CPL new teams speculation

[Watchmen]

On 11/29/2017 at 11:25 AM, ironcub14 said:

Anyways, sorry for the doom and gloom, I've mostly just extrapolated it from Steven. Let's hope his doom and gloom was strictly about FCEd. Let's hope that there are some good interest bubbling around CPL Edmonton from somewhere, or that Fath is just straight up bluffing.

Steve went out of his way in the article to say that Fath doesn't bluff.  But further, if Fath is telling the truth about the corporate community having no real interest in stepping up to support the team (in one of the bigger markets in Canada), then that's likely of grave concern to any potential owners in this league.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

There's a small nagging doubt at the back of my mind that Duane Rollins was not extrapolating out from the known facts in a speculative sort of way when he blogged about the Benfica vs Rangers game in Hamilton being used as a way to demonstrate to on the fence possible investors that exhibition games involving clubs from overseas could be used to regularly boost income and cover losses sustained on the CanPL operation. That was always a financial disaster waiting to happen (although they no doubt could have attracted a reasonable crowd for a game like that with lower ticket prices that would not have covered the appearance fees and expenses), so that scenario seemed highly far-fetched to me at the time. The reason Tom Fath expressing doubts about the sustainability of the business model should be a massive red flag is that arguably nobody is better qualified right now (OK maybe John Pugh) on what does and doesn't work for fully pro soccer in Canada that isn't MLS. He went ahead and actually did it, while Bob Young and the Ticats have only ever talked about doing it (for around a decade now given the brief Carolina Railhawks involvement started in 2008).

Edited December 1, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[ironcub14]

10 hours ago, Watchmen said:

Steve went out of his way in the article to say that Fath doesn't bluff.  But further, if Fath is telling the truth about the corporate community having no real interest in stepping up to support the team (in one of the bigger markets in Canada), then that's likely of grave concern to any potential owners in this league.

Maybe Fath doesn't bluff, nobody could really know that for sure, but he sure does love to withhold information and play the media properly, and his fellow owners as well. That's the view I had of him throughout the whole USSF D2 sanctioning drama from November to December-ish last year.

[BradMack]

On 12/1/2017 at 6:32 AM, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

There's a small nagging doubt at the back of my mind that Duane Rollins was not extrapolating out from the known facts in a speculative sort of way when he blogged about the Benfica vs Rangers game in Hamilton being used as a way to demonstrate to on the fence possible investors that exhibition games involving clubs from overseas could be used to regularly boost income and cover losses sustained on the CanPL operation. That was always a financial disaster waiting to happen (although they no doubt could have attracted a reasonable crowd for a game like that with lower ticket prices that would not have covered the appearance fees and expenses), so that scenario seemed highly far-fetched to me at the time. The reason Tom Fath expressing doubts about the sustainability of the business model should be a massive red flag is that arguably nobody is better qualified right now (OK maybe John Pugh) on what does and doesn't work for fully pro soccer in Canada that isn't MLS. He went ahead and actually did it, while Bob Young and the Ticats have only ever talked about doing it (for around a decade now given the brief Carolina Railhawks involvement started in 2008).

It makes sense that the Benfica vs Rangers game would be looked at by some potential CPL investors thinking about getting involved, but I don't it failing will have a negative effect on CPL. I think it is a lesson learned about overpricing tickets on, lets face it B teir Euro clubs, and a lesson in how to do these friendlies. CPL clubs now know how exactly not to do this type of event and should have known already as you said, it was clearly always going to fail. The way to do it is obviously mid season, your CPL team against a big Euro club (so theirs only one app fee to pay), and reasonable prices. 

To the point on Tom Fath. I know its not a popular thing to bash him because he's sacraficed a lot of time and money for Canadian soccer, but if we step back and take a look at FC Edmonton do we really think he's the number one guy that qualified to judge pro soccer business plans? I mean, the guy fully bought into NASL (which was apparently ridiculous) and has no interest in the clearly more financially stable USL because of his soccer purist like morals. That should probably indicate that he's not the best judge of solid business plans. Also was FCE really run well as a business? It seems like they only just started running well with the hiring of Jay Ball, but it was too little too late. I appreciate the guy as a passionate owner who likes his club to be an actual club, not a franchise, but I think his passion sometimes gets in the way of his actual business sense. He's an owner I would want to see in the league because he's shown that he will work through rough years, and I want him to see some success in soccer for the years he's bled for it. But I wouldn't really hold his opinion on the leagues business model in higher regard than some of the other investors just because he has some experience running a not very succesful sports franchise for a few years. Remember that some of the other players involved have succesful sports teams in other leagues. 

