CPL 2022 Season Attendance

[Dkolish3]

Just so you guys know it was mentioned in reddit that at 15,000 attendance, Oc Transpo sets up a special service to transport fans. So it might be in the club's interest to be just under. Instead of paying for extra busses. 

[m-g-williams]

8 hours ago, Dkolish3 said:

Just so you guys know it was mentioned in reddit that at 15,000 attendance, Oc Transpo sets up a special service to transport fans. So it might be in the club's interest to be just under. Instead of paying for extra busses. 

Does the team have to pay for the extra busses though? I know Atletico, the 67s and the Red Blacks have an agreement with OC Transpo to let ticket holders ride for free to and from the matches, but I always assumed that it was on OC Transpo to guarantee the necessary capacity.

[Kingston]

11 minutes ago, m-g-williams said:

Does the team have to pay for the extra busses though? I know Atletico, the 67s and the Red Blacks have an agreement with OC Transpo to let ticket holders ride for free to and from the matches, but I always assumed that it was on OC Transpo to guarantee the necessary capacity.

As an out of towner, I really appreciate this service.  We drive in to some place convenient and then hop transit for the ride to the stadium since parking is not easily available at the stadium itself.  It's a very slick setup for us and I assume it works equally well for locals who don't live near the stadium.

Also, great crowd for that match!  Too bad the home team couldn't score at least one to give them a chance to really cheer.

[Ansem]

I think the league's challenge is ensuring that this becomes the norm, not the exception... They have work to do but the potential is clearly there with regards to attendances

[Pottsy3]

A question that popped into my head when watching the match yesterday. In the event where HFX were to host a home final, I wonder if the club would have any capacity to temporarily increase capacity for a finals?

[Ansem]

6 minutes ago, Pottsy3 said:

A question that popped into my head when watching the match yesterday. In the event where HFX were to host a home final, I wonder if the club would have any capacity to temporarily increase capacity for a finals?

They'd have to ask the city for permission. They are working on getting a permanent stadium built on site as of now. 10k would make sense with the ability to further expand if they need too.

[Kingston]

Now that the entire seasons is done, we can look at attendance and trends overall.  What do we see?  For me, it goes like this:

Halifax:  Doing well with an average just over 5800. Still the standard-bearer in that they are drawing big crowds game in and game out.  I hope they can put together a winning team to reward the fans and keep up the interest.

Ottawa:  This is really their first year to set a baseline.  They averaged just over 4000, which means they had not yet recaptured the full market the Fury had, but this past weekend proved that market is there for them.  I expect next season they will become our second club to sustainably average over 5000.

Forge:  Just over 3600 average this year.  They've drawn big crowds for the big games (13 000 for the Canadian Championship, 7000 for the playoff semi-final) so the market is there.  I'm not sure what more they have to do to improve their day to day?  Maybe try winning once in a while?    But I'm optimistic they are heading in the right direction.

Calgary:  Just a hair under 3500 for an average.  To me, they feel like they're firming up but then they do something like draw 500 fewer fans to their playoff game than their season average.  So, positive but work to do.

Pacific:  3178 average.  This is actually quite good for the smallest market in the league.  They drew even better for their big games (CL, playoff).  Eventually they are going to need to become a sort of west coast Halifax to get up to the 5000 mark.  There is a buzz, though, and the planned stadium upgrades may help, too.

Valour:  Just over 3100 average.  While that number looks like a good start for Pacific, it doesn't look as good in Winnipeg and it doesn't feel like things are heading in a positive direction.  Winning more would help but they need to figure out something else because you can't count on winning every year.  Also, they have the market size where they should be able to baseline much higher.

York:  1200 average.  This market has not bought into this team.  The owners may be willing to support the losses but I'd prefer a league where the teams can at least break even on their own.  Personally, I think the problem is trying to share a market with TFC and is therefore unfixable, but maybe there's something else and the owners can address it.

Edmonton:  Just under 1100 for the league-owned team.  Long term, the CPL needs a team in Edmonton.  Short term, they need to let this team die so that someone can come back and do it right.  Not ideal but there's no shame in acknowledging reality here.

[jonovision]

^ A shorter summary would be that all of the teams except Halifax are seeing numbers that are short of what they need to be successful, but all teams also increased attendance YoY from 2021. That's the trend that needs to continue. 

[Kingston]

46 minutes ago, jonovision said:

^ A shorter summary would be that all of the teams except Halifax are seeing numbers that are short of what they need to be successful, but all teams also increased attendance YoY from 2021. That's the trend that needs to continue. 

