Gold Cup: Canada vs Cuba - Tuesday, July 4th - 6:30pm Eastern / 3:30pm Pacific - Houston, TX (Match Thread)

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Gold Cup, Group Stage Match #3
Canada vs Cuba
Tuesday, July 4 2023
6:30pm Eastern / 3:30pm Pacific
Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Texas, USA

Broadcast in Canada:
ONESOCCER (live - online)

Canada's roster:
https://canadasoccer.com/news/canada-announce-squad-for-the-2023-concacaf-gold-cup/
Since the roster was announced, Adekugbe and Eustáquio have been replaced by Fraser and Nelson

 

Canadian players who have played all possible minutes in the previous two matches:
Kamal Millar
Jonathan Osorio
Milan Borjan (GK)

Canadian players who have yet to play a single minute in this Gold Cup:
Scott Kennedy
Victor Loturi
Jayden Nelson
Dayne St. Clair (GK)
Tom McGill (GK)

No Canadian players are suspended but the following Canadian player are on a caution:
🟨 Moïse Bombito
🟨 Lucas Cavallini
🟨 Liam Fraser
🟨 Zac McGraw
🟨 Kamal Miller
🟨 Jacob Shaffelburg
🟨 Steven Vitória

 

Cuban players that will be unavailable:
🟨🟨 Carlos Vázquez (centre-back)
🟥 Aldair Ruiz (forward)

Roberney Caballero (midfielder) "defection"
Jassael Herrera (defender)  "defection"
Denilson Milanés (midfielder) "defection"
Neisser Sandó (midfielder) "defection"

The defection of Milanés is peculiar as he is listed as playing in Costa Rica, whereas the other three are based in Cuba and would be more logical candidates for defection.

The ref:
The Costa Rican Keylor Antonio Herrera Villalobos
He was our ref during the WCQ match in Kingston, Jamaica
https://twitter.com/desigarbitrales/status/1675330903604690945

The weather:
Partly cloudy and ~32°C. No significant rainfall expected.

 

Scenarios:

There is a more detailed post below. We need to beat Cuba. A win by just a goal and we are through in almost all cases except if Guadeloupe and Guatemala play to a draw where it is 2-2 or higher scoring ( 3-3 , 4-4, etc...)

Edited July 3, 2023 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[trc2014]

Also of note that Hoilett might be hurt.

[Addona]

A 5:30pm local time start in Houston… that concerns me more than anything after how lethargic we looked last night

[TGAA_Star]

SMH...they are going to either lose or draw even though we should win

[dyslexic nam]

15 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

SMH...they are going to either lose or draw even though we should win

If they prove you wrong will you mute the BS negativity for a while? 

[gigi riva]

I am not really all that concerned with this tournament where I think Herdmann is using this as glorified Freindlies , We hve noticed the emergence of guys like Ahmed amd Bombito, ( I think Chioniere of Montreal should have gotten a call)  I would rather crash out now  then in 2026 .  But I agree with some they should be playing a bit better 

[TGAA_Star]

35 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

If they prove you wrong will you mute the BS negativity for a while? 

I will but they haven't done anything to wow me

[Floortom]

As negative as I am about our GC squad, I would be shocked if we didnt win by 2+ against Cuba. It's a horrendous roster that has been decimated by defections and suspensions. There's just no way we shouldnt win by 4+ goals IMO.

[SpursFlu]

I'm hoping after the last 2 games none of our players decide to defect 

[dyslexic nam]

1 hour ago, TGAA_Star said:

I will but they haven't done anything to wow me

Right back at ya.  

[Shway]

2 hours ago, gigi riva said:

I am not really all that concerned with this tournament where I think Herdmann is using this as glorified Freindlies , We hve noticed the emergence of guys like Ahmed amd Bombito, ( I think Chioniere of Montreal should have gotten a call)  I would rather crash out now  then in 2026 .  But I agree with some they should be playing a bit better 

It’s not 2026 we are only preparing for but 2024 Copa America.
 

[footballfreak]

Pie in the sky time: If we win by 4 and the other game ends in a draw, we take the group.

[trc2014]

10 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Pie in the sky time: If we win by 4 and the other game ends in a draw, we take the group.

Worst case IMO as US will likely finish first and we would have to play Jamaica.

[footballfreak]

4 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Worst case IMO as US will likely finish first and we would have to play Jamaica.

Jamaica, for all their talent, just mustered 4 shots in a half against St. Kitts & Nevis. We would not be favourites against either side, but Jamaica seem easier to break mentally. They also wouldn’t have a home crowd at their back.

[cornerkick]

3 hours ago, Floortom said:

As negative as I am about our GC squad, I would be shocked if we didnt win by 2+ against Cuba. It's a horrendous roster that has been decimated by defections and suspensions. There's just no way we shouldnt win by 4+ goals IMO.

yeah, Cuba has been poor and is dealing with off the field issues.  With a bit of luck, even another mediocre performance by Canada could still lead to a lopsided result. 

