CPL new teams speculation

[Kingston]

1 hour ago, BigBadBorto said:

Interesting discussion about metro population size needed for a CPL team..  Too big a city like Toronto and Vancouver and it doesn't seem to work (at least not yet), some bigger cities like Ottawa and Hamilton (and Calgary somewhat) also seem to work, but Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much.  Halifax works and Victoria so-so..  All this really tells me is that there is no formula for success or failure when looking at metro size.  Obviously there is a minimum size needed.. maybe it's 200k or 300k - I don't know.   

Clearly it's not just population but it does seem to follow a Goldilocks pattern.  Too small (whatever the number is) and there just aren't enough fans.  Too big and the city doesn't embrace a CPL-level league (maybe because they already have an MLS team).  Mid-range cities look to be best in a population metric but then the other factors take over to determine success or failure.

1 hour ago, BigBadBorto said:

I think what new potential owner should do (and maybe CPL should require this) is to ask for deposits on season tickets to gauge interest.  $80 or $100 deposit (towards season ticket for potential team) from fans will see what the real level of interest is.  I would think you need at least 3,000 season tickets to reach 5,000 average attendance (the potential break even attendance as far as we can tell), so if you can get 3k deposits, that would go a long way to proving there is enough interest in a team, and then you look at all the other factors that need to work (stadium, travel, corporate sponsors, etc..).  If on the other hand all you get is 1,500 deposits then it is a sign it may not work

It's an interesting idea.  I wonder what the season ticket base is of the existing teams?

[SpursFlu]

2 hours ago, BigBadBorto said:

Interesting discussion about metro population size needed for a CPL team..  Too big a city like Toronto and Vancouver and it doesn't seem to work (at least not yet), some bigger cities like Ottawa and Hamilton (and Calgary somewhat) also seem to work, but Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much.  Halifax works and Victoria so-so..  All this really tells me is that there is no formula for success or failure when looking at metro size.  Obviously there is a minimum size needed.. maybe it's 200k or 300k - I don't know.   

I think what new potential owner should do (and maybe CPL should require this) is to ask for deposits on season tickets to gauge interest.  $80 or $100 deposit (towards season ticket for potential team) from fans will see what the real level of interest is.  I would think you need at least 3,000 season tickets to reach 5,000 average attendance (the potential break even attendance as far as we can tell), so if you can get 3k deposits, that would go a long way to proving there is enough interest in a team, and then you look at all the other factors that need to work (stadium, travel, corporate sponsors, etc..).  If on the other hand all you get is 1,500 deposits then it is a sign it may not work

You're right. And the list of factors keep going and going. People just want to create some metric and pull data off Wikipedia without any contexts. Honestly you just never know until you try. If someone has the money, the belief and the balls.. then good luck to them. As soccer fans we should be cheering them on

[MtlMario]

I'm leaving for a week 's vacation, hopefully when I return there will be solid info about a new team.🙏

[fil]

What?! You really think their will be expansion news on this thread in a week's time?! Be ready to be...

 

[johnyb]

On 2/2/2024 at 9:11 AM, BigBadBorto said:

Interesting discussion about metro population size needed for a CPL team..  Too big a city like Toronto and Vancouver and it doesn't seem to work (at least not yet), some bigger cities like Ottawa and Hamilton (and Calgary somewhat) also seem to work, but Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much.  Halifax works and Victoria so-so..  All this really tells me is that there is no formula for success or failure when looking at metro size.  Obviously there is a minimum size needed.. maybe it's 200k or 300k - I don't know.   

I think what new potential owner should do (and maybe CPL should require this) is to ask for deposits on season tickets to gauge interest.  $80 or $100 deposit (towards season ticket for potential team) from fans will see what the real level of interest is.  I would think you need at least 3,000 season tickets to reach 5,000 average attendance (the potential break even attendance as far as we can tell), so if you can get 3k deposits, that would go a long way to proving there is enough interest in a team, and then you look at all the other factors that need to work (stadium, travel, corporate sponsors, etc..).  If on the other hand all you get is 1,500 deposits then it is a sign it may not work

This is a great idea and one that was employed by Sam Katz (Owner of Winnipeg Goldeyes A Baseball). It was over 20 years ago now, but he had asked for a deposit on Season Tickets to gauge interest. It went well and the rest is history. He went on to build a Baseball Specific Stadium and for a while was the second best attended Baseball team in Canada. 