Yes, although even in a short summary I'd add that some teams look like they will reach sustainability in a reasonable time frame while others don't.

[jonovision]

2 hours ago, Kingston said:

Yes, although even in a short summary I'd add that some teams look like they will reach sustainability in a reasonable time frame while others don't.

Next year will be key to clarifying the overall trend. Hopefully less impacted by COVID as well (remember peak season ticket sales season was also peak Omicron season). Attendance for other sports in Canada in 2022 (NHL, CFL) has not returned to pre-COVID levels.

[Shway]

4 hours ago, Kingston said:

York:  1200 average.  This market has not bought into this team.  The owners may be willing to support the losses but I'd prefer a league where the teams can at least break even on their own.  Personally, I think the problem is trying to share a market with TFC and is therefore unfixable, but maybe there's something else and the owners can address it.

This is so easy to say....

I think they are still trying to dig themselves from the 9 foot grave they initially created with the bad marketing/positioning.
The solution isn't to compete with TFC, but to use their gameday experience as a bench mark that is sorely lacking at York U regardless of the minor renos they did.

They need to find something intimate, and make it feel like its a home. Pacific, HFX, and Cavalry have all done this.

[Aird25]

4 hours ago, jonovision said:

^ A shorter summary would be that all of the teams except Halifax are seeing numbers that are short of what they need to be successful, but all teams also increased attendance YoY from 2021. That's the trend that needs to continue. 

Assuming attendance is the only source of revenue for teams? Pacific probably made 50% of their player salaries from transfers this season

[Lurker]

5 hours ago, Ansem said:

They'd have to ask the city for permission. They are working on getting a permanent stadium built on site as of now. 10k would make sense with the ability to further expand if they need too.

I didn’t know the 6500 was a limit set by the city.  That’s interesting.  It does feel like there’s a few spots they could modify to squeeze in some more people.  Regardless, hopefully a permanent fixture gets the go ahead… I wonder what the latest is on that front, I haven’t heard anything for a while now.

[shermanator]

Don't forget that Cavalry own their stadium and get every penny of revenue that comes with a gameday. They make more money off 3500 attending their game than other clubs would.

[Ansem]

Good summary - I'll add comments to your points which I find really. The points below excludes some of the stuff the league has little to no control on like TV exposure (MediaPro) which will impact the way they build their overall schedule

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Halifax:  Doing well with an average just over 5800. Still the standard-bearer in that they are drawing big crowds game in and game out.  I hope they can put together a winning team to reward the fans and keep up the interest.

I share the same opinion. They've done everything right except beating the Fury and have a good product on the pitch. Ok, low blow about the loss to the Fury but they defended well against Montreal. Being a playoff club would be a much deserved reward to the fans and with the change in coaching and roster overall, we could get there.

Also, an attractive permanent stadium might make this thing blow up even more!

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Ottawa:  This is really their first year to set a baseline.  They averaged just over 4000, which means they had not yet recaptured the full market the Fury had, but this past weekend proved that market is there for them.  I expect next season they will become our second club to sustainably average over 5000.

I think this game was a defining moment for the club, they just need to keep this level of quality on the pitch and add more piece to their very good core. They are already doing a fantastic job on the marketing side - they will surpass the Fury average attendance in no time.

I'm about to bring this up with Forge but who can argue that seeing a good crowd on TV makes you want to be there. Can they just switch the camera to film the crowd already? (Same for York)

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Forge:  Just over 3600 average this year.  They've drawn big crowds for the big games (13 000 for the Canadian Championship, 7000 for the playoff semi-final) so the market is there.  I'm not sure what more they have to do to improve their day to day?  Maybe try winning once in a while?    But I'm optimistic they are heading in the right direction.

Maybe sit people in the freaking shades instead of letting them cook in the sun? 🤣 (Also, we'd be looking at a crowd on TV instead of empty seats.)

I saw more cross-team promotion being done between the Tigers-Cars and Forge, definitely a good idea. I expect more bundles between both clubs to boost Forge attendances. Winning and Champions League games will definitely help with attendances

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Calgary:  Just a hair under 3500 for an average.  To me, they feel like they're firming up but then they do something like draw 500 fewer fans to their playoff game than their season average.  So, positive but work to do.

Aren't they the most expansive tickets in the league? They might be making more money with less attendance. Also, they have the HUGE advantage to OWN their grounds which helps reduce expenses quite substantially. I like what they are doing and there's nowhere else to go but up for Cavalry.

