CPL new teams speculation

[BigBadBorto]

1 hour ago, Soccerpro2 said:

This idea of Moncton drawing a “regional” fan base is stupid. It’s not going to happen.

A team isn’t going to happen in Moncton or St John’s for painfully obvious reasons. 

People need to stop with the word vomit on here.

Why can't we have a proper discussion without  calling others opinions "stupid" and "word vomit"?  Who made you the expert? Moncton and St. John's may not be in my top 5 cities for next CPL team, but I would still put them somewhere in the top 10-..  Moncton draws very good crowds (5k per game) for their junior team  and the idea of drawing from nearby cities is not stupid at all

[Kingston]

5 hours ago, BigBadBorto said:

Why can't we have a proper discussion without  calling others opinions "stupid" and "word vomit"?  Who made you the expert? Moncton and St. John's may not be in my top 5 cities for next CPL team, but I would still put them somewhere in the top 10-..  Moncton draws very good crowds (5k per game) for their junior team  and the idea of drawing from nearby cities is not stupid at all

The word choice was unnecessarily harsh but the idea was valid. 

Both Moncton and St. John’s are too small. 

St. John’s is also too far. 

It seems very unlikely that many people  will travel 1-2 hours each way to see a game in Moncton.  Not that no one ever will but not regularly in sufficient numbers to matter to the viability of a team. 

Neither of these cities should be in a list of top ten potential CPL expansion locations.

L1 for Moncton, definitely yes. 

[Copes]

15 hours ago, Soccerpro2 said:

This idea of Moncton drawing a “regional” fan base is stupid. It’s not going to happen.

A team isn’t going to happen in Moncton or St John’s for painfully obvious reasons. 

People need to stop with the word vomit on here.

I attended the Pints with Patrice event held in preseason and specifically asked Derek Martin about his thoughts on Atlantic Expansion. The podcast is out from Down the Pub. 

Derek said he doesn't think Moncton will work because of the lack of corporate HQs / big offices. Basically that is a big factor in a team's economic success. Meanwhile, he said the only other place he thinks could work in Atlantic Canada is St. John's, NL. He thinks the major offices of big companies are present. He wasn't worried about travel - his comment is they hop on a plane for every game anyway, whether they are travelling to St. John's or Toronto is pretty indifferent. 

So, in short, the owner of the Wanderers - who probably knows more about professional soccer in Atlantic Canada than any of us - disagrees with you on St. John's and would not consider the discussion "word vomit". 

[BigBadBorto]

10 hours ago, Kingston said:

The word choice was unnecessarily harsh but the idea was valid. 

Both Moncton and St. John’s are too small. 

St. John’s is also too far. 

It seems very unlikely that many people  will travel 1-2 hours each way to see a game in Moncton.  Not that no one ever will but not regularly in sufficient numbers to matter to the viability of a team. 

Neither of these cities should be in a list of top ten potential CPL expansion locations.

L1 for Moncton, definitely yes. 

You have good points, however, who would you put ahead of them on the top 10 list?  There are not that many cities with metros over 300k

Here is how I would do a top 10 list.  Who would you place instead of St Johns or Moncton that I haven't listed?

top tier:

Quebec City

London or Kitchener

Saskatoon

Edmonton

 

Middle tier

Windsor

Kitchener or London (whichever doesn't have a team from top tier)

Montreal area team (like Laval, somewhere with a distinction and distance from Montreal city proper)

 

Bottom tier

Kelowna

St John's NL

Moncton

 

Edited May 5 by BigBadBorto

[Kingston]

1 minute ago, BigBadBorto said:

You have good points, however, who would you put ahead of them on the top 10 list?  There are not that many cities metros over 300k

Here is how I would do a top 10 list.  Who would you place instead of St Johns or Moncton

You are correct that there aren’t many metro areas big enough.  In fact, I think 300,000 is too low and the number should be more like 500,000.  I will make a special case exemption for Victoria because it is close to this number and is also the city in a geographically defined island area.  My top ten list for potential CPL expansion locations in the next few years is:

Edmonton 

London

Kitchener

Quebec City

That is all.

Assuming we don’t have to use one of these markets to relocate York, this gives us a very nice, tidy twelve team league.

