CPL new teams speculation

[SpursFlu]

4 minutes ago, nolando said:

I've brought youth teams up there to play in summer. It's sweaty and often slows the game down significantly  through fatigue, muscle cramping, etc. but it's clearly feasible. Getting people to give up summer recreation to pay to come and see you play in that sunshine is a whole other matter.

Yah I use to play up there. It's hot. Always has been.

I'd go there to watch in the heat. I love the heat. Probably smart to play night games in July, August because everyone's golfing or on the lake during the day anyways. 

Kelowna hands down would be the best away game. With so many folks moving there and the culture up there I think a CFL team would kick ass also. 

[BearcatSA]

A few months ago, my source very close to the Kelowna business and tourism community hadn't heard of any serious efforts from an ownership group wanting to set up a franchise, and I have heard nothing since.  And this broadcasting controversy would certainly add to the reluctance to invest.

[Footscray]

Stands need to be covered.  Heat issues for the players can be addressed by playing later in the day or evening. The baseball diamonds they are talking about using downtown (elk's and king's stadium) don't have a parking lot so the plan was to redevelop almost the whole block by also levelling and moving the adjacent curling club somewhere else.  I think it's gonna take time as the site isn't ready to go like the one in Langley and the ball diamonds will need to be replaced somewhere else with similar bleachers unless they do it without parking.  If they are expecting the city to fully pay for it it won't be a smooth process as people will complain.  And I have a hard time seeing someone come in and pay for it themselves.  

The Apple Bowl is the other option and it's not a good facility, the league would fail there.  It's outside the downtown core, has a huge track between fans and field, minimal parking, one crumbling tiny old stand and a bunch of metal bleachers that melt your flesh in august.  It's been growing fast here, the last census was 222k metro in 2021 and it wouldn't surprise me much if the metro population is over 250k in the next one with another 150-200K within an hour drive between Vernon, Penticton and other nearby towns so I have no doubt that some kind of semi-pro or pro sports team will be in the valley within the next 20 years and it would be good to be first.  

Among the longer time holdover folks here, a lot of classic small town canada traditional hockey, CFL/NFL crowd.  The population has probably about doubled in 25 years so there are lots of transplants and a growing immigrant community and socially it's changed a lot, but it'll take a few years to grow a season ticket base and an owner who is OK with that.

I wouldn't be too worried about getting people to give up summer recreation time... I don't think the white upper middle class hockey families who are cruising the lake in their powerboat are going to be their target audience.  Most people here don't have a powerboat or spent their time doing the same things tourists do in the summer and are looking for entertainment options so I do think if the league is healthy a team here would do well in the long run. 

Edited January 28 by Footscray

[BearcatSA]

25 minutes ago, Footscray said:

Most people here don't have a powerboat or spent their time doing the same things tourists do in the summer and are looking for entertainment options so I do think if the league is healthy a team here would do well in the long run. 

LOTS of local people are on or in the close vicinity of water in some manner for recreation, regardless of whether or not they have a speed boat.  There are also many more recreation options for the whole family if they have the time to do it, which makes the summer pro sports ticket in BC and elsewhere in Canada a very competitive market for limited dollars and time.

With air conditioned Prospera Place, Kelowna might be more successful with a CEBL franchise, especially if the men's Olympians fulfill their promise in Paris this summer.

 

 

Edited January 28 by BearcatSA

[Watchmen]

1 hour ago, BearcatSA said:

A few months ago, my source very close to the Kelowna business and tourism community hadn't heard of any serious efforts from an ownership group wanting to set up a franchise, and I have heard nothing since.  And this broadcasting controversy would certainly add to the reluctance to invest.

And I know some people on here have speculated on it, but I've heard pretty consistently that Friend/SixFive don't want to own this one. Two teams is already more than enough.

[SoccMan]

It’s kind of funny listening to all these reasons why a CPL team might not work in Kelowna , especially the ones having to do with summers are short and people would rather be out enjoying other summer activities . I get it but this can apply to everywhere in Canada . Moreover, I still don’t think it’s unrealistic to to try and get 5000 people on average to 16 or so home games for a club in this league to be viable in a decent size market . 

[BearcatSA]

59 minutes ago, SoccMan said:

It’s kind of funny listening to all these reasons why a CPL team might not work in Kelowna , especially the ones having to do with summers are short and people would rather be out enjoying other summer activities . I get it but this can apply to everywhere in Canada . Moreover, I still don’t think it’s unrealistic to to try and get 5000 people on average to 16 or so home games for a club in this league to be viable in a decent size market . 

The international airport is also one of the fasted growing in NA, which is a big plus but... there is no serious ownership group on the horizon is what I have heard from my source.

