Ottawa CPL Club

[masster]

1 hour ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

I'd guess it's a bit of a moving target because the deposits are being viewed as a proxy for the season ticket base. If you need paid attendance of 5-6k to break even with a $1.5-2m salary budget, I can see why Pacific FC are getting nervous with only 200 deposits. They probably thought they'd be in the Fraser Valley with numbers close to Hamilton.

I doubt the Fraser Valley would produce Forge type deposit numbers.

[Ansem]

 

[mpg_29]

4 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

...unless that was both players and coaching/front office combined in which case the different numbers being peddled may refer to different things. Time will tell, basically.

The context makes it sound like it was about the player salary cap:

https://www.kamloopsmatters.com/highlights/canadian-premier-league-owners-ready-for-launch-1012589

Many details of the new league have yet to be finalized, including its salary cap for players. Shillington wants it to be less than $1 million. A separate salary cap would likely be in effect for coaching staff.

[youllneverwalkalone]

29 minutes ago, masster said:

I doubt the Fraser Valley would produce Forge type deposit numbers.

You're probably right, but there's a larger population to draw on and I wonder if the numbers in Great Victoria have been a bit lower than Friend and Shillington originally expected. If the goal is to survive, then you need to speak to a lower salary structure at that point. I wholehearted agree that this shouldn't stop other clubs from spending more, but I can understand the Pacific FC concern.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Can see where you are coming from now, mpg_29, but journalists have been known to get confused so a direct attributed quote would be better to really nail it down.

Edited September 7, 2018 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[DrFitzpatrick]

1 hour ago, masster said:

I doubt the Fraser Valley would produce Forge type deposit numbers.

But I think they would do a hell of a lot better than Langford

[Kent]

I wonder if we will even learn what the salary cap and player salaries will be in the first few years. We might not ever get the clarity we want on these discussion points.

[zen]

14 hours ago, Rocket Robin said:

Well they've all been starters in the last few months....but maybe no more than two at a time!  

Sure they've had to start by circumstance not merit. That doesn't make them starters.

[ironcub14]

On 9/6/2018 at 12:16 PM, BuzzAndSting said:

Again, you clearly don't understand the current landscape.

No one does. Despite Stuart's assurances in his tweets, he and the Fury don't either. The Fury took risks to join the NASL which was no sure thing, and yet they're not willing to take a risk on this, that's the sticking point for a lot of this. On top of that the Fury have been attending every meeting with the CPL up until they apparently found out they wouldn't be able to keep their entire roster in tact and they may be required to cut their budget. As others have pointed out they have turned their roster over every off season so that excuse also doesn't sit will with a lot of fans. All of this doesn't sound like a club who was worried about the stability of the league to me.

You and others seem to believe that the level of the USL is a big draw for the fans in Ottawa, I disagree. The majority of fans in Ottawa that I know and see at games are casual soccer fans, families, kids and those just looking for a fun afternoon. I understand the level of the CPL may be lower in the beginning but at least it's all ours and eventually it will grow. For a lot of the casual fans I know they have already expressed a desire to see games against Hamilton, Halifax and Calgary, now the Fury will lose that. They may not even be allowed into the V Cup which historically has brought a lot of buzz and awareness to the team.

Because the Fury compete at a level that will be similar to the CPL, maybe not exactly right away but similar. And it's in the best interest of the game in Canada to have them in the CPL, that's why everyone here wants them in the CPL.

Most of the passionate Fury fans will defend this decision because that's what passionate fans do but don't come here and expect die hard Canadian soccer fans to be okay with this. I'm a huge Fury fan and I respect their decision but I'm disappointed and will no longer support the team. I spend a certain amount of money on games, jerseys, etc... each year and from now on that money will be spent on CPL teams instead of the Fury. 

A really great summary. I know the Fury landscape pretty well, I got Stu/FuryFanatic into his first Fury blogging gig with me on RedNation Online, and I know who the OGs are in the Ottawa supporter scene who have been at the forefront since the CSL/PDL days, before the Fury joined NASL.

While you see a lot of passionate Fury fans defending the Fury in their decision, I can see that the OGs, the ones who really understand the whole Canadian football landscape from top to bottom, the ones leading BBSC and SMR, I would take an educated guess that about 70-90% of them are pissed at the Fury and opposed to them not joining CPL for the debut season. A lot of us are Voyageurs first and foremost, that's the kind of mentality it takes to support a team in CSL or PDL.

But for sure, the more we talk to various parties involved in these discussions, the more apparent it is that the CSA and CPL deserve just as much blame for this ridiculous situation as the Fury and OSEG does. Canadian soccer has somehow managed to shoot itself in the foot yet again, that seems like it's never going to end one way or another.

