The Road to Qatar.

[SpursFlu]

I agree Costa Rica is looking long in the tooth but they have their own wonderkid. Just turned 18 MF Manfred Ugalde of Saprissa is on the radar of all the big European clubs

Edited June 9, 2020 by SpursFlu

[Kent]

6 hours ago, N1ckbr0wn said:

Group 3

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If that group 3 happened, those teams could finish in any order and I wouldn’t be surprised. Costa Rica finishing 4th and maybe Haiti winning the group would be the only things even bordering on a surprise.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Kent

[BrennanFan]

29 minutes ago, Kent said:

If that group 3 happened, those teams could finish in any order and I wouldn’t be surprised. Costa Rica finishing 4th and maybe Haiti winning the group would be the only things even bordering on a surprise.

Yup. And as they'd all be close games, it's unlikely the 2nd place team will have a goal differential sufficient to be the best 2nd place team. 

The group with Antigua will very likely have the best 2nd place team. 

Edited June 10, 2020 by BrennanFan

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, BrennanFan said:

Yup. And as they'd all be close games, it's unlikely the 2nd place team will have a goal differential sufficient to be the best 2nd place team. 

The group with Antigua will very likely have the best 2nd place team. 

Yeah for sure. Hard to say what is best...

Do you want the CR group, where you probably have a 25% chance at 1st, a 25% chance of 2nd, and like a 3% chance of being the best 2nd place team? 

Or do you take the MX group, where you have a 5% chance of 1st, a 50% chance of 2nd, and a 97% chance of being the best 2nd place team?

The Mx group feels safer, but the "guaranteed" win over Antigua could doom us because Herdman has a tendency to over-plan and be overconfident. I think we'd be better off in the CR group, where it's all or nothing. Honestly that would be more fun for the fans too!

Edited June 10, 2020 by Obinna

[PiedPilko]

31 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Yeah for sure. Hard to say what is best...

Do you want the CR group, where you probably have a 25% chance at 1st, a 25% chance of 2nd, and like a 3% chance of being the best 2nd place team? 

Or do you take the MX group, where you have a 5% chance of 1st, a 50% chance of 2nd, and a 97% chance of being the best 2nd place team?

The Mx group feels safer, but the "guaranteed" win over Antigua could doom us because Herdman has a tendency to over-plan and be overconfident. I think we'd be better off in the CR group, where it's all or nothing. Honestly that would be more fun for the fans too!

Man, I really feel like we're selling ourselves short here. 25% chance in that first group seems really pessimistic. I guess it's been ingrained and all that, but I think we're firmly better than Haiti. The bad thing happened, and it was pretty bad, but honestly, compare these 2 squads. I don't think anyone could say that Haiti would win most times, or even 3 times out of 10, with a straight face.

 

Would be cool if we talked more about what makes our squad, rather than speculation and comparison without backing any of it up. Our striking, at least in theory, should be lethal. Any given game is essentially us betting that Davies (hopefully), David, Cavi and Hoilett are gonna score more than you can. When you look at Jamaica and Costa Rica, I just don't see this same talent at one place on the field, that gives you a winning bet in most situations

 

Maybe they're more balanced, but having this stack up front is more valuable than anything they have, in my opinion. Our odds are definitely below 50%, because the difference isn't that much, but I think it's better than random, and probably better than the other three. 

[BrennanFan]

Went back to see who the best 2nd place team has been in the semi final round/4 team group stage of concacaf qualifying from recent cycles. 

2018 Trinidad 11 points 

2014 Panama 11 points

2010 Trinidad 11 points

2006 Trinidad 12 points

2002 Mexico 13 points

1998 Mexico 12 points

So, at the very least, we are going to need 3 home wins and 2 away draws if we want to advance as the 2nd place team. There is no group we could be drawn into that would make this an easy or likely task. 

I'll say it again: qualifying for this world cup will be more difficult than it has ever been. 

A team is only as strong as its weakest link and our backline is the weakest it has ever been since probably the 70s.  Also our coach is dreadfully inexperienced when it comes qualifying processes and playing away games in Concacaf. 