[Stanley]

2 hours ago, SoccMan said:

It’s kind of funny listening to all these reasons why a CPL team might not work in Kelowna , especially the ones having to do with summers are short and people would rather be out enjoying other summer activities .. 

Besides, summers aren't short in Kelowna.

[Mihairokov]

13 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

A few months ago, my source very close to the Kelowna business and tourism community hadn't heard of any serious efforts from an ownership group wanting to set up a franchise, and I have heard nothing since.  And this broadcasting controversy would certainly add to the reluctance to invest.

Which is why Kelowna is more people spitballing than there being any actual smoke. Expansion rumours would have a lot more heft to them if we had rumours of owners being interested, meetings being set up....but it's mostly people looking at spots on a map and wishcasting. Like yeah, I think there should absolutely be a team in KWC, but I don't think i've heard or seen anything to imply that they're close to happening.

Edited January 28 by Mihairokov

[Watchmen]

11 minutes ago, Mihairokov said:

Which is why Kelowna is more people spitballing than there being any actual smoke. Expansion rumours would have a lot more heft to them if we had rumours of owners being interested, meetings being set up....but it's mostly people looking at spots on a map and wishcasting. Like yeah, I think there should absolutely be a team in KWC, but I don't think i've heard or seen anything to imply that they're close to happening.

Well, it's a bit more than "picking a spot on a map" with Kelowna. Friend has spoken about it as a possible location in the past, and it does sound like there's been some minimal exploratory work on a stadium. It's just none of it is far along and the critical piece of finding an owner doesn't seem that close.

[Aird25]

I thought Cavalry's owners were looking at Kelowna?

Regardless, it would be a great place for away games. I always have fun when I visit friends there

[SpursFlu]

I wonder how they have a soccer team in Arizona or Houston or Las Vegas. I think before they put a team in Kelowna they should send an exploratory committee to those places. They can learn best practices and survival tactics on how to play soccer outside in the summer when it's hot. 

For a long time the big question was how can have a professional soccer league in Canada because it's too cold but people didn't think about how can we have a professional soccer league in Canada because it's too hot? Lots of work to be done

Edited January 28 by SpursFlu

[Mihairokov]

55 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

Well, it's a bit more than "picking a spot on a map" with Kelowna. Friend has spoken about it as a possible location in the past, and it does sound like there's been some minimal exploratory work on a stadium. It's just none of it is far along and the critical piece of finding an owner doesn't seem that close.

Kelowna is also one of the favourite CFL expansion spots for online discussions, which is even less likely than CPL expansion these days.

Edited January 28 by Mihairokov

[Footscray]

19 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

LOTS of local people are on or in the close vicinity of water in some manner for recreation, regardless of whether or not they have a speed boat.  There are also many more recreation options for the whole family if they have the time to do it, which makes the summer pro sports ticket in BC and elsewhere in Canada a very competitive market for limited dollars and time.

With air conditioned Prospera Place, Kelowna might be more successful with a CEBL franchise, especially if the men's Olympians fulfill their promise in Paris this summer.

I mean, people for sure go to the lake/beach for a dip on scorching days for sure, but that's like a couple hour thing once in a while, it doesn't take over the whole day or stop us from doing other stuff or even reflect anywhere near half our time off work.  Or go golfing once in a while, or hiking or biking... same deal.  Everybody likes the lake and uses it and does other outdoor stuff, but what I'm saying is it's not like everybody is so obsessed with going there or spends so much time in the water that it will affect your attendance one night every two weeks.  I'm right in the thick of elementary school years with my kids and so I can't speak for the wealthy retirees and rich people who aren't working class, but most people are for sure looking for stuff to take their kids to and get out, date nights, etc, and a lot of the places we go the other 10 months a year are swarmed with tourists in July and August so I think another entertainment option would do well.  Any sort of family things like bowling, movies, H20, rockets, etc are always pretty busy with that demographic.  

The key would be scheduling evening games when it's cooler.  Ppl tend to be active a little later in the day when it's really scorching, and It's so nice to go out at 7/8pm in kelowna for a drink or a bite on a patio when it's still 25 but the sun isn't baking down - if you go downtown around that time there are tons of people out.  A covered stadium with a beer garden would be real popular IMO, especially in that brewery area/north end.  It'll just take time to build the fanbase if it even happens.