[ironcub14]

And just to address what various people here have said defending the Fury for not wanting to blow up their roster to join the CPL, taking a page from what Stu/FuryFanatic has said on Twitter the last few days, I agree with you guys as well.

With that in mind, I spent the last few days on Twitter as well pitching the idea of a soft salary cap with a luxury tax, similar to MLB and NBA. With the right salary cap, whatever suits all CPL owners, we have a reasonable financial threshold. With it being a soft cap with a luxury tax, we allow the Fury to keep as much of their wage bill as they like, with a reasonable tax that they contribute back to the league. The financials can always be worked out, money issues can always be compromised and negotiated upon in boardrooms, that's just business.

I pitched the idea to Stu, Graeme Ivory, the ex-marketing manager of Fury and John Pugh's right-hand man, and Peter Schaad, all of who seemed to be receptive to the idea to various degrees. I honestly hope that they did broach that idea in their negotiations, for the love of god, but I'm honestly not so sure. I know that there are many other complex subjects up for negotiation between the various parties, but this seems to be the biggest one and the one most referred to publicly. It's a shame these negotiations couldn't have come to a positive agreement for 2019, and I can say that the Fury do feel that way as well.

[Lord Bob]

24 minutes ago, ironcub14 said:

While you see a lot of passionate Fury fans defending the Fury in their decision, I can see that the OGs, the ones who really understand the whole Canadian football landscape from top to bottom, the ones leading BBSC and SMR, I would take an educated guess that about 70-90% of them are pissed at the Fury and opposed to them not joining CPL for the debut season. A lot of us are Voyageurs first and foremost, that's the kind of mentality it takes to support a team in CSL or PDL.

Honestly, I got a few guys from Ottawa going "look at this fanatic asshole!" when I did my super hardcore blog post on not sanctioning the Fury, but most of the reaction from Ottawa has been very considered and reasonable. One could never blame a Fury fan for sticking up for his club over a league, never ever.

[ironcub14]

4 minutes ago, Benjamin Massey said:

Honestly, I got a few guys from Ottawa going "look at this fanatic asshole!" when I did my super hardcore blog post on not sanctioning the Fury, but most of the reaction from Ottawa has been very considered and reasonable. One could never blame a Fury fan for sticking up for his club over a league, never ever.

Could be cause the reaction from Ottawa, publicly on twitter anyways, came from me lol.

Sticking up from the club is nice, but there's a difference between the club itself and the club executives that make a decision, however benevolent and well-intentioned their actions may be. And honestly, leaving CPL with 7 clubs at launch is nearly unforgivable considering how important this project is. CPL can not fail.

[Winnipeg Fury]

I met one of the die-hard Fury fans in Winnipeg a few months back.  He was so pumped about CPL, he bought a Valour FC membership !  He told me the Ottawa fans were 90% for CPL.

Ottawa would have been favoured to take it all in 2019.  Too bad a compromise could not be reached.

Perhaps it's not too late for Fury fans to put some pressure on the club to find a compromise.

If not, CPL need to move forward and put this behind them, asap.  Hopefully we find an eighth club for 2019, if not, so be it.  We have other expansion clubs coming on board.

Perhaps CPL can find another prospective owner for Ottawa for 2020.  Truth be told, the average soccer fan in Winnipeg or anywhere outside of Ontario, has probably never heard of the Ottawa Fury.  It will make no difference to fans in Winnipeg.  We have almost 1300 members already, I can tell you very few of them have heard of the Ottawa Fury.

It would be great to have Ottawa in the CPL.  If not the Fury, then hopefully the league finds another prospective owner.

 

[Ansem]

There shouldn't be any compromise in my opinion. CPL set rules and every teams have to abide to it. Other "competent" and "successful" leagues around the world don't let 1 team impose their rules on the others. That's the quickest way to CSL 2.0. The league's unwillingness to cave to the Fury just to get them at all cost actually show consistency, confidence and competence.

After cooling my head, I do see that and CPL should be applauded for that. I don't see the Habs, Leafs or Rangers getting exemptions to the rules. I don't see the Yankees or Warriors get exemptions to their leagues, why should the Fury? Based on what exactly?

No disrespect to the team but they are abiding to USL set of rules...and if they were invited into MLS, they would quickly abide by those rules. Now you see why CPL can't have that. Other leagues would never take them seriously if they did and leagues do observes each other.

That's simply not the way business works.

Exemple:

When MLS announced they were looking for a 2nd club in New York, one of the potential ownership groups that approached MLS was the Cosmos. However, the owners for the Cosmos demanded that MLS allow them to retain ownership of their brand (something no other MLS club has) and allow them to use the cost of building a stadium as an expansion fee rather than giving MLS the fee. MLS flat out refused.

