Canada and the 2024 Copa America

[EJsens1]

I’m just curious if they’ll announce the locations and dates for the games in the near future after the draw. Would we be locked in to #5 is the big question so people can start planning 

[Kent]

36 minutes ago, johnyb said:

That means the odds of securing Brazil or Argentina are greater. Pot 4 is drawn last, if another CONCACAF team is picked before us in Groups B or C then we can't be drawn into B or C. Still possible, but odds are with us going into A or D.

I'm trying to figure out if the odds are actually greater or not.

The only CONCACAF team (other than USA and Mexico) to be drawn before it gets to Pot 4 is Panama. They have a 50/50 chance of getting drawn into a group with USA/Mexico or Brazil/Argentina.

If Panama get drawn into USA or Mexico's group, we can't be drawn into that group. That would give us a 1 in 3 chance to get drawn in to the other of USA or Mexico's group, and a 2 in 3 chance of getting drawn in Brazil or Argentina's group.

If Panama get drawn into Brazil or Argentina's group, that means we have a 50/50 chance of being drawn into USA/Mexico or Brazil/Argentina.

Looks like you are correct. I'm not great at this kind of math, but I think that means we have a 41.7% chance of getting drawn into a USA/Mexico group (of course, if we actually qualify for this tournament). Someone PLEASE double check the math. I'm not sure if we would have to go through the permutations of the Pot 4 draw as well to get a more accurate number, or if that doesn't matter. 

[Watchmen]

1 hour ago, johnyb said:

That means the odds of securing Brazil or Argentina are greater. Pot 4 is drawn last, if another CONCACAF team is picked before us in Groups B or C then we can't be drawn into B or C. Still possible, but odds are with us going into A or D.

If Panama draws either Mexico or the US, we know that Bolivia has to be in that group as well, since every other Pot D team is from CONCACAF. So I guess at that point its a 2/3 chance of drawing either Brazil or Argentina.

[SpursFlu]

I'm expecting venues to be announced at the draw. One would think. My thought has always been World Cup venues + maybe Vegas

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

The draw will be broadcast on TSN 3.

I think the Copa America is not an exclusively CONCACAF property and therefore OneSoccer may not have the rights to this...

The #CanMNT may be back on TV this summer.

[red card]

41 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The draw will be broadcast on TSN 3.

I think the Copa America is not an exclusively CONCACAF property and therefore OneSoccer may not have the rights to this...

The #CanMNT may be back on TV this summer.

TSN carried the last Copa America. Just picked up Fox Sports feed. This time, TSN will likely put some of the matches on TSN+ only.

FS1 is showing the draw with a pre & post show. So, it's likely TSN is picking up the Fox feed again.

[Watchmen]

38 minutes ago, red card said:

TSN carried the last Copa America. Just picked up Fox Sports feed. This time, TSN will likely put some of the matches on TSN+ only.

FS1 is showing the draw with a pre & post show. So, it's likely TSN is picking up the Fox feed again.

How much they show on TSN property might depend on whether Canada is there or not.

[BearcatSA]

3 hours ago, red card said:

TSN carried the last Copa America. Just picked up Fox Sports feed. This time, TSN will likely put some of the matches on TSN+ only.

FS1 is showing the draw with a pre & post show. So, it's likely TSN is picking up the Fox feed again.

I'd be curious to know which matches  they would put on the extra pay subscription.  All of Messi and Argentina's group stage matches to jack up subscription numbers? 

[Kent]

26 minutes ago, BearcatSA said:

I'd be curious to know which matches  they would put on the extra pay subscription.  All of Messi and Argentina's group stage matches to jack up subscription numbers? 

I think the opposite. The less popular matches they will just put on streaming, instead of taking up air time on one of the main channels.

[BearcatSA]

19 minutes ago, Kent said:

I think the opposite. The less popular matches they will just put on streaming, instead of taking up air time on one of the main channels.

I would really hope that would be the case but I can't even guess what the grand plan is here.  Is TSN+ strictly the real life version of the spoof from Dodgeball of ESPN 8 ("The Ocho!") or are they going to find a way to drive subscriptions for it?  They have advertised subscription deals for TSN+ fairly regularly of late but you need to give consumers an in-demand product to hook them in.  I don't think Jamaica vs Bolivia in a Copa group stage match is going to cut it.

[Watchmen]

10 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

I'd be curious to know which matches  they would put on the extra pay subscription.  All of Messi and Argentina's group stage matches to jack up subscription numbers? 

 

10 hours ago, Kent said:

I think the opposite. The less popular matches they will just put on streaming, instead of taking up air time on one of the main channels.

My experience with the recent Rugby World Cup was that it was a mix.  Some smaller games were moved to TSN+, but also one of the most highly anticipated matches of the group stage (Ireland vs South Africa) was moved to it as well.

