CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024 - Group Stage & ¼finals - General Thread

[Kent]

On 4/6/2023 at 6:51 PM, Obinna said:

I guess ditto for Costa Rica hosting (which I cannot find any record for, weirdly)

Good post. Much more reasonable than what we see in the real world. As for Costa Rica, they hosted a double header in 2019. Wikipedia has the attendance listed as 19,140 for Haiti vs Bermuda and Costa Rica vs Nicaragua. In that same tournament Jamaica had 17,874 for Curacao vs El Salvador and Jamaica vs Honduras.

Non-American hosts have a record of 10 wins and 3 draws and 0 losses.

And while I was looking up that stat I noticed a double header of USA vs Martinique and Canada vs Cuba in 2003 that drew just 8,780 fans in Foxboro. It was manageable back then to have weak crowds, it shouldn't be the end of the world now. I also just was thinking about how expenses in a Central American Gold Cup would likely be lower than one in USA, but I guess also the price per ticket would be lower outside of the USA as well.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Kent
Haha, Nigeria wasn't in the 2019 Gold Cup, I meant Nicaragua.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

The draw for this is tonight.

It isn't clear if they will draw the quarter final teams against any specific group winner. I'm not sure if it will be relevant to us.

[Kent]

8 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The draw for this is tonight.

It isn't clear if they will draw the quarter final teams against any specific group winner. I'm not sure if it will be relevant to us.

Any idea if it's going to be shown somewhere? I don't see it on OneSoccer's schedule or listed on their youtube channel. I don't see it on CONCACAF's youtube channel either.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

14 minutes ago, Kent said:

Any idea if it's going to be shown somewhere? I don't see it on OneSoccer's schedule or listed on their youtube channel. I don't see it on CONCACAF's youtube channel either.

The official CONCACAF release says OneSoccer would be broadcasting:

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/concacaf-confirms-details-for-2023-24-concacaf-nations-league-official-draw/

[ADP10]

Find it a bit silly that they made groups of 6 but not all teams can play each other

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

42 minutes ago, ADP10 said:

Find it a bit silly that they made groups of 6 but not all teams can play each other

That's the thing about the Swiss, it is a format that has holes, just like their cheese.

[Kent]

Doesn't look like the draw is on OneSoccer. They've just started OneSoccer Today.

Found it on CONCACAF's Youtube channel. Hopefully if you click the link below it will take you to the right place.

 

 

[Kent]

I miss the current/old format already. Much easier to understand and explain to people.

[Kent]

I feel like after the last draw it took too long for CONCACAF to release a graphic of the results, so I took a screenshot from the draw.

In League A, Group A looks tougher than B.

In League B I would say Group B looks the toughest to win, Group C might be the most up in the air in terms of who gets relegated.

In League C... I don't really know. With nobody getting relegated down, and the top teams getting promoted out, League C is left more weak than usual this year.

[maplebanana]

20 minutes ago, Kent said:

I feel like after the last draw it took too long for CONCACAF to release a graphic of the results, so I took a screenshot from the draw.

In League A, Group A looks tougher than B.

In League B I would say Group B looks the toughest to win, Group C might be the most up in the air in terms of who gets relegated.

In League C... I don't really know. With nobody getting relegated down, and the top teams getting promoted out, League C is left more weak than usual this year.

I think I disagree about League A groups. HAI/JAM/HON >> PAN/GUA/SLV in my opinion, even though recent results have both JAM and HON on a downward trend. And Suriname is always tricky (but so is Curacao). I will admit that MTQ and NCA are slightly more difficult opponents than CUB and GRN though.

In the end, I think it will be us vs one of PAN/SLV/JAM/HON. And I think we would be favored to beat any of them in a home-at-home. I suppose they didn't announce how the QF matchups will be determined?

[Alex]

Wikipedia says the 4 teams who advance will be ranked 1-4 based on group results. The top four of  Mexico, US, Costa Rica, Canada will be ranked based on October 2023 concacaf rankings and matched up from there. 

