CPL the Future .

[gigi riva]

Hey with a another seson nearing its End  Im just curious what my fellow Voyaguers want to see league look like down the road . to me these next four years are going to be critical . And please guys serious  responses only

[ted]

Well we already have the CPL General thread, CPL Stadiums, CPL New Teams Speculation, etc where we have been talking about this since 2018 but here goes.  

Oh, and since this forum will be around for a while but people won't pay attention to the date it was started, I'll be specific as I can.

2023: FC Edmonton survives, Vancouver FC plays and a CanPL team make the VCup final, average attendances increase by 10% over 2022.

2024: Saskatoon, Montreal, and Windsor teams play, CanPL team makes the fourth round of the Champions League, average attendance grows a further 10-15%.

2025: Kelowna and Quebec City come aboard, CanPL team plays in Champions League semi-final, average attendances increase again with sellouts in non-cfl venues for 40% of games played.

2026: World Cup fever grips nation and sellouts of the non-CFL venues happen regularly.

 

[Lurker]

I’d be happy with 12 teams and an average league attendance of 5000.  Perhaps that’s conservative but I’d take that future if it was offered today.

[jonovision]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

I’d be happy with 12 teams and an average league attendance of 5000.  Perhaps that’s conservative but I’d take that future if it was offered today.

I think that's fine. A lot of people have a distorted view of attendances because most North American major sports are so well attended. And the teams we pay attention to in Europe are the big ones that have good support. But 5000 would be the average attendance of the Portuguese league where Eustaquio plays if you took out the 3 teams you've heard of. What CPL and some other sports here (the CFL has a similar average attendance to Ligue 1) doesn't have is the other revenue streams keeping these low-attended European clubs afloat.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

I’d be happy with 12 teams and an average league attendance of 5000.  Perhaps that’s conservative...

Think that should read wildly optimistic.

[Ftduck]

I'd be incredibly happy with what I believe was the initial goal stated by the league from the start. 12 to 16 teams drawing 10 000. Something like the Portuguese or Belgium leagues. Now if it was only 5000 that would be fine too except the 3 CFL stadiums would forever feel empty. 

[shermanator]

The future of the CPL? Outliving those who've tried to bury the thought of a domestic league for a decade or more.

[jonovision]

1 hour ago, Ftduck said:

I'd be incredibly happy with what I believe was the initial goal stated by the league from the start. 12 to 16 teams drawing 10 000. Something like the Portuguese or Belgium leagues. Now if it was only 5000 that would be fine too except the 3 CFL stadiums would forever feel empty. 

Without building new stadiums, averaging 10k is impossible unless the 3 CFL cities do all of the heavy lifting. 

[Aird25]

I'm quite interested in the careers players have after CPL. MacNaughton, Waterman, Diaz etc are having success. I think Pepple, Abzi, Akio etc will likely have decent careers abroad, and I think there are a bunch of CPL players that could move on to bigger things. I'm curious to see what happens with Ottawa's spanish contingent next season. Being a launching point for player's careers is a good thing at the moment

I obviously hope the spectator culture improves in Canada. Most fans of the sport are focused on other leagues currently. Which is fine, but I hope people start supporting the domestic game more. It's the only way we grow

[Ftduck]

18 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Without building new stadiums, averaging 10k is impossible unless the 3 CFL cities do all of the heavy lifting. 

Agreed. Covered soccer specific stadiums are a must. Realistically that will take quite a bit of time. 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

16 hours ago, gigi riva said:

Hey with a another seson nearing its End  Im just curious what my fellow Voyaguers want to see league look like down the road . to me these next four years are going to be critical . And please guys serious  responses only

Some people can't separate what they want to see from what they expect to see. I'd want CanPL to outshine MLS four years from now and have most of the CMNT roster playing in it with TFC, CFM and the Whitecaps clamouring to join but I'd be completely delusional if I thought it was actually going to happen, so why even bring what you want into it? Life isn't like that. You have to play with the cards you are dealt with and make the best of it.

