Ottawa CPL Club

[PaulV]

15 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

Surely the locals' view of the Fury is also at jeopardy from this ordeal?

I don't think the average casual fan is nearly as invested in this as the people on this forum. Look at Edmonton, their attendance didn't magically change by any huge amount simply by being in the CPL versus the NASL. At this level of pro sports, people have to be made to care for some reason, it's not just going to happen by default.

[JamboAl]

29 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

Surely the locals' view of the Fury is also at jeopardy from this ordeal?

A small number yes.  But it has also hardened the views of an equally small number of others who were at first slightly anti-CPL but who are now pretty hostile.  As I've mentioned before here, many people who have heard of the Fury aren't even aware of the CPL's existence (or care).

[Aird25]

7 minutes ago, PaulV said:

I don't think the average casual fan is nearly as invested in this as the people on this forum. Look at Edmonton, their attendance didn't magically change by any huge amount simply by being in the CPL versus the NASL. At this level of pro sports, people have to be made to care for some reason, it's not just going to happen by default.

Than why would the opinion of the casual fan be a road block to starting a CPL team in Ottawa?

[Red and White]

23 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

Surely the locals' view of the Fury is also at jeopardy from this ordeal?

Most locals view of the Fury hasn't moved strongly from previous years. It's the local pro club - that's enough for the vast majority who are vaguely aware of leagues the club plays in.

As time passes and CPL becomes established, I think more locals will start wondering 'why aren't we in CPL?'.

Of the hard core supporter types, its split between 'stand by the club no matter what' meaning there is support for staying in USL and those who strongly want CPL. Even within this group, there is a large contingent who aren't swayed either way by which league Fury is in.

The fact that few fans strongly want to be in USL is what intrigues me about OSEG fighting so hard to stay. They'll lose almost no customers by moving to CPL. They've lost a couple by choosing USL - in addition to the drama they've had to go through.

[PaulV]

3 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

Than why would the opinion of the casual fan be a road block to starting a CPL team in Ottawa?

Because you're not going to attract people simply by being in the CPL, so you're left cannibalizing the Fury's existing fan base. You can try and do it better, but they have the stadium and six years of being known as the local soccer team. You're left with a lose-lose situation which is I think, the point that was being made. I don't see any investors lining up to try that, personally.

[Aird25]

A differing philosophy is a pretty common reason for new clubs to split off, and fans will always be cannibilized from existing teams. I followed the Whitecaps pretty closely prior to the CPL, but I've hardly watched a game this season. I have no clue whether the support for a new team is there in Ottawa, but I wouldn't write it off out of fear, before doing the appropriate market research

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

10 minutes ago, Red and White said:

...The fact that few fans strongly want to be in USL is what intrigues me about OSEG fighting so hard to stay....

Follow the money. What a lot of people on here don't tend to consider is what could be attractive about staying in USL from an OSEG standpoint? If/when MLS stop expanding and the reserve teams get jettisoned to USL 1, the value of a USL Championship franchise could ramp up considerably, because USL plans to keep its numbers quite limited.

 

[Viruk42]

48 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Follow the money. What a lot of people on here don't tend to consider is what could be attractive about staying in USL from an OSEG standpoint? If/when MLS stop expanding and the reserve teams get jettisoned to USL 1, the value of a USL Championship franchise could ramp up considerably, because USL plans to keep its numbers quite limited.

 

Sorry, the 36 team div-2 league that has added an average of 3 teams each of the last 4 seasons, the same league that was a 14 team div-3 league just 5 years ago, is planning to keep its numbers limited?

Edited August 9, 2019 by Viruk42

[ted]

16 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

If the CPL does not loosen its collective tight asszz and let in other teams in similar conditions as the existing ones, this will happen: teams will fold before new teams enter, and we'll be heading into the pile of hot feces once again.

Huh?!?

What teams and what conditions? 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

He's arguing correctly IMO that the entry/franchise fee should have been kept the same and that new teams should be viewed as an asset in terms of building the sponsorship base rather than as an extra mouth to feed, and I would have thought the prime candidate to fall by the wayside after a few years should be obvious (hint: German word for no).

[PaulV]

41 minutes ago, Viruk42 said:

Sorry, the 36 team div-2 league that has added an average of 3 teams each of the last 4 seasons, the same league that was a 14 team div-3 league just 5 years ago, is planning to keep its numbers limited?

The USL President was interviewed recently and said that they would be adding 6-8 teams to the USLC and then that would be it.

[Viruk42]

9 minutes ago, PaulV said:

The USL President was interviewed recently and said that they would be adding 6-8 teams to the USLC and then that would be it.