[Kent]

1 hour ago, maplebanana said:

I think I disagree about League A groups. HAI/JAM/HON >> PAN/GUA/SLV in my opinion, even though recent results have both JAM and HON on a downward trend. And Suriname is always tricky (but so is Curacao). I will admit that MTQ and NCA are slightly more difficult opponents than CUB and GRN though.

In the end, I think it will be us vs one of PAN/SLV/JAM/HON. And I think we would be favored to beat any of them in a home-at-home. I suppose they didn't announce how the QF matchups will be determined?

You might be right about League A. I just reread my comment before reading yours and was questioning it myself. I kind of rushed that comment out before springing to action for my kid's bedtime. I need to think this through more. I think I would rate the teams like this.

Panama > Haiti
Guatemala < Jamaica
El Salvador < Honduras
Martinique > Cuba
Curacao > Suriname
Nicaragua > Grenada

Panama I would say are big favourites to win Group A, Group B is more up in the air for who finishes first. As for who finishes 2nd in each group, probably everyone except Nicaragua has a shot in Group A. Everyone except Cuba and Grenada have a shot in Group B. And I think the best team to get relegated will come from Group A. The best 3rd place team (so just missing out on the quarter finals) will come from Group B.

So it probably depends on what you are focusing on. Difficulty of finishing first, top 2, staying out of relegation zone, etc. I think in the end Group A has overall the better teams though, but it's closer than I originally thought.

[footballfreak]

50 minutes ago, Alex said:

Wikipedia says the 4 teams who advance will be ranked 1-4 based on group results. The top four of  Mexico, US, Costa Rica, Canada will be ranked based on October 2023 concacaf rankings and matched up from there. 

Provided we have a fair to good summer, we probably take the 3 seed from Costa Rica and play the 2nd best group winner.

I tend to think Panama takes more points from Group A than whoever wins B - leaving us with Haiti, Jamaica, or Honduras. Honduras can finish top 2, but winning the group seems out of their reach at the moment. Haiti is imploding. As incompetent as the JFF is, my money is on them.

Prediction: Canada v Jamaica QF

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

26 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Provided we have a fair to good summer, we probably take the 3 seed from Costa Rica and play the 2nd best group winner.

I tend to think Panama takes more points from Group A than whoever wins B - leaving us with Haiti, Jamaica, or Honduras. Honduras can finish top 2, but winning the group seems out of their reach at the moment. Haiti is imploding. As incompetent as the JFF is, my money is on them.

Prediction: Canada v Jamaica QF

That is a very reasonable analysis.

Just to be a contrarian I will guess that we face Honduras because we always face Honduras. They win the group.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Obinna]

Interesting draw. My initial reaction was that Group B of League A was tougher, the group with Honduras, Jamaica, Haiti and Suriname, but that's probably because I wasn't focused on top-to-bottom. The bottom two teams, Cuba and Granada, are not as strong as Martinique and Nicaruagua. At least I don't think they are.

I think it also depends on what version of Guatemala we are talking about. Is this the Guatamala of old times? The team regarded in the same group as El Salvador, Honduras and Panama? Or is this the Guatemala that's been in the wilderness in recent years? We'll find out what they are all about soon enough in Gold Cup, but until then I am assuming they won't threaten to advance from this group. I see Panama potentially running away from the rest, with Curacao and El Salvador battling for second.

Over on the other side, any of Jamacia, Honduras, Haiti or Suriname could advance. There's real potentinal in my view for that group to come down to the final match day with all four in contention.

Who plays who in this Swiss style format could really impact how things play out for both groups...

[Kent]

15 minutes ago, Obinna said:

I think it also depends on what version of Guatemala we are talking about. Is this the Guatamala of old times? The team regarded in the same group as El Salvador, Honduras and Panama? Or is this the Guatemala that's been in the wilderness in recent years? We'll find out what they are all about soon enough in Gold Cup, but until then I am assuming they won't threaten to advance from this group.