I was arguing on here years back that a Canadian version of PDL was what was doable and sustainable and should be pursued not because that's what I would prefer to see in an ideal world but because as the Easton report (yes I know he got the gig with CanPL eventually, so what?) and the KPMG report even further back pointed out the key factors needed to make a soccer version of the CFL work aren't in place. Having a league like that do a half-assed job then fold poisons the well for a decade or two afterwards as happened post-1992 after the CSL unravelled so it's better to do what is doable rather than chasing ideal scenarios.

Will CanPL succeed and hang in there long term? The jury is still out. If they scaled back their economic model away from being an air travel D1 and eased up on stadium requirements to facilitate growth in club numbers it probably would. If they want to stick with regular air travel, insist on 10,000 seat stadia as the goal and budget for 6000+ as a break even on crowds it's definitely no sure thing. The way they are barely visible to a mainstream audience courtesy of the webstreaming deal with Mediapro doesn't help and needs to be reassessed. Hence the push to get on Rogers cable.

I expect four years from now attendance and franchise numbers won't be massively different from now. The real crunch will be whether there's a post World Cup bump in interest because that's what the investors appear to be counting on. Halifax was a pleasant surprise on attendance. There need to be more of those. Langford wanting to provide a stadium at taxpayer expense was a pleasant surprise. There need to be more of those. Having some of the clubs like York 9 and FCE stumbling out the gate was all too predictable sadly. There can't be any more of those.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[narduch]

He has me blocked. And that`s too long to read. Did he say bus league?

[longlugan]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

He has me blocked. And that`s too long to read. Did he say bus league?

Pretty much.

[shermanator]

Ozzie buy a ticket or shut the fuck up already.

[jonovision]

In the end the bird man might be correct that the CPL model is too ambitious. Who's to know. But the bus league vision he proposes can be fired up from the ashes of the CPL if it flames out. What I do know is that such a model really only works in the denser parts of the country. It doesn't work for the prairies (3 current and 1 future CPL team) or the east coast (Canada's best supported team). 

Better to swing and miss then to never step to the plate, in my opinion.

As for the CSL flame out he references, the CPL has arguably already proven to be more sustainable than that league. Even if Edmonton calls it quits after this year, they lasted one more season (and through 2 pandemic years) than the shortest lived team from the 80s (and much longer still when you consider their previous incarnation).

Edited October 20, 2022 by jonovision

[narduch]

33 minutes ago, jonovision said:

In the end the bird man might be correct that the CPL model is too ambitious. Who's to know. But the bus league vision he proposes can be fired up from the ashes of the CPL if it flames out. What I do know is that such a model really only works in the denser parts of the country. It doesn't work for the prairies (3 current and 1 future CPL team) or the east coast (Canada's best supported team). 

Better to swing and miss then to never step to the plate, in my opinion.

As for the CSL flame out he references, the CPL has arguably already proven to be more sustainable than that league. Even if Edmonton calls it quits after this year, they lasted one more season (and through 2 pandemic years) than the shortest lived team from the 80s (and much longer still when you consider their previous incarnation).

The bus league he talks about basically already exists as the League 1s

[Ansem]

5 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Some people can't separate what they want to see from what they expect to see. I'd want CanPL to outshine MLS four years from now and have most of the CMNT roster playing in it with TFC, CFM and the Whitecaps clamouring to join but I'd be completely delusional if I thought it was actually going to happen, so why even bring what you want into it? Life isn't like that. You have to play with the cards you are dealt with and make the best of it.

I was arguing on here years back that a Canadian version of PDL was what was doable and sustainable and should be pursued not because that's what I would prefer to see in an ideal world but because as the Easton report (yes I know he got the gig with CanPL eventually, so what?) and the KPMG report even further back pointed out the key factors needed to make a soccer version of the CFL work aren't in place. Having a league like that do a half-assed job then fold poisons the well for a decade or two afterwards as happened post-1992 after the CSL unravelled so it's better to do what is doable rather than chasing ideal scenarios.

Will CanPL succeed and hang in there long term? The jury is still out. If they scaled back their economic model away from being an air travel D1 and eased up on stadium requirements to facilitate growth in club numbers it probably would. If they want to stick with regular air travel, insist on 10,000 seat stadia as the goal and budget for 6000+ as a break even on crowds it's definitely no sure thing. The way they are barely visible to a mainstream audience courtesy of the webstreaming deal with Mediapro doesn't help and needs to be reassessed. Hence the push to get on Rogers cable.

