FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Unnamed Trialist]

10 hours ago, nolando said:

My hunch would be a David beats Goliath country doing well in a regional tournament or WC like Iceland or Qatar or somewhere comparable in Africa. On the other hand, it could be country nearly 200th ranked that finally had had decent coach and a competitive team and did will in the ANC or something. Must be relatively to leapfrog a lot of minnows in one fell swoop.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-wales-went-117-top-9605270

[jtpc]

How many ranking points would we net for these October result combinations:

- Loss to Mexico, draw against Jamaica, win against Panama
- Loss to Mexico, win against Jamaica, win against Panama

I'm excited to see us at 1416. With Costa Rica on a bit of a decline, it feels like it's almost inevitable that at some point during the Octagonal, we'll overtake them. A win over them at home in November could make the ranking update at the end of November very interesting!

Edited September 17, 2021 by jtpc

[Shway]

Am I the only one that believes we can beat Mexico or get a result? 
Going based on the GC match where we were missing a lot, and them not so much....I kinda like our chances with a full squad.

EDIT: also hoping Lozano is still out, as I believe he's the second best player in Concacaf right now.

Edited September 17, 2021 by Shway

[GasPed]

22 minutes ago, Shway said:

Am I the only one that believes we can beat Mexico or get a result? 
Going based on the GC match where we were missing a lot, and them not so much....I kinda like our chances with a full squad.

EDIT: also hoping Lozano is still out, as I believe he's the second best player in Concacaf right now.

Yes - I believe you are the only one.  😉

[Bison44]

Can??? Sure I guess we can.  When was the last time we beat them in Mexico??  Dont tell me, let me look it up!!  

[SpursFlu]

3 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Can??? Sure I guess we can.  When was the last time we beat them in Mexico??  Dont tell me, let me look it up!!  

Don't forget to look up Davies, David and Eustaquio's player rankings from that game

[Yoginess]

45 minutes ago, Shway said:

Am I the only one that believes we can beat Mexico or get a result? 
Going based on the GC match where we were missing a lot, and them not so much....I kinda like our chances with a full squad.

EDIT: also hoping Lozano is still out, as I believe he's the second best player in Concacaf right now.

IN Mexico, I think Canada would legitimately have a shot at it. Not likely but I could see it.

The problem is, that would require all hands on deck. I don't think we an afford to do that. 

[Cheeta]

What a business.   I'd increase our chances of a loss against Mexico in Mexico if it would increase our chances to scoop wins against Jamaica and Panama in October.  

Like I wrote, what a business.

[Joe MacCarthy]

I don't know if anyone has brought this up yet but I'm less worried about being beaten by Mexican players as I am Mexican playing conditions.  To go all out to beat or tie them (which I think is now achievable), the players might have to put out an effort against those players (and those conditions) that could jeopardize us for the next two games of that cycle.

Just thinking out loud (really have no idea) how to approach that game.  Would be quite a different scenario if there weren't two games closely after it.  I always thought Mexico away from home isn't too fearful and I think it even more now, but this is such an important away game for us.  Stealing points from them (like the US) would be such a morale booster.

This game could get ugly and not because of any world beating Mexicans but because of the strategy that we employ, and we all know Herdman is a tournament guy.  He'll sacrifice something if it's for the future good.

Anyone care to postulate a game strategy.

[Unnamed Trialist]

10 hours ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

I don't know if anyone has brought this up yet but I'm less worried about being beaten by Mexican players as I am Mexican playing conditions.  To go all out to beat or tie them (which I think is now achievable), the players might have to put out an effort against those players (and those conditions) that could jeopardize us for the next two games of that cycle.

Just thinking out loud (really have no idea) how to approach that game.  Would be quite a different scenario if there weren't two games closely after it.  I always thought Mexico away from home isn't too fearful and I think it even more now, but this is such an important away game for us.  Stealing points from them (like the US) would be such a morale booster.

This game could get ugly and not because of any world beating Mexicans but because of the strategy that we employ, and we all know Herdman is a tournament guy.  He'll sacrifice something if it's for the future good.

