CPL new teams speculation

[Aird25]

3 minutes ago, Kingston said:

That is an upside to a league that only needs ~6000 seat venues which can be constructed modularly.

Even less. For some reason Pacific have capped capacity at 5000 for the time being, when they probably could have sold 6000k+ for the opener

[SpursFlu]

23 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

Even less. For some reason Pacific have capped capacity at 5000 for the time being, when they probably could have sold 6000k+ for the opener

I think the new mayor and city council are being cock blockers

[Unnamed Trialist]

2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

I think the new mayor and city council are being cock blockers

They're elected public officials who beat the incumbent over his poor record on controlled, rational planning. Langford needs a reset, seating at Starlight is also subject to the relevant review.

[SpursFlu]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

They're elected public officials who beat the incumbent over his poor record on controlled, rational planning. Langford needs a reset, seating at Starlight is also subject to the relevant review.

Translation - cock blockers

[Unnamed Trialist]

55 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Translation - cock blockers

Then Mayor Stu was a public premature ejaculator, your kind of politician not mine.

[Watchmen]

AFTN podcast today.  They usually have a good handle on BC Soccer.  Mentioned that it looks unlikely of expansion team for CPL next year (read: Kelowna is looking unlikely for 2024).

[BearcatSA]

25 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

AFTN podcast today.  They usually have a good handle on BC Soccer.  Mentioned that it looks unlikely of expansion team for CPL next year (read: Kelowna is looking unlikely for 2024).

Not surprised, really.  I thought they'd have a better shot for 2025, the year before our co-hosting of the World Cup.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Not easy to put a price tag on buying a CSB share right now when both the CMNT and CWNT are campaigning against the CSB deal with Ottawa politicians supporting the latter, and there is a ca. $2 million per year financial black hole to be supported in the shape of York United.

[Ansem]

8 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

Not surprised, really.  I thought they'd have a better shot for 2025, the year before our co-hosting of the World Cup.

That also gives an opportunity to have 2 clubs added instead of 1.

[Kingston]

3 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Not easy to put a price tag on buying a CSB share right now when both the CMNT and CWNT are campaigning against the CSB deal with Ottawa politicians supporting the latter, and there is a ca. $2 million per year financial black hole to be supported in the shape of York United.

One way or another York will be a one year drain.  It should not affect long term planning.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

...but would explain why nothing would be happening on expansion this year given a solution needs to be found that ideally still keeps them at 8 clubs and it's not at all clear what that is yet. Then there is the Valour to consider...

[Kingston]

30 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

...but would explain why nothing would be happening on expansion this year given a solution needs to be found that ideally still keeps them at 8 clubs and it's not at all clear what that is yet.

Not really.  If I'm looking to buy in to the league with an expansion team, I'm looking at a minimum five year initial planning window.  Having instability in a club would impact on my big picture decision of whether or not to invest.  If I've decided to invest, however, that means I've decided the league overall is a good bet and what happens to York specifically in 2024 is irrelevant to that decision.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

CanPL is only viable as an ongoing entity with a minimum of eight clubs. Right now there is a serious question mark over the future of two out of eight clubs. They need to get that sorted one way or another whether that be by relocating York and possibly the Valour or downscaling their economic model a bit, and the future of the CSB deal will need to be resolved so that it ceases to be the focus of such bitter controversy, before they will have a firm foundation on which to expand from.

[Kingston]

58 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

CanPL is only viable as an ongoing entity with a minimum of eight clubs. Right now there is a serious question mark over the future of two out of eight clubs. They need to get that sorted one way or another 

As I'm sure they will.

I've previously stated that it was unlikely a new league would start up and all the teams would survive.  I agree that eight teams is a realistic, long term minimum although the league could obviously operate with fewer for a season if necessary.

We've lost Edmonton and I think there's a good chance we'll lose York.  Valour is the only other team that currently has any sort of question mark.  Even if Valour also folded, we would still have six teams.  So that's the worst plausible case right now.

Expansion in Quebec seems very likely.  If Valour stays, that alone gets us to eight again.  Otherwise, we'd need just one of the several other options to come through.  That's not requiring some sort of miracle.

Longer term, I fully expect Edmonton to return.  It's just too important a market for the CPL not to be in.  Ditto Winnipeg if Valour were to fold.  Both would be a few years down the road but they'd eventually be there.

Overall, the league is very close to achieving a sustainable, critical mass of teams.  Certainly we are closer to that than we are to tipping the other way into oblivion.

[BearcatSA]

3 hours ago, Ansem said:

That also gives an opportunity to have 2 clubs added instead of 1.

In BC? I just see Kelowna at this point.  They need to get the stadium stuff sorted out.

[Ansem]

8 minutes ago, BearcatSA said:

In BC? I just see Kelowna at this point.  They need to get the stadium stuff sorted out.

I meant Kelowna + a club in Quebec or Saskatoon or Ontario (Windsor?)

[EnigMattic1]

Are Valour really in that much trouble? I mean, are they in trouble or is it just a case of WFC not seeing much of a return on their "investment"?

With Saskatoon and Windsor already having an expansion slot (provisional or otherwise), Kelowna appearing a strong candidate and Quebec expected, If any teams fold, the league wouldn't be short on teams for long.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

...Overall, the league is very close to achieving a sustainable, critical mass of teams...

...if you believe the official crowd stats, such as the notion that Starlight Stadium was 60% full on Sunday, when it should be blindingly obvious that it was significantly less full than that.

