CPL General

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

On 9/25/2022 at 4:55 PM, Watchmen said:

While there was a lot of talk, those talks also collapsed when it was clear there was significant differences between the leagues. The revised Leagues Cup is the compromise, and I wouldn't expect much more than it any time soon.

What happens down the road if Leagues Cup games start drawing much better ratings than MLS ones?

 

[Kingston]

5 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

What happens down the road if Leagues Cup games start drawing much better ratings than MLS ones?

Sure, some US markets will show well for Mexican teams, and good for them, but I don't see it as a general thing.  Also, the games against Mexican teams wouldn't be as big of draws if they were regular league matches rather than special events.

The two biggest reasons the leagues won't merge, however, are FIFA rules and money.  The FIFA rule aspect is, I think, obvious to most people.

The money aspect is that Mexico is poor compared to the US and Canada.  MLS started far behind the well established LMX.  Right now MLS is in the process of passing LMX and soon (in the big picture) MLS will have forever left them behind.  I can see why LMX might be interested in a merger to tie themselves to the growing MLS money pile but there's no real up side for MLS long term. 

[jordan]

Doesn’t Liga MX draw more viewers than any other soccer league shown in the US already? I know they are clear of EPL viewers.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

5 minutes ago, Kingston said:

...but there's no real up side for MLS long term. 

The large Mexican-American audience finally tuning in regularly would potentially catapult them beyond the NHL in interest terms in an American context. The Leagues Cup is factored into the 10 year deal with Apple TV for a reason. The Atletico Ottawa guy who was interviewed might be outlining the scenario that unfolds after that if things go well.

On the plus side for CanPL, if CanPL clubs could eventually wind up being factored into a larger joint divisional league structure to stay part of CONCACAF/FIFA it provides a reason for investors like Atletico Madrid to hang in there. One short quote that may have been taken somewhat out of context isn't much to go on but worth keeping an eye on.

[narduch]

Fifa won't allow MLS and Liga MX to merge. Ever.

They will have this tournament (Leagues Cup) and thats it. Jury is still out on how successful that will be

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Ever is a very long time. FIFA is corrupt and money talks. Agree on that last bit though. Will be interesting to see what unfolds. It will no doubt work well in the "Aztlan" portion of the United States but not so obvious that it will make much difference in Canada. Serie A would be the league to hook up with in a GTA context.

[Watchmen]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

The two biggest reasons the leagues won't merge, however, are FIFA rules and money.  The FIFA rule aspect is, I think, obvious to most people.

 

44 minutes ago, narduch said:

Fifa won't allow MLS and Liga MX to merge. Ever.

Actually, FIFA isn't really opposed to it.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/major-league-soccer/story/4341340/potential-mls-liga-mx-merger-would-be-seen-in-a-positive-light-infantino

[Ansem]

Yet they were against the Super League once UEFA said no. As long as CONCACAF doesn't want it either - it's not happening.

Also, why would the Mexicans ever want a merger? They are getting their cake and eating it too without losing control of their league. A merger would see the "Super League" quickly being under American control - something that wouldn't go well over there contrarily to here

[Kingston]

21 hours ago, Ansem said:

Also, why would the Mexicans ever want a merger? 

In reality most people in Mexico probably don't want a merger.

As to why the owners might, it would be because they're looking at the long term money picture.  When MLS started ~25 years ago, it was well behind LMX.  Now the two leagues are at approximate parity.  In 25 years from now, the money in MLS will be far ahead of LMX.  So if an owner wanted to tie themselves to that money train, the window to do so is now (if there is ever going to be a chance).

[narduch]

A merger only makes sense if you introduce promotion/relegation and limit the top flight to about 20 teams.

I don't think they would want to do that though. 

MLS already has way too many teams for a single tier. A 50 team league would be nuts

[narduch]

On 9/27/2022 at 10:11 AM, Kingston said:

Sure, some US markets will show well for Mexican teams, and good for them, but I don't see it as a general thing.  Also, the games against Mexican teams wouldn't be as big of draws if they were regular league matches rather than special events.

The two biggest reasons the leagues won't merge, however, are FIFA rules and money.  The FIFA rule aspect is, I think, obvious to most people.

The money aspect is that Mexico is poor compared to the US and Canada.  MLS started far behind the well established LMX.  Right now MLS is in the process of passing LMX and soon (in the big picture) MLS will have forever left them behind.  I can see why LMX might be interested in a merger to tie themselves to the growing MLS money pile but there's no real up side for MLS long term. 

I actually wonder if they risk going to the well too many times.

You can only squeeze so much money out of Mexican Americans.

They may totally dilute the market.

Not totally the same thing, but prior to TFC there was a lucrative foreign club friendly market in Toronto. But TFC eventually helped kill that.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

2 hours ago, narduch said:

A merger only makes sense if you introduce promotion/relegation and limit the top flight to about 20 teams....

That's the angle that might be beneficial to certain CanPL investors, if it was three way rather than two way.

[shermanator]

 

[Kingston]

2 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

That's the angle that might be beneficial to certain CanPL investors, if it was three way rather than two way.

