CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024 - Group Stage & ¼finals - General Thread

[PopePouri]

Well versed in the Scandinavian.

Edited September 13, 2023 by PopePouri

[Obinna]

Here are the standings at the midway point of this round:

 

 

As a reminder, the October Concacaf rankings will determine the QF matchups...

 

 

 

Someone following more closely than me can confirm or dispute, but it seems like CR are very close to us (we are in 3rd). They beat Saudi but then lost to UAE, though I cannot recall if CONCACAF rankings consider games outside our region or not. Can someone clear that up for me?

 

Regardless, we know it'll be one of the two group winners. I really hope for our sake it's not Jamaica, that would be such a pain. I'd rather Panama honestly even though both will be tough. We could get a bit of a gift however with T&T leading group A right now and Guatemala in the mix. The 2nd half of this round will have some interesting showdowns in group A:

Last time Panama travelled to Curacao, in the WC qualifiers, they barely escaped with a win to advance to the Ocho, so that's not a given result even with Curacao struggling right now. They were not a gimmie when we played them at home earlier in the year. 

Panama then play Guatemala at home. This is a game I feel Panama will win, but I won't count Guatemala out. Panama could get 6 points to win the group, but a win and a draw would bring them to 8 points and that could be enough, considering what T&T do.

Speaking of which, T&T are perfect after a massive road win against El Salvador and a plucky 1-0 home win versus Curacao. Like Panama they have to travel to Curacao and hope to get something on the road. They also host Guatemala, which won't be easy. 

Feels like anything can happen with this group, which is good from my perspective, as I would rather play Guatemala or T&T than Panama. Any of these 3 teams could win it and Martinique could even finish on 9 points to win the group if they beat El Salvador home and away (and if results go their way). El Salvador and Curacao are not winning the group, so they are just playing spoiler (and trying not to get relegated, of course. 

Not going to do a deep dive on Group B, someone else can go for it. Jamaica will probably come out on top, but their stumble against Haiti makes things interesting. They have to play them away as well. Should be fun.  

[CanadaFan123]

Jamaica did not play well last night and is generally terrible at home. I’d welcome them.

[mrstepp817]

1 minute ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Jamaica did not play well last night and is generally terrible at home. I’d welcome them.

Did Jamaica have all their guys or were most of their UK based guys not available?

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

21 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I assume since Costa Rica won against Saudi Arabia but lost to the UAE that the gap will remain roughly the same.

Even if we lost to Japan, could Costa Rica close the ~50 point gap with two friendly wins in October?

Better minds than mind will need to answer that question.

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

Someone following more closely than me can confirm or dispute, but it seems like CR are very close to us (we are in 3rd). They beat Saudi but then lost to UAE, though I cannot recall if CONCACAF rankings consider games outside our region or not. Can someone clear that up for me?

@Redpunkfiddle &/or @maplebanana &/or @Kent we need your help!

But the matter may be moot because the rumour is Costa Rica will play the Colombia U23 team twice in October:

 https://espndeportes.espn.com/futbol/costa-rica/nota/_/id/12577683/costa-rica-goleados-europa-gira-emiratos-arabes-unidos

Edited September 13, 2023 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Obinna]

22 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

Did Jamaica have all their guys or were most of their UK based guys not available?

Jamaica drew Haiti 2-2

I never watched so maybe I cannot tell you how they played like @CanadaFan123, but I can tell you this was their starting eleven:

F-Nicholson(Clemont/Ligue 1)

F-Decordova Reid (Fulham/EPL)

LM-Gray (Al-Ettifaq/Saudi)

CM-Palmer (Coventry/Championship)

CM-Latibeaudiere (Coventry/Championship)

RM-Bailey (Aston Villa/EPL)

LB-Bell (Luton/EPL)

CB-Pinnock (Brentford/EPL)

CB-Lowe (Union/MLS)

RB-Brown (Whitecaps/MLS)

GK-Blake (Union/MLS)

[trc2014]

58 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Jamaica did not play well last night and is generally terrible at home. I’d welcome them.

He also played awful away in Jamaica against a much worse team with no fans.  

[Obinna]

3 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

He also played awful away in Jamaica against a much worse team with no fans.  

This is what I was thinking too. Davies, David and co. couldn't do shit against that Jamaica team.

In general I think we match up poorly against Jamaica. They have very athletic players which cancels out our own athleticism. Part of what makes us so dangerous is the skill and athleticism out wide, but for the most part they deal with it. 

Where we can get at Jamaica is our interplay in the final third. On that day in Jamaica there was very little of that. In Toronto there was tons of it, but they had a weak selection and nothing to play for.

Of all the teams in this region not USA and Mexico it's Jamaica I want to avoid - but hey if they are struggling to put the pieces together, drawing Haiti at home and such - then bring them on!

[CanadaFan123]

47 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

He also played awful away in Jamaica against a much worse team with no fans.  

A 0-0 result away in a 2 leg tie? All day. 

[to70]

Watched parts of the game. That is one terrible pitch to play any kind of technical soccer. It was in even worse conditon when we played there couple of years ago.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 minute ago, to70 said:

Watched parts of the game. That is one terrible pitch to play any kind of technical soccer. It was in even worse conditon when we played there couple of years ago.

Next up, the #CanWNT ! 😅

[Kadenge]

2 hours ago, trc2014 said:

He also played awful away in Jamaica against a much worse team with no fans.  