[Bison44]

3 hours ago, johnyb said:

This is a great idea and one that was employed by Sam Katz (Owner of Winnipeg Goldeyes A Baseball). It was over 20 years ago now, but he had asked for a deposit on Season Tickets to gauge interest. It went well and the rest is history. He went on to build a Baseball Specific Stadium and for a while was the second best attended Baseball team in Canada. 

They were up at 7000 but have settled in at 4-5k attendance, nice location near the forks, sort of the goldilocks spot.  Back before CPL I always thought if baseball could draw that than a soccer team could too.  

[Cicero]

On 2/2/2024 at 10:11 AM, BigBadBorto said:

Interesting discussion about metro population size needed for a CPL team..  Too big a city like Toronto and Vancouver and it doesn't seem to work (at least not yet), some bigger cities like Ottawa and Hamilton (and Calgary somewhat) also seem to work, but Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much.  Halifax works and Victoria so-so..  All this really tells me is that there is no formula for success or failure when looking at metro size.  Obviously there is a minimum size needed.. maybe it's 200k or 300k - I don't know.  

I think teams in the big three cities will never make it, people there view themselves as part of the 'major leagues'. Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton and Winnipeg are on the borderline, all have NHL teams, but they really haven't made it into the big times as none would be considered for a team in any other major league. Not a new take, but I think any expansion should be in third tier cities. KW, London, Windsor, Quebec City, Barrie, Moncton, St. Catherines, Kelowna, Saskatoon, Regina. 'Vancouver' should have been further out into the Valley. Langley is too close to Vancouver. If they had found a good location in Abbotsford, and put money into a decent stadium, I suspect they would have better long-term prospects. Even building a real stadium in Langley might have given better long term prospects. But I don't think they have the money for an actual stadium. I'm a skeptic about the GVRD market in general. The Whitecaps don't even draw 20k consistently.

[MauditYvon]

Laval Rocket in the AHL is drawing good crowds, average attendance of 8931 so far this year. The Impact had 10 000 back in USL/NASL. Laval, with a new stadium near Montmorency, would be a perfect location. I'm also pretty sure that Québec would have at least 5000 people at their home game.

[Watchmen]

58 minutes ago, MauditYvon said:

Laval Rocket in the AHL is drawing good crowds, average attendance of 8931 so far this year. The Impact had 10 000 back in USL/NASL. Laval, with a new stadium near Montmorency, would be a perfect location. I'm also pretty sure that Québec would have at least 5000 people at their home game.

The two weakest markets currently in the CPL are the ones in the Greater Toronto region and the Greater Vancouver region. The Impact drew 10k when there was no competition in the market, similar to how the Whitecaps drew 5k during the same era but the CPL draws 2k now.

[Stoppage Time]

2 hours ago, Watchmen said:

The two weakest markets currently in the CPL are the ones in the Greater Toronto region and the Greater Vancouver region. The Impact drew 10k when there was no competition in the market, similar to how the Whitecaps drew 5k during the same era but the CPL draws 2k now.

This is why it is so important for the CPL to firmly establish itself as a strong identify, develop, and sell outfit to make up for low gate receipts. Any and all revenue would be welcome.

 

[Mihairokov]

On 2/5/2024 at 11:16 PM, Bison44 said:

They were up at 7000 but have settled in at 4-5k attendance, nice location near the forks, sort of the goldilocks spot.  Back before CPL I always thought if baseball could draw that than a soccer team could too.  

It's been a while since I crunched numbers but IIRC there was a time where the Goldeyes would draw double what the Vancouver Canadians would and over the course of the past fifteen years their crowd sizes switched, where Vancouver now sells out their games and Winnipeg's crowd declined.

Winnipeg's a weird market. A ton of sports teams and it definitely can't maintain all of them. The Jets are leading the NHL and can't fill their (smaller by NHL standards) building. The Bombers took a slight hit when the Jets returned and now overwhelmingly lead the CFL in a number of ways. Valour have struggled to take off. There's only so many people in that market with only so much entertainment allowance to go around.