I expect four years from now attendance and franchise numbers won't be massively different from now. The real crunch will be whether there's a post World Cup bump in interest because that's what the investors appear to be counting on. Halifax was a pleasant surprise on attendance. There need to be more of those. Langford wanting to provide a stadium at taxpayer expense was a pleasant surprise. There need to be more of those. Having some of the clubs like York 9 and FCE stumbling out the gate was all too predictable sadly. There can't be any more of those.

[Kent]

I just want to see the league trending up. How slow or fast I don't have a clear idea. I don't expect, for example, attendance to rise every year, or for CPL teams to be regularly beating MLS or Liga MX teams in 5 years. As long as over the longer run it is trending up, in attendance, in cultural relevance, in level of play (which could show itself as results against teams from other leagues improving, or even just success of players leaving the league for other leagues) then I will be happy.

Regarding attendance jumps that Ted mentioned, it's not a perfect example, but for frame of reference, MLS has had year over year attendance growth 11 seasons, and year over year average attendance reduction 12 seasons. There has been one season where it shrunk by more than 10% (year 2) and one year when it grew by more than 10% (2015). Those numbers are just up to and including 2019. Despite that up and down nature, the league has trended up in attendance going from a start of 17k per game, going as low as just under 14k in the early years, and then up to 21-22k in recent years (again, up to 2019, I'm not digging deeper to find more recent numbers than are on the below wikipedia page).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer_attendance

 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

10 hours ago, jonovision said:

....Better to swing and miss then to never step to the plate, in my opinion...

How would having a Canadian version of PDL have been a case of never stepping up to the plate? If it went very well there could have been organic growth from there. Also worth noting that Joe Belan's would be D2 revolving around the Saskatchewan Soccer Summer Series was actually mainly being pushed in Western Canada rather than the Quebec-Windsor corridor where most of the population density is and that the Thunder Bay Chill have been able to sustain soccer as a spectator sport using the PDL approach in a corner of Ontario that is too remote to be catered to by L1O.

[BurndenAce]

I'd like to see the CPL stop focusing on cities that already have established teams and look towards smaller markets who are starved of professional sports. In Ontario for example, Windsor, London, Kitchener, Guelph, Brantford, St. Catharines, Barrie, Oshawa, Peterborough, Kingston and Sudbury all have the population to be able to support a team, and with very little else going on in the background, could be better markets due to the lack of competition.

 

I think there are actually more cities in Ontario that could feasibly support a team (If memory serves, the number was thirty-five when I last looked at the data), but the culture, money and interest in the league just aren't there yet.

Edited October 21, 2022 by BurndenAce

[Ansem]

7 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

How would having a Canadian version of PDL have been a case of never stepping up to the plate? If it went very well there could have been organic growth from there. Also worth noting that Joe Belan's would be D2 revolving around the Saskatchewan Soccer Summer Series was actually mainly being pushed in Western Canada rather than the Quebec-Windsor corridor where most of the population density is and that the Thunder Bay Chill have been able to sustain soccer as a spectator sport using the PDL approach in a corner of Ontario that is too remote to be catered to by L1O.

We have League 1 Ontario and their goal is to eventually have clubs in northern Ontario which would include Thunder Bay via "League 2 Ontario" --> Pro/Rel

We could just let League 1 Canada do their thing

 

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Ansem

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

8 hours ago, BurndenAce said:

...In Ontario for example, Windsor, London, Kitchener, Guelph, Brantford, St. Catharines, Barrie, Oshawa, Peterborough, Kingston and Sudbury...

Where OHL junior hockey works well as a significant spectator sport in other words. Hockey moves elite development players out of the Toronto area to where people will actually pay to watch them play and generate the revenue needed to pay for their room and board and future educational scholarships. L1O in a soccer context keeps the players in the GTA at suburban youth clubs that have a lot of voting clout inside the OSA through control of district associations and the games typically draw friends and family only for the most part.