We had played Mexico to a 1-1 tie at Azteca using a high press at altitude, something very few away teams have tried to do, before the game vs Jamaica with the heat and humidity. Our 1st XI were spent especially David and Davies. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on that game.

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, CanadaFan123 said:

A 0-0 result away in a 2 leg tie? All day. 

Scoring 0 goals in an aggregate away goals tie always scares me - even if the game ends in a draw. 

[CanadaFan123]

30 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Scoring 0 goals in an aggregate away goals tie always scares me - even if the game ends in a draw. 

Didn’t realize away goals were a thing. Point stands though and we should be beating Jamaica at home.

Edited September 13, 2023 by CanadaFan123

[Redpunkfiddle]

4 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

@Redpunkfiddle &/or @maplebanana &/or @Kent we need your help!

But the matter may be moot because the rumour is Costa Rica will play the Colombia U23 team twice in October:

 https://espndeportes.espn.com/futbol/costa-rica/nota/_/id/12577683/costa-rica-goleados-europa-gira-emiratos-arabes-unidos

Looks like Costa Rica is farther off from us in the Concacaf rankings (52) compared to FIFA (5) as of August 31.

As for them catching us I think Kent has documented how opaque it all is without the formula.  The only source seems to be the news release from when the system was announced.

Points are based on the importance of matches with friendlies given a value of 17.5. I'd expect that the system is structured so teams would get half the points if they beat a team at the same level, and up to 17.5 if they overcame a vastly superior team- that's the FIFA ranking structure. Ish?

So not really time for Costa Rica to catch up even with the friendly win in Sept.

And- the page does say that opponents from outside the confederation will be 'assigned' a value.

[Neil R.]

I'm glad Costa Rica is our reference point for quarter-final seeding and not Panama. By the end of October, Panama could be 3rd in the CONCACAF rankings. They were only 19 points behind us for 3rd at the start of the month and have defeated Martinique. They will lose some of those Martinique points having also drawn a lower-ranked opponent (Guatemala), but it's probably still a net gain.

Thanks to the uneven scheduling, imagine if Trinidad and Tobago won Group A and Cuba won Group B. The US and Mexico would potentially have the higher-ranked opponents (say Panama and Jamaica) for the quarter-finals and Copa America qualification instead of us and Costa Rica. In the final 2 matches next month, Cuba and Honduras play each other twice while Jamaica travels to Grenada and Haiti. If Cuba or Honduras won both of those and Jamaica drew in Haiti, Jamaica wouldn't win the group.

[nolando]

Cuba and Haiti are the great zombies of CONCACAF. Political unrest, economic strife, natural disasters (catastrophes, even) and just when you think a country wouldn't be able to recover, they keep climbing back. I'd hate to face either of them anytime soon.

[Kent]

6 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

@Redpunkfiddle &/or @maplebanana &/or @Kent we need your help!

But the matter may be moot because the rumour is Costa Rica will play the Colombia U23 team twice in October:

 https://espndeportes.espn.com/futbol/costa-rica/nota/_/id/12577683/costa-rica-goleados-europa-gira-emiratos-arabes-unidos

As Redpunkfiddle mentioned, teams outside CONCACAF are assigned ranking points, so I don't think anybody can know for sure. But using Maplebanana's formula, and plugging in FIFA ranking points for Costa Rica and their opponents, works out to something like this.

Win vs Saudi Arabia -> 16.6 points
Loss vs UAE -> -20.6 points

So that would be a net of 4 points dropped. This could be wildly off though if CONCACAF wants it to be wildly off.

[Shway]

I think anyone saying "bring on Jamaica" is naive. Like Obinna said, we don't match up well with them because most of our skillset is what they have (strong offence - weak defence)....and on their pitch anything can happen.

Remember we haven't played the new Jamaica at all. That home WCQ win was full of Jamaican premier league players, and the only players in that lineup today was Blake, and 2nd choice fullback Javain Brown. 

I want to avoid Jamaica at all costs. 

[maplebanana]

50 minutes ago, Kent said:

As Redpunkfiddle mentioned, teams outside CONCACAF are assigned ranking points, so I don't think anybody can know for sure. But using Maplebanana's formula, and plugging in FIFA ranking points for Costa Rica and their opponents, works out to something like this.

Win vs Saudi Arabia -> 16.6 points
Loss vs UAE -> -20.6 points

So that would be a net of 4 points dropped. This could be wildly off though if CONCACAF wants it to be wildly off.

Had to dust off the ol' calculator, detailed here: 

Assuming Japan is higher than us, a loss would make us lose 13 pts (less pts the higher JP is than us). Based on July 31 ranking, we are 52 pts ahead of CRC. So I don't see how they can catch us for 3rd unless CRC schedules and wins twice against decent teams. As far as I can tell, CRC doesn't have anything planned for Oct window.

Note: PAN can and probably will overtake us for 3rd in CONCACAF index, but luckily that doesn't matter since the top 4 are already seeded for QF.

 

[narduch]

Concacaf announces schedule for the October Nations League window.

We will find out our November opponent for Copa America qualifying after this window 

 

 

[blueseeka]

October 17th looks like the last date

[narduch]

Unsurprising. 

 

[Watchmen]

6 hours ago, narduch said:

Unsurprising. 

 

To be fair, they had to pick the city they absolutely knew would not be hosting any other soccer games in November.

[dyslexic nam]

Just now, Watchmen said:

To be fair, they had to pick the city they absolutely knew would not be hosting any other soccer games in November.

That’s just mean.