The first step to finding a solution is being able to admit that you have a problem. Otherwise this thing will likely drift along for a few more years until either Dean Shillington or Bob Young realizes that tilting at windmills where MLS is concerned isn't getting them anywhere and they pull the plug like the Fath brothers eventually did in Edmonton when it finally dawned on them that there was never going to be that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. At that point, the last 15 years from the moratorium onwards will/would have been a complete fiasco in terms of growing pro soccer in Canada beyond the three MLS franchises and the infuriating thing is that things didn't have to follow this trajectory.

4 minutes ago, EnigMattic1 said:

Are Valour really in that much trouble? I mean, are they in trouble or is it just a case of WFC not seeing much of a return on their "investment"? ...

When ownership starts making statements about where crowds need to be for a pro sports team in North America to be viable there is a reason to be very worried about how committed they are to keep it going if crowds don't improve markedly and so far they are not. It's a red flag that an exit strategy is beginning to unfold.

[Aird25]

26 minutes ago, EnigMattic1 said:

Are Valour really in that much trouble?

Are you looking for an honest assessment, or wild speculation based on hate, or hope? 

[jonovision]

1 minute ago, Aird25 said:

Are you looking for an honest assessment, or wild speculation based on hate, or hope? 

The truth is probably that without improvements in revenue (gate or otherwise) they will be in trouble. I don't think it's an immediate danger, but in 3 or 4 years there may be a decision to be made. But most of the league has similar gate revenues to Valour so they'll be in the same boat, but those organizations are not as public facing as WFC.

[Bison44]

Enigmattic.... thats a lot of embelishment on the birds part.  Yes Valour management made statements that they need to get the crowds out.   Now it could be a coded red flag the ship is going down, or it could be the way they are trying to drum up more bucks at the turnstiles.  Which is something EVERY team in the league would like to do eh??  Also if you listen to him, Van is about to throw in the towel after 2 home games as well.  If you know anything about the Bombers/Valour situation, you know that Valour never have to make 1 cent of profit and they still help the bombers bottom line by utilizing the stadium.  

[Ansem]

41 minutes ago, EnigMattic1 said:

Are Valour really in that much trouble? I mean, are they in trouble or is it just a case of WFC not seeing much of a return on their "investment"?

According to their own books, the organization as a whole is profitable but Valour does reduce their profitability potential. As an organization, you shouldn't be satisfy with the attendances being this low and changes are needed. It's up to staff to be better to sell the game in Winnipeg but up to owners to give the coach the tools to succeed on the pitch and for the coach with players to deliver.

If you look at MLSE, TFC is a money loser but overall - they are fine with the Maples Leafs and Raptors making up for the loses.

The Bombers makes the whole thing still make sense. Some birdies on this forum took the owner making a negative comment on attendance as a given that he's ready to give back the keys to the league. My personal opinion is that ownership "wants" this club and for it to succeed but I think they don't know how to manage a soccer club proper and keep managing it like a CFL club. I think this is where Forge is different. I get the perception that they understand that and manage both brands separately. If I'm right, Valour will eventually get the same treatment.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Ansem

[SoccMan]

I don’t get why another team in BC should be something that’s needed right now they have two more than enough for now . However, they need to work on getting that Saskatoon team and making it a reality if they can . Moreover, they have to get a team in Quebec for so many reasons and this should be a priority when it comes to expansion . 

[Ansem]

10 minutes ago, SoccMan said:

I don’t get why another team in BC should be something that’s needed right now they have two more than enough for now . However, they need to work on getting that Saskatoon team and making it a reality if they can . Moreover, they have to get a team in Quebec for so many reasons and this should be a priority when it comes to expansion . 

The advantage of 3 BC club means that they could start the season earlier by having more games there at the start of the season

[Kingston]

21 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

if you believe the official crowd stats, such as the notion that Starlight Stadium was 60% full on Sunday, when it should be blindingly obvious that it was significantly less full than that.

I don't actually care if the numbers are tickets distributed instead of tickets sold or if they have been inflated by some freebies.  Over the long run, that will tend to average out and so the trends, which are what matter, will be valid.

Also, the plus/minus is likely to be less than the error bars for "they reported 2500 but I think it was only 2000 because of this highlight video".

Neither is scientifically accurate, so just go with it.

24 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Otherwise this thing will likely drift along for a few more years until either Dean Shillington or Bob Young realizes that tilting at windmills where MLS is concerned isn't getting them anywhere

You've mention this MLS windmill tilting before.  What exactly do you believe the connection with MLS to be?  I don't see that there is one.  These are two completely separate and quite different leagues.  I also don't think any CPL investors are under the illusion that CPL teams will ever reach MLS team valuations.  That's simply not their business plan.

27 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

When ownership starts making statements about where crowds need to be for a pro sports team in North America to be viable there is a reason to be very worried about how committed they are to keep it going if crowds don't improve markedly and so far they are not. It's a red flag that an exit strategy is beginning to unfold.

It's certainly not good, but what of it?  Even losing all three of Edmonton, York, and Valour would not doom the league.  We're going to see some pruning and regrowth in the history of a league that is starting from scratch.  We'll be fine if 2024 looks like:

Pacific, Vancouver, Cavalry, Forge, Atletico, Halifax

Valour with a ?

possibly one of York, Kelowna, Saskatoon, Windsor, Quebec, KW, ?