CPL new teams speculation

[Ansem]

I must have missed Garber learning/speaking French when they wanted Montreal Impact in the league. That totally turned fans and investors off that he couldn't say "bonjour" - sigh!...disingenuous as always.

carry on

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Totally irrelevant to CanPL's attempt to be a national league in a Canadian context. Do you understand that I hope both MLS and CanPL thrive in the years ahead? If not, please stop responding to my posts.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Ansem]

2 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Totally irrelevant to CanPL's attempt to be a national league in a Canadian context. Do you understand that I hope both MLS and CanPL thrive in the years ahead? If not, please stop responding to my posts.

you're right, your comment is beyond irrelevant

[longlugan]

5 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Totally irrelevant to CanPL's attempt to be a national league in a Canadian context. Do you understand that I hope both MLS and CanPL thrive in the years ahead? If not, please stop responding to my posts.

Wow...your most blatant lie yet. Claiming you want the CPL to thrive? Stay true to yourself...douchebag. 

[SoccMan]

On 11/11/2021 at 6:22 PM, SthMelbRed said:

And, if we're sharing stadium porn today, I'd invite you all to have a look at the Western Sydney Stadium, recently built as a shared home for Western Sydney Wanderers (A-League) and a bunch of NRL teams. It hosted the Socceroos WCQ against Saudi Arabia last night in a torrential downpour, and it's magnificent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sydney_Stadium

It's what real football people build when they want to build a new stadium, rather than the various, U-shaped bullshit that MLS keeps barfing up.

I guess you haven’t seen the stadiums in Columbus and Cincinnati  there are quite a few nice proper looking stadiums in the MLS . What U shaped stadiums are you talking about BMO lol probably the worst stadium in the MLS  that I would totally agree on .

[sebdeserio]

1 hour ago, SoccMan said:

I guess you haven’t seen the stadiums in Columbus and Cincinnati  there are quite a few nice proper looking stadiums in the MLS . What U shaped stadiums are you talking about BMO lol probably the worst stadium in the MLS  that I would totally agree on .

The biggest soccer specific stadium in the league with a world class pitch and with a beautiful view of Lake Ontario is the worst stadium in the league just because it's a U? I find that a bit hard to believe especially when Stade Fromage and all the yank football stadiums exist.

[Unnamed Trialist]

2 hours ago, sebdeserio said:

The biggest soccer specific stadium in the league with a world class pitch and with a beautiful view of Lake Ontario is the worst stadium in the league just because it's a U? I find that a bit hard to believe especially when Stade Fromage and all the yank football stadiums exist.

Most experts in rhetoric would agree that the phrase "beautiful view of Lake Ontario" should not be used if arguing any point whatsoever. 

At least since they closed Kingston Penitentiary. 

[SoccMan]

14 hours ago, sebdeserio said:

The biggest soccer specific stadium in the league with a world class pitch and with a beautiful view of Lake Ontario is the worst stadium in the league just because it's a U? I find that a bit hard to believe especially when Stade Fromage and all the yank football stadiums exist.

That’s the problem for me the fact you can see outside of the stadium when seated at your seat , which just means that the stadium is not properly enclosed like it should be. I’m there to watch the game not look and the views outside the stadium. Saputo does not have all the bells and whistles but it’s a proper looking stadium . Actually watching that Calgary CPL game yesterday , if they ever got around to putting 3 more stands like that main covered stand in that stadium , that stadium would look iconic and a must see place to visit to watch a game .

Edited November 21, 2021 by SoccMan

[narduch]

CEBL announced a Newfoundland team today 

[-Hammer-]

38 minutes ago, narduch said:

CEBL announced a Newfoundland team today 

The CEBL also averages like 1,500 a game, although I suppose COIVD is a caveat there.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

 

[Cblake]

On 1/16/2022 at 1:02 PM, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

 

In all honesty how many teams in Ontario can we realistically see. If you have Ottawa, York, Hamilton and Windsor could you see eight ie 4 more. It also seems some of these new League 1 Ontario's like Electric City (Peterborough) and Simcoe County Rovers are pretty ambitious with an eye on CPL down the road.  You throw in Mississauga as mentioned and maybe Kitchener-Waterloo or London. I guess it really comes down to what you think the CPL can grow into and can they be successful on that scale. Plus they really have to figure out Quebec. 

[Kingston]

11 hours ago, Cblake said:

In all honesty how many teams in Ontario can we realistically see... I guess it really comes down to what you think the CPL can grow into and can they be successful on that scale. 

I think you've answered your own question (insofar as it can be answered):  It depends on what assumptions you make.

