FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[frattinator]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I don't care too much about the rankings, but do agree that if you are not a top 50 team it is almosts impossible to qualify for a tournament for the best 32 in the world. I have no idea if rankings affects pots in the WC draw, or our place in Concacaf (are Concacaf teams for the WC draw in pots in function of their standing in the Octo, or FIFA ranking?)

I think the biggest benefit to reaching top 50 as others have mentioned is that Canadian players have a better shot at getting work permits in the UK, which can only be beneficial to the program in the long run. 
 

Edit: also WC group draws are dependent on fifa rankings, though as someone else mentioned we probably have to get to the mid 30s to move up to pot 3.

Edited October 8, 2021 by frattinator

[Jedi Ram]

UNOFFICIAL FIFA WORLD RANKINGS 

After Match Day 4

Teams                 Points       Rank
Mexico                1660.62    9
United States   1650.19    11
Costa Rica         1437.02   44
Canada               1421.80    51
Jamaica             1395.29   61
El Salvador       1373.21    63
Honduras          1378.19    65
Panama              1346.45   72

Canada is only 2.7 points from attaining FIFA World Rank #50.

Canada gained 5.57 points - Mexico lost 5.57 points

Honduras gained 1.60 pts - Costa Rica lost 1.60 pts

El Salvador gained 12.33 points - Panama lost 12.33 pts

USA gained 7.11 pts - Jamaica lost 7.11 pts.

[Jedi Ram]

MATCH DAY 5 - FIFA Points Result

                                        GAME                     Current Pts                       Expected      W               D                    L

 

Match Day 5	Oct 10	Jamaica	1395.29	25	47.46%	13.14	0.64	(11.86)
		Canada	1421.80	25	52.54%	11.86	(0.64)	(13.14)
		Mexico	1660.62	25	75.08%	6.23	(6.27)	(18.77)
		Honduras	1373.21	25	24.92%	18.77	6.27	(6.23)
		Costa Rica	1437.02	25	55.62%	11.09	(1.41)	(13.91)
		El Salvador	1378.19	25	44.38%	13.91	1.41	(11.09)
		Panama	1346.45	25	23.76%	19.06	6.56	(5.94)
		United States	1650.19	25	76.24%	5.94	(6.56)	(19.06)

[Approve My Account Pls]

I'm a bit of an idiot when it comes to FIFA rankings, will they be updated before the next transfer window? Cuz by then we should be comfortably in the top 50 and that could be huge for getting some more Canucks abroad

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

I'm a bit of an idiot when it comes to FIFA rankings, will they be updated before the next transfer window? Cuz by then we should be comfortably in the top 50 and that could be huge for getting some more Canucks abroad

Yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings#Ranking_schedule

[TOCanada115]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I'm a complete amateur on this, but from what I see, and depending on other results in this Fifa window, Canada could push up anywhere from 1 to 6 positions, probably not higher than 45th. We'd likely be behind Costa Rica still, at 44, but again, results. 

I don't care too much about the rankings, but do agree that if you are not a top 50 team it is almosts impossible to qualify for a tournament for the best 32 in the world. I have no idea if rankings affects pots in the WC draw, or our place in Concacaf (are Concacaf teams for the WC draw in pots in function of their standing in the Octo, or FIFA ranking?)

It does affect the WC draw. It’s been said you need to be at least in the 32-33 range to have a shot at pot 3, instead of being in the bottom pot. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 hours ago, TOCanada115 said:

It does affect the WC draw. It’s been said you need to be at least in the 32-33 range to have a shot at pot 3, instead of being in the bottom pot. 

So it is based straight on ranking, combined with not drawing any other Concacaf team in our case?

I imagine that if we were to qualify third we would like also be 3rd ranked in Concacaf by then, but that would not be the point. The idea is to be ranked higher than other teams from other federations who'd go below us in pot 4, and that may not happen if we did not have at least 7 others below us--almost impossible.

Sorry to ask but I am interested how it works. We don't have too much experience with the system!

Edited October 8, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[TOCanada115]

25 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So it is based straight on ranking, combined with not drawing any other Concacaf team in our case?

I imagine that if we were to qualify third we would like also be 3rd ranked in Concacaf by then, but that would not be the point. The idea is to be ranked higher than other teams from other federations who'd go below us in pot 4, and that may not happen if we did not have at least 7 others below us--almost impossible.

Sorry to ask but I am interested how it works. We don't have too much experience with the system!

Yeah, you got it. If we were to somehow get into pot 3, we would most likely get a African, or Asian team in our group from pot 4 because we can not be put in a group with another team from Concacaf. 

[GasPed]

Crazy that we're here talking about how to get into Pot 3, when a month ago any Pot would do (and 6 months before that the only Pot we wanted was from Bongs R Us).

[Kent]

As far as I know, the draw procedure for 2022 hasn't been confirmed, but here is what was done in 2018, along with the pots to give people a sense of what it takes to get into Pot 3.

"For the draw, the teams were allocated to four pots based on the FIFA World Rankings of October 2017. Pot one contained the hosts Russia (who were automatically assigned to position A1) and the best seven teams. Pot two contained the next best eight teams, and so on for pots three and four.^[48] This was different from previous draws, when only pot one was based on FIFA rankings while the remaining pots were based on geographical considerations. However, teams from the same confederation still were not drawn against each other for the group stage, except that two UEFA teams could be in each group. The pots for the draw are shown below."

Edited October 8, 2021 by Kent
Made the pic and text a bit clearer.

[jtpc]

So if we qualified and they kept the same format, we would need 8 countries to be ranked lower than we were to get into Pot 3. Fingers crossed for some upsets in Asia and Africa. Pot 3 team or not, whoever gets Qatar in their group would be pretty happy to avoid a top 7 seed in the group stage.

