Footscray Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) Yeah I think you would get a few hundred coming in from Penticton and Vernon if you promoted it well maybe more if you ran some coaches with a local pub, probably even easier if it has Okanagan branding. It's not a lot different from driving from north calgary down to spruce meadows. Probably not for the casuals but your hardcore soccer people would do it. Vernon has a big soccer community... Penticton seems to be not so great lately but that may be down to their local youth soccer association collapsing. I think Kelowna could draw 2-3k to start with with a good marketing effort and try to build from there. 5k off the hop seems unlikely but who knows, I'm just spitballing. I don't believe any people from Kamloops would come in to support a Kelowna team.... it's a lot smaller than Kelowna now (over 100k metro) after many years of being larger and the big smoke in the interior. Very subjective on my end but sense a lot of resentment there with Kelowna having outgrown their city so significantly and the valley with over 400,000 people increasingly become the focal point of the interior for services. Edited January 29 by Footscray SpursFlu and CDNFootballer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, Kingston said: Vancouver metro: 2 842 000. Here's the Statscan list of census metro areas (generally those over 100 000) and census areas (generally those under 100 000) https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501 It has the estimated population as of July 1 of each year and is normally updated in the following February (meaning the 2023 update is due out any day). So Vancouver might be closer to 2 900 000 as of today and Kelowna more like 240 000 but the general numbers are still very useful. And you expect everyone from Vancouver to drive to Vancouver for a Hockey, Football or soccer match? That seems crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Footscray said: Yeah I think you would get a few hundred coming in from Penticton and Vernon if you promoted it well maybe more if you ran some coaches with a local pub, probably even easier if it has Okanagan branding. It's not a lot different from driving from north calgary down to spruce meadows. Probably not for the casuals but your hardcore soccer people would do it. Vernon has a big soccer community... Penticton seems to be not so great lately but that may be down to their local youth soccer association collapsing. I think Kelowna could draw 2-3k to start with with a good marketing effort and try to build from there. 5k off the hop seems unlikely but who knows, I'm just spitballing. I don't believe any people from Kamloops would come in to support a Kelowna team.... it's a lot smaller than Kelowna now (over 100k metro) after many years of being larger and the big smoke in the interior. Very subjective on my end but sense a lot of resentment there with Kelowna having outgrown their city so significantly and the valley with over 400,000 people increasingly become the focal point of the interior for services. I think Penticton once upon a time had a big Portuguese community that's why soccer was pretty popular there back in the day. Salmon Arm has a pocket of folks if I recall that are in to soccer. The Northern part of the Okanagan, West Kelowna to Vernon. That's really the focal point for sure and where all the growth is thru Lake Country which kinda links the 2 communities together. I know Kamloops is a bit far to rely on them but if they ever improved transport especially that ridiculous hwy from Kamloops to Vernon, there could be more synergy Edited January 29 by SpursFlu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 17 minutes ago, SpursFlu said: And you expect everyone from Vancouver to drive to Vancouver for a Hockey, Football or soccer match? That seems crazy I'm using the metro population as the catchment area for the team. Statscan's definition of a metro area is a central city plus communities with a significant commuting population into that central city. If people are willing to commute daily it seems reasonable that they would also drive/transit in occasionally for sports and other cultural events. I imagine a dot map of spectators' home addresses would be denser closer to the stadium but I think using the commutershed is a reasonable catchment area for a team. None of Vernon, Penticton, Salmon Arm, or Kamloops are included in Kelowna's metro area. I'm puzzled why you would think it's crazy for people to come in from around the Vancouver metro area to watch a soccer game but expect people to drive two hours from Kamloops to watch a game in Kelowna. Edited January 29 by Kingston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Kingston said: I'm using the metro population as the catchment area for the team. Statscan's definition of a metro area is a central city plus communities with a significant commuting population into that central city. If people are willing to commute daily it seems reasonable that they would also drive/transit in occasionally for sports and other cultural events. I imagine a dot map of spectators' home addresses would be denser closer to the stadium but I think using the commutershed is a reasonable catchment area for a team. Remember in the office when Michael drove in to the river because the GPS told him to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, SpursFlu said: Remember in the office when Michael drove in to the river because the GPS told him to Not a show I ever watched. Although I've visited, I'm not from Vancouver. Maybe there's something weird there. But the skytrain goes through or to Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond, and Surrey. Plus all the other ways of getting around in a major city. Is it that strange to think people would travel for a pro sports game? Back when I lived in Brampton I drove and/or took transit to Toronto all the time for Argos, Jays, soccer, Leafs (on the rare occasions I could get a ticket), theatre, and whatever. I wasn't the only one. Is Vancouver unlike our other major metro areas? If your answer is simply "that's my opinion" then that's fine but I'd be interested in hearing your reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Kingston said: Not a show I ever watched. Although I've visited, I'm not from Vancouver. Maybe there's something weird there. But the skytrain goes through or to Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond, and Surrey. Plus all the other ways of getting around in a major city. Is it that strange to think people would travel for a pro sports game? Back when I lived in Brampton I drove and/or took transit to Toronto all the time for Argos, Jays, soccer, Leafs (on the rare occasions I could get a ticket), theatre, and whatever. I wasn't the only one. Is Vancouver unlike our other major metro areas? If your answer is simply "that's my opinion" then that's fine but I'd be interested in hearing your reasoning. I guess what I'm trying to say is there are areas within that population base you're referencing that is a much tougher or unpleasant commute to BC Place or Rogers Arena than connecting communities in the Okanagan. Just adding a bit of art to the science. If you want to use the skytrain web as a reference of places with the region you referenced as a reasonable convenient commute and it's as good as any other. You're excluding, SDelta, SSurrey, Cloverdale, Langley, Aldergrove, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows. So if you apply the same or similar criteria to Vancouver as you do Kelowna, you'd have chop off about 750k people from that population of Vancouver Edited January 29 by SpursFlu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mihairokov Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) If your base population is ~250K and you're relying on people who live up to an hour's drive away I have bad news for you if you think they'll all come out every second weekend to watch what is admittedly lower level professional footy. People drive for Canucks and, like, the Jays. I think there is definitely appetite for professional-level sports in markets that are underserved (Halifax as one, KWC and London as others) but there needs to be a wide base of not only enough people but enough other economic indicators for it to make sense. Average age, average incomes, disposable incomes, etc. Edited January 29 by Mihairokov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicero Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 A stadium would likely be on the side of the city closest to Vernon, so I could see some people coming down. Maybe a handful from Penticton, but I've said before, I suspect the radii of CPL fanbases is pretty small. Some diehard on this board is now going to say, "But I drive 85 minutes each way!", yeah, you do, and maybe three or four other fanatics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, Mihairokov said: If your base population is ~250K and you're relying on people who live up to an hour's drive away I have bad news for you if you think they'll all come out every second weekend to watch what is admittedly lower level professional footy. People drive for Canucks and, like, the Jays. I think there is definitely appetite for professional-level sports in markets that are underserved (Halifax as one, KWC and London as others) but there needs to be a wide base of not only enough people but enough other economic indicators for it to make sense. Average age, average incomes, disposable incomes, etc. Yes. If population was the only factor then York would be outdrawing Halifax by a large margin. My worry with Kelowna is that population would be a severely limiting factor even if the other potential obstacles to a successful soccer team were adequately addressed. It's just over half the size of Victoria and under half the size of Halifax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicero Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, Kingston said: Yes. If population was the only factor then York would be outdrawing Halifax by a large margin. My worry with Kelowna is that population would be a severely limiting factor even if the other potential obstacles to a successful soccer team were adequately addressed. It's just over half the size of Victoria and under half the size of Halifax. The population is also not nearly as rooted to Kelowna as either of those markets are to their city. There are many big city transplants who likely bring their disdain for anything 'minor league' with them. It would be on my list, but not at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aird25 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Kingston said: Victoria (423 000) is stuck at just over 3000 fans per game. That's not an immediate problem but it isn't home free. Langford's population was ~40k when the club started, and the club has stated that the majority of fans that attend games were from Langford. Anecdotally I think there's some truth to that, though I have no clue how much. I'm not saying there's no correlation between population and attendance, but you just have to look at the existing teams (Halifax vs York the most blatant) to realize you can't simply extrapolate attendance from population. Many other factors are