I think it's also complicated by the Euro going on at the same time, as they'll likely want to replay some of the bigger matches from that later in the evening.

[Rivaldo]

13 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

They have advertised subscription deals for TSN+ fairly regularly of late but you need to give consumers an in-demand product to hook them in.  I don't think Jamaica vs Bolivia in a Copa group stage match is going to cut it.

I've seen them run deals for the full TSN streaming service (that includes TSN+) but never a deal for TSN+ by itself. What was the deal?

I doubt putting games from a tournament that only happens every few years on TSN+ will drive many long term subscriptions. What I found most interesting about where they put the Rugby World Cup matches was that you could watch the entire tournament on TSN+, no need for the main service.

[BrennanFan]

23 hours ago, narduch said:

Peru are dead last in WCQ and are in Pot 2. Maybe they are beatable.

Peru at this point in time are in disarray and are definitely beatable.  They will be using the Copa to test new players and probably a new coach.  

USA, Peru, Paraguay, Canada is the best case scenario.  All are beatable.  Peru and Paraguay have serious difficulties scoring goals.

Argentina, Uruguay, Venezuela, Canada is the worst case scenario.  I would say Venezuela is usually better than us, certainly more organized, but we can beat them if we play to our best and make zero mistakes.

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

Peru at this point in time are in disarray and are definitely beatable.  They will be using the Copa to test new players and probably a new coach.  

USA, Peru, Paraguay, Canada is the best case scenario.  All are beatable.  Peru and Paraguay have serious difficulties scoring goals.

Argentina, Uruguay, Venezuela, Canada is the worst case scenario.  I would say Venezuela is usually better than us, certainly more organized, but we can beat them if we play to our best and make zero mistakes.

I find it very interesting that Peru and Canada are both going through a bad moment, yet Peru will treat Copa America as a testing ground for new players while we (Canada) are talking about Copa America in life and death terms. We fail to get there and it's a death blow to the program is the kind of rhetoric from Canadian fans and Media.

I guess we are putting this event on a pedastool because we have never competed in it. Meanwhile, Peru sounds like they'll treat it how we treated the most recent Gold Cup. Not saying we are wrong to approach it this way, it's just interesting to me, that's all. 

[red card]

3 hours ago, Rivaldo said:

I've seen them run deals for the full TSN streaming service (that includes TSN+) but never a deal for TSN+ by itself. What was the deal?

I doubt putting games from a tournament that only happens every few years on TSN+ will drive many long term subscriptions. What I found most interesting about where they put the Rugby World Cup matches was that you could watch the entire tournament on TSN+, no need for the main service.

For the last Euros, TSN said it produced the biggest bump in sign ups for their streaming service - over 300k. The Final was the most streamed TSN show. 

Most would have churned out after the Euros ended, some stayed for a year and a small chunk may still have it today.

They're in a balancing act. Fibe tv & TSN carriage fees still need to be mostly protected as it makes them decent cash flow. But TSN subscriber growth has been falling about 5% a year for the past 5 years. Like nearly all streaming platforms, TSN streaming is a cash drain but growth is expected or is happening. 

So, as seen with Rugby World Cup, their scheduling of some marquee group stage games only on TSN+ ticked off their linear tv customers. But with the rest of RWC largely on linear TSN, it wasn't to the point that would make people cut the cord.

Otherwise, exclusive TSN+ offerings are NFL Red Zone and niche properties where interested people are quite willingly to pay up to see it. ESPN is a bit further along as they have already started showing select games from the Big 4 sports only on ESPN+. 

 

 

[Shway]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

I find it very interesting that Peru and Canada are both going through a bad moment, yet Peru will treat Copa America as a testing ground for new players while we (Canada) are talking about Copa America in life and death terms. We fail to get there and it's a death blow to the program is the kind of rhetoric from Canadian fans and Media.

I guess we are putting this event on a pedastool because we have never competed in it. Meanwhile, Peru sounds like they'll treat it how we treated the most recent Gold Cup. Not saying we are wrong to approach it this way, it's just interesting to me, that's all. 

I think we should treat it the same way. The issue is we have is that we need to qualify for it first. 
The reason I think so is because I don't want us to be Qatar at the "hOmE" WC, and blooding in new talent at the hardest competition possible would be massive for their experience in 2 years.

Just doesn't make sense to me to bring guys like Borjan, Vitoria, and Hoilett if our goal is the round of 16 for the Copa. 
If we believe we can win it, then cool....but we all know that's not likely. 
 

[Watchmen]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

I find it very interesting that Peru and Canada are both going through a bad moment, yet Peru will treat Copa America as a testing ground for new players while we (Canada) are talking about Copa America in life and death terms. We fail to get there and it's a death blow to the program is the kind of rhetoric from Canadian fans and Media.

I guess we are putting this event on a pedastool because we have never competed in it. Meanwhile, Peru sounds like they'll treat it how we treated the most recent Gold Cup. Not saying we are wrong to approach it this way, it's just interesting to me, that's all. 

