WCQ: Third Round - Window 1 (September 2-8, 2021)

[mrstepp817]

12 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

5 isn't horrible. 

You're right 5 isn't horrible....its just meh..

[Kent]

2 hours ago, RJB said:

Nothing less than six points should be expected.  I'm not going to panic if we only manage four, but we fancy ourselves a top team, and so in order to prove that we have to beat the teams below us.  Especially at home.  

This window is the chance to prove that the promise we showed at the Gold Cup wasn't luck - that it is real progress.  If we come out of this window with six points that will be proof.  Seven points would be superb.  

9 points - unreal!

7 points - superb

6 points - Job done!

5 points - ok I guess, but we can't drop points at home to teams we think we're better than.

4 points - not good enough, but no panic yet.  

3 points - fail

2 points - Fail

1 point  - FAIL

0 points - FAIL FAIL FAIL!

I will say that 5 or 4 points where 3 of them come against Honduras is better than getting a draw or a loss against them. Out of our 3 opponents in September they are the most likely to be fighting for the same spot we want, so we don't want them getting points from us in our home game.

[Kent]

I know there is another thread about tickets, but I know I haven't gotten through it all and it seems more focussed on getting tickets through the Voyageurs, so I want to mention here for others like me that there is a pre-sale tomorrow (August 17th) morning and a public sale Wednesday morning (I think 10am ET on both days, but not sure) for the September qualifiers in Toronto.

[GasPed]

10 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

We played our best half, arguably, at the GC with 4 men back. By shared decision. So odd so many are defending otherwise. 

Point is: who cares how you line up, it's how you play. It was considered better to build from the back, so backs attacking knew they had to get back to cover. Then they said if the backs attack don't do it with both at once. Great. Then, if you get caught with players forwards, let the DM drop into the middle of the back line to allow the CBs to cover wider. And so on. 

If Tajon loses his man like vs the US you are screwed, but if he does it because he thinks he's mostly a mid going forwards, even worse. Same foolishness happened with Davies  vs US in Nations League.

Charge! Then get burnt? Prefer not. 

Precisely because we have attacking talent, 4 back helps free them up without having to ask any wing backs to do so much in both directions

That said, if ES appears at BMO with a single striker, free up the backs when needed by all means. 

I agree, and that's really why I like 4-2-3-1 - I really want to see Davies and Buchanan go all day long at defenses, and let the fullbacks worry about tracking the opposing wingers.  I'd rather not burden them with the "Oh no, where'd that guy come from?" question that plagues every minute of every game for a fullback or wingback.  But then, maybe that's just me.  (And you.) 😉

[GasPed]

13 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Interesting and enjoyable analysis.  May I respectfully disagree with a few things?

1) I don't think 4231 is our best formation right now.  It may use our best players but neither David nor even Larin are a great "1" - pivot striker.  Larin really succeeded working around Aboubakar and David has done the best with/behind other strikers or coming in late to pick up the garbage, in my opinion.  I am not sure we have that player available at this point.  

2) I feel a lot better about our centre backs than I did pre-summer and I don't think that is as "sub-optimal" is it was pretty recently.  Miller impressed me on the ball and we know Johnston is good in that area and Vitoria was smart with his passing out of the centre.  You could move Miller to centre, he is big enough and good enough with the ball, if you wanted to play Kennedy. Even Henry plays a pretty wide RCB for his club, which keeps him away from the penalty area more.  The 3 is very hard to play well in my opinion but we grew leaps and bounds in that area over the summer and have some good, smart players available in certain roles. 

3) Two in the centre midfield scares me in the modern game, not matter who you have there.  For me poor defensive teams are often not (or not just) poor at the back but they make near impossible situations for their defenders by getting over run/out manned in central midfield.  And if your front 4 and maybe your fullbacks are being given license to attack, those two really have to just sit, which is part of Eustaquio's and Hutchinson's game, but it wastes them as well. 

 

A 433 works but that does leave out one of our best players.  The reason the 352 has come back is that if you do it right, you don't have an isolated striker, which defences hate, your midfield can be solid but also allows one of the three to step up or step back if wanted/needed and you are not wasting players defending on a given wing because your mobile centre backs shift over.  I was against the formation initially because I thought it added a player in position we were weak in but we have grown into it.  I believe it strikes the balance between using our best players and using a versatile effective formation. 

 

Appreciate your gentle and thoughtful disagreement!  Thanks! 😉

[An Observer]

3 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

What about if we get 8 points? 😉 

If we get 8 points, we are magicians

[Free kick]

On 8/15/2021 at 9:24 PM, An Observer said:

A couple of things to add:

Its not just who starts but when and who is subbed in.  I suspect teams will take full use of their 5 subs so you could definitely see someone starting for Canada all 3 matches but only being on the the field for an average of 60-70 minutes or so a match.  We seem to be really only focused on who starts but subs will be very important.