It looks like we have 1421.80 with 2 matches left in this window. I know other countries are adding to their September totals as well, but it's interesting that in the September rankings, once you get to 49th, 45th is only 1.5 points away.

[JamboAl]

By all means have the discussion but I feel like talking about what pot we’d be in a World Cup draw seems like bad juju.

[canuckgbp]

Looks like we are up to 49th in the live rankings. On 1432.34. CONMEBOL have games today so I am assuming more movement could happen. 
 

Edit- looks like we are 48th

Edited October 15, 2021 by canuckgbp

[TOCanada115]

Another question for our ranking point number crushers. 
 

What are point values for both games as of right now against Costa Rica and Mexico?

And roughly where would 2 wins put us in the Fifa rankings?

[Lurker]

If we make it to the World Cup and we’re in Pot D there’s a high probability we create a Group of Death… we’re playing on par with Mexico and the US who would be likely in Pot B so drawing us from D would be terrifying.

[maplebanana]

19 minutes ago, TOCanada115 said:

Another question for our ranking point number crushers. 
 

What are point values for both games as of right now against Costa Rica and Mexico?

And roughly where would 2 wins put us in the Fifa rankings?

CRC: Win/Draw/Loss:  +12.67 / +0.49 / -12.33

MEX: Win/Draw/Loss: +17.89 / +5.39 / -7.11

Two wins = +30.56. If all other teams around us don't move much, then we'd jump up to 38th, one spot behind Norway.

[dyslexic nam]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

If we make it to the World Cup and we’re in Pot D there’s a high probability we create a Group of Death… we’re playing on par with Mexico and the US who would be likely in Pot B so drawing us from D would be terrifying.

Ha.  To paraphrase an earlier post, we have gone from stressing about Suriname to thinking we help create the dreaded group if death.  

I love this place.  
 

[jtpc]

There was quite a large gap between us and Costa Rica (rankings-wise) when WCQ began. After our fantastic performance against them at the Gold Cup, it seemed likely that at some point during the Octagonal, we would probably catch them given the different trajectories we seem to be on this cycle. If the gap is now 1439 to 1432 and we defeat them next month in Edmonton, depending on how the November window finishes, we might find ourselves ahead of Costa Rica sooner rather than later. 😀

Edited October 16, 2021 by jtpc

[TOCanada115]

16 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

CRC: Win/Draw/Loss:  +12.67 / +0.49 / -12.33

MEX: Win/Draw/Loss: +17.89 / +5.39 / -7.11

Two wins = +30.56. If all other teams around us don't move much, then we'd jump up to 38th, one spot behind Norway.

That’s a huge gain. Makes these games have a second meaning to them, outside of being a must win (at least for Costa Rica game). 

[maplebanana]

13 minutes ago, TOCanada115 said:

That’s a huge gain. Makes these games have a second meaning to them, outside of being a must win (at least for Costa Rica game). 

Further, if we go with the fairly reasonable scenario of Canada beating CRC and losing to Mexico, while CRC beats Honduras, we end the window with 1437.9 and CRC at 1437.35. So *just* sneak into 3rd in CONCACAF.

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 hours ago, Lurker said:

If we make it to the World Cup and we’re in Pot D there’s a high probability we create a Group of Death… we’re playing on par with Mexico and the US who would be likely in Pot B so drawing us from D would be terrifying.

I think teams from a smaller confederation like ours cannot be in the same group stage in the WC. Only happens with Euro teams. 

I'd take a group with Denmark, Colombia and Japan.

[ardsa]

1 hour ago, maplebanana said:

CRC: Win/Draw/Loss:  +12.67 / +0.49 / -12.33

MEX: Win/Draw/Loss: +17.89 / +5.39 / -7.11

Two wins = +30.56. If all other teams around us don't move much, then we'd jump up to 38th, one spot behind Norway.

As a pedantic person I have to note that MEX match numbers are not correct. FIFA points are calculated following each match and the both MEX and CAN will have a different point total than you used before the second match of the window. The numbers will be close, but if you are attempting the be precise you need to simulate on a match by match basis.

[maplebanana]

3 minutes ago, ardsa said:

As a pedantic person I have to note that MEX match numbers are not correct. FIFA points are calculated following each match and the both MEX and CAN will have a different point total than you used before the second match of the window. The numbers will be close, but if you are attempting the be precise you need to simulate on a match by match basis.

Are the rankings point basis calculated from match to match or window to window? Match to match would seem more accurate, but I always thought that was overcomplicating it for FIFA. Happy to be wrong though if you have a reference.

[ardsa]

4 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

Are the rankings point basis calculated from match to match or window to window? Match to match would seem more accurate, but I always thought that was overcomplicating it for FIFA. Happy to be wrong though if you have a reference.

From https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/f99da4f73212220/original/edbm045h0udbwkqew35a-pdf.pdf
"The Elo method of calculation adds/subtracts points (as opposed to averaging points) for individual matches to/from a team’s existing point total."
"Pbefore: Points before the match"
The document computes a sample calculation and mentions calculation a new P for each team after a match.
I can't find a definitive source, but reading the calculation document leads me to believe it is done on a match by match basis.
A few minutes with a spreadsheet could confirm, but I am in reading mode, not calculating mode right now.

[baulderdash77]

In a highly realistic scenario where we get a win against Costa Rica and a tie against Mexico; we would gain about 17 net points and put us around 44th for the year end rankings.  
 

Also if we got those 4 points for qualifying we would be in the clear drivers seat for qualification.