But I think it's about where each country is in it's cycle.  For Peru, they qualified for the 2018 WC, finished 2nd at the 2019 and 4th at the 2021 Copas, then just missed out on the 2022 WC (losing in the playoff).  That's a good run for that country, and I can see why they'd start the rebuild at a Copa.

For Canada, 2022 was supposed to be the start of the cycle, with a golden generation aiming to do well as hosts in 2026.  Part of that cycle involves doing well in the build up to the event, so missing out entirely on the Copa (the biggest event outside of the WC they can qualify for) is a disaster.  It's doubly damaging for Canada, because unlike the US or Mexico they don't have the finances to even schedule big name friendlies.

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Shway said:

I think we should treat it the same way. The issue is we have is that we need to qualify for it first. 
The reason I think so is because I don't want us to be Qatar at the "hOmE" WC, and blooding in new talent at the hardest competition possible would be massive for their experience in 2 years.

Just doesn't make sense to me to bring guys like Borjan, Vitoria, and Hoilett if our goal is the round of 16 for the Copa. 
If we believe we can win it, then cool....but we all know that's not likely. 
 

I agree with that. Hopefully we qualify so this is not moot. We have the expanded Gold Cup too in which we can blood new players, or give players light on experience some extra reps. From here on out we should be pushing the accelerator when it comes to freshening up the squad. That probably starts in earnest when we get a new coach, which is hopefully soon. 

[BearcatSA]

4 hours ago, Watchmen said:

But I think it's about where each country is in it's cycle.  For Peru, they qualified for the 2018 WC, finished 2nd at the 2019 and 4th at the 2021 Copas, then just missed out on the 2022 WC (losing in the playoff).  That's a good run for that country, and I can see why they'd start the rebuild at a Copa.

For Canada, 2022 was supposed to be the start of the cycle, with a golden generation aiming to do well as hosts in 2026.  Part of that cycle involves doing well in the build up to the event, so missing out entirely on the Copa (the biggest event outside of the WC they can qualify for) is a disaster.  It's doubly damaging for Canada, because unlike the US or Mexico they don't have the finances to even schedule big name friendlies.

Agreed.  

We failed to utilize three of four opprtunities for matches this fall prior to Jamaica and by the looks of things right now we're still stumbling around with finding opponents.  Not going to the Copa means that we lose at least three highly competitive (nonfriendly) matches, regardless of whether we go with incumbents or newer caps.  Blowing the one-off playoff would be a big fail. 

[themodelcitizen]

18 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

Agreed.  

We failed to utilize three of four opprtunities for matches this fall prior to Jamaica and by the looks of things right now we're still stumbling around with finding opponents.  Not going to the Copa means that we lose at least three highly competitive (nonfriendly) matches, regardless of whether we go with incumbents or newer caps.  Blowing the one-off playoff would be a big fail. 

Cheers to Big Vic for signing off on the Nations League reshuffle that lost us 4 competitive games with CONCACAF-subsidized travel 👍

[narduch]

Venues announced. 

 

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 10/24/2023 at 3:44 AM, xcalibre said:

There could be a Seattle-Vancouver group, or at least matchday. Hey, I can dream

No Seattle. No Canadian venues (as expected).

On 10/23/2023 at 12:55 PM, SpursFlu said:

I think one of the aspects of this tournament is to use this as a dry run for the World Cup. Much like the old Confederations Cup was before. So I'm pretty certain it will happen in World Cup approved venues only

You were somewhat correct but I am happy that there are 3 soccer-specific stadiums:

- Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City.

- Q2 Stadium in Austin

- Exploria Stadium in Orlando.

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

No Seattle. No Canadian venues (as expected).

You were somewhat correct but I am happy that there are 3 soccer-specific stadiums:

- Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City.

- Q2 Stadium in Austin

- Exploria Stadium in Orlando.

I was hoping for a quick jaunt down to Seattle. Oh well.

Yeah it's nice to see the SSS but I am somewhat surprised that St. Louis didn't make it over Children's Mercy Park. It's a fine venue, but it seems the general go with the newer venues.

St. Louis is close enough to KC, but maybe it was unavailable. 

Also interesting that nothing North of NYC was chosen. I assume that is in consideration of South American travelling fans?

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

26 minutes ago, narduch said:

Venues announced. 

It's even more than that. The detailed schedule has also been announced:

https://copaamerica.com/news/conmebol-anuncia-ciudades-sedes-estadios-y-calendario-de-la-conmebol-copa-america-2024/

Fans of Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and the USA can already book their travel!

Every group has at least one MLS stadium hosting a match in their group for the non-seeded team.

If we qualify that's the match I will likely try to attend. 

[SpursFlu]

Groups seem to be somewhat regionalized. That's good. Argentina East, US Midwest, Mexico SWest, Brazil West