[Pat Carrasco]

I don't know if anyone caught this one, but could Mississauga be getting a team in the CPL? All indications are pointing towards this direction. It started late this morning when Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie tweeted a message telling Mississaugians to stay-tune for an upcoming announcement. This is the Mayor talking. This is BIG!!!!! This tweet has also gotten Mississaugians all roused up.

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Pat Carrasco

[matty]

On 29/11/2017 at 2:25 PM, ironcub14 said:

I'm fine if CPL launches 2020, I'm fine if CPL looks very little like what I envisioned in a multitude of different ways, but if CPL can't take advantage of the sophisticated existing supporter bases in Edmonton and Ottawa, the 3,000 to 5,000 of them anyways, then I would be quite down on CPL's short and medium-term future, unless all of the CPL sides really blow teams like FCEd and the Fury out of the water with its financial backing.

I mean, there's a big difference between launching and sustaining a league too. I know most people here are concerned mostly only with launching the league, but I'm very much interested in talking about and boosting the sustainability of the league as well. What's the long-term benefit of having launched a CPL, if we do get there, if it crashes and burns spectacularly? If the investors are doing this, they're going to want to get it right the first time, because if it's not sustainable, then none of them are going to be around for the next iteration of a future CPL.

Anyways, sorry for the doom and gloom, I've mostly just extrapolated it from Steven. Let's hope his doom and gloom was strictly about FCEd. Let's hope that there are some good interest bubbling around CPL Edmonton from somewhere, or that Fath is just straight up bluffing. I think the Lynx and TFC provide a very good example in what a different ownership group and a different stadium can do for the financial success of footy in a specific city.

I've been talking about how this survives for months with TV not in the business plan and also expressed great confusion as to how they plan to make this work without TV to a massive groan

Edited December 5, 2017 by matty

[ironcub14]

16 hours ago, matty said:

I've been talking about how this survives for months with TV not in the business plan and also expressed great confusion as to how they plan to make this work without TV to a massive groan

I'll take any of the specialty channels you mentioned at the time, anything to make sure it's on a cable box somehow. Anything is better than nothing, on that very specific topic.

[Rheo]

My apologies.  As pointed out this isn't a new group just one I forgot about it.  Good to see them mentioning it again though.

http://www.thetelegram.com/sports/hockey/edge-owners-now-focusing-on-bringing-qmjhl-team-to-st-johns-also-considering-pro-soccer-or-football-for-city-168323/

Highlights

• John Graham, who helped put together the deal to bring pro basketball to Newfoundland, says the ownership group behind the NBL Canada’s St. John’s Edge is actively working to bring a Quebec Major Junior Hockey League team to Mile One and is even considering the possibility of acquiring a pro soccer or football team for the city. 
• When asked which brands might be under consideration, Graham specifically mentioned the Canadian Premier League, a domestic soccer circuit set to launch in 2018. He was left definitive about football, noting that pro leagues in that sport operate both idoors (arena leagues) and outdoors.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Rheo

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Not new. These guys have mentioned this before in a newspaper article. The market is on the small side, but on the plus side they have a soccer specific stadium that's pretty much ready to go as is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_George_V_Park

Edited December 7, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[BradMack]

2 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Not new. These guys have mentioned this before in a newspaper article. The market is on the small side, but on the plus side they have a soccer specific stadium that's pretty much ready to go as is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_George_V_Park

It's also about as iconic as Canadian soccer stadiums get as well. I feel like it would be a fantastic place to hold the inaugural CPL game in a perfect world. I know thats not going to happen but it would be pretty special to open the CPL in the same stadium our team last qualified for the World Cup. 

On a more serious note, I think the ownership is ideal, and the market is responding well to their basketball team (double league average attendance). I think its important that they are trying to monopolize the market. If they have the basketball team, hopefully a CHL team and the soccer team, they can share resources in the marketing and office staff. They would also have access to season ticket holders for their other teams to directly send them ticket offers. It also helps that soccer would be their only summer sport and football seems pretty far fetched at the moment. 

[Complete Homer]

7 hours ago, Rheo said:

My apologies.  As pointed out this isn't a new group just one I forgot about it.  Good to see them mentioning it again though.

http://www.thetelegram.com/sports/hockey/edge-owners-now-focusing-on-bringing-qmjhl-team-to-st-johns-also-considering-pro-soccer-or-football-for-city-168323/

Highlights

• John Graham, who helped put together the deal to bring pro basketball to Newfoundland, says the ownership group behind the NBL Canada’s St. John’s Edge is actively working to bring a Quebec Major Junior Hockey League team to Mile One and is even considering the possibility of acquiring a pro soccer or football team for the city. 
• When asked which brands might be under consideration, Graham specifically mentioned the Canadian Premier League, a domestic soccer circuit set to launch in 2018. He was left definitive about football, noting that pro leagues in that sport operate both idoors (arena leagues) and outdoors.