Anyone care to postulate a game strategy.

You can't do the high press that was successful in a few matches with B squads at GC, or vs. El Salvador. First, because at altitude you can't sustain it, you'd have to stop anyways after half an hour; and then, because it gives the rival best prepared to pass through it, more space once they do.

So you have to sit back in a tighter block and try to frustrate them for as long as possible.

I think you can play some talent as starters, hope for a few build-up plays, or counters, and try to nab a goal to get ahead and sit on the result. Typical smaller team away to a bigger one. Think it is the only solution. We try to stay with them as long as possible, and if we get behind a goal we stay patient as see if we can make it up in the final 20-25 minutes. 

I'd rest Vitória because of his card, he's the only one I'd sit in fact of those carded. 

Altitude: let's please send players directly to DF, to a camp near there, and not do the extra 5-hour flight just for the photo-op at Pearson.

[gigi riva]

13 hours ago, Shway said:

Am I the only one that believes we can beat Mexico or get a result? 
Going based on the GC match where we were missing a lot, and them not so much....I kinda like our chances with a full squad.

EDIT: also hoping Lozano is still out, as I believe he's the second best player in Concacaf right now.

It will be diffulcult especially in the altitude of Azteca and CONCACAF officials too, Every game day that Canada has had Ive gone Too Mass over at ST Joseph Catholic Church here in Guelph  since they started the Octagon matches and each time Canada has not lost , So On October 7 Ill be going to early morning mass that day.

[Jedi Ram]

20 hours ago, jtpc said:

How many ranking points would we net for these October result combinations:

- Loss to Mexico, draw against Jamaica, win against Panama
- Loss to Mexico, win against Jamaica, win against Panama

I'm excited to see us at 1416. With Costa Rica on a bit of a decline, it feels like it's almost inevitable that at some point during the Octagonal, we'll overtake them. A win over them at home in November could make the ranking update at the end of November very interesting!

This is just an estimate cause the ranking points against Jamaica and Panama depends on how they do on previous games.  This combo points is based current ranking points with no effect on prior games.

Loss to Mexico = -6.93 pts to 1409.30, draw to Jamaica = -0.17 to 1409.13, win to panama = 11.30 to 1420.60 

Loss to Mexico = -6.93 pts to 1409.30, win to Jamaica = 12.33 to 1421.63, win to panama = 11.00 to 1432.63

[Kent]

Here's a fun little thing. Here is a map of the world, with every country that was ranked ahead of Canada 7 years ago coloured blue. We were ranked 120th.

 

Here is the same map for today, ranked 51st.

 

If you are curious or want to play around, here is the website where I made the maps. This has the countries filled in from the 2nd map.

http://www.amcharts.com/visited_countries/#AT,BE,HR,CZ,DK,FR,DE,GR,HU,IE,IT,NL,NO,PL,PT,RO,RU,RS,SK,ES,SE,CH,TR,UA,GB,CR,MX,US,AR,BR,CL,CO,PY,PE,UY,VE,DZ,EG,MA,NG,SN,TN,IR,JP,QA,KR,AU

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, Kent said:

Here's a fun little thing. Here is a map of the world, with every country that was ranked ahead of Canada 7 years ago coloured blue. We were ranked 120th.

 

Here is the same map for today, ranked 51st.

 

If you are curious or want to play around, here is the website where I made the maps. This has the countries filled in from the 2nd map.

http://www.amcharts.com/visited_countries/#AT,BE,HR,CZ,DK,FR,DE,GR,HU,IE,IT,NL,NO,PL,PT,RO,RU,RS,SK,ES,SE,CH,TR,UA,GB,CR,MX,US,AR,BR,CL,CO,PY,PE,UY,VE,DZ,EG,MA,NG,SN,TN,IR,JP,QA,KR,AU

Getting ahead of Russia would certainly take a lot of blue out of that map and make for a much more powerful visual.