Winning retroactively the 2019 & 2020 season should be celebrated once the league unveils the new cup for that - a nice reminder to fans (especially casuals) that they have a very good team to call their own.

I don't know Calgary enough to know what else could be done "off the pitch" but their marketing efforts seems to be on point. Unfortunately, exposure is on Onesoccer court and the CBC broadcast deal is missed BIG TIME here. This club plays such an attractive brand of football.

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Pacific:  3178 average.  This is actually quite good for the smallest market in the league.  They drew even better for their big games (CL, playoff).  Eventually they are going to need to become a sort of west coast Halifax to get up to the 5000 mark.  There is a buzz, though, and the planned stadium upgrades may help, too.

100% agree there - nothing else to add really. I don't know if they still plan to have the stadium in Victoria renovated to host their marquee games, that would be a very smart idea which could help convince more people in the city to do the traveling to Langford for regular season games. I know scheduling (which would be a factor for most clubs) must be adjusted to maximize attendance by making it more convenient to more people. That's more of a "league issue" than clubs, this is why the criticism of everything being run from Toronto is a very valid point - not everywhere works like Toronto

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Valour:  Just over 3100 average.  While that number looks like a good start for Pacific, it doesn't look as good in Winnipeg and it doesn't feel like things are heading in a positive direction.  Winning more would help but they need to figure out something else because you can't count on winning every year.  Also, they have the market size where they should be able to baseline much higher.

They could do what Forge is doing (someone can correct me on this), but I feel that Forge does more to market the soccer club to the Tiger-Cats fans than what the Bombers are doing right now. Sure winning works but I just get that nagging feeling that something is missing in Winnipeg. You have ownership and coaches - you need an in-between to take care of that stuff like marketing, vision, identity etc...

They remind me of Montreal Impact when Joey Saputo was running everything as an owner and that "in-between" was missing between himself and the coach. Once he removed himself and appointed someone to run the club above the coach - CF Montreal started to do much better "off pitch". All I'm saying is that you need someone (competent with a track record) dedicated for that, not the coach or the Bombers owner, don't know if Valour has that

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

York:  1200 average.  This market has not bought into this team.  The owners may be willing to support the losses but I'd prefer a league where the teams can at least break even on their own.  Personally, I think the problem is trying to share a market with TFC and is therefore unfixable, but maybe there's something else and the owners can address it.

This is where I will strongly disagree. The market is fine. The club botched their launch, never marketed properly in North York, or York let alone Toronto. They seem to have a clearer vision/identity under McNab. For me, I can only judge what they will do once they move to Woodbine. Unless they go hard on marketing to draw North York (which I doubt they will), I'm expecting more of the same.

Claiming that Toronto can't handle 2 clubs is unbelievably untrue - I'll never buy into that especially how far both teams are from one another. Again, I live in North York, we'd be lucky if 5% knew York United existed (it's much less than that). Had they focus on North York (869k - 2016 census) and done it right, there's no reason why they couldn't draw more fans but hey... they were a York Team in North York called York 9...ouch

That being said, I'm bullish on Woodbine and I think York United are as well.

• up to 60k new residents in a brand new neighborhood
• GO Woodbine (Airport/Brampton/Guelph/Kitchener), Finch LRT (North York), Airport, Hwy 427/401
• Entertainment district + racetrack + casino that looks like it will be a major draw
• York United will be at the heart of it around when the World Cup will be holding games in Toronto

Lastly, the whole "breaking even" conversation - CF Montreal (just to name them) hasn't done that...ever. If Baldassara don't sweat the "F-U" money, who am I to tell him what to do with it? At least he hired someone who's responsible to make the club successful and that's what McNab is doing.

 

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

Edmonton:  Just under 1100 for the league-owned team.  Long term, the CPL needs a team in Edmonton.  Short term, they need to let this team die so that someone can come back and do it right.  Not ideal but there's no shame in acknowledging reality here.

This one's tough... If you let it die - I'd argue getting a new team back will be harder as it becomes a non-starter without a new stadium. It's easier for the league to take care of the obstacle preventing the club from being sold (debts or Fath writing it off - i don't know) OR granting a new expansion linked with a new venue and then fold FC Edmonton.