Nice to know they are still interested even if it's not necessarily new.

Simon seems to be reasonably large money. Just a quick glance with google, looks like his compensation as CEO of Hain Celestial is ~5 million per year, but it's probably a decent guess that his net worth would put him a much higher category assuming he has retained some amount of stock in the company he founded, which is now valued at 5 billion.

His counterpart Sabbagh seems to own a chain of car dealerships in Brooklyn.

Also good to see that they've managed to draw 3000 to NBL games. Truly nothing against basketball, but I have a hard time believing Newfoundland is a basketball hotspot

[matty]

The problem with St. John's travel really. They're going to be a team that ha to fly everywhere . Fingers cross that this league is able to support that someday because.....

8 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Not new. These guys have mentioned this before in a newspaper article. The market is on the small side, but on the plus side they have a soccer specific stadium that's pretty much ready to go as is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_George_V_Park

...having this stadium in this league would give it a fuck ton of weight and give it a site with some true history. While it is a small market it could be a team that gets the province behind it.

Edited December 8, 2017 by matty

[Rheo]

The reporter wrote a follow up column on the St John's ownership group article

http://www.thetelegram.com/sports/a-brand-new-hockey-game-at-mile-one-in-st-johns-168510/

Mostly dealing with the hockey aspect but it did have this that indicates it may not be so serious CPL wise

• John Graham, the Toronto-based promoter who had negotiated the deal to bring a pro basketball team to St. John’s and who was front and centre Thursday morning, did say the Edge ownership group — which also includes Glace Bay, N.S., native and health-food magnate Irwin Simon — was considering the possibility of someday adding a pro soccer or football team to their stable as part of a “commitment to year-round entertainment, for St. John’s.”

  But those plans could be labelled nebulous or, at best, very long-range, since construction of new facilities would likely be required in either instance. In fact, in prefacing his remarks on the same, Graham said the ownership group had simply requested a survey as to whether locals would prefer soccer — where he specifically mentioned the Canadian Premier League, due to start up next year — or football, where the focus on a league was a little more hazy.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

So the big question is whether St John's are part of the ten, if the principals involved there have the finances to get to what Soefeia termed a few days back as being something along the lines of the big boy's table? If they are it shows that Paul Beirne's 200,000+ markets vision is probably being followed rather than a soccer version of the CFL, because St John's only just qualifies on that and is even smaller than Saskatoon. It would be less visible in municipal approval terms because the soccer association runs a 10,000 seater SSS with floodlights and soccer only marked fieldturf, so fits with the idea that there are markets where things are happening more quietly. Would be nice to see it happen in many ways but budgeting for 4500-6000 showing up for St John's vs Halifax in soccer is a bit scary in an I've seen all this unravel many times before when rhetoric finally collides with reality sort of way.

Edited December 8, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

4 minutes ago, Rheo said:

John Graham, the Toronto-based promoter who had negotiated the deal to bring a pro basketball team to St. John’s...

His name also came up where Saskatchewan was concerned a few months back. Maybe with the Valencia friendly?

Edit: link added to confirm that

http://www.evrazplace.com/public/images/newsMedia/MR_July_22_Soccer-FINAL.pdf

Edited December 8, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[Macksam]

BBTB’s tropes for every 10 or so posts:

1) Mention how the vision is now 200,000 markets rather than a “CFL version” of soccer....whatever this means. I guess he’s trying to imply it will be small scale across the board.

2) Mention how PB banking on getting 4000-6000 paid attendance is scary.

[grasshopper1917]

On 12/8/2017 at 10:52 AM, Macksam said:

BBTB’s tropes for every 10 or so posts:

1) Mention how the vision is now 200,000 markets rather than a “CFL version” of soccer....whatever this means. I guess he’s trying to imply it will be small scale across the board.

2) Mention how PB banking on getting 4000-6000 paid attendance is scary.

I think to put things in perspective the Canadian teams in the indoor lacrosse league draw on average more then 9000 fans a game. I dont think drawing 4000 for soccer is all that 'scarry'.

I dont want to sound cocky but with proper marketing, pricing and creating a fun game day experience it really shouldn't be all that difficult over 15-20 home dates. 