We seem to take a very simplistic approach to who starts / doesn't start (ie. we have to start our best 11 the first match).  I think Herdman and co will take a more wholistic approach to the 3 matches and look at predicated match ups.  Therefore, you may see someone not start the first match against Honduras as Herdman and co think another player matches up well with them but see that same player start the next 2 matches.  

I still expect that you wont see all of Davies, David, Buchanan, Eustaquio, Larin start every match even in this window.  I suspect you will see some start on the bench and be ready to come on as an impact sub for 30 minutes or so if needed.  I just realistically don't think you can expect them to start every match especially when you factor in the travel from Europe.  The September window for us is favourable as very little travel but don't forget jet lagged from Europe.  In October, things get much worse for us and I suspect this will apply even more.

Yes.  Lets remember that this remade covid affected schedule will mean 3 games in 7 days.  So there is no way we are going to see the same starters for all three games.  Or even anybody going 90 minutes for more than one game. We are going to see a lot rotating lineups from all the sides and i suspect that everyone who is called is going to play significant minutes.   It will test our depth thats for sure. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by Free kick

[Cblake]

Nashville in really getting quite dire in regards to COVID  and Tennessee in general. Anyone going use common sense and be aware of your surroundings. Packed bars most likely are not worth it at this moment. Safe healthy and safe, enjoy what the city has to offer outside and or where you can keep a distance. 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2021/08/13/nashville-hospitals-covid-19-no-beds/8124120002/

Edited August 17, 2021 by Cblake

[SpursFlu]

Yah skip the packed bar and just go straight to the packed stadium. Use common sense gang and keep your head on a swivel 

Edited August 17, 2021 by SpursFlu

[Free kick]

5 hours ago, RJB said:

Nothing less than six points should be expected.  I'm not going to panic if we only manage four, but we fancy ourselves a top team, and so in order to prove that we have to beat the teams below us.  Especially at home.  

This window is the chance to prove that the promise we showed at the Gold Cup wasn't luck - that it is real progress.  If we come out of this window with six points that will be proof.  Seven points would be superb.  

9 points - unreal!

7 points - superb

6 points - Job done!

5 points - ok I guess, but we can't drop points at home to teams we think we're better than.

4 points - not good enough, but no panic yet.  

3 points - fail

2 points - Fail

1 point  - FAIL

0 points - FAIL FAIL FAIL!

This is my exact thoughts.   But looking at past WCQ hex cycle, the early windows produced a lot of Draws.   So it will depend not only on what we do but what others (like Costa rica, Jamaica and Honduras) do.   Mexico has been know to drop points early on and then kick it into high gear in the later cycles.    The whole point to remember is that anyone playing in this cycle is playing to qualify for the WC.  Not to finish first.

But yes, i still agree with your main point and table for this reason:  In this cycle, we have two home games!  Thats important to note.  We wont have that in the next window.  And in the later windows, we will have some home matches versus Mexico and the US where we will be the underdog and whereby it will be harder to get those 5 or six points.  

Edited August 17, 2021 by Free kick

[Cblake]

10 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah skip the packed bar and just go straight to the packed stadium. Use common sense gang and keep your head on a swivel 

At this point the V section is not going to be very packed as only two tickets have been sold way up their at this point. Finding wide open space may be easier than you think for this game. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

10 hours ago, An Observer said:

If we get 8 points, we are magicians

We could win all three then scour FIFA regulations in search of an undeserved single point reduction. 

Considering our only Gold Cup win was after a coin toss it'd auger well for the entire campaign. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[Kadenge]

13 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

What about if we get 8 points? 😉 

8 points in 3 games is possible in Concacaf

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

https://www.diez.hn/laseleccion/1486191-498/honduras-se-concentrara-toronto-canada-desde-26-agosto-eliminatorias

-Honduras will name their squad sometime after August 22nd. 
-Honduras NT staff and domestic-based players will arrive in Canada on August 26th ( somebody find their hotel!  )
-Players based elsewhere in the world will join them afterwards (FIFA dates)
-Alberth Elis and Romell Quioto are still doubtful

[Shway]

9 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

https://www.diez.hn/laseleccion/1486191-498/honduras-se-concentrara-toronto-canada-desde-26-agosto-eliminatorias

-Honduras will name their squad sometime after August 22nd. 
-Honduras NT staff and domestic-based players will arrive in Canada on August 26th ( somebody find their hotel!  )
-Players based elsewhere in the world will join them afterwards (FIFA dates)
-Alberth Elis and Romell Quioto are still doubtful

That’s massive to their attack, possibly two of their best players. Meaning Bengston will likely be there, and maybe the return of Lozano, and Rochez. 

Honduras has never been an on paper team, but I’m still expecting 3 points. 

