The Road to Qatar.

[Redpunkfiddle]

I don't think I've seen the absolute official top 3 qualification clinching scenario for the next matchday?

De facto, it is 1 point to reach a total that although can be matched through another team winning out,  in practice would be almost impossible to overcome due to goal difference.

But to put an official stamp on it, it looks like 2 points is needed. So, a win in Costa Rica would do it.

Or, a draw (puts Costa Rica out of reach), and Panama drops points at home versus Honduras.

If we lose, even if Panama drop points, Costa Rica is still in striking distance to match our total.

Trying to see if this is correct.

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

41 minutes ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

If we lose, even if Panama drop points, Costa Rica is still in striking distance to match our total.

Trying to see if this is correct.

At first glance, I think so.

 

59 minutes ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

De facto, it is 1 point to reach a total that although can be matched through another team winning out,  in practice would be almost impossible to overcome due to goal difference.

I think this is where the Mexico vs USA match comes into play.

If on Marchday 12, we draw Costa Rica we will be on 26 points. They will be on 17 points and can no longer catch us. If Panama beat Honduras, they will be on 20 points. If Mexico beat the USA, the USA will remain on 21 points. If that match is a draw the USA will be on 22 points.

Since Panama and the USA both play each other on Matchday 13, both teams cannot get 6 more points in the last two matchdays. Therefore Mexico could sneak ahead of us and only one of the USA/Panama. Therefore we would be guaranteed 3rd and Qatar with only a point in San José.

Goal difference doesn't have to play into it if the USA don't win at the Azteca.

[Redpunkfiddle]

18 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

At first glance, I think so.

 

I think this is where the Mexico vs USA match comes into play.

If on Marchday 12, we draw Costa Rica we will be on 26 points. They will be on 17 points and can no longer catch us. If Panama beat Honduras, they will be on 20 points. If Mexico beat the USA, the USA will remain on 21 points. If that match is a draw the USA will be on 22 points.

Since Panama and the USA both play each other on Matchday 13, both teams cannot get 6 more points in the last two matchdays. Therefore Mexico could sneak ahead of us and only one of the USA/Panama. Therefore we would be guaranteed 3rd and Qatar with only a point in San José.

Goal difference doesn't have to play into it if the USA don't win at the Azteca.

So then:

Win at Costa Rica OR

Draw at Costa Rica AND either Panama OR USA fail to win.

(If we lose at Costa Rica, there are still (minute) chances we could wind up below two teams and tied with one, so can't make an official clinch that matchday with that.)

EDIT to correct: We can clinch if

Loss at Costa Rica AND the USA loses AND Panama fails to win.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Redpunkfiddle

[Allez les Rouges]

17 hours ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

So then:

Win at Costa Rica OR

Draw at Costa Rica AND either Panama OR USA fail to win.

If we lose at Costa Rica, there are still (minute) chances we could wind up below two teams and tied with one, so can't make an official clinch that matchday with that.

Last part is not quite right. If Canada loses at CRC, but PAN fails to win vs. HON *and* MEX wins vs. USA, CAN clinches. In that scenario, PAN cannot pass/tie Canada, and only one of CRC and USA can pass/tie Canada.

[Unnamed Trialist]

So since I am lousy at this stuff: would someone give us a less optimistic scenario where we go into the last match vs. Panama three points up, and their beating us by a certain margin would push us into 4th? Meaning a loss that would create the goal difference spread.

Does that scenario exist?

[Redpunkfiddle]

14 minutes ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Last part is not quite right. If Canada loses at CRC, but PAN fails to win vs. HON *and* MEX wins vs. USA, CAN clinches. In that scenario, PAN cannot pass/tie Canada, and only one of CRC and USA can pass/tie Canada.

Great spot.

[narduch]

21 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So since I am lousy at this stuff: would someone give us a less optimistic scenario where we go into the last match vs. Panama three points up, and their beating us by a certain margin would push us into 4th? Meaning a loss that would create the goal difference spread.

Does that scenario exist?

For that to happen:

Panama would need to win both their games (they have Honduras and USA)

Canada would need to get a tie and a loss in its matches v Costa Rica and Jamaica. 

+Panama would need to make up a 13 goal differential

[TGAA_Star]

26 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So since I am lousy at this stuff: would someone give us a less optimistic scenario where we go into the last match vs. Panama three points up, and their beating us by a certain margin would push us into 4th? Meaning a loss that would create the goal difference spread.

Does that scenario exist?

Why you want so badly for us to finish 4th like ye have little faith

[narduch]

The real hilarious scenario for me is the USA needing us to beat Panama in order to avoid the playoff.

That one is definitely possible

[TGAA_Star]

3 minutes ago, narduch said:

The real hilarious scenario for me is the USA needing us to beat Panama in order to avoid the playoff.