Ah yes, the wonderfully small 42-44 team league. How quaint.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

7 minutes ago, Viruk42 said:

Ah yes, the wonderfully small 42-44 team league. How quaint.

In per capita population terms that would be a 4 team league in a Canadian context, so it could become something that is highly sought after, which means franchise values are likely to escalate. We are exploring why they might want to stay. Please steer clear if you are unable to discuss that rationally and with emotional detachment.

[dyslexic nam]

16 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

In per capita population terms that would be a 4 team league in a Canadian context, so it could become something that is highly sought after, which means franchise values are likely to escalate. We are exploring why they might want to stay. Please steer clear if you are unable to discuss that rationally and with emotional detachment.

You don't assess league team values on a per capita basis.  On a per capita basis, the Chinese Super League would be in a similar situation if it had over 170 teams.  That has no logical connection to the idea of a team's value.  

The league has to function in a meaningful way, and in a way that will engage fans and make them care about rivalries - otherwise the teams are worth nothing.   Capping a 2nd division league (in a soccer landscape where there are a plethora of higher quality viewing options) at 44 teams does not do this. 

[JamboAl]

2 hours ago, Aird25 said:

A differing philosophy is a pretty common reason for new clubs to split off, and fans will always be cannibilized from existing teams. I followed the Whitecaps pretty closely prior to the CPL, but I've hardly watched a game this season. I have no clue whether the support for a new team is there in Ottawa, but I wouldn't write it off out of fear, before doing the appropriate market research

in a place like England, I concur wholeheartedly.  In Ottawa, there isn't that depth of feeling or passion about any league. 

I would be shocked if appropriate market research would tell you that two pro soccer teams in the city would be financially viable past  2-3 seasons.  And if you are cautious like the CPL in maintaining healthy clubs, why would you take that huge gamble?   

[Viruk42]

33 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Please steer clear if you are unable to discuss that rationally and with emotional detachment.

Not withstanding the fact that my comments on the absurd suggestion that a 36-44 team league is "small" or "limited" were completely "rational" and came from a position of "emotional detachment", you come across as a massive prick for writing that. Who put you in charge? When did you become the gatekeeper of this discussion? Why do you feel this need to project an air of superiority all the time?

Furthermore it's also complete bullshit - we're talking about human beings, people who have emotions and are completely irrational all the time. Why might the Fury want to stay in USL? I dunno, maybe because they have emotions and are irrational? Why might the fans want them to stay? Could it be that they have emotions and are irrational? Why do I want them in the CPL? Well you see, as a human, I happen to have these things called emotions and sometimes they make me irrational. 

You can try to separate emotions from arguments regarding the Fury's decision but (a) you will fail and (b) if you somehow succeed, you will then be considering a fantasy and not the reality.

[narduch]

I just don't get what the Fury see in USL as a long term investment.

The franchise values can't be that great considering the league hands out franchises like candy.

They are never getting into MLS, so they can't use the league like a springboard like teams like Cincinnati. 

I do think they are more likely to form rivalries if they join CPL. Plus CPL offers them another chance at the Concacaf Nations/Champions League. They can't get that in USL.

[narduch]

1 hour ago, Viruk42 said:

Ah yes, the wonderfully small 42-44 team league. How quaint.

To be fair they are talking about forcing all the MLS reserve teams into the lower division where TFC II plays.

That still makes the league too big, in my opinion.

[Ansem]

1 hour ago, Viruk42 said:

Ah yes, the wonderfully small 42-44 team league. How quaint.

That's America for you..."bigger MUST mean better"

[PaulV]

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

You don't assess league team values on a per capita basis.  On a per capita basis, the Chinese Super League would be in a similar situation if it had over 170 teams.  That has no logical connection to the idea of a team's value.  

The league has to function in a meaningful way, and in a way that will engage fans and make them care about rivalries - otherwise the teams are worth nothing.   Capping a 2nd division league (in a soccer landscape where there are a plethora of higher quality viewing options) at 44 teams does not do this. 

It's true that the Fury have not really developed any really strong rivalries in the USL. It's really only 18 teams though since it's a regional league and if you're a fan of an Eastern team, the West might as well not exist (like MLB before inter-league play). It makes it less engaging for existing fans for sure.

From OSEG's point of view though, is that enough to make a difference? There is no more obvious rival for Edmonton than Calgary, yet attendance so far has shown that having a rival has not really made a difference in attendance since NASL days when they had none. Secondly, the natural rivals for Ottawa are Montreal and Toronto and we know that neither league delivers that, that comes only in the Canadian Championship. Rivalries are going to have to develop from scratch and are a longer term play. Ottawa's attendance is around the CPL's average.