Of course one can not just assume the league will do proper marketing and create the atmosphere. That will take work but with the right people in place it is certainly doable. 

[mpg_29]

Have been following the St. John's NBL team over the last month or so and looking into the numbers of that league I now definitely think the rumoured numbers (salary cap and subsequent attendance) around CPL are extremely optimistic (way too high).

Edited December 9, 2017 by mpg_29

[Complete Homer]

55 minutes ago, mpg_29 said:

Have been following the St. John's NBL team over the last month or so and looking into the numbers of that league I now definitely think the rumoured numbers (salary cap and subsequent attendance) around CPL are extremely optimistic (way too high).

Look a little closer at NBL. They had a franchise in Orangeville (population 30000) that averaged 300 fans. They have zero marketing presence and seem happy getting 1000 fans out in most markets. They've got fairly little in terms of sponsors, and most of their owners don't seem to be in the CPL ballpark 

I agree that 1.5M rumour is probably high (wouldn't blame Rollins for that, it's possible that 1.5M was the number being discussed in 2015), but I don't think we'll see anything close to NBL numbers either

Not intending to put down NBL either... If they get a few more franchises like London and St. John's, maybe they can work towards professionalizing the league. But I'd suspect their low salary cap has quite a bit to do with the need to attract lower end investment given that they've had ten of twenty franchises go under

Edited December 9, 2017 by Complete Homer

[Complete Homer]

1 hour ago, grasshopper1917 said:

Of course one can not just assume the league will do proper marketing and create the atmosphere. That will take work but with the right people in place it is certainly doable. 

I think this is what gets lost in the conversation frequently. It's not just "can a pro soccer league survive", it's "will CPL be well run". This thing won't succeed or fail based purely on the merits of the idea of pro soccer in Canada, much more will be in the way the league goes about its business 

I know that seems obvious, but so often CPL's potential gets compared to leagues that appear similar on a superficial level or past attempts, but ignores what is under the hood of those leagues

They seem to be bringing on really well qualified people and building slowly. Delays suck but it's better to end up with a solid pro league than the above example of NBL, having the whole league turn over in the span of six years

Edited December 9, 2017 by Complete Homer

[mpg_29]

4 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

Look a little closer at NBL. They had a franchise in Orangeville (population 30000) that averaged 300 fans. They have zero marketing presence and seem happy getting 1000 fans out in most markets. They've got fairly little in terms of sponsors, and most of their owners don't seem to be in the CPL ballpark 

I agree that 1.5M rumour is probably high (wouldn't blame Rollins for that, it's possible that 1.5M was the number being discussed in 2015), but I don't think we'll see anything close to NBL numbers either

Not intending to put down NBL either... If they get a few more franchises like London and St. John's, maybe they can work towards professionalizing the league. But I'd suspect their low salary cap has quite a bit to do with the need to attract lower end investment given that they've had ten of twenty franchises go under

See I think people just look at the markets and think attendance will automatically scale relative to population. Overly simplistic analysis. Outside of London the teams in Ontario are not scaling up relative to teams in Atlantic Canada. In fact Windsor hasn't even been reporting their attendance and has higher pop than most of the Atlantic Canada teams.

The St John's Edge owners have stated that they need an avg of 1500 attendance to break even. In general the owners in the NBL didn't have to build a stadium, they have a more efficient flight schedule (due to basketball games being able to play back to back), and from what I can gather a $150,000 salary cap.

When I put these numbers in context of what the CPL is aiming for...their plan does not seem realistic or sustainable at all. The leagues are both trying to operate in the similar markets so to assume soccer will: 1. get 3-4X avg attendance of basketball and 2.  that avg attendance will be able support a league with significantly higher operational costs in all areas.... seems out there. 

I think the salary cap should be $500K at absolute MAX intitally if this thing wants to have a chance at surviving.

 

 

[Ansem]

The only thing we do know regarding the cap is that we don't know. 

Comparing 2 leagues with very different contexts doesn't prove anything

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

7 minutes ago, mpg_29 said:

...The leagues are both trying to operate in the similar markets so to assume soccer will: 1. get 3-4X avg attendance of basketball and 2.  that avg attendance will be able support a league with significantly higher operational costs in all areas.... seems out there. 

I think the salary cap should be $500K at absolute MAX intitally if this thing wants to have a chance at surviving.

