CPL new teams speculation

[red card]

On 12/31/2023 at 10:45 AM, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

That's not what the Canadian Press story implies. They could always have asked to have a correction issued if they thought Neil Davidson had misinterpreted the direct quote when he drafted the second bolded bit below:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/article-commissioner-mark-noonan-says-cpl-headed-in-the-right-direction-with/

...Noonan says the CPL owners are “probably $125-million in the hole” from developing “an ecosystem for soccer in Canada that didn’t exist.”

That includes expanding the lower-tier League1 framework from 40 teams in 2019 to 162 and creating a women’s interprovincial championship.

While Noonan expects his league to continue to have operating losses, the hope is franchise value will go up as it expands “and we get better at what we do in terms of selling sponsorship and selling tickets and media and all those sort of things that make the business go.” ...

Given information that there has probably been a $125 million cumulative loss on the CanPL/CSB project is not something a league exec would generally be expected to want to have reported like this by high profile national media outlets and is something a very experienced journalist like Neil Davidson would likely have been careful to fact check, this whole turn of events is frankly bizarre.

Given the reporting we have seen in the past year about CSB, CBA and related issues, Canadian sports media doesn't know enough about the sport and the business side of the sport to take their work at face value. That's because, there aren't any long timers who have covered the sport ex Davidson and there aren't any sports business journalists.

Lots of stuff from named and unnamed sources are often stated verbatim without adding context. Since they don't know the sport or finances in Canada or globally, they don't have other sources to counter check a narrative.

Anyway, the $125 million figure isn't exactly new. About a year ago, Noonan said $100 million has been invested by CSB into the CPL, L1 and other areas. So, now, it seems Noonan has bumped the figure to $125m.

Likewise, Noonan has previously said CSB and the CPL clubs are experiencing operating losses. So, this latest statement is saying nothing has changed on this front.

 

[longlugan]

23 minutes ago, red card said:

Given the reporting we have seen in the past year about CSB, CBA and related issues, Canadian sports media doesn't know enough about the sport and the business side of the sport to take their work at face value. That's because, there aren't any long timers who have covered the sport ex Davidson and there aren't any sports business journalists.

Lots of stuff from named and unnamed sources are often stated verbatim without adding context. Since they don't know the sport or finances in Canada or globally, they don't have other sources to counter check a narrative.

Anyway, the $125 million figure isn't exactly new. About a year ago, Noonan said $100 million has been invested by CSB into the CPL, L1 and other areas. So, now, it seems Noonan has bumped the figure to $125m.

Likewise, Noonan has previously said CSB and the CPL clubs are experiencing operating losses. So, this latest statement is saying nothing has changed on this front.

 

How dare you make sense and ruin Ozzie's warped view of the CPL.

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

A bit of a missed opportunity that the stadium wasn't expanded for that Sinclair send off game.

True, and for the upcoming Whitecaps-Tigres as well. 

I think the timing was always a bit complicated, as they had to shift the hydro lines (not just about removing a pole, it was rerouting a line), and then if they'd immediately begun, the new stands would not have been ready until well into the new season. They could be working on them now, true, but I see that in Langford they've  begun an open process of consultation on the strategic plan, meaning: public consultation, which is always going to be slower than a big ego steamrolling in one way or another.

Have to remember, in case anyone forgets, that Pacific FC put out a statement about supporting the then mayor's reelection, it was on their social media, which is something anyone with half a brain should avoid. It is also insulting to democratic process. So even if the current board is not anti-soccer (I don't think they are at all, anymore than I think that Young was super in favour), that would make any incoming council extra aware. Pacific FC is partially responsible for being such political chumps.

[Aird25]

3 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

True, and for the upcoming Whitecaps-Tigres as well. 

I think the timing was always a bit complicated, as they had to shift the hydro lines (not just about removing a pole, it was rerouting a line), and then if they'd immediately begun, the new stands would not have been ready until well into the new season. They could be working on them now, true, but I see that in Langford they've  begun an open process of consultation on the strategic plan, meaning: public consultation, which is always going to be slower than a big ego steamrolling in one way or another.