That suggests to me that from OSEG's point of view, there is probably some economic reason (either hard dollars, or risk) for staying in the USL in the short term, since evidence seems to point to leagues and opponents not really making a huge difference to the number of people coming in to the stadium at this level. What that is...don't know, only they have access to the books.

As for the USLC itself, it's developed a pretty successful niche for itself and appears to be a stable home for US cities both with MLS aspirations and those who are probably too small but still want to grow pro soccer.  Certainly nothing to be looked down upon. For Ottawa it provided a good life raft when it looked like the NASL was about to sink, and OSEG was shrewd enough to grab it.

[Bison44]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

To be fair they are talking about forcing all the MLS reserve teams into the lower division where TFC II plays.

That still makes the league too big, in my opinion.

How many "official" reserve teams are left in the championship??  4-5??  Most have switched over to a loose affiliation arrangement, ie montreal and ottawa.  So even demoting them and adding another 6-8 (thanks Paul V) still makes for a bigger league.  

As for any CPL expansion clubs, no one knows exaclty what kind of deal or fee etc is being negotiated.  And we dont know how the league is valuing the intitial 7 teams investment /commitment to the league when there was no TV deal, no nothing.  We can all agree that if you dont get in on the ground floor, and want to jump on the bandwagon after someone else proves up the concept you'll have to pay more.  Anyone coming in now, can point to Calgary defeating the whitecaps, Forge vs Antigua, the quality of of onfield play etc to help bring in investors etc.  So many question marks have been answered.  Which should make things easier for expansion clubs.  But I agree with UT, it cant be such a penalty that it keeps new teams from coming in, or it could all go south (and I dont mean to the states) very quickly.  

[PaulV]

27 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

How many "official" reserve teams are left in the championship?? 

I believe it is nine MLS-owned: Tacoma, Portland, LA, Salt Lake City, Swope Park, Atlanta, Loudoun, Bethlehem, New York

[CDNFootballer]

"Follow the money. What a lot of people on here don't tend to consider is what could be attractive about staying in USL from an OSEG standpoint? If/when MLS stop expanding and the reserve teams get jettisoned to USL 1, the value of a USL Championship franchise could ramp up considerably, because USL plans to keep its numbers quite limited. "

 

USL franchises value is based on the current expansion fee (8 million apparently) and is not necessarily the amount that one could sell their team for, how does this help OSEG as they're unlikely to sell for anywhere near that valuation even if they could find a buyer. How does the phantom value get capitalized on by OSEG in actuality?

The reason that Fury are not keen on switching to CPL IMHO is $$$ they will save by staying put - they likely are paying their entry fee into USL (5 million roughly) over a 10 year period and don't want to pay a multi million dollar entry fee into CPL on top of still paying to USL for 7 more years as well.

[ted]

On 8/9/2019 at 9:48 AM, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

He's arguing correctly IMO that the entry/franchise fee should have been kept the same and that new teams should be viewed as an asset in terms of building the sponsorship base rather than as an extra mouth to feed,

Interesting argument but not one that moves the needle for me. Those organizations that took the plunge in year one should be rewarded for that. Subsequent expansions have to balance what the market will bear and the benefit more teams bring to the league.

I don't see why we are even discussing this. The league needs more teams. You know it, I know it, the League knows it. If they set the price of expansion too high they are just fucking themselves. It will work itself out.

 

On 8/9/2019 at 4:35 PM, CDNFootballer said:

USL franchises value is based on the current expansion fee (8 million apparently) and is not necessarily the amount that one could sell their team for, how does this help OSEG as they're unlikely to sell for anywhere near that valuation even if they could find a buyer. How does the phantom value get capitalized on by OSEG in actuality?

The reason that Fury are not keen on switching to CPL IMHO is $$$ they will save by staying put - they likely are paying their entry fee into USL (5 million roughly) over a 10 year period and don't want to pay a multi million dollar entry fee into CPL on top of still paying to USL for 7 more years as well.

 If they could not get a buyer to pay them $7m then the USL will never add another expansion team for $8m. Are you saying noone would pay $8m for a USL franchise?! If someone wants to have a team in USL and the fee is $8m to buy in, if they can buy in for less than that why wouldn't they?!?!

As for the bizarro world where they want to keep paying a debt for seven more years, if they can  get $7m for their USL rights, the debt is paid and they have money in the bank to put towards CanPL. There is no scenario here where Ottawa loses money moving to the CanPL that I can see.

[Aird25]

I don’t care what the entrance fee is, I hate that it even exists.