Either way - a HARD rebrand is needed and a brand new venue - Clarke simply won't do

If the league and it's owners are willing to sink millions like they are doing, might as well bite the bullet and get a temporary pop-up/modular stadium away from the city center or city itself to give themselves a chance and raise the attractiveness of the club until they can get a buywer

I agree that more of the same isn't a better solution either.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Ansem

[Ansem]

25 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I didn’t know the 6500 was a limit set by the city.  That’s interesting.  It does feel like there’s a few spots they could modify to squeeze in some more people.  Regardless, hopefully a permanent fixture gets the go ahead… I wonder what the latest is on that front, I haven’t heard anything for a while now.

Derek Martin had confirmed on Twitter that the process to get approval to build a permanent stadium on site is already underway

[Ansem]

8 minutes ago, shermanator said:

Don't forget that Cavalry own their stadium and get every penny of revenue that comes with a gameday. They make more money off 3500 attending their game than other clubs would.

You beat me to it - that is correct

[Kingston]

15 minutes ago, Ansem said:

This is where I will strongly disagree. The market is fine. The club botched their launch, never marketed properly in North York, or York let alone Toronto... 

Claiming that Toronto can't handle 2 clubs is unbelievably untrue - I'll never buy into that especially how far both teams are from one another.

I don't think the fundamental issue is two clubs in one city.  I think the issue is the lesser-than perception.  It's just something about the Toronto sports market that you're either the best that's available or you get ignored.  Even the long-established Argos suffer from this to a considerable extent.

I'd love to be wrong, and maybe a really well run CPL team could figure out how to do it, but I just don't see it.

 

[Ansem]

7 minutes ago, Kingston said:

I don't think the fundamental issue is two clubs in one city.  I think the issue is the lesser-than perception.  It's just something about the Toronto sports market that you're either the best that's available or you get ignored. Even the long-established Argos suffer from this to a considerable extent.

The Marlies drew very well pre-pandemic / Toronto Wolfpack did very well as well / Argonauts are low but still above 10k

My point is you seem to slide into extremes. No one expect a T.O club to do better than TFC but that doesn't prevent that same club from drawing a good amount of fans if management does its job. The club management of "York9" launch was a disaster - that's just fact when you compare to the likes of how the Wolfpack did in a crappy stadium with minimum exposure or like some CEBL club do elsewhere.

Club management matters, it isn't the oversimplification that "it's just a lesser product"

The Argos have a different set of issues like immigration, demographics and generational shift where millennials were less into CFL football than Gen X and Boomers, this is even more true with Gen Z. I don't know how the Argos solves this, Grey Cup draws so maybe somewhere more suburban makes more sense - I don't know. It's the opposite for soccer in that regards, there enough demand for both clubs to be successful, that's also just facts.

13 minutes ago, Kingston said:

I'd love to be wrong, and maybe a really well run CPL team could figure out how to do it, but I just don't see it.

York 9 was pre-pandemic...and a disaster

Then Mcnab comes along in the middle of a pandemic and post confinement. We'll see when they get to Woodbine.

[phil03]

35 minutes ago, Kingston said:

I don't think the fundamental issue is two clubs in one city.  I think the issue is the lesser-than perception.  It's just something about the Toronto sports market that you're either the best that's available or you get ignored.  Even the long-established Argos suffer from this to a considerable extent.

I'd love to be wrong, and maybe a really well run CPL team could figure out how to do it, but I just don't see it.

 

Its part of the issue but IMO its not the whole thing re York United's troubles.

On top of being in MLS TFC also had almost fifteen years to build ties with the communities and a fanbase before York came around. Hell, they won an MLS cup before the CPL even existed!

And if that wasn't enough next door you have another CPL team, THE CPL team in many ways, the dynasty of the other CPL, who also operate next door. 

Like, I have in the past argued that, outside of places like Hamilton and Victoria who have enough of a distinct local identity, the CPL would be better served by staying out of markets with an MLS team in general (and that We are Vancouver is a bad idea) but it can't be denied that York United really face a special combo of circumstances playing against it.

Edited October 31, 2022 by phil03

[jonovision]

3 hours ago, Aird25 said:

Assuming attendance is the only source of revenue for teams? Pacific probably made 50% of their player salaries from transfers this season

I'm not assuming that at all, but it is always going to a significant source and the most consistent source.

[Kent]

5 hours ago, Ansem said:

Winning and Champions League games will definitely help with attendances

First off, a reminder that this years CPL title doesn't grant them a Champions League spot next year.

It's also worth noting that, unfortunately, Forge's attendance is only 3600 despite being a consistently good team, making every CPL final and of course the 2020 (in 2022) Canadian Championship final. They have gotten whatever extra exposure you get from playing in CONCACAF League, as well as Champions League this year.