[TGAA_Star]

17 hours ago, N1ckbr0wn said:

this exact mock has probably already been posted but here’s mine:

Pot 1

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POT 2

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POT 3

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POT 4

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Group 1

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Group 2

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Group 3

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But assessing this mock again

Group 1 or should I say Group A with Mexico,  El Salvador, Panama and Antigua & Barbuda on paper is probably the easiest to qualify from. Mexico no doubt would finish 1st in that group and qualify for Qatar in a direct spot. 2nd place definitely would be between Honduras and Panama. However, I would go with Panama to get 2nd place which would basically guarantee them a spot in the Intercontinental playoff because with Antigua in that group, Panama would be scoring a lot of goals. El Salvador really would have no chance at 2nd.

 

Group 2 well Group B with USA, Honduras, Curacao and Trinidad and Tobago is a pretty favorable group draw for USA. No doubt they would finish 1st in this group but then again Honduras could also finish 1st in this group. However, after what happened last WCQ cycle USA will qualify directly. Honduras finished 2nd. Curacao will finish 3rd. But Trinidad and Tobago will miss out again especially if they are put into this group. It is a shame too. 

 

Group 3 well Group C with Costa Rica, Canada, Jamaica and Haiti is the Group of Death by far. Because realistically any of these 4 teams could wind up in 1st and qualify directly to Qatar. But who do I think it could be? I will instead go for a shocker and say Jamaica win this group if it ends up happening and they qualify directly in 1st. 2nd place for me, I would go with Canada.

 

But if 2nd place is based on goal difference, the 2nd placed teams well for me would be Panama, Honduras and Canada. Best 2nd place team would be Panama who would go on to the playoff.

[Kent]

9 hours ago, Obinna said:

The Mx group feels safer, but the "guaranteed" win over Antigua could doom us because Herdman has a tendency to over-plan and be overconfident.

US Virgin Islands, 8-0 win
Dominica, 5-0 win
Saint Kitts and Nevis, 1-0 win
French Guiana, 4-1 win
Martinique, 4-0 win
Cuba, 7-0 win
Mexico, 3-1 loss
Haiti, 3-2 loss
Cuba, 6-0 win
Cuba, 1-0 win (Henry red card midway through the game)
Barbados, 4-1 win
Barbados, 4-1 win

I'm not sure where you get this impression that we are susceptible against a minnow under Herdman. The only game that I think you could consider him having over-planned would be the Mexico game, but that hardly fits the description that a game against Antigua would meet. Against the minnows, 8 wins (if Martinique and French Guiana count as a minnows) by 3 or more goals, and 2 wins by 1 goal. That is a pretty good record, and an outstanding one for a Canada coach.

[Obinna]

10 hours ago, PiedPilko said:

Man, I really feel like we're selling ourselves short here. 25% chance in that first group seems really pessimistic. I guess it's been ingrained and all that, but I think we're firmly better than Haiti. The bad thing happened, and it was pretty bad, but honestly, compare these 2 squads. I don't think anyone could say that Haiti would win most times, or even 3 times out of 10, with a straight face.

 

Would be cool if we talked more about what makes our squad, rather than speculation and comparison without backing any of it up. Our striking, at least in theory, should be lethal. Any given game is essentially us betting that Davies (hopefully), David, Cavi and Hoilett are gonna score more than you can. When you look at Jamaica and Costa Rica, I just don't see this same talent at one place on the field, that gives you a winning bet in most situations

 

Maybe they're more balanced, but having this stack up front is more valuable than anything they have, in my opinion. Our odds are definitely below 50%, because the difference isn't that much, but I think it's better than random, and probably better than the other three. 

We are better on paper for sure, and yes they beat us in the GC quarters, but they also beat CR in the GC group stage and finished 1st. Maybe they got lucky twice, or perhaps they are better than we give credit for? They also finished ahead of us in Nations League qualifying for what it's worth.