at play, and I don't know why you've chosen 500k as a floor for success Admiral Murray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurndenAce Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Kingston said: If you think people will drive 45 minutes (Vernon), 1 hour (Penticton), 2 hours (Kamloops), and 1.5 hours (Salmon Arm) in meaningful numbers on a regular basis, then yes. Worth throwing in that I commute an hour and a half both was to watch Forge play. It's not out of the question that other people would be willing to do the same, especially in smaller communities where there is little else going on sports-wise. Cicero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Aird25 said: Langford's population was ~40k when the club started, and the club has stated that the majority of fans that attend games were from Langford. Anecdotally I think there's some truth to that, though I have no clue how much. I'm not saying there's no correlation between population and attendance, but you just have to look at the existing teams (Halifax vs York the most blatant) to realize you can't simply extrapolate attendance from population. Many other factors are at play, and I don't know why you've chosen 500k as a floor for success I'd be shocked if over half the fans were actually from Langford. Do you have a link for that, by any chance? To be clear, I'm not thinking you're making stuff up or anything negative toward you, but I'd be very interested in seeing the details from the club. And, yes, I agree and have said as much that it isn't just a population game. Something will always be the limiting factor, however, and having too small a population means the drawing potential will limit your crowds even if you do everything else very well. My 500k number is somewhat arbitrary and not meant to be taken as firm. However, the league itself said teams will need crowds of at least 5000 to make a go of it long term. Having an attendance of 1% of your drawing area seems like a difficult but achievable goal for a well run soccer team in Canada. There can always be exceptions but it's better to give teams a higher chance of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoccMan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 21 minutes ago, BurndenAce said: Worth throwing in that I commute an hour and a half both was to watch Forge play. It's not out of the question that other people would be willing to do the same, especially in smaller communities where there is little else going on sports-wise. Where are you driving from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, BurndenAce said: Worth throwing in that I commute an hour and a half both was to watch Forge play. It's not out of the question that other people would be willing to do the same, especially in smaller communities where there is little else going on sports-wise. And I sometimes go two hours to Ottawa or two and a half to Toronto and watch games. I just don't think enough people would on a regular basis, year after year, for the team to count on them meaningfully moving the attendance number. A hundred dedicated fans like you doesn't make the team viable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mihairokov Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Kingston said: I'd be shocked if over half the fans were actually from Langford. Do you have a link for that, by any chance? To be clear, I'm not thinking you're making stuff up or anything negative toward you, but I'd be very interested in seeing the details from the club. And, yes, I agree and have said as much that it isn't just a population game. Something will always be the limiting factor, however, and having too small a population means the drawing potential will limit your crowds even if you do everything else very well. My 500k number is somewhat arbitrary and not meant to be taken as firm. However, the league itself said teams will need crowds of at least 5000 to make a go of it long term. Having an attendance of 1% of your drawing area seems like a difficult but achievable goal for a well run soccer team in Canada. There can always be exceptions but it's better to give teams a higher chance of success. This really highlights the difficulty in Canada (and less so in the US, although their regional flights are far cheaper) of travelling support culture, or the distances between teams being so much that it's a hassle to travel for events. The nearest team to Ottawa is a 4hr30 mins drive - in England you can reach any EPL stadium from London aside from Newcastle in that time, and that's the closest team for a city that is very central in this country to its population base. Travelling fans can be veru numerous in some instances in Europe and balance out crowd sizes more than they otherwise would. When I went to a match in rural Belgium last season the travelling Liege support were nearly a fourth of the total crowd... In an ideal world we'd add three or four more Southern Ontario teams so that fans can actually travel to 4-8 away matches a year and build that infrastructure and culture (and, crowd sizes!, sometimes). York's numbers might be marginally better if Kitchener or London had travelling crowds visiting two-four times a season. Anyway, I think the floor for CMA population is 400K, not counting things like other indicators I mentioned earlier, just IMO. Edited January 29 by Mihairokov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watchmen Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 City size matters, but I think stadium location is the biggest factor. If Kelowna's stadium isn't right downtown (and I don't know the area or proposed