Edited February 7 by Mihairokov

[johnyb]

15 hours ago, Mihairokov said:

It's been a while since I crunched numbers but IIRC there was a time where the Goldeyes would draw double what the Vancouver Canadians would and over the course of the past fifteen years their crowd sizes switched, where Vancouver now sells out their games and Winnipeg's crowd declined.

Winnipeg's a weird market. A ton of sports teams and it definitely can't maintain all of them. The Jets are leading the NHL and can't fill their (smaller by NHL standards) building. The Bombers took a slight hit when the Jets returned and now overwhelmingly lead the CFL in a number of ways. Valour have struggled to take off. There's only so many people in that market with only so much entertainment allowance to go around.

Agree with most of this. I've always argued that Winnipeggers will support winning teams only. The 2 big teams are the Jets and Bombers. Both will sell out when the team is winning and both will loose 30% of attendees when they are not. The Winnipeg Sea Bears of the CEBL have been a competitive team since they're inauguration and are setting attendance records with 7k - 8k. The Goldeyes won the Championship in their first season and they've been solid ever since. Give Valour a season or 2 with a winning record and a playoff run and we will be at 6k - 7k per game. Sadly, I just don't see it happening.

[Aird25]

16 hours ago, Mihairokov said:

The Jets are leading the NHL

Aren't the Canucks leading the NHL. Winnipeg are only 3rd in their division

[Mihairokov]

3 hours ago, johnyb said:

Agree with most of this. I've always argued that Winnipeggers will support winning teams only. The 2 big teams are the Jets and Bombers. Both will sell out when the team is winning and both will loose 30% of attendees when they are not. The Winnipeg Sea Bears of the CEBL have been a competitive team since they're inauguration and are setting attendance records with 7k - 8k. The Goldeyes won the Championship in their first season and they've been solid ever since. Give Valour a season or 2 with a winning record and a playoff run and we will be at 6k - 7k per game. Sadly, I just don't see it happening.

It was big news in online-circles when the Saskatchewan Rush started and led that league in attendance for the first few seasons at something like 14K. Since COVID they haven't been able to average above 9K. We'll have to see how CEBL, and frankly CPL, trends in the next few years.

The Vancouver Warriors are an ominous sign for Vancouver FC, though, if you're reading the tea leaves on playing in Langley versus playing downtown.

2 hours ago, Aird25 said:

Aren't the Canucks leading the NHL. Winnipeg are only 3rd in their division

Splitting hairs a little here.

Edited February 7 by Mihairokov

[Watchmen]

16 minutes ago, Mihairokov said:

The Vancouver Warriors are an ominous sign for Vancouver FC, though, if you're reading the tea leaves on playing in Langley versus playing downtown.

I'm not convinced on VFC, but don't think the Warriors relocation is a good comparable. Warriors were bought by the Aquillinis with the express purpose of adding more usage to their existing arena downtown.

[Mihairokov]

2 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I'm not convinced on VFC, but don't think the Warriors relocation is a good comparable. Warriors were bought by the Aquillinis with the express purpose of adding more usage to their existing arena downtown.

The point was less why they moved and more the fact that they only half-filled the arena in Langley and are now drawing crowds three times the size downtown. I'm not convinced on Langley being the best spot for VFC and would have far preferred something in Burnaby or Surrey instead. Anyway!

Edited February 8 by Mihairokov

[Tigers]

I think the key would be leaning into a "Laval" identity. Vancouver FC used the big city moniker and that appears to be a questionable decision, and York is a bit nebulous with many definitions and none of them strong 

Speaking of lacrosse, I went to my first game recently here in Hamilton. When the Toronto Rock moved here but didn't change their name, I thought well, why would I support them? But my friends stepdad played for the Georgia team, so I went with a bunch of friends to cheer for Georgia. 

It was really fun, easy to understand, and had a surprisingly (to me) high attendance of over 7000. I haven't kept up on how the Rock did in TO, or how the Bulldogs were doing here, but I was impressed. I guess the question is how many are locals vs coming from Toronto, and if any of those Toronto people would still come if they were called Hamilton?

...

Unrelated to all of that, my Toronto Arrows rugby folded this off-season 😭. So I'll probably fill a bit of that void with some more Forge matches than I've been getting to in the last few years.