This is not to say I am afraid of them, but I am tempering my expectations for sure. In Nations League they drew away to CR and again at a neutral site (they couldn't play at home). We would expect CR to challenge us for 1st in that group, but if Haiti hasn't lost to CR in 3 games, and beat us last time we played them, what does that say about the parity? And I haven't even gotten to Jamaica yet.....

[Obinna]

Speaking about balance:

I was lurking on the big soccer forum the other day. Our team was being discussed and someone (I think an American) made a good point. He said that Canadian fans look at their starting XI and see high quality players, but we look at your line up and see holes. The point was that you need depth and balance and we don't have it. I hate to say it but I agree.

We have a world class winger, a potential world class forward, a couple of solid attackers and midfielders, and glaring holes on the back line.

The consensus in the thread was that we arguably have the 3rd best team in the region on paper, but we lack balance and haven't won when it counts (yet).

Others need to see to believe, but we are fans of our team so we believe before we see. This is understandable but sometimes we must remind ourselves of our bias. 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Obinna

[SpursFlu]

3 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Speaking about balance:

I was lurking on the big soccer forum the other day. Our team was being discussed and someone (I think an American) made a good point. He said that Canadian fans look at their starting XI and see high quality players, but we look at your line up and see holes. The point was that you need depth and we don't have it. I hate to say it but I agree.

We have a world class winger, a potential world class forward, a couple of solid attackers and midfielders, and glaring holes on the back line.

I think we have holes on defense but everywhere else we're very deep. We could have people on the bench like MAK, Piette, Larin, Hoilett, Osorio, Millar. Right now my front 6 looks like. Hutchinson, Estaquao, Arfield, Davies, David, Cavallini 

Sure our back line needs work but I would say we're deeper in midfield and forward than the US and dare I say it, even Mexico 

[Obinna]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

US Virgin Islands, 8-0 win
Dominica, 5-0 win
Saint Kitts and Nevis, 1-0 win
French Guiana, 4-1 win
Martinique, 4-0 win
Cuba, 7-0 win
Mexico, 3-1 loss
Haiti, 3-2 loss
Cuba, 6-0 win
Cuba, 1-0 win (Henry red card midway through the game)
Barbados, 4-1 win
Barbados, 4-1 win

I'm not sure where you get this impression that we are susceptible against a minnow under Herdman. The only game that I think you could consider him having over-planned would be the Mexico game, but that hardly fits the description that a game against Antigua would meet. Against the minnows, 8 wins (if Martinique and French Guiana count as a minnows) by 3 or more goals, and 2 wins by 1 goal. That is a pretty good record, and an outstanding one for a Canada coach.

I am not concerned about being susceptible against Antigua specifically, my concern is such a group encourages Herdman to overthink things. A less predicable group would kind of protect Herdman from himself, know what I mean?

Edited June 10, 2020 by Obinna

[Obinna]

8 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I think we have holes on defense but everywhere else we're very deep. We could have people on the bench like MAK, Piette, Larin, Hoilett, Osorio, Millar. Right now my front 6 looks like. Hutchinson, Estaquao, Arfield, Davies, David, Cavallini 

Sure our back line needs work but I would say we're deeper in midfield and forward than the US and dare I say it, even Mexico 

Yes but our depth is not spread out. I think Herman realized this from the get-go, which is why he played people out of position. Remember his insistence with getting all the best players on the field? I think he's realized now that is also not ideal. 

By the way, I definitely disagree we are deeper than Mexico at any position. We do have better forwards than the USA though. Midfield is debatable.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Obinna

[SpursFlu]

Coming off the bench in midfield we have MAK, Piette & Osorio.. not bad

[TGAA_Star]

16 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Yes but our depth is not spread out. I think Herman realized this from the get-go, which is why he played people out of position. Remember his insistence with getting all the best players on the field? I think he's realized now that is also not ideal. 

By the way, I definitely disagree we are deeper than Mexico at any position. We do have better forwards than the USA though. Midfield is debatable.