If one is a CPL extreme optimist, one can look at cities like Peterborough (metro pop 131 000) and imagine a 5000 seat stadium being full for every game.  It happens in cities in the Swedish/Belgian/pick-your-European league.  These same people see successful CPL teams in York, Mississauga, Toronto, Scarborough, and Oshawa because European cities like London support multiple teams.  They invoke rivalries to fill stands, force the MLS teams into the CPL, conjure up massive media deals post-2026, and see a glorious future with a 32 team CPL in two 16 team divisions with pro/rel plus all the D3 leagues across the nation.

Opposite this, one can be a CPL pessimist.  Here we see a CPL that has failed (pre-covid when the teams were new and exciting) to draw even the minimum, break-even 5000 person crowds in almost all its markets.  The only expansion has been to Ottawa which was really just killing off the ownership group of an existing team when they refused to join this experimental new league and replacing them with someone else.  Other expansion discussion has amounted to glitzy talk and exactly zero action.  The owners talked about investing $5 million per team per year but haven't spent that much and have already cut the salary cap instead of raising it.  Player turnover is correspondingly huge and the level of play for most teams is glorified L1O.  There's no actual plan to get the necessary doubling of attendance or to come through on any of the stadium talk, and the team in the league's third largest market has already failed and had to be taken over by the league.  This league will be lucky to be around in 2026, let alone ride some World Cup wave of prosperity.

The reality is probably somewhere in between.  Halifax has shown what can happen when the owners are willing to invest rather than just talk.  Hamilton, too, with the advantages of a larger market and a winning team.  I can see the Halifax model working in Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Quebec, and maybe even Saskatoon.  It could even help rescue Edmonton and get teams like Pacific on a sustainable trajectory.  Because attendances in the two and three thousands are not going to cut it.  We need at least 5000 in any market that wants to survive beyond the time the owner is willing to sugar-daddy things.  Which is going to require owners to act like those in Halifax and actually spend single digit millions on a stadium.

It also realistically means, on any meaningful time frame, a single-tier CPL with perhaps 12 or 14 teams.  We could see something like the existing cities plus Saskatoon, London, KW, and Quebec.  We can argue it but I'm still not convinced sharing markets with the MLS teams will work long term but that's the difference between 12 and 14.  I don't see other markets drawing 5000 if even all these can.  Nor do I see them wanting to split the media and sponsorship pie too many ways.  Why add a marginal team in city X when it only survives by taking media dollars that could push the viable teams to a higher level?  So no D2 and no pro/rel.  No salary cap that lets the teams realistically challenge for the Canadian Championship or make any noise in the CCL.  But ultimately a successful league that's fun to watch and that hugely expands the width of one of the rungs on the ladder that leads to the national team.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

They almost certainly need to change their business plan to something significantly closer to CEBL's for expansion to unfold smoothly. If they were to do that, an eight team Ontario conference with clubs able to survive on a 2000 crowd and thrive on 3000+ would be the easy part to do compared to a Quebec/Maritimes conference.

[Kingston]

5 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

They almost certainly need to change their business plan to something significantly closer to CEBL's for expansion to unfold smoothly. If they were to do that, an eight team Ontario conference with clubs able to survive on a 2000 crowd and thrive on 3000+ would be the easy part to do compared to a Quebec/Maritimes conference.

There are various articles around in which different CPL officials suggested numbers from 5000 to 7000 as being necessary for long term viability.  My experience of following soccer in Canada and the US for a long time says it takes about 5000 to survive in a league with national travel.  In the old CSL/A-League/USL days, the teams that drew 5000 stayed around and those that didn't, didn't.

If you want something like the CPL's current vision of a fully national league, you need 5000.  If you want to regionalize things, then maybe less, but I don't see that working outside the Windsor-Quebec corridor.  Even then, travel is only part of the budget - paying players enough to have a truly professional league is a bigger cost.  So I don't really see getting below 5000 with any viable national model.

[toontownman]

There is a lot of chicken an egg involved still.

As a country we need to prioritize on completing the pyramid, firstly with a consistent D3/L1 across the country, then a D2 that eventually can feed into the D1/CPL. No point money grabbing CPL markets when half of them aren't ready for CPL and it will thin down and decrease the quality of the CPL. The MLS isn't adding another Canadian team, there is no rush to cram a CPL team in multiple pockets around the country. I would rather cap the CPL at a smaller amount of teams until the leagues beneath it justified natural and sustainable growth. I also get why the CPL would rather expand but I don't believe its completely wise. I also know nothing, so apologies that you made it this far. 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

13 minutes ago, Kingston said:

....My experience of following soccer in Canada and the US for a long time says it takes about 5000 to survive in a league with national travel....