[Shway]

My 26 man squad prediction:

Milan Borjan
Maxine Crepeau 
James Pantemis

———

Richie Laryea
Allistair Johnston
Sam Adekugbe 
Scott Kennedy
Kamal Miller
Steven Vitoria
Doneil Henry
Cristian Gutierrez 
Zachary Brault- Guillard

———

Atiba Hutchinson
Stephen Eustaqiuo 
Jonathan Osorio
Samuel Piette
Mark-Anthony Kaye
Scott Arfield
David Wotherspoon 

——

Alphonso Davies
Jonathan David
Cyle Larin
Tajon Buchanan 
Junior Hoilett
Theo Corbeanu 
Liam Millar

[Shway]

My starting XI for Honduras:

——-——-David—Larin———-

Davies———Hutchinson———Buchanan
————Kaye———Eustaqiuo—————

———Miller—Kennedy—Johnston————

———————Crepeau—————————

[BrennanFan]

18 minutes ago, Shway said:

My 26 man squad prediction:

Milan Borjan
Maxine Crepeau 
James Pantemis

———

Richie Laryea
Allistair Johnston
Sam Adekugbe 
Scott Kennedy
Kamal Miller
Steven Vitoria
Doneil Henry
Cristian Gutierrez 
Zachary Brault- Guillard

———

Atiba Hutchinson
Stephen Eustaqiuo 
Jonathan Osorio
Samuel Piette
Mark-Anthony Kaye
Scott Arfield
David Wotherspoon 

——

Alphonso Davies
Jonathan David
Cyle Larin
Tajon Buchanan 
Junior Hoilett
Theo Corbeanu 
Liam Millar

I would add Akindele. He did well enough at the Gold Cup, and we may need a physical presence up top to finish games in the absence of Cavallini. 

[Sal333]

30 minutes ago, Shway said:

My starting XI for Honduras:

——-——-David—Larin———-

Davies———Hutchinson———Buchanan
————Kaye———Eustaqiuo—————

———Miller—Kennedy—Johnston————

———————Crepeau—————————

If it was a one off I don't think anyone would argue with your starting XI. The problem is that first game is on the 2nd and the next game is on the 5th. Who you decide to play on the 5th will affect your roster on the 2nd. Something tells me Herdman is gonna mix and match his roster with all three games in mind.

[JamboAl]

Is there a squad size limit?  For three matches, would it be best to call 30 players  or more in case of injuries or positive Covid tests?

[Unnamed Trialist]

39 minutes ago, Shway said:

My 26 man squad prediction:

Milan Borjan
Maxine Crepeau 
James Pantemis

———

Richie Laryea
Allistair Johnston
Sam Adekugbe 
Scott Kennedy
Kamal Miller
Steven Vitoria
Doneil Henry
Cristian Gutierrez 
Zachary Brault- Guillard

———

Atiba Hutchinson
Stephen Eustaqiuo 
Jonathan Osorio
Samuel Piette
Mark-Anthony Kaye
Scott Arfield
David Wotherspoon 

——

Alphonso Davies
Jonathan David
Cyle Larin
Tajon Buchanan 
Junior Hoilett
Theo Corbeanu 
Liam Millar

Good line-up

Only doubts: third keeper. Not an overly important point though, St Clair could repeat just because he's not getting minutes with his club, Pantemis in Covid isolation.

Gutiérrez joining the group. Makes sense to have more defensive bodies as you make changes when players have cards, etc.

As in the middle I'm not sure both Hutch and Arfield will be there, Liam Fraser would probably repeat.

In attack: Cavallini would still be injured then? Otherwise, he'd repeat I'd think. Need that kind of player in certain matches and David, who should know how to play as a target, does not.

Apart from that, looks good to me.

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

In attack: Cavallini would still be injured then? Otherwise, he'd repeat I'd think. Need that kind of player in certain matches and David, who should know how to play as a target, does not.

I believe Cav is out 6 weeks, so he'll miss Sept for sure and may be a doubt for October as well.

[Shway]

11 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Is there a squad size limit?  For three matches, would it be best to call 30 players  or more in case of injuries or positive Covid tests?

You would think right? But I've been seeing from the squads that have been released are around 26. It's definitely possible (likely what the states will do for sure) to bring 30 guys into camp, and have the extras listed as camp guys.

[Shway]

34 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

I would add Akindele. He did well enough at the Gold Cup, and we may need a physical presence up top to finish games in the absence of Cavallini. 

I agree, he brings something different from David, and Larin. He was on my initial list. But I went with Millar instead even though I don't think he'll see a single minute.

[Obinna]

11 minutes ago, Shway said:

You would think right? But I've been seeing from the squads that have been released are around 26. It's definitely possible (likely what the states will do for sure) to bring 30 guys into camp, and have the extras listed as camp guys.

Since we have two home games we may be tempted to go with a few extra guys - camp guys if you will.