna's population has gone up in that time?

Some googling tells me Moncton's population growth has accelerated since 2021, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest it is within 10k of Kelown. Still great to see in terms of prospective CPL cities though!

I was going by the numbers given by others for Kelowna which was 180K, Moncton being at 170K in 2022 (5.3% growth in a single year!). Still, it 220K is in the ballpark of the minimum to be suitable for a CPL club I'd say Moncton is likely to get there fairly quickly, both out of its natural growth and because thanks to it Greater Moncton is bound to swallow, so to speak, some communities close by that didn't use to be part of it...

[Watchmen]

Population of a city is only one aspect. Honest question: is there an interested party who would want to own a team in Moncton? I mean assume the Irving's could do it if they wanted to, but since they haven't so far is there someone else?

Edited May 1 by Watchmen

[phil03]

40 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

Population of a city is only one aspect. Honest question: is there an interested party who would want to own a team in Moncton? I mean assume the Irving's could do it if they wanted to, but since they haven't so far is there someone else?

I don't think anyone else would do it individually but you have enough triving businesses in the area who have invested in sports sponsorship in the past that I could see an ownership group getting together. You just need someone to be the spark and get people together IMO...

EDIT: Actually I could see Medavie, after whom the stadium is named, do it. They are a fairly big company with its headquarters in Moncton and their CEO is Bernard Lord, former New Brunswick premier and MLA in the area so they have enough buy in to the community its possible IMO. They are also a non-profit corporation so if they could be convinced in the league they'd be more looses tolerant and willing to see it as a community service then others...

While they are not from Moncton the city is close enough to PEI I could also imagine the McCain family getting in somehow.

Edited May 1 by phil03

[Mihairokov]

None of the Irving family are really too into sports teams aside from Robert who owns the Wildcats.

When the Sea Dogs were announced it was joked that Scott McCain only bought the team as a foil to the Irving family owning the Wildcats, particularly that the McCains would own a team in such a heavy Irving town as Saint John.

Medavie is a non-profit and I doubt they would be interested in owning a professional sports team.

Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic about these ownership prospects.

[phil03]

Does anyone have a clue where this might come from?

[shermanator]

You mean the whole "David Clanachan steps down as Commissioner and gets rights to an expansion franchise in Windsor" thing from over 2 years ago? It happened. And there is nothing going on with that bid...

https://canpl.ca/article/commissioner-david-clanachan-awarded-exclusive-cpl-rights-to-windsoressex-county-and-to-step-down-as-first-cpl-commissioner

Edited May 2 by shermanator

[Kent]

1 minute ago, phil03 said:

Does anyone have a clue where this might come from?

I'm guessing they are referring to this from over 2 years ago. But they weren't given an expansion spot. Clanachan was just given dibs on a team there if he could make it happen.

https://canpl.ca/article/commissioner-david-clanachan-awarded-exclusive-cpl-rights-to-windsoressex-county-and-to-step-down-as-first-cpl-commissioner

[DoyleG]

On 4/29/2024 at 10:20 AM, Colonel Green said:

Sales of an MLS team would almost certainly start from the point of keeping them in their current location, just with different owners, not immediately moving the franchise elsewhere. Franchise relocation is the last resort of most leagues.

MLS isn't one of those leagues.

They had no qualms helping Precourt move the Crew to Austin and were quite public in saying so.

It was only stopped because it was likely the State of Ohio would've seized the team under state laws (which were enacted after the original Browns left Cleveland.)

[phil03]

2 hours ago, DoyleG said:

MLS isn't one of those leagues.

They had no qualms helping Precourt move the Crew to Austin and were quite public in saying so.

It was only stopped because it was likely the State of Ohio would've seized the team under state laws (which were enacted after the original Browns left Cleveland.)

I am not sure the Columbus situation prove otherwise though. The Austin's clause in Precourt's buying of the club only came up years after he bought the club, during which they continued to play in Colombus. Similarly, Haslam only emerged as a potential buyer for the club after the whole situation had already become a public mess and the league had announced they were cool with Precourt moving to Austin.

There is no guarantee that a) there was more solid options then Precourt to keep the team in Columbus when they sold it or b) there was options to keep the team in Columbus before Haslam manifested himself. 

To go back to Canadian clubs, before a potential move could happen you'd need the following to take place:

a) The current ownership no longer being interested in owning the clubs.

b) That searches for potential buyers doesn't manage to find options to keep them around MTL and VAN.

c) That the league decide its ok with a relocation.

There has literally been nothing concrete indicating any of these points. The most you have is Saputo and the Whitecaps ownership being too cheap for many fans and the usual whining to get public money every time stadium building and renovation happen...

At the risk of repeating myself, all of this is just baseless speculations due to OneSoccer jumping to the conclusions they want to be true and their pundits being Toronto-centric, leading to alot of the smaller media gravitating around them following suit. I respect and appreciate a lot of their coverage but those talks are frankly bad journalism on their part.

Edited May 4 by phil03

[top cheese]

Moncton could draw from PEI as well. Considering they already have a soccer-specific stadium its a no-brainer. 

[gigi riva]

1 hour ago, top cheese said:

Moncton could draw from PEI as well. Considering they already have a soccer-specific stadium its a no-brainer. 