[Canuckia]

34 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Pie in the sky time: If we win by 4 and the other game ends in a draw, we take the group.

I like it! Finish strong and then take on whatever challenge comes next.

[dyslexic nam]

31 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Worst case IMO as US will likely finish first and we would have to play Jamaica.

I would rather play Jamaica than the US (who are currently up 4-0).  

[grigorio]

52 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Worst case IMO as US will likely finish first and we would have to play Jamaica.

Pretty sure we’d get absolutely rocked by either so not sure that it matters. 

[Addona]

This is tricky but I might rest Vitoria for this one and save him for the QF, since he’s sitting on a yellow 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Scenarios

Cuba cannot advance even if they win; they are playing for pride.

A loss to Cuba would mean Canada is eliminated
A draw against Cuba would mean Canada is eliminated

If Guatemala beat Guadeloupe (by any scoreline) and Canada beat Cuba (by any scoreline), Canada will advance as 2nd in Group D and therefore face the USA in the quarterfinals.

If Guadeloupe beat Guatemala (by any scoreline) and Canada beat Cuba (by any scoreline), Canada will advance as 2nd in Group D and therefore face the USA in the quarterfinals.

If Guadeloupe and Guatemala play to a draw (any scoreline) and Canada beat Cuba by four or more goals, Canada will advance as 1st in Group D and therefore face the Jamaica in the quarterfinals.

If Guadeloupe and Guatemala play to a draw (any scoreline) and Canada beat Cuba by two goals or by three goals, Canada will advance as 2nd in Group D and therefore face the USA in the quarterfinals.

If Guadeloupe and Guatemala play to a nil-nil draw or 1-1 draw and Canada beat Cuba by just a single goal, Canada will advance (on tiebreaks) as 2nd in Group D and therefore face the USA in the quarterfinals.

If Guadeloupe and Guatemala play to a 2-2 draw, 3-3 draw, 4-4 draw (or any other draw that is higher scoring), and Canada beat Cuba by just a single goal, tiebreaks against Guatemala will determine if we advance as 2nd in Group D or are eliminated as 3rd in Group D.
The first relevant tiebreak would be goals scored and the 2nd relevant tiebreak would be disciplinary (so far, Guatemala have 4 yellow cards and we have 7 yellow cards). Therefore, the higher scoring the draw, the more precarious the situation would be for Canada.

Did I write this all out correctly?

Edited July 3, 2023 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[kacbru]

Remember when we beat Jamaica 4-0 to qualify for the World Cup less than a year and a half ago?  Who would've thought we'd be back to this:

to map out all the potential scenarios to avoid elimination at the group stage after two games of the Gold Cup?  A group with Guadeloupe, Guatemala and Cuba of all things.  What a time to be alive!

[sose]

15 minutes ago, kacbru said:

Remember when we beat Jamaica 4-0 to qualify for the World Cup less than a year and a half ago?  Who would've thought we'd be back to this:

to map out all the potential scenarios to avoid elimination at the group stage after two games of the Gold Cup?  A group with Guadeloupe, Guatemala and Cuba of all things.  What a time to be alive!

in fairness this is a stronger JA side than they fielded in WCQ

[gigi riva]

5 hours ago, Shway said:

It’s not 2026 we are only preparing for but 2024 Copa America.
 

oh shit I forgot about Copa America

[SirBobsaget]

2 hours ago, kacbru said:

Remember when we beat Jamaica 4-0 to qualify for the World Cup less than a year and a half ago?  Who would've thought we'd be back to this:

to map out all the potential scenarios to avoid elimination at the group stage after two games of the Gold Cup?  A group with Guadeloupe, Guatemala and Cuba of all things.  What a time to be alive!

That was Blake, Morrison and Jamaican league players. Their gold cup roster has Gray, Reid, Antonio, Rid and a bunch more Euro based and MLS starters. They are on paper better than Canada

Edited July 3, 2023 by SirBobsaget

[kacbru]

21 minutes ago, SirBobsaget said:

That was Blake, Morrison and Jamaican league players. Their gold cup roster has Gray, Reid, Antonio, Rid and a bunch more Euro based and MLS starters. They are on paper better than Canada

The point I was trying to make has nothing to do with Jamaica.  It is that I (many of us?) was giddy with excitement - we were returning to the WC, we were entering a new era.  Instead, here we are, a very short time later, doing exactly what we normally do in the Gold Cup - agonize over the results we need just to escape from our group.

My point also has nothing to do with missing CMNT players, whether this is a B, C or D Canada team.  It is the fact that this Gold Cup experience as a fan is much more similar to my previous experiences than I ever could have possibly imagined when we were pumping Jamaica for goals and celebrating going to the WC just last year.

Edited July 3, 2023 by kacbru
grammar