[Kent]

On 8/17/2021 at 8:16 PM, Kent said:

We have had as many as 8 countries ranked ahead of us with a population below 1 million people (at a time, not a total), 30 countries ahead of us with a population between 1 million and 5 million, and 23 countries with between 5 million and 10 million. Currently there is 1 ahead of us smaller than 1 million, 9 between 1 million and 5 million, and 10 between 5 million and 10 million. Over the entire 7 year period, we have had 11 different countries of fewer than 1 million ranked ahead of us at one time or another.

An update on this. With this month's rankings, there are 0 countries with a population of fewer than 1 million ahead of us in the rankings. That is the first time this has happened since I've been keeping track (7 years).

[youllneverwalkalone]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Getting ahead of Russia would certainly take a lot of blue out of that map and make for a much more powerful visual.

[GasPed]

5 hours ago, Obinna said:

Getting ahead of Russia would certainly take a lot of blue out of that map and make for a much more powerful visual.

I do like that we're ahead of Greenland, but Alaska is a problem.  Wonder if we could arrange a couple friendlies in Whitehorse. 

[Cheeta]

7 hours ago, Kent said:

An update on this. With this month's rankings, there are 0 countries with a population of fewer than 1 million ahead of us in the rankings. That is the first time this has happened since I've been keeping track (7 years).

I don't know whether to laugh or cry...

[Kent]

5 minutes ago, Cheeta said:

I don't know whether to laugh or cry...

To make you feel a bit better, Iceland has spent time in the top 20 during the time span I mentioned and have fewer than 1 million people.

[PegCityCam]

On 9/20/2021 at 2:42 PM, Obinna said:

Getting ahead of Russia would certainly take a lot of blue out of that map and make for a much more powerful visual.

Or not using a Mercator map🤷‍♂️

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mercator-map-true-size-of-countries/

[GasPed]

13 hours ago, PegCityCam said:

Or not using a Mercator map🤷‍♂️

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mercator-map-true-size-of-countries/

You mean Greenland isn't bigger than Africa?  No!  🥺

[SpursFlu]

On 9/20/2021 at 12:33 PM, Kent said:

Here's a fun little thing. Here is a map of the world, with every country that was ranked ahead of Canada 7 years ago coloured blue. We were ranked 120th.

 

Here is the same map for today, ranked 51st.

 

If you are curious or want to play around, here is the website where I made the maps. This has the countries filled in from the 2nd map.

http://www.amcharts.com/visited_countries/#AT,BE,HR,CZ,DK,FR,DE,GR,HU,IE,IT,NL,NO,PL,PT,RO,RU,RS,SK,ES,SE,CH,TR,UA,GB,CR,MX,US,AR,BR,CL,CO,PY,PE,UY,VE,DZ,EG,MA,NG,SN,TN,IR,JP,QA,KR,AU

This kinda feels like a fun game of Risk. Hopefully this one doesn't end with a drunk friend flipping over the board in frustration at 3am

[TOCanada115]

How many points did we gain with the tie? And what do the numbers look like for the Jamaica game?

[maplebanana]

29 minutes ago, TOCanada115 said:

How many points did we gain with the tie? And what do the numbers look like for the Jamaica game?

Looks like we gained 5.57 pts for draw with MEX. Win against JAM is +12 pts. Win against PAN is +11.13.

I cheated this time and used this site instead of my spreadsheet: https://football-ranking.com/calculate?view=scheduledMatch&country1=Canada

[Unnamed Trialist]

14 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Looks like we gained 5.57 pts for draw with MEX. Win against JAM is +12 pts. Win against PAN is +11.13.

I cheated this time and used this site instead of my spreadsheet: https://football-ranking.com/calculate?view=scheduledMatch&country1=Canada

I'm a complete amateur on this, but from what I see, and depending on other results in this Fifa window, Canada could push up anywhere from 1 to 6 positions, probably not higher than 45th. We'd likely be behind Costa Rica still, at 44, but again, results. 

I don't care too much about the rankings, but do agree that if you are not a top 50 team it is almosts impossible to qualify for a tournament for the best 32 in the world. I have no idea if rankings affects pots in the WC draw, or our place in Concacaf (are Concacaf teams for the WC draw in pots in function of their standing in the Octo, or FIFA ranking?)