Aperfect scenerio would a a team in Halifax , Moncton , St Johns Nfld , and Charlotown PEI

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

...but it's not going to happen with the current economic model and the dreams of MLS style escalating franchise values unfolding by some mysterious process of osmosis courtesy of Mark Noonan being around. A team in Charlottetown, PEI is never going to provide an owner with that because the population base is too small for it to be anything other than what some rich local businessman runs at a slight loss for the community for bread and circuses type reasons in a QMJHL team sort of way.

[Colonel Green]

8 hours ago, top cheese said:

Moncton could draw from PEI as well. Considering they already have a soccer-specific stadium its a no-brainer. 

Moncton is a two-hour drive from most of Prince Edward Island's population centers (plus bridge toll). It wouldn't be counted on for more than tourist traffic.

[Steve Zissou]

9 hours ago, top cheese said:

Moncton could draw from PEI as well. Considering they already have a soccer-specific stadium its a no-brainer. 

Moncton has a soccer specific stadium?

The only stadium in aware of is this one, a track and field stadium

 

[BigBadBorto]

Yeah the Moncton stadium is a good size for CPL (8,300 with potential to add on for big events), but the track does take away from the experience for soccer by pushing fans 10 meters further back.  The location is also not downtown - it's on the University campus -  maybe a 5 minute drive downtown- so not a quick walk by any means and not near an area with pubs or restaurants as far as I can recall..    I've been to a soccer game and football game there and both were very well attended and well organized.  I think Moncton and St. John's NL could possibly work for CPL, although they would be behind other cities like Quebec, London or Kitchener, Windsor, Saskatoon or Regina in my opinion. 

St. John's could upgrade the King George field (where Canada qualified for their first world cup back in 1985 beating Honduras)..  That would be amazing!  Unfortunately the travel cost for NL and the ability to attract players to move there would be a big challenge.  Moncton might work, but also is a bit smaller (160k metro but growing fast) than the 300k I think is needed, although they do have a good population within 1.5 hour drive  that could help (including Charlottetown PEI, Fredericton and St, John NB).  The proximity to Halifax is a big plus, helping to reduce some of the travel cost for both teams and creating a regional rivalry.

Edited May 4 by BigBadBorto

[Mihairokov]

The toll on the Confederation Bridge would nearly cost more than tickets. It's a non-starter. 

 

St. John's isn't happening because of travel costs, which is why every other sports team there fails. 

Edited May 4 by Mihairokov

[BigBadBorto]

1 hour ago, Mihairokov said:

The toll on the Confederation Bridge would nearly cost more than tickets. It's a non-starter. 

 

St. John's isn't happening because of travel costs, which is why every other sports team there fails. 

I don't think the toll makes Moncton a "non-starter" - PEI being only one part of the 1-2 hour catchment area for Moncton .   The toll is expensive (about $50) but when you spread it across a few people travelling in a car it's not as bad.  People do travel back and forth all the time from PEI to Moncton and they would likely make a day of it (go to Costco for example and then the game or visit friends or family)

 

Travel cost is definitely St John's biggest challenge.  But doesn't mean it can't ever be successful.  Before the Halifax Mooseheads, Halifax could never keep a team for more than a few years and now the Mooseheads 30 + years are one of the most successful teams in junior hockey 

[narduch]

2 hours ago, Mihairokov said:

The toll on the Confederation Bridge would nearly cost more than tickets. It's a non-starter. 

 

St. John's isn't happening because of travel costs, which is why every other sports team there fails. 

Literally just lost their ECHL team. Folded mid season 

[Mihairokov]

1 hour ago, BigBadBorto said:

I don't think the toll makes Moncton a "non-starter" - PEI being only one part of the 1-2 hour catchment area for Moncton .   The toll is expensive (about $50) but when you spread it across a few people travelling in a car it's not as bad.  People do travel back and forth all the time from PEI to Moncton and they would likely make a day of it (go to Costco for example and then the game or visit friends or family)

 

Travel cost is definitely St John's biggest challenge.  But doesn't mean it can't ever be successful.  Before the Halifax Mooseheads, Halifax could never keep a team for more than a few years and now the Mooseheads 30 + years are one of the most successful teams in junior hockey 

Halifax's CMA pop. was 30% larger in 1994 than St John's is today and doesn't haven't nearly as bad travel issues as NL does. As narduch mentions, their ECHL team just folded a few weeks ago mid-season. I'm trying my best not to be a downer or negative on this but it's quite literally 12th+ on a list of potential landing spots for franchises. 

Moncton needs to rely on immediate population for a team and cannot rely on trans-border tolled fans for tickets. I've seen a lot of people argue that if the Riders can make a regional ticket model work for their games it can be applicable elsewhere, but the geographic makeup is not the same and the ticketing requirements (# games per season) is nearly double. 

Edited May 4 by Mihairokov

[Soccerpro2]

This idea of Moncton drawing a “regional” fan base is stupid. It’s not going to happen.

A team isn’t going to happen in Moncton or St John’s for painfully obvious reasons. 

People need to stop with the word vomit on here.

[brianjc]

If Moncton is not going to happen for CPL what about League 1 Atlantic instead?? (along with Charlottetown, Saint John, Fredericton)

[Mihairokov]

19 minutes ago, brianjc said:

If Moncton is not going to happen for CPL what about League 1 Atlantic instead?? (along with Charlottetown, Saint John, Fredericton)

It should be the first location considered based on population and players to draw from. Theoretically anywhere is possible for L1 since they don't really have crowd size requirements but will skew towards lager markets for playerbase. There are teams in L1O that draw literally a dozen people to matches.