Except there's no way an owner would go through all the tumult of moving into a merged league for the purpose of chasing the big money and then also leave a closed system for pro/rel.  If (which won't happen) the top 20 Canadian/US/Mexican teams made some sort of super league, it would be a closed league.

[SpursFlu]

The MLS can't even figure out how to close its league to just 20 teams. How on earth would you create a closed 20 team league over an entire continent?

[Ansem]

Merger is just not happening - League Cup gives both leagues what they want.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

You come to an agreement on how many MLS and Liga MX teams get into each division at the outset of the merged structure then let the final standings the following season determine who goes where would be one way to do it.

CanPL clubs could factor in at a lower level initially but scope for promotion to the top tier would end the Canada will only ever have three clubs in the same three cities issue where MLS is concerned.

I'm skeptical that it would ever actually happen but I am willing to believe that there are some people pushing for this and that Atletico Madrid might be interested in it as a way to build Atletico Ottawa up into something bigger than it is right now. My understanding is that it is Mexican clubs that have been most keen on the concept rather than the MLS I/Os.

[ted]

1 hour ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

... Atletico Madrid might be interested in it as a way to build Atletico Ottawa up into something bigger than it is right now.

Why? What more do you think they want from Ottawa than a development team in Canada?
 

[Unnamed Trialist]

13 minutes ago, ted said:

Why? What more do you think they want from Ottawa than a development team in Canada?

It's a good question. 

I think they got in after their experiences in India, France and now Mexico, because, first of all, it is something they have been doing. Not so much for development, but to get their undervalued brand out there into other markets.

So for them, I think you are right (if I am understanding you), any talk of merger is not of consequence for them.

Then, there's a little detail, which is that Enrique Cerezo at At Madrid and the owners of MediaPro have a complicated past, there used to be bad blood, but now they are colleagues; and in fact in the same line of business (the former produces fictional tv content, movies). 

They likely did not overthink it. In Mexico they bought a 2nd tier team and it is now competitive in top flight, but they rarely even take players from there, where the level would be closer. In Canada, for the money spent, and looking ahead to 2026, they will stick with it. 

Don't underestimate their commitment to the women's game either, if it were to cost them a million and a half, for a team in a Canadian league, they'd spend it.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

10 hours ago, ted said:

Why? What more do you think they want from Ottawa than a development team in Canada?

They want to be as famous as Real Madrid globally in a very jealous little brother sort of way and a promotion or two up a higher budget North American league structure would give the team and more importantly their brand greater visbility. Also could substantially increase the value of the club making it easier to justify their investment.

Far from convinced it will ever happen but suspect the quote was based on something concrete that some people are actively pushing. Think you would probably find, if you did some googling, that Duane Rollins was pushing the story of a possible MLS-Liga MX merger in 2022 when the TV contract is up a few years back.

[Ansem]

5 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

They want to be as famous as Real Madrid globally in a very jealous little brother sort of way and a promotion or two up a higher budget North American league structure would give the team and more importantly their brand greater visbility

You're funny!

[Kingston]

19 hours ago, shermanator said:

 

Good that there's a defender of the year award.  Bad that it looks like a walrus laying an egg.

[Unnamed Trialist]

6 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

They want to be as famous as Real Madrid globally in a very jealous little brother sort of way and a promotion or two up a higher budget North American league structure would give the team and more importantly their brand greater visbility. Also could substantially increase the value of the club making it easier to justify their investment.

Far from convinced it will ever happen but suspect the quote was based on something concrete that some people are actively pushing. Think you would probably find, if you did some googling, that Duane Rollins was pushing the story of a possible MLS-Liga MX merger in 2022 when the TV contract is up a few years back.

I know you overstated it, so I don't mind.

Clearly they do have a little brother syndrome, and have for half a century. 

In Madrid itself, it is also a class thing, in part, the south of the city and the working and lower middle class is more Atlético, the middle and upper middle, and the political and economic agents, are more Madrid fans.

They can't rival Real Madrid, but they can get more out of their brand for the kind of team they are. They have won leagues over RM and Barça, they won Europa League, they compete at a high level. They blew two finals against El Real which really hurt them, winning one would really have turned things around for them. A new stadium. But problems with their international branding. They sell merchandise, draw sponsors and get tv and other income way below what they should for the level of quality they've shown over this last decade or so.

Usually winning is what helps you leapfrog in these matters. Then, these little other things you do to get a slight edge, like the CPL project.

[RS]

22 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

The MLS can't even figure out how to close its league to just 20 teams. How on earth would you create a closed 20 team league over an entire continent?

Why would MLS try to figure out something it's not interested in?

[SpursFlu]

Just now, RS said:

Why would MLS try to figure out something it's not interested in?

Well exactly.. so a closed North American league would mean what? A closed league to 10 MLS teams?

I think its a dumb idea either way. But at least in Europe with the history and the business model right off the bat you can pull out 12 teams across the continent that are on another level based on performance. With the American franchise salary cap with no real history or big support discrepancies, how would you select the priviledged few who would join the priviledged few Mexican teams in some kinda Super League?