Have to remember, in case anyone forgets, that Pacific FC put out a statement about supporting the then mayor's reelection, it was on their social media, which is something anyone with half a brain should avoid. It is also insulting to democratic process. So even if the current board is not anti-soccer (I don't think they are at all, anymore than I think that Young was super in favour), that would make any incoming council extra aware. Pacific FC is partially responsible for being such political chumps.

The new mayor and council have taken a very different approach to development, and that includes the stadium. A lot more folks would have attended the CWNT game if possible, as well as the BC Lions game, and CCL games. 

I half expect the new mayor to be voted out before the effects of their changes are even noticed. Some of the bylaws they've established have completely missed the mark. There's still a lot going on in the city, but most of it was approved before they came into control. Quite a few folks are upset about the money spent to move the powerlines with no increase in stadium capacity. The same goes for things like sewer, gas and building permits. Absolutely no movement on public transportation either which really influences games 

Edited January 1 by Aird25

[BearcatSA]

"But we're still a startup … in our sixth year with two years of pandemic. You have to invest and you have to feed a startup to get it to the point where it's healthy."

I am re-quoting this because it's the important part for me.  There are positives and there are things that need to get better, but hopefully the ownership groups involved in the current lesser performing markets truly have a significantly longer game philosophy and plan in place. 

[Bison44]

If the the numbers Noonan threw around in that story are caring off investors, I guess no one told the Pasquel brothers.  This strikes me as CPL being upfront and honest about difficulties before the usual doom sayers jump out eh?  Things were positive last year, they hope to add teams, but its not all rosy and overall everyone is still in the red but its getting better.  Anyone buying into the league will get a much more detailed look at the books and the plan eh? I'm not too worried about some numbers in a year end recap story keeping millionaire investors away.  

Funny that Noonan even specifically mentions pop ups being a pathway, but bird droppings makes it sound like they are saying the opposite.  My worry is, the publc owners letting HFX put a temp pop up on the sweetest location in the city is great, but its still just a pop up and the location could get yanked out from under them eh?   If they are the big CPL success story, its a shame they havnt parlayed that into a permanent home with more seating to take advantage of the popularity of the team.   There is a reason why the league would rather have ATCO, or starlight situations eh?? Even adding the field to the Prairieland grandstand (sounded like a good idea)....those things are concrete soccer infrastructure badly needed in this country.  

[Stoppage Time]

There is a radio program on Sportsnet. Maybe directing a few suggestions to Mr. Mayenknecht would encourage him to take a look at the CPL and CSB business and money angles. That would be a good exploration.

• THE SPORT MARKET

  Saturday 9:00AM-1:00PM

  The Sport Market is all about the bulls and bears of sport business. Hosted by nationally-recognized sport business commentator and marketing communications executive Tom Mayenknecht, The Sport Market goes to the dollars and cents behind the scenes to discuss the sport business stories that matter most to fans.

[SpursFlu]

Tom Mayenknecht is great to listen to if you're curious to know what someone would think in 1997. Everything that comes out of his mouth sounds like something produced by Chatgpt if you typed in talk about sports marketing 

Edited January 2 by SpursFlu

[Kingston]

On 12/30/2023 at 1:42 PM, narduch said:

But now I'm wondering if there will eventually be pressure from the US side to kick those teams out, to make room for additional home markets. Surely they will eventually reach a maximum number of teams.

Unlikely.  The three Canadian teams are a net benefit to MLS.  The league still has room to add teams (my guess is they will eventually settle on 36 and effectively become a west league and an east league).  And having a few viable but empty cities sitting around is useful when trying to squeeze stadium dollars out of local governments.

[narduch]

5 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Unlikely.  The three Canadian teams are a net benefit to MLS.  The league still has room to add teams (my guess is they will eventually settle on 36 and effectively become a west league and an east league).  And having a few viable but empty cities sitting around is useful when trying to squeeze stadium dollars out of local governments.

I don't know about that.

I think they are pretty happy with Toronto but perhaps regret Vancouver and Montreal 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

14 hours ago, Stoppage Time said:

• ...Hosted by nationally-recognized sport business commentator and marketing communications executive Tom Mayenknecht, The Sport Market goes to the dollars and cents behind the scenes to discuss the sport business stories that matter most to fans.