Whoever said we are deeper than Mexico in any position is not only untrue but it is unrealistic. But as far as being deeper in talent than USA at any position at this point is a fair statement all be it debatable especially in most areas.

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, SpursFlu said:

Coming off the bench in midfield we have MAK, Piette & Osorio.. not bad

For sure. That is a stacked bench by our standards. All of those players would be part of the Mexican or US pool. Not sure where on the depth chart they'd be though. I think all 3 of them would be higher on the US depth chart than the Mexican depth chart. 

Missing out on Tomori was really too bad. I think him and Cornelius would have been a fine pairing. I think Cornelius has been consistent enough for Canada that he is the least of our concerns. I don't think it matters if we play Henry, Vitoria, James, Didic, Jakovic, Edgar or whoever in the RCB spot, they each have issues that make them unreliable. I think the best solution is to play Hutchinson there.   

[TGAA_Star]

41 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Speaking about balance:

I was lurking on the big soccer forum the other day. Our team was being discussed and someone (I think an American) made a good point. He said that Canadian fans look at their starting XI and see high quality players, but we look at your line up and see holes. The point was that you need depth and balance and we don't have it. I hate to say it but I agree.

We have a world class winger, a potential world class forward, a couple of solid attackers and midfielders, and glaring holes on the back line.

The consensus in the thread was that we arguably have the 3rd best team in the region on paper, but we lack balance and haven't won when it counts (yet).

Others need to see to believe, but we are fans of our team so we believe before we see. This is understandable but sometimes we must remind ourselves of our bias. 

I agree too Canadian fans are too biased because the fact is, is that there is no balance within the CanMNT. Suspect at best in most areas. Defense is the overall glaring concern among other things. Yes Canada hasn't won anything especially with this current crop of players but at the same time Canada is as deep as it has been in recent memory when it comes to overall talent. The overall problem is execution or not having that hunger.

[Obinna]

If Hutchinson can stay healthy and committed and not retire until 2022 AND also be willing to play RCB for us I would feel a lot better about our chances, both in qualifying and the World Cup (if we get there).

I know that would be a big ask and I wouldn't blame him for hanging them up, because he has been a fantastic servant to the program and truly one of the greats to ever wear the Canadian shirt. 

He is 37 right now, but he still plays regularly at Besiktas. I think he posted 4 goals in 25 games from defensive midfield in the Super Lig this season. The break we have had is probably good for any player like him who wishes to extend their career. He would be 39 in 2022. 

Is it crazy for me to hang my hopes on Hutchinson here?  

[TGAA_Star]

7 minutes ago, Obinna said:

If Hutchinson can stay healthy and committed and not retire until 2022 AND also be willing to play RCB for us I would feel a lot better about our chances, both in qualifying and the World Cup (if we get there).

I know that would be a big ask and I wouldn't blame him for hanging them up, because he has been a fantastic servant to the program and truly one of the greats to ever wear the Canadian shirt. 

He is 37 right now, but he still plays regularly at Besiktas. I think he posted 4 goals in 25 games from defensive midfield in the Super Lig this season. The break we have had is probably good for any player like him who wishes to extend their career. He would be 39 in 2022. 

Is it crazy for me to hang my hopes on Hutchinson here?  

Yes but a 39 year old playing the right center back position...no way. He would be better suited at his natural position but even if he were to make 2022 by making the 23 man squad, he would probably be coming off the bench anyway.

[Mikmacdo]

27 minutes ago, Obinna said:

For sure. That is a stacked bench by our standards. All of those players would be part of the Mexican or US pool. Not sure where on the depth chart they'd be though. I think all 3 of them would be higher on the US depth chart than the Mexican depth chart. 

Missing out on Tomori was really too bad. I think him and Cornelius would have been a fine pairing. I think Cornelius has been consistent enough for Canada that he is the least of our concerns. I don't think it matters if we play Henry, Vitoria, James, Didic, Jakovic, Edgar or whoever in the RCB spot, they each have issues that make them unreliable. I think the best solution is to play Hutchinson there.   