 

[CDNFootballer]

53 minutes ago, Mihairokov said:

The point was less why they moved and more the fact that they only half-filled the arena in Langley and are now drawing crowds three times the size downtown. I'm not convinced on Langley being the best spot for VFC and would have far preferred something in Burnaby or Surrey instead. Anyway!

Well, not 3 times but they have averaged higher attendance in Vancouver City :

Warriors have averaged 6900 in 2022 and 8100 in 2023.

The team in Langley averaged 3200 in 2017 and 3500 in 2018, their last before the move.

Like mentioned, Aquilini wanted more usage to their existing arena downtown. When they moved, it became very very easy to get tickets for free for games as they try to fill a big arena. Costs in Vancouver were a big reason the Vancouver Giants moved to Langley. Its a tradeoff.

VFC had tried hard for Surrey previously, Langley wasn't a last minute thing. Burnaby (Swangard) is way to close to the Whitecaps market imo and wouldn't have worked out.

VFC in Langley needs a few years there before making a judgement on whether thenm having a stadium there will work longterm. One year is not enough for a reliable assessment. Lets see how year 2 and 3 go, with some real marketing instead of the virtually nonexistent marketing for the first year. People have to know about the club to increase attendance and hopefully they realize the work and $ they need to spend to grow the base over the next few years.

 

[SpursFlu]

This is kinda a strange comparison. When it comes to the Warriors. There is no second Lacross team in the Lower Mainland. So if the argument is let's rewind 15 years and say what's a better place for the Whitecaps to play in the MLS? BC Place or the Langley Events Center? Then that's the apples to argument and obviously it's downtown Vancouver. Also since the Warriors moved downtown the NLL has received way more general exposure and Aquilini has pumped a  bunch of miney in to marketing and really good marketing at that. The other owner if I recall did not have all those resources.

Also, I can't stress this old argument  from me enough that if you're not from the area you really don't get. 2024 Langley is not 2014 Langley. It's not even 2023 Langley. The growth in the area is staggering. And it's not stopping anytime soon as far as I can see. You can't even give me the old.. its demographics. It's a bunch of hockey players and soccer haters. No it's not. Trust me. Yes it's more suburban and hopefully it stays that way because God knows the areas suitable for families keep shrinking away in this country but is not your grandparents suburbs. It's still got connectivity 

Edited February 8 by SpursFlu

[Kingston]

9 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

This is kinda a strange comparison. When it comes to the Warriors. There is no second Lacross team in the Lower Mainland. So if the argument is let's rewind 15 years and say what's a better place for the Whitecaps to play in the MLS? BC Place or the Langley Events Center? Then that's the apples to argument and obviously it's downtown Vancouver.

A bit of an aside, but didn't the Whitecaps push hard for permission to build their own downtown stadium before being denied and having to settle for BC Place?

[SpursFlu]

24 minutes ago, Kingston said:

A bit of an aside, but didn't the Whitecaps push hard for permission to build their own downtown stadium before being denied and having to settle for BC Place?

Yah in Gastown. Owning your own Stadium is the name of the game

[Watchmen]

29 minutes ago, Kingston said:

A bit of an aside, but didn't the Whitecaps push hard for permission to build their own downtown stadium before being denied and having to settle for BC Place?

Yes. They attempted to build in two different locations downtown (the first a place the city recommended before the city changed its mind and the second on land they already owned). But the NIMBYs came out in full force with ridiculous reasons (and backed by real estate developers who wanted the land for condos). Ultimately the city agreed to let them build...on land owned by the CP Rail, leaving the team to have to work out a deal with them. They might have eventually been able to get it done, but not in the time frame required to secure an MLS team. So they opted for a refurbished BC Place, but had to lock in to a long-term contract to do it.

[Ansem]

On 2/2/2024 at 10:11 AM, BigBadBorto said:

Interesting discussion about metro population size needed for a CPL team..  Too big a city like Toronto and Vancouver and it doesn't seem to work (at least not yet), some bigger cities like Ottawa and Hamilton (and Calgary somewhat) also seem to work, but Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much.  Halifax works and Victoria so-so..  All this really tells me is that there is no formula for success or failure when looking at metro size.  Obviously there is a minimum size needed.. maybe it's 200k or 300k - I don't know.   