Would agree with that and before the league launched I questioned the advisability of attempting that approach again on here given the way they needed a minimum of 8 markets to work that well to have a stable league. 

If people want rapid expansion my argument is that it's only likely to happen with a bus travel business model and a significantly lower break even. As thing stand, Edmonton and York United don't look like they are going to make it long term with the business model that is in place so they may need to add other markets just to be able to stand still in numbers terms.

[Kingston]

23 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Would agree with that and before the league launched I questioned the advisability of attempting that approach again on here given the way they needed a minimum of 8 markets to work that well to have a stable league. 

If people want rapid expansion my argument is that it's only likely to happen with a bus travel business model and a significantly lower break even. As thing stand, Edmonton and York United don't look like they are going to make it long term with the business model that is in place so they may need to add other markets just to be able to stand still in numbers terms.

It sounds like we agree on a lot of the general points.

Edmonton hasn't made it under the current ownership but the city has to make it for the CPL to make it.  We just don't have enough CPL-size markets for it to be otherwise.

As I see it, the CPL needs to succeed in Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Quebec.  These are the core. 

We also need two or more other cities for a useful size league.  I'd suggest some combination of Victoria, Saskatoon, London, KW, and Halifax.  (I'm avoiding the MLS cities where I just don't see the CPL successfully competing but if I'm wrong about that it gives three more options.)

[Kingston]

53 minutes ago, toontownman said:

There is a lot of chicken an egg involved still.

As a country we need to prioritize on completing the pyramid, firstly with a consistent D3/L1 across the country, then a D2 that eventually can feed into the D1/CPL. No point money grabbing CPL markets when half of them aren't ready for CPL and it will thin down and decrease the quality of the CPL. The MLS isn't adding another Canadian team, there is no rush to cram a CPL team in multiple pockets around the country. I would rather cap the CPL at a smaller amount of teams until the leagues beneath it justified natural and sustainable growth. I also get why the CPL would rather expand but I don't believe its completely wise. I also know nothing, so apologies that you made it this far. 

The CPL has talked about a national-level D2 league with pro/rel to D1.  I just don't see it in the foreseeable future.

There aren't enough D1 markets for a large league at a national-travel level as it is.  Also, there isn't enough of a gap in the level of play between D3 and D1 right now to fit an entire league in the middle.

My first priority would be expanding D3 (which is looking good with L1BC starting this year) to feed the existing D1.  Then build from there.

[Aird25]

Delete

Edited January 19, 2022 by Aird25

[EnigMattic1]

I'm going to apologise in advance, but I have only recently got into Canadian soccer and have literally just found this thread.

Could someone sum up where potential teams could be located as it will take me a while to read through 182 pages.

That I have seen on other websites, I have seen London, Fraser Valley and Quebec mentioned a few times. 

[mtlsab]

21 minutes ago, EnigMattic1 said:

I'm going to apologise in advance, but I have only recently got into Canadian soccer and have literally just found this thread.

Could someone sum up where potential teams could be located as it will take me a while to read through 182 pages.

That I have seen on other websites, I have seen London, Fraser Valley and Quebec mentioned a few times. 

Three projects are confirmed by the league : Saskatoon, Fraser Valley, Windsor

[ted]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

We also need two or more other cities for a useful size league.  I'd suggest some combination of Victoria, Saskatoon, London, KW, and Halifax.  

Saskatoon already has a team in the works and we have teams in Victoria and Halifax. Are you suggesting two teams in each market?!? 

[Bison44]

22 minutes ago, EnigMattic1 said:

I'm going to apologise in advance, but I have only recently got into Canadian soccer and have literally just found this thread.

Could someone sum up where potential teams could be located as it will take me a while to read through 182 pages.

That I have seen on other websites, I have seen London, Fraser Valley and Quebec mentioned a few times. 

Your doing pretty good on that list, just add Saskatoon and those cover the possible spots.  But each spot has holes in the plan, either a motivated deep pockets ownership group, applicable stadium etc.  

[EnigMattic1]

7 minutes ago, mtlsab said:

Three projects are confirmed by the league : Saskatoon, Fraser Valley, Windsor

So the Vancouver expansion is in Fraser Valley? I knew of Saskatoon, but that's gone quiet recently hasn't it? And what does a "conditional expansion slot" mean? And Clanachan has the Windsor expansion, doesn't he? 

Edited January 19, 2022 by EnigMattic1