I'm not that high on Cornelius right now. I don't see him as any better than Miller. Henry just won mvp of the month for his team. He's the number 1 CB on the team right now. I hope James can get pt, I'd rate him second. Don't sleep on waterman, he looked good for Montreal and would be a good fit if Herdman goes to 3 at the back. 

[Obinna]

4 minutes ago, Mikmacdo said:

I'm not that high on Cornelius right now. I don't see him as any better than Miller. Henry just won mvp of the month for his team. He's the number 1 CB on the team right now. I hope James can get pt, I'd rate him second. Don't sleep on waterman, he looked good for Montreal and would be a good fit if Herdman goes to 3 at the back. 

Thanks, I did forget about Waterman and I feel he has potential for sure. He is still very green though, so I think it will depend on how quickly he can grow. The talent and attributes seem to be there though.

I can see your hesitation about Cornelius because with Vancouver he hasn't been as consistent, but that hasn't been the case for Canada, which is why I am high on him. Perhaps it is more accurate to say I am not as low on him as the other options.

Miller hasn't done anything wrong either, but he's played 5 games for Canada with less than half coming at LCB. Cornelius has played all of his 13 games at LCB (aside from when he slid to the right halfway through a game to accommodate Miller). I feel more comfortable with Cornelius given his body of work.

He made team of the 2019 Gold Cup group stage.

Good to hear Henry is excelling in South Korea. That is great for him and his club and potentially for us. He still needs to prove he can be reliable for Canada on a consistent basis.

[TGAA_Star]

12 minutes ago, Mikmacdo said:

I'm not that high on Cornelius right now. I don't see him as any better than Miller. Henry just won mvp of the month for his team. He's the number 1 CB on the team right now. I hope James can get pt, I'd rate him second. Don't sleep on waterman, he looked good for Montreal and would be a good fit if Herdman goes to 3 at the back. 

Even with 4 at the back, Waterman would still be a good option especially if you have Henry there.

[Ivan]

50 minutes ago, Obinna said:

 

Is it crazy for me to hang my hopes on Hutchinson here?  

As I stated in another thread recently, currently, I think Hutch and Henry are our best CB pairing for 2022 qualifying.  

[Bison44]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Speaking about balance:

I was lurking on the big soccer forum the other day. Our team was being discussed and someone (I think an American) made a good point. He said that Canadian fans look at their starting XI and see high quality players, but we look at your line up and see holes. The point was that you need depth and balance and we don't have it. I hate to say it but I agree.

We have a world class winger, a potential world class forward, a couple of solid attackers and midfielders, and glaring holes on the back line.

The consensus in the thread was that we arguably have the 3rd best team in the region on paper, but we lack balance and haven't won when it counts (yet).

Others need to see to believe, but we are fans of our team so we believe before we see. This is understandable but sometimes we must remind ourselves of our bias. 

I think we are hopeful that our players (especially our favorites) can be better.  And the majority of us on here see the holes (RB/CB) and we talk about it endlessly.  Our best 11 might be 3rd but we cant even begin to compare with USA/Mexico depth.  We lose Cav, David, Davies Borjan etc..there is no replacement.  Our 3 or 4th CBs dont even play at thier clubs and we are constantly trying to shoe horn someone into playing RB from another position.  I'm glad that we have young star attacking players for once, and that gives us newfound hope, but I dont think many of us have "delusions of grandeur", as we have been dissapointed by the performances on the field for so long.  

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

I think we are hopeful that our players (especially our favorites) can be better.  And the majority of us on here see the holes (RB/CB) and we talk about it endlessly.  Our best 11 might be 3rd but we cant even begin to compare with USA/Mexico depth.  We lose Cav, David, Davies Borjan etc..there is no replacement.  Our 3 or 4th CBs dont even play at thier clubs and we are constantly trying to shoe horn someone into playing RB from another position.  I'm glad that we have young star attacking players for once, and that gives us newfound hope, but I dont think many of us have "delusions of grandeur", as we have been dissapointed by the performances on the field for so long.  

That's probably more true for the old heads and less true for the newer fans.