In retrospect, the league tried to apply a single formula to all its market and that didn't them a great start as the response wasn't consistent across the board. I think there's an awareness of this now and each location must be approached with a customized approach fit to that location.

I think CSB maneuvered to kill the "exclusivity" clause so they can take control of distribution to get more visibility and raise attendance which would translate in more sponsors. Knowing that over 2/3 of Canadians live outside the 3 cities - they need that visibility to make their future expansions more successful.

I changed my mind a bit so I think they need to grow the Prairies, Southern Ontario and Quebec while focusing on making the league more visible. The product is good, presentation can be improved and raising awareness by making the games more available should prove effective.

A good strategy for expansion (no particular order)

• Regina
• Kitchener-Waterloo
• London
• Windsor
• Quebec City
• Return to Edmonton
• Moncton
• Kelowna

As for the big 3 cities, I'd say :

• give Vancouver FC 3 more years to see where they are - it's too soon to gauge them. Betting on the valley could prove being the right decision long term
• Toronto : The current state of York United will never fly in this city, Woodbine + rebrand is the bare minimum that needs to happen. It can be both very niche and successful at the same time - it`s all about how owners approach this if they get the above.
• Montreal : Quebec City needs to happen first and be a resounding success on all level. Quebec being different enough than the rest, if CPL works in the capital, eyeballs and media from Montreal Island will pay attention. As a former Montrealer, there's plenty of casuals to go around on the island if the location, venue and state of the league is right. A Quebec City rivalry is just bonus on top of it, so I'd resist Laval - leave that island to the 2 PLSQ clubs already there.

[Kingston]

44 minutes ago, Ansem said:

In retrospect, the league tried to apply a single formula to all its market and that didn't them a great start as the response wasn't consistent across the board. I think there's an awareness of this now and each location must be approached with a customized approach fit to that location.

I think CSB maneuvered to kill the "exclusivity" clause so they can take control of distribution to get more visibility and raise attendance which would translate in more sponsors. Knowing that over 2/3 of Canadians live outside the 3 cities - they need that visibility to make their future expansions more successful.

I changed my mind a bit so I think they need to grow the Prairies, Southern Ontario and Quebec while focusing on making the league more visible. The product is good, presentation can be improved and raising awareness by making the games more available should prove effective.

A good strategy for expansion (no particular order)

• Regina
• Kitchener-Waterloo
• London
• Windsor
• Quebec City
• Return to Edmonton
• Moncton
• Kelowna

As for the big 3 cities, I'd say :

• give Vancouver FC 3 more years to see where they are - it's too soon to gauge them. Betting on the valley could prove being the right decision long term
• Toronto : The current state of York United will never fly in this city, Woodbine + rebrand is the bare minimum that needs to happen. It can be both very niche and successful at the same time - it`s all about how owners approach this if they get the above.
• Montreal : Quebec City needs to happen first and be a resounding success on all level. Quebec being different enough than the rest, if CPL works in the capital, eyeballs and media from Montreal Island will pay attention. As a former Montrealer, there's plenty of casuals to go around on the island if the location, venue and state of the league is right. A Quebec City rivalry is just bonus on top of it, so I'd resist Laval - leave that island to the 2 PLSQ clubs already there.

You raise some very good points, the biggest of which may be the observation that the league has now had time to see what works and what doesn't.  This doesn't guarantee future teams will actually do what they should, but they do have examples to learn from.

Out of curiosity, why Regina instead of Saskatoon?

A question for the league in all expansion is how big they can actually be.  "As big as possible" I'm sure is the answer but the farther down the list of possible sites you go, the more likely you are to have questionable teams.  We already have eight teams.  Would it be so bad if we added Quebec City and Edmonton and then stopped at ten?  (With a couple of possible markets still open in case, say, York needs to become KW?)  Just prioritizing stability over size?

[Cheeta]

Haven't seen this brought up anywhere but it's been in my head for a while.

Our Mexican investors in York would have know all about the league's troubles with Mediapro.  Along with a whole lot of other things the league would have had to provide during discussions/disclosure.  And still, they bought in.  They weren't scared off.

I find that both interesting and encouraging.