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WCQ: Mexico vs Canada - Thursday, Oct 7, 9:40pm Eastern / 6:40pm Pacific - Mexico City


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I like Herdman - he seems like a great man manager who gets guys to buy in to the team, and he’s gotten his tactics and squad rotation mostly right so far...

but if he plays the A team to start, he undoes a lot of my trust in him. There are two games that scream points in this round, and this one isn’t it. No matter how good a squad we put out, our chances of getting points are still capped much lower than the other two games. If we take 17% odds at a win at face value, how much lower can playing our B squad really make those odds? Now do the same exercise with the other two games.

This game is a trap. Use it an experience game to get the team used to playing away in CONCACAF. See who amongst the B squad sinks or floats. If we’re still in it, bring on the big guns at half. The reverse is just asking for a 1-0 loss where Phonzie, etc play 90.

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2 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

I like Herdman - he seems like a great man manager who gets guys to buy in to the team, and he’s gotten his tactics and squad rotation mostly right so far...

but if he plays the A team to start, he undoes a lot of my trust in him. There are two games that scream points in this round, and this one isn’t it. No matter how good a squad we put out, our chances of getting points are still capped much lower than the other two games. If we take 17% odds at a win at face value, how much lower can playing our B squad really make those odds? Now do the same exercise with the other two games.

This game is a trap. Use it an experience game to get the team used to playing away in CONCACAF. See who amongst the B squad sinks or floats. If we’re still in it, bring on the big guns at half. The reverse is just asking for a 1-0 loss where Phonzie, etc play 90.

But will you lose trust if we win?

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I'm very confident about this team, but I need to share a few words of caution before this WCQ window starts.

Most people are looking at the Mexico game today as a potential draw at best, but I do not think Panama will be an easy win for us either. Panama actually scored first in a 1-1 draw with Mexico in September, beat Jamaica 3-0 and tied Costa Rica. They will be a test and should not be taken lightly. We will need our best available 11 out there. 

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1 minute ago, Weng said:

I worry more about the Jamaica game being a trap game.  I have a feeling they may use all the negative stuff that has happened to the team to band together, and feel they are going to put up a real fight.

Yes, if they lose to the US in the States before we even take the field tonight, they will be in a very desperate position when they play us at home. On the other hand, we might be able to use their anxiety to our advantage.

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I am sure Herdman has the lads ready knowing Azteca can be an intimidating place for visiting teams even under the best of circumstances. In the worst of times it can be quite something. The Mexican fans in the terraces have been known in the past to throw bags of urine and diapers with little something extra if you know what I mean at opposing players whenever they get near. For any Canadian supporter who has made the trek to Mexico for the match, stay safe and enjoy your time in the cage. 

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1 minute ago, Weng said:

I worry more about the Jamaica game being a trap game.  I have a feeling they may use all the negative stuff that has happened to the team to band together, and feel they are going to put up a real fight.

The Canada game will likely be Jamaica's last stand in WCQ...they are going to throw everything at Canada in Kingston...a loss at home probably sinks ends any realistic hope of qualifying unless they pull the upset tonight in Austin....but a loss tonight and a loss or tie to Canada means at best they are sitting on 2 points in 5 games...as someone said earlier, the Canada game will be their Alamo

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4 hours ago, Shway said:

Davies-David-Buchanan 
Kaye-Eustaqiuo-Osorio
Laryea-Miller-Vitoria-Johnston
Crepeau

I think it's this but with Adekugbe for Laryea.   

Mexico is going to have all the possession and this gives us all the counter-attacking speed and distribution we can muster.   Shaffelburg, Millar and Laryea can provide fresh legs in the 2nd half.

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9 minutes ago, DeRo_Is_King said:

I'm very confident about this team, but I need to share a few words of caution before this WCQ window starts.