Think the part I have bolded would be the biggest problem on an outlet for a general mainstream audience but it is a topic that merits some quality investigative journalism given the sheer scale of the cumulative $125 million loss that has been highlighted by the league commissioner. Unfortunately, an impartial and dispassionate look at where things stand as the sixth season approaches is definitely not coming from Onesoccer for obvious reasons.

The NASL in the late 70s and early 80s had already demonstrated that a soccer league involving the major metropolitan markets across North America could draw 20,000+ crowds under the right circumstances. The problem was how to attract entire rosters of players from overseas despite competition with clubs in Europe, who could provide a high enough level of soccer to draw those sorts of crowds, without running up crippling debts. The quality of locally recruited players wasn't sufficient at that point in time. Eventually that started to change with the growth of youth and NCAA level soccer and having only a few DP and TAM type signings from overseas sufficed.

It's nothing like as obvious that there is a reason to believe that the economics of a league like CanPL can ever move beyond CHL sort of levels of popularity and franchise values with the level of soccer that can be provided when you don't have the finances to sign a player like Ryan Gauld never mind Sebatian Giovinco. It definitely doesn't help that a former fringe CMNT player like Manjrekar James thinks the grass is going to be greener on the Costa Rican side of the fence before you even start considering one of the big 5 leagues in Europe.

Thinking you can hire someone with a career that had been going so well that he was with a club like Hearts of Oak in Ghana to guide an MLS like growth curve because he was involved with that league at a similar point in its history seems like magical thinking to me. I have to seriously question whether people like Bob Young and Scott Mitchell know enough about soccer as a sport to even begin to understand why hardcore soccer fans in the GTA were not rushing out to buy York 9 season tickets back in 2019.

I strongly suspect the line of reasoning was that they had hired Paul Beirne to oversee the league's launch and that because he was involved with TFC's launch he was automatically going to be able to replicate that somehow. Think most people on here know enough about soccer to grasp that Paul Beirne simply lucked out big time in career terms by being in the right place at the right time when the LA Galaxy announced the Beckham signing. A CanPL forward line led by Cyrus Rollocks and a CFL style marketing campaign revolving around saying the word Canadian over and over again doesn't cause quite the same level of excitement amongst potential ticket buyers.

If you are an investor with dollar signs before your eyes like a cartoon character over the prospect of MLS style escalating franchise values though you can always pin it all on the ineptitude of the Baldassarras rather than questioning the validity of the original strategy and making the necessary modifications to genuinely turn things around like MLS did after their initial economic model had failed.

Edited January 2 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Kingston]

13 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

It's nothing like as obvious that there is a reason to believe that the economics of a league like CanPL can ever move beyond CHL sort of levels of popularity and franchise values with the level of soccer that can be provided when you don't have the finances to sign a player like Ryan Gauld never mind Sebatian Giovinco.

Much like the CPL, there's a very wide range of economic success (or not) in CHL teams.  

It seems evident that, although not guaranteed, the CPL can get to viable league status even if that puts them in the range of the better CHL teams rather than MLS teams.  

14 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

If you are an investor with dollar signs before your eyes like a cartoon character over the prospect of MLS style escalating franchise values though you can always pin it all on the ineptitude of the Baldassarras rather than questioning the validity of the original strategy and making the necessary modifications to genuinely turn things around like MLS did after their initial economic model had failed.

First, I'm not aware of anyone who expects the CPL to mirror MLS level franchise values.  Yes, the owners would like their teams to eventually appreciated markedly in value, but that will be longer term and proportionate to the market size.

Second, I'm curious what you're advocating about necessary modifications to the strategy.  You've frequently argued for a reduced-cost, regionalized, bus-league model for the CPL.  When MLS had financial problems early on, however, their approach (aside from finding two white knight investors to keep things going) was to increase investment and spending by building their own stadiums and introducing the DP rule.  Is that what you're now advocating?