What happens to their attendance if next year they aren't a playoff team? People point to Valour's disappointing attendance, but it is only 500 less than Forge despite being much less successful and having much fewer high profile games.

[DoyleG]

5 hours ago, Ansem said:

This one's tough... If you let it die - I'd argue getting a new team back will be harder as it becomes a non-starter without a new stadium. It's easier for the league to take care of the obstacle preventing the club from being sold (debts or Fath writing it off - i don't know) OR granting a new expansion linked with a new venue and then fold FC Edmonton.

Either way - a HARD rebrand is needed and a brand new venue - Clarke simply won't do

If the league and it's owners are willing to sink millions like they are doing, might as well bite the bullet and get a temporary pop-up/modular stadium away from the city center or city itself to give themselves a chance and raise the attractiveness of the club until they can get a buyer

I agree that more of the same isn't a better solution either.

The problem is that FC Edmonton has been around long enough, even with all the drama, to have a footprint in the Edmonton sports scene. The hard rebrand or folding would effectively put the sport in the city back to before FCE even existed.

[Kingston]

16 hours ago, Ansem said:

The Marlies drew very well pre-pandemic / Toronto Wolfpack did very well as well / Argonauts are low but still above 10k

My point is you seem to slide into extremes. No one expect a T.O club to do better than TFC but that doesn't prevent that same club from drawing a good amount of fans if management does its job. The club management of "York9" launch was a disaster - that's just fact when you compare to the likes of how the Wolfpack did in a crappy stadium with minimum exposure or like some CEBL club do elsewhere.

Club management matters, it isn't the oversimplification that "it's just a lesser product"

The Argos have a different set of issues like immigration, demographics and generational shift where millennials were less into CFL football than Gen X and Boomers, this is even more true with Gen Z. I don't know how the Argos solves this, Grey Cup draws so maybe somewhere more suburban makes more sense - I don't know. It's the opposite for soccer in that regards, there enough demand for both clubs to be successful, that's also just facts.

York 9 was pre-pandemic...and a disaster

Then Mcnab comes along in the middle of a pandemic and post confinement. We'll see when they get to Woodbine.

I'm not saying club management is irrelevant.  Clearly it does play a role.  I just think the Toronto market is different than any other in Canada with the “less-than” perception problem.  And I think that problem sets a limit on how well a CPL team will do even with fantastic management.  I further worry that that limit will be below the threshold of viability.  Some reasoning:

Toronto metro is the largest market in the country.  Depending on how you define it, it’s somewhere between 6 and 7 million.

York doesn’t have the stature to draw from all of that, nor did they position themselves as a Toronto team.  Still, they have access to a larger market than any other CPL team.  Yet they can barely outdraw a league-owned zombie team in Edmonton?  To me, that says there’s more in play than just bad management.

For the Argos, yes, demographics are an issue.  Even if we cut out half the population, however, they’re still the second largest market in the league.  Any they can only draw 11 000 fans?  It’s because at least half the football fans in the market prefer to remote view the higher level NFL than support a local CFL team.

The Wolfpack did well.  Why?  Because they were the highest level of rugby that was going to be available.  How many people even realize that Toronto now has a pro rugby team playing in the lower level MLR?

Why did every pre-MLS soccer team in Toronto draw so much less than their counterparts in the smaller cities of Vancouver and Montreal?  Especially proportionate to market size?

The Marlies are an admitted outlier.  Maybe hockey is just that popular?  Although the OHL failed in Toronto twice and also failed in Brampton and Mississauga.

Again, management, stadium, and all the other things that matter elsewhere do also matter in Toronto.  In addition, however, the market is simply unfriendly to anything with a whiff of second-tier to it in a way that other Canadian markets generally aren’t.  I think that’s going to be a serious problem for even a very well run CPL team.  (Although hopefully I'm wrong.)

[SpursFlu]

It's so fantastic to see the league trend in a positive direction. It's just going to get better but at what rate?

I think to truly breakthrough the league needs credibility with the general public. The average Canadian or international soccer fan needs to see those direct lines. That means various things.. mainstream media coverage/respect, competition vs credible leagues MLS/LigaMX even the better Central American teams. And players from reputable soccer cultures or recognizable players. Not saying they should do that but just a few ways to break in to the consciousness of the average Canadian sports consumer. 

The mainstream media one is tough because it is what it is.