So, if we agree that MLS is successful and competent, the fact that CPL wouldn't bend to make exceptions like MLS did, is an overhaul good sign for me.

The ball is in the Fury's court, CPL said their peace and are looking elsewhere.

[Lord Bob]

1 hour ago, ironcub14 said:

Could be cause the reaction from Ottawa, publicly on twitter anyways, came from me lol.

Not just you, but not that many.

[Initial B]

I'm a Day 1 Fury SSH and I want both the Fury and the CPL to succeed, but I'm having trouble with finding data. I didn't want to comment until I could analyse the estimated Salary caps. Since USL doesn't post their team salaries (they need a union like MLS who does), it was hard to calculate. I tried using the USL team values in transfermarkt and parse them with known MLS player salaries from the MLSPU to get approximate USL team salaries, but I didn't get anything that looked realistic.

Just looking at the trransfermarkt club values, I found the following ranges of team market values:  MLS (43.1-14.2 million); USL (8.1-2.8 million); English League One (11.7-2.3 million), English League 2 (6.0-1.7 million). From the data, I would assume that USL falls somewhere between 3rd and 4th tier in UK football. The Ottawa Fury are given a market value of 5 million, roughly the League One median. The League Two median is about 2.8 million, which sounds more like the ballpark that the CPL is eyeing.

If the CPL was establishing a Salary Cap range that would allow the Fury to join and allow the other CPL clubs to join wherever they feel comfortable below that ceiling, perhaps it could work. But that could lead to both inflation of CPL player salaries not commensurate with the expected quality of play and a lack of parity that is the foundation of all Can-Am Major Leagues (not including Mexico). 

I also read a number of articles and spreadsheets as I was researching this and suggest you read them too, as I found them enlightening.

https://www.soctakes.com/2018/04/18/too-small-to-succeed-the-perils-of-owning-a-lower-division-pro-soccer-team/

https://www.soctakes.com/2018/07/30/usl-franchise-fees-shepard-tone-or-progress/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_bTyRhVEXTNur8IVv8JV_rVGkOQcGyrLONPCYEIKEmk/edit#gid=0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MYGPYfDY7vVD1xDldLkSTUtAWTYufjgSjJGYj4Ajudg/edit#gid=0

Just reading all those makes me wonder just how much revenue in expansion fees the Ottawa Fury would pass up in order to join the CPL this year. There are 7 clubs joining USL in 2019 paying $7 million in expansion fees each ($49 million US in total). If you were part of the Fury's FO, would you jump ship now to join a league that's unproven and forgo a slice of that pie? We all need to remember that running a football club is a business, no matter how much we wish it was country over club.

Regardless of whether the Fury are in CPL or USL, I will support. Which exactly what CPL supporters will do with their clubs. Now the question is whether the Club owners who have been saying they will absorb losses the first couple of years will put their money where their mouths are. Are they just paying lip service or are they true believers in building up Canadian Soccer? I think that's what has us all worried. If we really believed them, then whether the Fury join the CPL or not should be moot.

[Initial B]

Upon further reflection, I wonder if a lot of the consternation is looking ahead to the 2019 Voyageurs Cup competition. If a Div 2 Ottawa Fury defeats their Div 1 CPL opponent handily, that damages the CPL brand in it's infancy and may influence public perception against investing their social capital in the league and possibly leading to its decline and dissolution. If the CSA decides to disallow the Fury from competing, then they look hypocritical if the MLS, L1O and LPSQ teams are allowed to participate. And there is no way the CSA will not allow the MLS teams to compete because (if Ottawa and FCE attendances were any indication), those teams will be the biggest home gate draws for their respective CPL away matches all season. The optics look bad no matter which way you slice it. ☹️

[ted]

33 minutes ago, Initial B said:

Just reading all those makes me wonder just how much revenue in expansion fees the Ottawa Fury would pass up in order to join the CPL this year. There are 7 clubs joining USL in 2019 paying $7 million in expansion fees each ($49 million US in total). If you were part of the Fury's FO, would you jump ship now to join a league that's unproven and forgo a slice of that pie? We all need to remember that running a football club is a business, no matter how much we wish it was country over club.

That isn't much pie. 

 I assume the league gets a cut, but even if it doesn't, $49M divided by 33 clubs is only $1.4M each.

Not exactly a windfall payday for the owners and if it puts the business at risk of total collapse in the near future, not a great idea.

[CDNFootballer]

21 hours ago, jedinathan said:

Ottawa's narrative seems to be that they're paying what Canadians are worth, and that the CPL salary will be lower than USL due because they can't afford the quality.

They have to drive that narrative now.

There's no evidence Ottawa is paying well over the USL salary budget which is in the 250-500k range for most teams in 2018.