Guatemala is an interesting case. I am assuming they are pretty good, but I don't know that for sure. Their club teams have done pretty decently recently (in the new CONCACAF league rankings, Guatemala is ahead of leagues like El Salvador, Panama, and CPL). We have to remember that the reason they were in the wilderness recently is mostly due to their ban from FIFA.

They missed a couple Gold Cups (2017 and 2019) and Nations League qualifying as a result of that ban. In the 2021 Gold Cup they lost to Mexico and El Salvador, and drew with T&T. In 2022 World Cup Qualifying they got a really bad break. They had 3 wins, 1 draw, 14 goals for and didn't concede a single goal, but got eliminated on a goals scored tie breaker. Their 1 draw was against Curacao in Curacao... just like Panama did in the next round.

Since they missed Nations League qualifying they had to go to League C in the first iteration, then League B in the current iteration, and of course they promoted both times. So this will be their first shot at League A, and it came as fast as physically possible. It will be interesting to see how they do. I'd like to see CONCACAF get better all around (but of course us improving at a faster rate!) so if Guatemala can step into the same tier as the more successful Central American teams, that would be pretty interesting/exciting.

[Obinna]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

Guatemala is an interesting case. I am assuming they are pretty good, but I don't know that for sure. Their club teams have done pretty decently recently (in the new CONCACAF league rankings, Guatemala is ahead of leagues like El Salvador, Panama, and CPL). We have to remember that the reason they were in the wilderness recently is mostly due to their ban from FIFA.

They missed a couple Gold Cups (2017 and 2019) and Nations League qualifying as a result of that ban. In the 2021 Gold Cup they lost to Mexico and El Salvador, and drew with T&T. In 2022 World Cup Qualifying they got a really bad break. They had 3 wins, 1 draw, 14 goals for and didn't concede a single goal, but got eliminated on a goals scored tie breaker. Their 1 draw was against Curacao in Curacao... just like Panama did in the next round.

Since they missed Nations League qualifying they had to go to League C in the first iteration, then League B in the current iteration, and of course they promoted both times. So this will be their first shot at League A, and it came as fast as physically possible. It will be interesting to see how they do. I'd like to see CONCACAF get better all around (but of course us improving at a faster rate!) so if Guatemala can step into the same tier as the more successful Central American teams, that would be pretty interesting/exciting.

That's certainly a good case for Guatemala challenging El Salvador, Curacao and Panama. I for one would love to see it. You know, their story seems to resemble our own. The way we were irrelevant, then had to earn our stripes against teams we should beat handily (think build up to inaugural Nations League). The USA win was like our coming out party and in many ways Guatemala may fancy us to be their opportunity to step up in the same way (Gold Cup). We'll have to probably put out a stronger line up, that could be our real test of the round, which is otherwise straight forward. 

IF not then, certainly in this exciting group A of League A. They really could make some noice.

Of course you never know, but for me El Salvador and Panama have been getting better and will want to assert themselves into the Copa America picture. That means advancing at all costs. Curacao meanwhile has been waiting for an opportunity like this, too. They've been knocking on the door for top 8 in the region for a while now. They got robbed of the chance to play in the 2021 Gold Cup due to covid. They would definitely love to prove themselves, I bet. They always seem to be getting stronger with Dutch players. If Guatemala can finish even 3rd they'll be able to hold their heads high. 

[xcalibre]

Nations League looks like it might surpass Gold Cup as the 'A' tournament anyway, quick shortcut to a final knock-out with USA and Mexico without the extra group games to tire out your stars.

It would be nice if that meant either tournament would spread around but it's inertia, they have contacts with local promoters, organizers, stadium personnel etc already hard-baked into CONCACAF HQ down in Miami every 2 years. Something this innovate would be too much work compared to the important duties sitting around revamping a ranking system no one asked for and interfering in local FA elections

[Alex]

Has anyone found what the matchups are in this “Swiss style” system?

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

Has anyone found what the matchups are in this “Swiss style” system?

I expected those to be announced during the draw but it doesn't seem that they were.