[SpursFlu]

Someone needs to investigate the CPL and CSB? You what needs to be investigated when it comes to money? The EPL

Oz you're basically a stalker at this point. Either someone is paying you or your obsession seems unhealthy.

Everyone has their topics but you've long taken it to the extreme 

The CPL exists. It's not going anywhere. People are willing to spend their money to invest in the league who know a lot more about it then reading some article. Get over it. Wars over buddy 

 

Edited January 2 by SpursFlu

[Aird25]

1 hour ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Think the part I have bolded would be the biggest problem on an outlet for a general mainstream audience but it is a topic that merits some quality investigative journalism given the sheer scale of the cumulative $125 million loss that has been highlighted by the league commissioner. Unfortunately, an impartial and dispassionate look at where things stand as the sixth season approaches is definitely not coming from Onesoccer for obvious reasons.

The NASL in the late 70s and early 80s had already demonstrated that a soccer league involving the major metropolitan markets across North America could draw 20,000+ crowds under the right circumstances. The problem was how to attract entire rosters of players from overseas despite competition with clubs in Europe, who could provide a high enough level of soccer to draw those sorts of crowds, without running up crippling debts. The quality of locally recruited players wasn't sufficient at that point in time. Eventually that started to change with the growth of youth and NCAA level soccer and having only a few DP and TAM type signings from overseas sufficed.

It's nothing like as obvious that there is a reason to believe that the economics of a league like CanPL can ever move beyond CHL sort of levels of popularity and franchise values with the level of soccer that can be provided when you don't have the finances to sign a player like Ryan Gauld never mind Sebatian Giovinco. It definitely doesn't help that a former fringe CMNT player like Manjrekar James thinks the grass is going to be greener on the Costa Rican side of the fence before you even start considering one of the big 5 leagues in Europe.

Thinking you can hire someone with a career that had been going so well that he was with a club like Hearts of Oak in Ghana to guide an MLS like growth curve because he was involved with that league at a similar point in its history seems like magical thinking to me. I have to seriously question whether people like Bob Young and Scott Mitchell know enough about soccer as a sport to even begin to understand why hardcore soccer fans in the GTA were not rushing out to buy York 9 season tickets back in 2019.

I strongly suspect the line of reasoning was that they had hired Paul Beirne to oversee the league's launch and that because he was involved with TFC's launch he was automatically going to be able to replicate that somehow. Think most people on here know enough about soccer to grasp that Paul Beirne simply lucked out big time in career terms by being in the right place at the right time when the LA Galaxy announced the Beckham signing. A CanPL forward line led by Cyrus Rollocks and a CFL style marketing campaign revolving around saying the word Canadian over and over again doesn't cause quite the same level of excitement amongst potential ticket buyers.

If you are an investor with dollar signs before your eyes like a cartoon character over the prospect of MLS style escalating franchise values though you can always pin it all on the ineptitude of the Baldassarras rather than questioning the validity of the original strategy and making the necessary modifications to genuinely turn things around like MLS did after their initial economic model had failed.

New year, same Ozzie

[BearcatSA]

4 hours ago, Kingston said:

Unlikely.  The three Canadian teams are a net benefit to MLS.  The league still has room to add teams (my guess is they will eventually settle on 36 and effectively become a west league and an east league).  And having a few viable but empty cities sitting around is useful when trying to squeeze stadium dollars out of local governments.

Despite the clown show on the field the last couple of years, Toronto is a big market area and Vancouver is a solid one with stable ownership and some brand recognition via their cross country academy centres.  I think Montreal is fine.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

2 hours ago, Kingston said:

...was to increase investment and spending by building their own stadiums and introducing the DP rule.  Is that what you're now advocating?

Of course introducing a DP rule and signing somebody like David Beckham isn't what I am advocating. CanPL isn't similar to MLS in terms of scale of operations, so why would the solutions to make it sustainable automatically have to be in any way similar to what happened with MLS?

A city like Halifax clearly wouldn't get anywhere near MLS or probably even the USL Championship in expansion terms in an American context but it has been the one that has worked out best in a CanPL context.