Ottawa Fury is not a club that spends lavishly, they gutted their roster after making the NASL final because they didn't want to pay $ to retain players. They jumped leagues to save $, they got rid of internationals to save $.

They will claim they are paying better than CPL simply to drive a narrative and try to keep fans now.

Edited September 7, 2018 by CDNFootballer

[CDNFootballer]

16 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

I've linked this previously on page 2 of this thread:

FC Edmonton supporters were the ones discussing (albeit somewhat skeptically) a rumour of $500k being the cap on reddit along with the idea that the cap is around half of the Ottawa Fury's current player salary budget (that came from a reddit user called LCRV_Adam) in response to FuryFanatic stating they were not the eighth CanPL team. That was the first inkling I had that the reason Ottawa might steer clear was the cap being too low rather than too high as it ran completely counter to what usually gets discussed on this subforum.

It only took a few days after that for Ottawa to officially confirm they were staying in USL and a stream of tweets to emerge from somebody known to have close contacts to the Fury front office who broke the move from the NASL to USL that echoed the idea of the cap being $500k and elaborated further on it with further concerns related to accommodation arrangements for players and the lack of a TV deal and a travel related sponsor. The salary cap angle then appeared to be further backed up by a tweet from a journalist with Le Droit the francophone daily newspaper in Ottawa.

So a reddit rumour of 500k and a front office who would benefit from driving the same narrative.

Please don't tell me as well the Le Droit guy is the one who said that CPL salaries will be a fraction of the amount the USL is paying.

[CDNFootballer]

2 hours ago, Initial B said:

https://www.soctakes.com/2018/04/18/too-small-to-succeed-the-perils-of-owning-a-lower-division-pro-soccer-team/

https://www.soctakes.com/2018/07/30/usl-franchise-fees-shepard-tone-or-progress/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_bTyRhVEXTNur8IVv8JV_rVGkOQcGyrLONPCYEIKEmk/edit#gid=0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MYGPYfDY7vVD1xDldLkSTUtAWTYufjgSjJGYj4Ajudg/edit#gid=0

Just reading all those makes me wonder just how much revenue in expansion fees the Ottawa Fury would pass up in order to join the CPL this year. There are 7 clubs joining USL in 2019 paying $7 million in expansion fees each ($49 million US in total). If you were part of the Fury's FO, would you jump ship now to join a league that's unproven and forgo a slice of that pie? We all need to remember that running a football club is a business, no matter how much we wish it was country over club.

 

Where do you see that USL franchises get a slice of the USL expansion fee?

[Unnamed Trialist]

Just now, ted said:

That isn't much pie. 

 I assume the league gets a cut, but even if it doesn't, $49M divided by 33 clubs is only $1.4M each.

Not exactly a windfall payday for the owners and if it puts the business at risk of total collapse in the near future, not a great idea.

Ted, sorry, a bit unrelated. I recall you or one of the LakeSideBuoys posted that the Highlanders attendance numbers were actually up this year. Perhaps even over a thousand a game? I was on the web and did not find info, so asking: what did the PDL Highlanders draw this year?

I am asking as I am wondering if we can use that to gauge potential fans for PacificFC. If Highlanders are over 1000, would that make it reasonable to predict 3k for Pacific FC, 4k?

What do you think would be a reasonable walk up crowd for a PacificFC vs. Hamilton home opener, for example? How many of those will end up being season tickets? 

 

[Ansem]

1 hour ago, CDNFootballer said:

Where do you see that USL franchises get a slice of the USL expansion fee?

I was told that they did not get it. Can someone verify that?

[Prune_55]

22 hours ago, Benjamin Massey said:

Legally, that's an interesting question, although TFC reserves dropping to USLD3 in 2019 mighy affect it.

"CanPL is 'Canadian division one' and you'll sanction the MLS teams to play American division one but you won't let us play American division two:" also interesting. But I think we have to take the risk of a judge ballsing it all up, because "you'll let the Ottawa Fury play USL but won't let the Hypothetical Disillusioned Moving CanPL Team do it?!" seems really bad. I watched the NASL for years, you don't want to get into the place where USL can whisper "you know, our travel costs are lower and Didier Drogba might visit..." into Halifax's ear.

Legally the only way the CSA could withhold sanctioning from Ottawa is to also withdraw sanctioning from TFC, TFCII, Whitecaps and Impact in the same year.  Denying one club access to play in a USSF league while sanctioning 3 others would bankrupt the CSA if the Fury ever took them to court. 

[Prune_55]

2 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Where do you see that USL franchises get a slice of the USL expansion fee?

USL clubs get a cut of expansion fees plus exit fees for teams going to MLS (FC Cincy approx $15m followed by Sacremento, Carolina and Phoenix in the future). 

MLS clubs do not get a cut of expansion fees.