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Match Thread : CONCACAF League : Forge FC v Antigua GFC, August 1st 2019

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Smyrniotis made some good half time adjustments but Forge looked to be the fitter team on the night. I noticed in the first half that the game seemed to have a very high tempo, and Antigua couldn't sustain that for the second 45 minutes.

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24 minutes ago, narduch said:

4644 announced attendance. Not bad for a 6pm start

Honestly, that's a terrific crowd given the circumstances. And it looked legit on screen.

What a way to finish the match off. Now the dreaded away leg in Central America.

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Loving the highlights for the stadium sound :). It would have been nice to have that live.

Fantastic result for Forge in a "won the first game ever in continental competition" sort of way. However in a "We need to advance to be successful" kind of way it's probably a toss up at this point.

The above was based on my gut, here are some numbers that show it's as close to 50% - 50% as you can get from the last 19 times it happened in the UEFA Champions League. https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/champions-league-match-predictions/D3E2R38B3CRB5ZZX

"The most interesting example here is a 2-1 home win in the first leg, as it’s almost an even split of who goes on to qualify. If we exclude penalty shoot-outs, then there have been nine qualifications for each (Bayern Munich beat Real Madrid in the 2012 semi-finals on penalties, after both sides won 2-1 at home)."

I will take that.

Edited by Kent

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Just got home from the match, what a fabulous night of football in The Hammer, the crowd was way bigger than most of us were expecting and everyone was right into it! We had our first issues with away supporters as they taunted the Battalion section after their goal which didn't go over too well, of course the cops and security were all over the local fans and left the away fans who caused the problem alone! As for the match, at the half it looked as if we were just up against a slightly better side who took their one chance but that early second half goal changed everything! The same problems seemed to be plaguing Forge, lots of  posession with no end product and after the 4th official posted a measly 3 minutes of stoppage time and we were stuck in our own half it was looking like a real challenge in the away leg (which it might be) then we score a winner, that's the craziest the Battallion Section has been, I can't wait to give it a go in Central America, Forge may have a decent chance!   

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What a match and experience.  I think Forge should have won by more but I still believe they can pull it out away.  It will be tough but getting the first goal will change everything.  

Forge clearly a class above talent wise, good showing for the league. 

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Great night of footy tonight. Decent crowd, and good result. Really enjoyed the match, but hard not to when you hit an injury time winner! You can see Forge is still a work in progress in some of the finer movements and team shape sometimes (particularly defensively), but it is fun to watch. Here’s hoping we can win the tie down in Antigua, and get another champions league qualifier at home. 

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3 minutes ago, Lofty said:

I thought that in the UEFA Champions League the knockout phase was preceded by a group phase and the higher seeded team (the one with more points from the group matches) was always given the advantage of playing the 2nd leg at home. In which case your "stat" needs to be restated as follows: when the favoured team has lost the 1st leg 2-1, they have ended up winning the tie about 50% of the time. (19 observations is also a tiny sample size.)

I don't know whether Antigua were seeded higher than Forge but in any case that seeding would be purely subjective. My recollection is that on average, football matches end as a home win 43% of the time, away win 27%, draw 30%. But included in that 43% are results such as 3-2, 4-3, 5-4, which all result in a FORGE win. And 2-1, which is a very common score and can reasonably be assumed to result in a Forge win 50% of the time. On the other side is the difficulty of this away match.

But I definitely make Forge favourites now: draw or win and they are through. Lose 3-2 and they are through. Lose 2-1 and win a shoot out and they are through. Lots more ways for them to advance than Antigua, who must win 1-0 or by 2 clear goals.

Yes, the thing about the higher seeded team hosting the 2nd leg should have been noted. Good point. And yeah, 19 games is a small sample size. I found something years back that had something like 20 or so years of results, but I didn't find anything like that this time around.

But I just searched a bit more and have another source. http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/ec-qual.html

This one says 54% chance of moving on after starting with a 2-1 home win but again it is based on 24 occurrences. It does mention that the home team in the first leg wins 44% of the time. So either it's a disadvantage to play at home first, or that is the seeding at work, or a combination of the 2 things. If it is because of the seeding then that 54% should be higher in this case where the seeding was based on 0 data. (To answer your question, yes, GUA2 was seeded ahead of CAN2 since we have no prior results to give us any CONCACAF Club Index).

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38 minutes ago, Lofty said:

1. Definitely not in England then! Away fans there are automatically criminals and treated accordingly by the scum.

2. When Forge banged in the winner, I hope you gave it back to those trouble caking munts in spades!

We did, most of the section was pissed at what had happened!

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UEFA only seeds the first knockout round (R16) for the Champions League. The rest of the knockout stages are done by random draw.

That being said, 3 of last season's 4 semi-finalists, and both finalists, were from the lower seeds in the R16. In the past few years, the R16 seeding is becoming less and less relevant to the ultimate outcomes in those ties.

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What a game last night! Really enjoyed it. Wasn't sure what to expect from Antigua, but they were fast and very dangerous. Their first goal was well-taken and would have been very difficult to stop. Was surprised (pleasantly) at the size of the crowd. It was fun to have a fair number of away fans there too. The BSB were doing themselves proud: singing and waving flags throughout the game. Unfortunately, their one cheer of "the referee's a wanker" got way too much practice. There's no way I could do a decent job of refereeing, but then again I don't put on the official's uniform. 

Although it would mean the end of the CPL season, I'm starting to look forward to winter. Hopefully, less road construction. Ridiculous traffic jams on the Skyway and then again on the 400.

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2 hours ago, narduch said:

Any word if TSN is going to show the return leg live? 

 

They have a match listed next Thursday between TBD vs TBD at 657pm on their TSN Go/Direct schedule. This was the case up also until Tuesday for yesterday's match.

TSN has the rights, so they should show given there is a Canadian team involved.

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-direct-broadcast-schedule-1.1154152

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On 8/1/2019 at 6:25 PM, gator said:

Just got home from the match, what a fabulous night of football in The Hammer, the crowd was way bigger than most of us were expecting and everyone was right into it! We had our first issues with away supporters as they taunted the Battalion section after their goal which didn't go over too well, of course the cops and security were all over the local fans and left the away fans who caused the problem alone! 

Sounds like the old days of WCQ games at Swangard. At least we had Alberta Beef/Current Champ to intervene!

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31 minutes ago, Stanley said:

Sounds like the old days of WCQ games at Swangard. At least we had Alberta Beef/Current Champ to intervene!

Were you there too? OT, but I think that might have been the closest I have been to arrested, or at least removed from the venue.

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2 hours ago, nolando said:

Were you there too? OT, but I think that might have been the closest I have been to arrested, or at least removed from the venue.

I was there...I took your photo.

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