[Aird25]

Victoria had a PDL team and it didn't draw as well as our CPL team. Reducing expenditures will result in smaller crowds, and increasing expenditures will result in bigger crowds. The trick is finding the right balance, and it might not be the same for every location or between every season. That's why I don't love the salary cap/minimum expenditure model that forces teams to spend a certain amount

[BurndenAce]

2 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Where OHL junior hockey works well as a significant spectator sport in other words. Hockey moves elite development players out of the Toronto area to where people will actually pay to watch them play and generate the revenue needed to pay for their room and board and future educational scholarships. L1O in a soccer context keeps the players in the GTA at suburban youth clubs that have a lot of voting clout inside the OSA through control of district associations and the games typically draw friends and family only for the most part.

Well the reasons that junior hockey works in those markets are a) the hockey culture in this country, b) the population base is there to support the team and c) there's nothing else going on. I'm sure you could probably find places in Ontario where there aren't OHL teams, but could still support a small football club if the stars align (Newmarket-Aurora, Welland and Cornwall immediately spring to mind).

 

Leaving aside the current stupidity of having private academies operate teams in L10.

Edited October 21, 2022 by BurndenAce

[phil03]

A lot of people have discussed either what they would like to see or what they think would happen so I'll take something of a mid-road approach. Here is what I think the CPL SHOULD do to maximise its growth and ods to be around in the long run:

I. Get the French situation shorted. Like, finding translators for your website and changing the logo isn't complicated and not doing so is a turn off for a quarter of your market who sees it as a basic form of respect for them. Having an ''its ok to not be big on bilingualism because they all speak English aniway'' attitude is to be avoided like covid if you want to build french-canadian support for the league.

II. Look at what has worked and redo it. A bit part of Halifax's success is the lack of competition, both sports and (to a significantly lesser degree but still) entertainment-wise more broadly, during the summer. Another aspect is that having a fully-fledged professional team is a big deal in a market like Halifax. The CPL should look at markets who repeat those conditions.

III. Look at what isn't working super well and don't redo it. York United shouldn't be recreated elsewhere (yes, I am talking to you, ''We are Vancouver!'').

IV. There is no silver bullet. Admission to the MLS was a big moment for all three Canadian teams, sure, but most of the growth of these teams was done on a far more low-key levels, season after season, through community outreach, gaining supporters and media clout little by little as well as building themselves as Soccer organization on and off the pitch. I want both the league and the fanbase to embrace the work to be done.

V. Related to the previous point and probably the one thing that I'd that would be the most controversial here: nobody involved in Canadian soccer want the CPL to fail and everyone has good will for it. The most you have is skepticism toward its viability by people who wish to be wrong and fans of MLS fans who want their club to treated fairly as well as respected, for their past and present contribution to Canadian soccer to be taken into account and for the exceptional circumstances and challenges that were created by existing before their country had a Soccer pyramid and how it has impacted their business and sporting models on and off the pitch to be taken into account. I hope that the CPL will capitalize on the very real goodwill it has and that it won't be squandered by being hostile to people and organisations who wish its success.

VI. I want a youth system and an Academy system in all CPL clubs. It is both needed to fulfill its stated reason for existing (developing Canadian talents and eventually building a deeper reservoir for the CANMNT) and to continue to build up the playing level of the league beyond a certain level.

VII. Continue to work on the talent pipeline. I think American MLS teams, in particular, are an untapped market in the short run due to the homegrown clause allowing veterans of academies from Canadian MLS clubs to be considered domestic players.

VIII. Look at easy ways to cut costs and don't let pride get in the way. If a university stadium is a good and convenient place to play then go for it! If conferences might be a good way to cut costs then go for it!

IX. Do get something akin to designated players, as IMO it is key to have some more long term players in teams, which in turn is key to build fanbases.

X. Get a team in Quebec and more geographic spread overall. 

XI. Try to build more partnerships like Athletico Ottawa, if only because that mean an ownership who has at least some tolerances for loosing cash since they are also trying to get something else out of their team. Beside, its good for the league's profile...

XII. Make a serious, meaningful, effort to wean yourself from the CSB deal's money as much as possible and send the cash saved to stuff related to the national programs. The game in Canada will live or die by the national teams, essentially.

XIII. Accept any traditional tv deals, even if you don't get much money for it. Eyeballs are the most important thing at this stage.

Edited October 21, 2022 by phil03