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/draw-delivers-groups-for-2023-24-concacaf-nations-league-presented-by-qatar-airways/

🤷‍♂️

All this is a little pointless until you actually get the matchups.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Alex]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I expected those to be announced during the draw but it doesn't seem that they were.

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/draw-delivers-groups-for-2023-24-concacaf-nations-league-presented-by-qatar-airways/

🤷‍♂️

All this is a little pointless until you actually get the matchups.

Yeah it’s weird they didn’t announce the actual matches 

[Treppy2]

3 hours ago, Alex said:

Yeah it’s weird they didn’t announce the actual matches 

I think how it works in the Swiss style system is that — after the first round — teams that have similar records are scheduled to play each other. So except for the first round, I don't think any of the matches are known yet.

The six teams in each group are seeded, so in the first round I bet A1 plays A6, A2 plays A5, A3 plays A4 (with the same format for Group B). Then if, say, A1 wins 3-0, A2 wins 2-0, A3 wins 1-0, the second-round matches would be A1-A2, A3-A4, A5-A6 because those pairs of teams would have the most similar records, going on points and then goal difference.

Teams would be re-ranked after the second round, and in the third round they would be scheduled to play the team ranked closest to them in points that they haven't already played. Ditto for after the third round. At least that's how I think it will work.

This system doesn't leave a lot of time to prepare for a specific opponent in the second and fourth round (the second match days in the September and October windows), as teams won't find out who they're playing until a few days beforehand.

I have no idea how they'll figure out which teams play at home in each round.

[footballfreak]

40 minutes ago, Treppy2 said:

I think how it works in the Swiss style system is that — after the first round — teams that have similar records are scheduled to play each other. So except for the first round, I don't think any of the matches are known yet.

The six teams in each group are seeded, so in the first round I bet A1 plays A6, A2 plays A5, A3 plays A4 (with the same format for Group B). Then if, say, A1 wins 3-0, A2 wins 2-0, A3 wins 1-0, the second-round matches would be A1-A2, A3-A4, A5-A6 because those pairs of teams would have the most similar records, going on points and then goal difference.

Teams would be re-ranked after the second round, and in the third round they would be scheduled to play the team ranked closest to them in points that they haven't already played. Ditto for after the third round. At least that's how I think it will work.

This system doesn't leave a lot of time to prepare for a specific opponent in the second and fourth round (the second match days in the September and October windows), as teams won't find out who they're playing until a few days beforehand.

I have no idea how they'll figure out which teams play at home in each round.

That’s not how Swiss is usually run afaik. In the first round, you divide the top and bottom half (1-3, 4-6) and then match them up as follows:

1v4, 2v5, 3v6

It’s counterintuitive, but it works out in the long run of a true Swiss.
 

I don’t think CONCACAF can do that though, because they can’t reseed after every round. I expect they will arrange all 4 rounds, or at least the second game of each window, under the assumption that the higher seed wins.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by footballfreak

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 5/17/2023 at 7:13 AM, Alex said:

Has anyone found what the matchups are in this “Swiss style” system?

On 5/17/2023 at 2:50 PM, Treppy2 said:

I have no idea how they'll figure out which teams play at home in each round.

 

On 5/17/2023 at 3:30 PM, footballfreak said:

That’s not how Swiss is usually run afaik. In the first round, you divide the top and bottom half (1-3, 4-6) and then match them up as follows:

1v4, 2v5, 3v6

It’s counterintuitive, but it works out in the long run of a true Swiss.

Although I can find no information from CONCACAF or anything official to corroborate the tweet below, it seems like the opponents and fixtures are set for September and October and the schedule has been communicated to the Associations.

Cuba and Honduras will play each other twice?!?

 

 

[footballfreak]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

 

Although I can find no information from CONCACAF or anything official to corroborate the tweet below, it seems like the opponents and fixtures are set for September and October and the schedule has been communicated to the Associations.

Cuba and Honduras will play each other twice?!?

 

 

Lol. Of course they messed this up.