If, by 2030 or so, all twelve of these teams are drawing well, financially secure, in suitable stadiums, with a good CPL media deal in place and solid sponsorship all around, then we can decide whether it would be useful for the league to consider further expansion into smaller markets.  Given the expected increase in both geographic, scope and level of the L1 leagues by that time, however, it may make more sense to cap the CPL at these 12 larger markets.  This would allow the CPL to start ramping up the salary cap and the level of play without being dragged down by smaller markets while simultaneously leaving decent sized flagship cities for the growing L1 leagues, one step down the pyramid.


 

 

[BigBadBorto]

2 hours ago, Copes said:

I attended the Pints with Patrice event held in preseason and specifically asked Derek Martin about his thoughts on Atlantic Expansion. The podcast is out from Down the Pub. 

Derek said he doesn't think Moncton will work because of the lack of corporate HQs / big offices. Basically that is a big factor in a team's economic success. Meanwhile, he said the only other place he thinks could work in Atlantic Canada is St. John's, NL. He thinks the major offices of big companies are present. He wasn't worried about travel - his comment is they hop on a plane for every game anyway, whether they are travelling to St. John's or Toronto is pretty indifferent. 

So, in short, the owner of the Wanderers - who probably knows more about professional soccer in Atlantic Canada than any of us - disagrees with you on St. John's and would not consider the discussion "word vomit". 

I'm on the fence between St. John's or Moncton, but leaning towards Moncton still..  Derek Martin would certainly have better insight than me, but I still think travel cost is a massive advantage for Moncton..  Teams in Ontario or BC or Calgary would only need one flight to visit both Moncton and Halifax, while they would need an additional flight to St. John's.  Also flights to St. John's are very expensive..  

St. John's is a slightly bigger city, but Moncton is growing faster and has a bigger regional population to draw from..

Moncton has more immigrants, who are more likely to be into soccer.

Moncton has a history of success with the Wildcats Q league team (25 + years with 5k attendance)

I think it will be easier to attract players from Quebec and Ontario to Moncton, since its much easier for family to visit and also Moncton is a bilingual city so this would be attractive for francophone players

There are corporations in NB that would get behind this, maybe not as much as NL..

 

 

[brianjc]

12 minutes ago, Kingston said:

You are correct that there aren’t many metro areas big enough.  In fact, I think 300,000 is too low and the number should be more like 500,000.  I will make a special case exemption for Victoria because it is close to this number and is also the city in a geographically defined island area.  My top ten list for potential CPL expansion locations in the next few years is:

Edmonton 

London

Kitchener

Quebec City

That is all.

Maybe relocate York to Scarborough, and what about Saskatchewan, (If Regina or Saskatoon can represent the entire province)

[BigBadBorto]

11 minutes ago, Kingston said:

You are correct that there aren’t many metro areas big enough.  In fact, I think 300,000 is too low and the number should be more like 500,000.  I will make a special case exemption for Victoria because it is close to this number and is also the city in a geographically defined island area.  My top ten list for potential CPL expansion locations in the next few years is:

Edmonton 

London

Kitchener

Quebec City

That is all.

Assuming we don’t have to use one of these markets to relocate York, this gives us a very nice, tidy twelve team league.

If, by 2030 or so, all twelve of these teams are drawing well, financially secure, in suitable stadiums, with a good CPL media deal in place and solid sponsorship all around, then we can decide whether it would be useful for the league to consider further expansion into smaller markets.  Given the expected increase in both geographic, scope and level of the L1 leagues by that time, however, it may make more sense to cap the CPL at these 12 larger markets.  This would allow the CPL to start ramping up the salary cap and the level of play without being dragged down by smaller markets while simultaneously leaving decent sized flagship cities for the growing L1 leagues, one step down the pyramid.


 

 

I think 500k is way too high a threshold.  Halifax is only now surpassing 500k people.  It was 430k or so when the league started and its the biggest success (off the field of course..).  I agree on getting to 12 teams and make sure its stable and not rushing to 16 teams for example. 

It also depends on who steps up from these potential cities and has a good proposal with stadium and money behind it.  Whoever it is I think need to show that they can get a minimum of 3k deposits for season tickets (and the deposit needs to be at least $100 to show real commitment).  So if some potential owner had a good business plan and stadium plan in Kelowna or Saskatoon and were able to show they can get deposits towards 3k season tickets, I would not push them asside because they don't have 500k population.

[phil03]

My concern with the argument against Moncton and other smaller markets is that they would all make sense if the league as a whole was thriving, but the reality is that we aren't there yet. 