location) it's on trouble. Footscray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 hours ago, Kingston said: Great. So based on it's current average growth rate of about 5500 people per year, in only 48 years it will reach half a million and be a good candidate for a CPL team. I don't give a shit either way (whether they put a team there or not). Just stating a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurndenAce Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, SoccMan said: Where are you driving from ? Toronto. And if I want to be technical, half the time I'll take the GO Train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoccMan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, BurndenAce said: Toronto. And if I want to be technical, half the time I'll take the GO Train. Nice well done to you , back in the old CSL days in the late 1980’s early 90’s I would drive a few times a season to go watch the Hamilton Steelers play at Brian Timmins stadium with a couple of friends. I was a fan of my hometown North York Rockets who played at Ether Shiner stadiums which was a 15 minute walk to where I lived , but still would travel every so often to Hamilton to watch the Steelers play at that 5000 seat stadium right next to Ivor Wayne stadium, that when is was packed there was no better atmosphere in that two sided little stadium. To think that we had a coast to coast league back then and to think of what it might be today if it had survived . BurndenAce 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aird25 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Kingston said: I'd be shocked if over half the fans were actually from Langford. Do you have a link for that, by any chance? To be clear, I'm not thinking you're making stuff up or anything negative toward you, but I'd be very interested in seeing the details from the club. And, yes, I agree and have said as much that it isn't just a population game. Something will always be the limiting factor, however, and having too small a population means the drawing potential will limit your crowds even if you do everything else very well. My 500k number is somewhat arbitrary and not meant to be taken as firm. However, the league itself said teams will need crowds of at least 5000 to make a go of it long term. Having an attendance of 1% of your drawing area seems like a difficult but achievable goal for a well run soccer team in Canada. There can always be exceptions but it's better to give teams a higher chance of success. I don't recall exactly, but that's what they said. If I find some time later I'll have a look Kingston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unnamed Trialist Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, Aird25 said: I don't recall exactly, but that's what they said. If I find some time later I'll have a look I recall a similar stat, actually. Langford is really a bit of a way from Victoria, it is not a natural outing. It's on the limits of Greater Victoria, about as far as you can get from a population centre. Yes, folks in Victoria drive all over the place, it is common enough, but it makes sense for Pacific to draw 2000 from the 35,000 living in Langford, it's only 5-6% of the population 14 times a year. Admiral Murray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aird25 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said: I recall a similar stat, actually. Langford is really a bit of a way from Victoria, it is not a natural outing. It's on the limits of Greater Victoria, about as far as you can get from a population centre. Yes, folks in Victoria drive all over the place, it is common enough, but it makes sense for Pacific to draw 2000 from the 35,000 living in Langford, it's only 5-6% of the population 14 times a year. I think Langford is at least 50k now, and the whole Westshore is closing in on 100k if not already there. You're right that it's somewhat isolated from Victoria proper by the harbours though, and the stadium is located on the far end of Langford which is why I don't think a huge number of people are making the commute out to Starlight. If they could just improve transit and traffic to the Westshore you'd likely see an attendance spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBadBorto Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Interesting discussion about metro population size needed for a CPL team.. Too big a city like Toronto and Vancouver and it doesn't seem to work (at least not yet), some bigger cities like Ottawa and Hamilton (and Calgary somewhat) also seem to work, but Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much. Halifax works and Victoria so-so.. All this really tells me is that there is no formula for success or failure when looking at metro size. Obviously there is a minimum size needed.. maybe it's 200k or 300k - I don't know. I think what new potential owner should do (and maybe CPL should require this) is to ask for deposits on season tickets to gauge interest. $80 or $100 deposit (towards season ticket for potential team) from fans will see what the real level of interest is. I would think you need at least 3,000 season tickets to reach 5,000 average attendance (the potential break even attendance as far as we can tell), so if you can get 3k deposits, that would go a long way to proving there is enough interest in a team, and then you look at all the other factors that need to work (stadium, travel, corporate sponsors, etc..). If on the other hand all you get is 1,500 deposits then it is a sign it may not work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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