That one is definitely possible

I can definitely see this being more realistic 

[Lurker]

Completely useless post but I just noticed that TSN has updated their Qatar commercial to include Canada.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Lurker

[Vasi]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Completely useless post but I just noticed that TSN has updated their Qatar commercial to include Canada.

Anyone has a link to this commercial?

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

The real hilarious scenario for me is the USA needing us to beat Panama in order to avoid the playoff.

That one is definitely possible

We put Laryea in goal, lose by 12, go to Qatar, and Twellman does a late one-time switch to play for our national veteran team.

[Lurker]

20 minutes ago, Vasi said:

Anyone has a link to this commercial?

No luck finding a link but for additional context it’s the one that uses Drake’s Energy… it’s been running for months with no mention of our country, now it’s been updated, shows Phonzie standing during the anthem and Borjan going nuts.

[Vasi]

28 minutes ago, Lurker said:

No luck finding a link but for additional context it’s the one that uses Drake’s Energy… it’s been running for months with no mention of our country, now it’s been updated, shows Phonzie standing during the anthem and Borjan going nuts.

Don't recall seeing the commercial. Keep my eye out for it. Thanks 

[Gian-Luca]

3 hours ago, narduch said:

For that to happen:

Panama would need to win both their games (they have Honduras and USA)

Canada would need to get a tie and a loss in its matches v Costa Rica and Jamaica. 

+Panama would need to make up a 13 goal differential

Although if the US loses to Panama at home, there would be a good chance that Panama victory over us in the final game would push the US into 4th, possibly 5th, since their other games are away to Mexico and away to Costa Rica

[maplebanana]

8 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So since I am lousy at this stuff: would someone give us a less optimistic scenario where we go into the last match vs. Panama three points up, and their beating us by a certain margin would push us into 4th? Meaning a loss that would create the goal difference spread.

Does that scenario exist?

There's actually a scenario where we end up 4th, regardless of GD.

1) We lose out. - CAN = 25

2) USA beats MEX and CRC but loses to PAN. USA = 27

3) PAN wins out. PAN = 26

4) MEX loses to USA but beats ESV and HON. MEX = 27

We cannot finish worse than 4th though.

[TGAA_Star]

Canada we have 3 games left and I doubt we lose all 3 games especially when we are facing Costa Rica away, Jamaica at home and Panama away. 

Realistically against Costa Rica, that game could go either way win, loss or draw. Against the Costa Ricans, I have us earning a point and drawing that game. Giving us 26 points which should be enough to qualify for Qatar.

Against Jamaica at home, we win this game. It gives us 29 points heading into the final match day.

Then final match day against Panama, we draw this game too. Giving us 30 points as we head to Qatar in November and we qualify undefeated in the table. Not losing a single game but drawing games along the way.

[Unnamed Trialist]

4 hours ago, maplebanana said:

There's actually a scenario where we end up 4th, regardless of GD.

1) We lose out. - CAN = 25

2) USA beats MEX and CRC but loses to PAN. USA = 27

3) PAN wins out. PAN = 26

4) MEX loses to USA but beats ESV and HON. MEX = 27

We cannot finish worse than 4th though.

Thanks: so we could go into the last game vs. Panama with 25, they on 23. 

The US and Mexico both with 24. And if they all win we end up in 4th. 

In fact there are last day scenarios that would put any of the four leading teams in 4th spot. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[TGAA_Star]

Why is everyone so worried that we could lose out in the Final window or why everyone wants us to lose. I mean am I the only one who is even remotely optimistic about our chances against Costa Rica, Jamaica and Panama?

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

...because it ain't over 'til the plus-size lady sings. Should happen no problem on recent form but complacency sets in when you assume it will.

[MtlMario]

Do I have to take out my crystal ball early?

[Gian-Luca]

I am not sure how worried anyone actually is, just discussing what is possible. Regardless of our own team’s form, the scenario where the Americans win away to Mexico and Costa Rica but lose at home to Panama, while possible, strikes me as highly unlikely 

[scullion44]

So if Mexico beats USA are we 100% as long as Costa Rica doesn't catch up to our GD? 

[Unnamed Trialist]

If folks listen to the Concacaf Council, the CR rep is very confident that they will get a major home advantage playing in a full stadium. He also says Costa Rica is the toughest place to play in Central America, which we know is not true (it is just that CR has been the best team there for 15 years and their results show). 

So they are confident to be able to get home wins. 

He also mentions that they are finally starting to count on some younger talents.

We have to keep in mind that, arguably, we beat them in Edmonton in large part due to a keeping error, where Keylor Navas has been immense for them otherwise. You could even argue his absence for those few matches is the difference between them being in 5th or higher. 

I am saying this as it makes that first match an interesting challenge. I don't think we'll be intimidated, though it may be hard to be motivated when we are so close already, are really not under that much pressure, and we have the fail-safe of the Jamaica match to get us to Qatar.