The marked differences between the two leagues and in how, for example, the TFC and York 9 launches unfolded is why I described hiring Mark Noonan from Hearts of Oak to provide answers on what comes next for CanPL, apparently primarily because of his prior experience with MLS, as appearing to possibly be based on a form of magical thinking.

[Cheeta]

2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

Someone needs to investigate the CPL and CSB? You what needs to be investigated when it comes to money? The EPL

Oz you're basically a stalker at this point. Either someone is paying you or your obsession seems unhealthy.

Everyone has their topics but you've long taken it to the extreme 

The CPL exists. It's not going anywhere. People are willing to spend their money to invest in the league who know a lot more about it then reading some article. Get over it. Wars over buddy 

 

Man City's day in court is coming.  Not fast enough for all concerned but it's coming and it's going to be a doozy. 

[SpursFlu]

2 hours ago, Cheeta said:

Man City's day in court is coming.  Not fast enough for all concerned but it's coming and it's going to be a doozy. 

I kind of find it funny that some people seem obsessed with uncovering some kind of corruption within the big bad evil CSA and CPL and then gladly flip over and root along with the EPL which basically at this point amounts to the world's largest money laundering party. And not to pick on the EPL because it's pretty much across the board in Europe using football to launder foreign money. But hey, who cares because we're comfortable with that, lets bring down those bastards at the CPL

Edited January 2 by SpursFlu

[Kent]

On 1/1/2024 at 6:25 AM, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

The point I have been making is that insisting on a permanent stadium solution being sorted out up front makes expansion more difficult than it needs to be and appears somewhat odd when their biggest success story so far has been in the market where they did not follow that strategy.

Common sense would dictate that it's likely to be a lot easier to persuade a munipality to donate some land for a temporary popup for x number of years as a trial run for both parties than it is to ask city and provincial governments for $25 million up front for something like the Prairieland stadium.

There's an argument to be made that a new entry in the province of Quebec, to name the most obvious example, would inherently add so much to the league's overall footprint and sponsorphip possibilities that there's no compelling reason why the existing investors should expect a large expansion fee in that context if the league really does have an independent club model.

Somebody being willing to take the financial risk associated with entering a league that is "probably $125 million in the hole" at this point with a temporary pop-up approach should arguably be enough in a Quebec context. It's clearly not about independent soccer clubs at this point though, it's about trying to emulate MLS's at one point near exponential franchise value growth with the 2026 co-hosting providing the reason to still believe it can happen for them as well.

I didn't say anything about permanent vs temporary. All I was saying was that in order to expand the league into a city, there needs to be investors and a place to play (that the investors are happy with). I didn't realize this was such a controversial point. And I certainly didn't know that the CPL has been saying no to a bunch of investors in mid sized cities because those investors were asking if they can build something temporary or use a university stadium. I missed all that news.

[Bison44]

You may not get the channel BBTB watches, its in the specialty package, Birdshit news...all birdshit all the time.  It is kind of funny that the CPL brass cant manufacture another Halifax situation out of thin air to push the league forward.  And its also funny that he says its great, you know a model we should encourage when Halifax only has temp grounds etc because it worked for them.  Ignoring that Y9 and FCE and their problems with getting their stadium situation figured out damn near sunk both of them.  

And Kingston, you should know by now he never provides answers just biting insightful questions/statements that are designed to bring us back to reality as a favor to us as our true friend.  Noonan is terrible, Young and Mitchell dont know anything about soccer or business, its all a vanity project for those guys and impacts negatively on soccer as a whole in Canada, etc etc.  Ughh, why bother eh? Its been the same song and dance from him for 7-8 years.  

[Watchmen]

11 hours ago, narduch said:

I don't know about that.

I think they are pretty happy with Toronto but perhaps regret Vancouver and Montreal 

I don't think they regret either. I do think they'd prefer Vancouver hadn't spent a decade being poorly managed. But I think both markets were part of a wave of expansion that kicked the league up a level. Seattle/Toronto/Vancouver/Portland/Montreal is maybe the most important run of expansion in the leagues history: major markets that love the sport with stadiums right downtown. It showed what the league could be.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

14 hours ago, Kent said:

I didn't say anything about permanent vs temporary. All I was saying was that in order to expand the league into a city, there needs to be investors and a place to play (that the investors are happy with). I didn't realize this was such a controversial point. And I certainly didn't know that the CPL has been saying no to a bunch of investors in mid sized cities because those investors were asking if they can build something temporary or use a university stadium. I missed all that news.