The reality is that we have one true success story (Halifax), two that we can reasonably hope will get above the 5K profitability treshold this year (Hamilton and Ottawa), three that need improvement (Victoria, Winnipeg and Calgary) but that are showing signs of progress, one that is pretty bad (Vancouver) and one that is downright disastrous (Toronto). 

At the risk of being too blunt, all the hypothetical scenarios we come up about where we want to be in 10-20 years are just that: hypothetical scenarios. Right now, its actually clubs we put on bigger markets are dragging us down, as they have simply failed at building much of a momentum. All the market size and local corporate power in the world won't help if those CPL clubs can't make a dent in the local consciousness, and they'll always be some inherent challenges in Canada's biggest cities (the big three but also Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton to a lesser degree) because people there are often used to their sports teams playing at the highest possible level in their sports.

For all the talks about the MLS clubs being competition even though they often have issues convincing people to follow them instead of some of the super clubs in Europe due to this, which is even more true for CPL clubs. IMO that is, by far, the biggest dragon Canadian soccer as a whole has to slay, but that's going to be a long battle to fight... 

The consequence of that is that a) the growth of the league is slowed and b) both our national programs and Canadian soccer has a whole need to deal with the consequences of a huge chunk of the money generated by the former not being available to them for longer.

The one place where that hasn't been as much of an issue is in Halifax, because for a smaller market like that it means the world to have a pro team playing at a solid level. It is truly special for their community and the pride coming up with that mean that while there smaller pool of population and corporate cash its compensated by a far greater share of them being willing to support their local club. Hell, ods are that the main limitating factors for them right now is the stadium. Once they get a bigger stadium ods, they'll fill that one to more often than not and will also experiment a commensurate growth in sponsorship revenue.

So why not trying to repeat that model in other markets where we can reasonably hope it would happen? Sure, other spot being smaller then HFX will put limit to them but getting proportionally the same level of interest in Saint Johns in Moncton should be more then enough to build clubs that work financially, and right now that's what we need more then anything.

Lets build solid foundations for the league, ones that can ensure the CPL can stand on its own and be financially stable without hindering other aspects of our soccer system by continuing to make them pay to build up the league. THEN the league and its owners can try whatever they feel they need to do to achieve their long-term vision.

Edited May 5 by phil03

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

4 minutes ago, phil03 said:

... So why not trying to repeat that model in other markets where we can reasonably hope it would happen? ...

A handful of CSB investors who likely know very little about soccer in most cases appear to have convinced themselves that they have made an investment play that is going to provide them with huge returns on franchise values and expansion fees long term because it happened with MLS so all they have to do is hire people like Paul Beirne and Mark Noonan and hey presto or whatever. They appear to be oblivious to all the times similar league launching escapades haven't worked out happily ever after for investors like them not just in soccer and but in all the other sports in North America.

They need the GTA and lower mainland BC for their dream to unfold so I'm not holding my breath on London, Ont being tried out where a relocated York United is concerned complete with temporary bleachers in a park somewhere close to downtown Wanderers Grounds style any time soon. I know how this script usually ends and definitely don't want to see it unfold with this league. Enough has gone right that it would be nothing short of infuriating if it did given everything that was sacrificed at the altar of making this league happen by Victor Montagliani & Co from the time of the moratorium back around 2010 onwards.

[phil03]

29 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

SNIP

IMO the moratorium was genuinely the worse mistake done throughout. There was a real momentum in term of Canadian clubs back then. The Impact and the Whitecaps had just gotten in MLS and the Fury and Edmonton FC had just been created as professional operations. Even if, at seem probable, the US federation would have still put a cap on non-US clubs in their tier II leagues around the same time as they actually did (2014) what might have been created in the few extra years would have allowed that timeline's version of the CPL have more of a pre-existing base to work with...

EDIT: It might be controversial but I also think playing hardball with the Fury was a massive mistake. It basically made it very difficult for the league and the club to get to a compromise when it came to expansion rights, as for the Fury its a lot of money they'd now suddenly have to pay due to no fault of their own, and for the league compromising on it for literally the first club to come in would have been a bad precedent. Its total speculation on my end but I do think this is what made that particular story end like it did.

Considering that before it closed shop the Fury always said they were bound to join the CPL eventually and the league did seem open to accomodate them as they make the transition I do think there is a timeline somewhere where we have Athletico Québec instead and eventually the Fury join in, with the CPL feeling more comfortable making an exception or offering a big rebate on expansion fees after at least one or two other new clubs had already paid them, without anyone having to reconcile a fanbase to the league after the demise of their old club...