Most people are looking at the Mexico game today as a potential draw at best, but I do not think Panama will be an easy win for us either. Panama actually scored first in a 1-1 draw with Mexico in September, beat Jamaica 3-0 and tied Costa Rica. They will be a test and should not be taken lightly. We will need our best available 11 out there. 

Agreed. Having them 3rd in the window will help us I think though. Their depth will be tested similar to how ES was in that third game at BMO where they seemed to run out of gas. The core of their team is older I believe as well so who knows how they will hold up. 

As always yellows with be a major wildcard in all this. 

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5 minutes ago, Obinna said:

But will you lose trust if we win?

The only scenarios in which going for it against Mexico will have been justified will be 7 or 9 points in the window with the tie coming against Mexico. With all the struggles Jamaica are having, that is where the bar is. Those other two games are must win.

6 points where we beat Mexico and lose to one of Jamaica or Panama is still not a worthwhile tradeoff, because we’re giving away points to the teams below us. Beating Mexico is worth 3 points. Beating Panama is worth 6.

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12 minutes ago, Weng said:

I worry more about the Jamaica game being a trap game.  I have a feeling they may use all the negative stuff that has happened to the team to band together, and feel they are going to put up a real fight.

All the more reason to save our legs for that game. Don’t give them a chance to get their legs under them. Do what we did to El Salvador. Shock and awe.

Edited by footballfreak
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1 minute ago, footballfreak said:

The only scenarios in which going for it against Mexico will have been justified will be 7 or 9 points in the window with the tie coming against Mexico. With all the struggles Jamaica are having, that is where the bar is. Those other two games are must win.

6 points where we beat Mexico and lose to one of Jamaica or Panama is still not a worthwhile tradeoff, because we’re giving away points to the teams below us. Beating Mexico is worth 3 points. Beating Panama is worth 6.

That's a fair way to look at it. Good point.

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12 minutes ago, canuckgbp said:

Agreed. Having them 3rd in the window will help us I think though. Their depth will be tested similar to how ES was in that third game at BMO where they seemed to run out of gas. The core of their team is older I believe as well so who knows how they will hold up. 

As always yellows with be a major wildcard in all this. 

Agree, Panama's depth may bite them in Toronto...3rd game in a week...one of the longest flights within the region from Panama to Toronto...you've got to think they are gonna throw their best lineups out today at El Salvador and at home vs the US...so that 2nd half in Toronto things could open up especially considering Canada will have several key guys who are probably fresher since some aren't playing today

Edited by mrstepp817
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There are no easy games, period. We cannot look past Panama, but I doubt we will. The game at home versus Honduras was a reminder that we must put a foot on their necks from the opening whistle, that no matter how good we look on paper, no game is a gimme. We need to be smart in every match, and we need to fight hard and keep fighting. Resilience is massive in any endeavor, and I feel our guys have it.

 

Edited by The Beaver 2.0
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36 minutes ago, RS said:

My memory of it was as I wrote it.

There used to be a Vs history written somewhere that had the answer, I think it was Portugal 5 USA 0 but any howser

Blast from the past

I was this close (6 months) to finding the actual quote at Net54, I wanted to get a screenshot for posterity but it was not archived (to my knowledge)

Found one of my earliest recorded posts but I remember going to UofA long before this.  Man, I've been trolling a long time :)  I see Ted and Nolberto are still around and Robert of course.

Remember the IPSS tournament where Millwall "discovered Josh Simpson and Adrian Serioux, maybe we should do something like that more often

gKLgVOA.jpg

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For me the objective today is 1 pt. Then the question has to be for Herdman is.. in order to maximize our ability to earn 1 pt do i need our "best" players on the field? The answer to that might be no. Considering there will be some natural squad rotation due to players missing the opening game, im not sure how he manages it. Maybe he actually feels he doesn't need his best 11 to start to beat Jamaica? He can start David against Mexico, bring him off the bench against Jamaica, start him against Panama. I think he really needs Davies to start against Mexico but unfortunately the atmosphere and style will likely run him in to the ground. He has big decisions to make

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