Given where you have said you are from originally I am suprised that you would not remember that there was a group actively looking into investing in CanPL at launch where Kitchener-Waterloo was concerned to the extent that they were holding meetings with a fan group and that it was very much in the public domain that Wilfred-Laurier's Usports stadium had been rejected by the league as a potential stadium in that context despite having a capacity of over 6000.

https://kitchener.citynews.ca/2018/03/13/dont-proper-stadium-hopes-new-regional-soccer-club-still-high-cpl/

...The Canadian Premier League says the lack of a proper venue is hurting a bid by the region’s soccer fans for a club of their own — but it’s not over yet.

According to Canadian Premier League President Paul Beirne, our community would need a facility capable of seating between 8,000-12,000 people, and “expandable.”

Wilfrid Laurier’s University Stadium comes close, featuring a capacity of 6,500 seats...

The absence of such a stadium was also the stumbling block in London where there was also a potentially interested investor, who actively discussed the possibility of entry at launch with the league:

https://lfpress.com/sports/soccer/will-london-build-a-downtown-sports-stadium-its-a-possibility

...FC London’s founder and chief operating officer, Ian Campbell, says he had discussions with the league last year but the financial numbers didn’t work out.

“There was the franchise fee, which is in the millions. Then there was the expectation that there would be money lost in the first few years,” Campbell said. “I also think that the travel expenses are going to be really steep. It’s expensive going to places like Victoria.”

But a major outstanding issue here is a stadium. Campbell’s wish list for the continued growth of the sport and FC London includes a dedicated soccer stadium. Right now FC London has a women’s and men’s senior team in League1 Ontario.

While the costs to get into the CPL are high, not having a stadium removes any decision — it’s simply not feasible.

“It’s just too much money,” Campbell said. “But if there were a stadium, now that might change things.”...

If a temporary pop-up in a public park was OK in a Halifax context, why was it not an option to get the show on the road in K-W and London? Strongly suspect it's because a move to an anticipated CFL stadium for a Maritimes expansion franchise was being factored in where Halifax is concerned.

In York 9's case, York Lions was initially only supposed to be a stopgap until a 12,000 seat soccer specific stadium was built by Greenpark Homes in York Region. The Baldassarras soon got cold feet where that was concerned when they struggled to attract a core home support of more than a few hundred. If at year six, York United are still there with an active capacity of not much more than 3000, why could a Usports stadium not have been the scenario for K-W in the short to medium term as well?

Edited January 3 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[SpursFlu]

When Noonan talks about GTA could he be referring to Kitchener Waterloo? I'm asking the Ontario folfs

I ask because it seems to make a lot of sense. You could actually use the over used United and actually make sense for once

[Trois Reds]

The GTA is Oakville east to Courtice, along Lake Ontario. Nothing else off the lake except Brampton and Richmond Hill.. Kitchener/Waterloo is as GTA as Kelowna is Greater Vancouver Area: an two hour drive away with 1/10th the population.

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, Trois Reds said:

The GTA is Oakville east to Courtice, along Lake Ontario. Nothing else off the lake except Brampton and Richmond Hill.. Kitchener/Waterloo is as GTA as Kelowna is Greater Vancouver Area: an two hour drive away with 1/10th the population.

Did you mean Kamloops? Kelowna is at least 4 hrs away from Vancouver Metro. Kamloops closer to 3 hrs. 

Point taken that Kitchener is not the GTA, though. But that said, I like the idea of them joining. Small markets like Victoria and Halifax have been successful and I don't think I will be convinced GTA teams can be successful until I see it. 

I think second and third tier Canadian cities are more likely to be successful, by and large. Vancouver FC does give me hope the model can be replicated in suburban Montreal, but York's struggles don't give me confidence about Toronto.