Personally I don't know about basketball, I have a few friends who are into it, the UBCO games are supposed to be fun and the youth leagues are pretty active but nothing compared to soccer, just my own opinion but I can't see that doing very well here yet, I think it's less popular than soccer by a good margin, I think CFL football is more likely to succeed here than basketball, but getting a stadium built of that size here and on the public dime is a fantasy

Edited January 28 by Footscray

[SpursFlu]

It's the same in the Valley. There were a few afternoon games last summer I missed because I was headed to the lake with the family. That's just the reality of a Canadian summer. We like to ho out and enjoy our surroundings while we can. It's not the end of the world 

[BearcatSA]

14 hours ago, Footscray said:

I'm right in the thick of elementary school years with my kids and so I can't speak for the wealthy retirees and rich people who aren't working class, but most people are for sure looking for stuff to take their kids to and get out, date nights, etc, and a lot of the places we go the other 10 months a year are swarmed with tourists in July and August so I think another entertainment option would do well.  Any sort of family things like bowling, movies, H20, rockets, etc are always pretty busy with that demographic.  

As I have said many, many times, even on this thread alone, there is a ton of competition out there for consumers' summer recreation dollars (and time) when disposable income is tight.

 

Edited January 29 by BearcatSA

[Kingston]

21 hours ago, Mihairokov said:

Kelowna is also one of the favourite CFL expansion spots for online discussions, which is even less likely than CPL expansion these days.

In both cases, the point I can't get my mind past is this:  Kelowna metro population 235 000

To average 5000, they'd need over 2% of the population at every single game.  In other words, they'd need to be twice as popular per capita as Halifax.  I just don't see it.

[Stanley]

13 minutes ago, Kingston said:

In both cases, the point I can't get my mind past is this:  Kelowna metro population 235 000

To average 5000, they'd need over 2% of the population at every single game.  In other words, they'd need to be twice as popular per capita as Halifax.  I just don't see it.

19th largest census metro population in Canada and rapidly growing. 

[Kingston]

27 minutes ago, Stanley said:

19th largest census metro population in Canada and rapidly growing. 

Great.  So based on it's current average growth rate of about 5500 people per year, in only 48 years it will reach half a million and be a good candidate for a CPL team.

[Aird25]

24 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Great.  So based on it's current average growth rate of about 5500 people per year, in only 48 years it will reach half a million and be a good candidate for a CPL team.

When will Victoria and Halifax become good candidates?

[SpursFlu]

27 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Great.  So based on it's current average growth rate of about 5500 people per year, in only 48 years it will reach half a million and be a good candidate for a CPL team.

Plus Vernon, plus penticton, plus Kamloops, plus Salmon Arm plus all points in between 

Edited January 29 by SpursFlu

[Kingston]

14 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

When will Victoria and Halifax become good candidates?

Halifax (480 000) is a good candidate now.

Victoria (423 000) is stuck at just over 3000 fans per game.  That's not an immediate problem but it isn't home free.

Obviously I'm not drawing a hard and fast line at exactly 500 000.  The evidence of the CPL's lived experience and also basic math suggests Kelowna is too small.

I'd love to be wrong but I think the league is much better off looking at places like Quebec, KW, London, and a return to Edmonton.

Victoria is actually doing really well - they average something like 0.75% of their metro pop.  (Halifax is incredible at 1.2%.)  Only Hamilton (0.65) is even close to Victoria.  But they'd still need to increase their attendance by more than 50% to reach 5000.

Kelowna at 5000 is equivalent to Halifax at 10 000 or Victoria at 9000.  (Or the Whitecaps selling out 60 000 every game.)  It doesn't seem likely.

[Kingston]

30 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Plus Vernon, plus penticton, plus Kamloops, plus Salmon Arm plus all points in between 

If you think people will drive 45 minutes (Vernon), 1 hour (Penticton), 2 hours (Kamloops), and 1.5 hours (Salmon Arm) in meaningful numbers on a regular basis, then yes.

[SpursFlu]

50 minutes ago, Kingston said:

If you think people will drive 45 minutes (Vernon), 1 hour (Penticton), 2 hours (Kamloops), and 1.5 hours (Salmon Arm) in meaningful numbers on a regular basis, then yes.

They do for every other professional sport.

How many people live in Vancouver?

As someone who has lived in both places. I'll take a Vernon or Penticton drive to Kelowna over a Langley to downtown Vancouver any day of the week 

I actually before the hwy upgrade once upon a time, commuted from kelowna to Vernon for work and it was fine

Edited January 29 by SpursFlu

[Kingston]

2 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

They do for every other professional sport.

How many people live in Vancouver?

Vancouver metro:  2 842 000.

Here's the Statscan list of census metro areas (generally those over 100 000) and census areas (generally those under 100 000) 

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

It has the estimated population as of July 1 of each year and is normally updated in the following February (meaning the 2023 update is due out any day). 

So Vancouver might be closer to 2 900 000 as of today and Kelowna more like 240 000 but the general numbers are still very useful.