I think CanPL has a bit of an identity crisis at the moment. It appears to want to be viewed as the soccer version of the CFL and key people involved clearly can't even tolerate the notion of having any sort of developmental role for MLS but circumstances also dictate playing in some relatively small markets given Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal have USSF sanctioned D1 teams, and as you describe above those markets may be better suited to something lower budget than what is normally rumoured, which is a better fit for the CFL owners in 750k + metro areas.

Worth noting that the wildly successful Saskatchewan Rush that are mentioned above are currently playing in a cross-border nine team league and a Canada only league seems unlikely given franchises have not worked out previously in Vancouver (trying again in Langley but still relatively low crowds), Edmonton, Hamilton, Ottawa and Montreal. Maybe CanPL would take off like that in one of the cities in a FC Cincinnati and Saskatchewan Rush sort of way, but the difficult part is getting it to work in enough cities simultaneously on a relatively high break even so that the whole league can be stable in a Canada only format.

 

[Complete Homer]

1 hour ago, mpg_29 said:

See I think people just look at the markets and think attendance will automatically scale relative to population. Overly simplistic analysis. Outside of London the teams in Ontario are not scaling up relative to teams in Atlantic Canada. In fact Windsor hasn't even been reporting their attendance and has higher pop than most of the Atlantic Canada teams.

The St John's Edge owners have stated that they need an avg of 1500 attendance to break even. In general the owners in the NBL didn't have to build a stadium, they have a more efficient flight schedule (due to basketball games being able to play back to back), and from what I can gather a $150,000 salary cap.

When I put these numbers in context of what the CPL is aiming for...their plan does not seem realistic or sustainable at all. The leagues are both trying to operate in the similar markets so to assume soccer will: 1. get 3-4X avg attendance of basketball and 2.  that avg attendance will be able support a league with significantly higher operational costs in all areas.... seems out there. 

I think the salary cap should be $500K at absolute MAX intitally if this thing wants to have a chance at surviving.

 

 

It's definitely fair to say that scaling up based purely on population is faulty, but I just don't think there are enough similarities between NBL and CPL to draw conclusions from. 

One key thing you pointed out - the NBL owners don't own their own stadiums. My understanding from the lower US division saga we've been following is that the teams that don't own their own stadiums have a very different economic model than the ones who do. Rent alone kills clubs and they lose multiple revenue streams between lost sponsorship and concessions that way. CPL seems to have put stadium ownership as a priority, investing high amounts up front to make the model sustainable. I think that demonstrates a particular attitude that will shape the way the league is run

The difference in ownership is the other key issue. CPL is apparently sustainable at 4500 to 5500 fans. That doesn't necessarily mean break even. We've heard from a couple sources, including a part owner in KW, that the owners are willing and able to lose money to grow the league. Part of that is spending enough to be a proper professional league, other sides include spending enough to attract key employees and actually market appropriately to a wide base. 

Some of the CPL owners are venture capitalists...they understand the idea of leveraging their own wealth by taking losses to grow a business that will have a chance to far outstrip their initial losses, and they likely understand the opportunity cost of limiting their own ceiling by rushing to break even. 

I'm sure they will think long and hard about what costs actually further their goals and which don't. I suspect we will see a cap that enables them to exhibit professionalism and polish, and not a cent more. We can quibble about the exact number, and we really don't have enough info to nail that down, but I suspect they'll at least pay a living wage for all roster spots. 500k wouldn't do that

Beyond that, I think the focus on +/- a few hundred thousand on salaries really is not going to make or break the league. We are hyper focused on that part because, as national team supporters, we're very focused on the development implications of base pay. But if you look at the NASL losses vs player salary costs (look into Kartik Krishnayer's writing), it was more spiralling operations costs than player costs that were the issue. CPL has to stay lean and mean on multiple fronts, and I think we can see evidence of this by their small but qualified front office and the likely collectivizing of production and marketing costs through Stadium Digital 

Edited December 9, 2017 by Complete Homer

[harrycoyster]

1 hour ago, Complete Homer said:

The difference in ownership is the other key issue. CPL is apparently sustainable at 4500 to 5500 fans. That doesn't necessarily mean break even. We've heard from a couple sources, including a part owner in KW, that the owners are willing and able to lose money to grow the league. Part of that is spending enough to be a proper professional league, other sides include spending enough to attract key employees and actually market appropriately to a wide base.

Jake Edwards said a few weeks ago that the USL only had a few teams that were in the black but that the majority of teams were sustainable. If you take "a few" to mean three and a majority to mean 60%, you're looking at ~8000 fans to break even/profit and ~4000 to sustain at USL standards. Obviously that is a lot of speculation and there are a ton of other factors, but it's still interesting information.