Edited May 5 by phil03

[SpursFlu]

I think if someone has the money, the stadium and an airport close by they should be able to put a team in a city with the population of 10. What does it matter? 

[Kingston]

6 hours ago, BigBadBorto said:

I think 500k is way too high a threshold.  Halifax is only now surpassing 500k people.  It was 430k or so when the league started and its the biggest success (off the field of course..).  I agree on getting to 12 teams and make sure its stable and not rushing to 16 teams for example. 

It also depends on who steps up from these potential cities and has a good proposal with stadium and money behind it.  Whoever it is I think need to show that they can get a minimum of 3k deposits for season tickets (and the deposit needs to be at least $100 to show real commitment).  So if some potential owner had a good business plan and stadium plan in Kelowna or Saskatoon and were able to show they can get deposits towards 3k season tickets, I would not push them asside because they don't have 500k population.

 

4 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

I think if someone has the money, the stadium and an airport close by they should be able to put a team in a city with the population of 10. What does it matter? 

I don’t mean that 500k is absolute but, while allowing for the occasional special case, I’m worried about the sustainability of smaller centres for three reasons. 

First, attendance can certainly drop once the “new team smell” wears off.  Look at Seattle and Atlanta in MLS as examples.  A great owner in a wonderful stadium in a small CPL city might be able to draw 5000 for the first few years, but it needs to be sustainable in year ten when the team has missed the playoffs three years running.

Second, longer-term I want to see the level of the CPL rise.  Maybe a small city can just hit 5000 attendance by doing everything right long-term.  What happens when the larger market clubs raise the bar to 10,000?  I don’t want to hold the league back to prevent Moncton or whatever smaller market teams we’ve saddled ourselves with from sinking.

Third is what I think the bigger picture of Canadian soccer could look like in, say, ten years.  Right now we have three MLS teams spending $15-$20 million US per year on payroll, eight CPL teams spending just over $1 million Canadian per year, and a growing L1 system of amateur teams.  A large group of MLS owners is looking to leverage the Messi and World Cup situations to increase spending, the CPL is also hoping to raise the bar, and the L1 teams are starting to stratify.  
 

In ten years, we could have three MLS teams spending between $30 and $50 million, ten or twelve CPL teams each spending $3 to $5 million, and upper level L1 teams spending $200 or $300 k on actual payroll.  By keeping the Moncton-type places out of the CPL, we both avoid tying anchors to the CPL and provide flagship cities for the top L1 teams.  It doesn’t mean saying no to an owner who wants to put a soccer team in Moncton – it means saying do it at the correct level. 

Edited May 5 by Kingston

[SoccMan]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

 

I don’t mean that 500k is absolute but, while allowing for the occasional special case, I’m worried about the sustainability of smaller centres for three reasons. 

First, attendance can certainly drop once the “new team smell” wears off.  Look at Seattle and Atlanta in MLS as examples.  A great owner in a wonderful stadium in a small CPL city might be able to draw 5000 for the first few years, but it needs to be sustainable in year ten when the team has missed the playoffs three years running.

Second, longer-term I want to see the level of the CPL rise.  Maybe a small city can just hit 5000 attendance by doing everything right long-term.  What happens when the larger market clubs raise the bar to 10,000?  I don’t want to hold the league back to prevent Moncton or whatever smaller market teams we’ve saddled ourselves with from sinking.

Third is what I think the bigger picture of Canadian soccer could look like in, say, ten years.  Right now we have three MLS teams spending $15-$20 million US per year on payroll, eight CPL teams spending just over $1 million Canadian per year, and a growing L1 system of amateur teams.  A large group of MLS owners is looking to leverage the Messi and World Cup situations to increase spending, the CPL is also hoping to raise the bar, and the L1 teams are starting to stratify.  
 

In ten years, we could have three MLS teams spending between $30 and $50 million, ten or twelve CPL teams each spending $3 to $5 million, and upper level L1 teams spending $200 or $300 k on actual payroll.  By keeping the Moncton-type places out of the CPL, we both avoid tying anchors to the CPL and provide flagship cities for the top L1 teams.  It doesn’t mean saying no to an owner who wants to put a soccer team in Moncton – it means saying do it at the correct level. 

So realistically speaking then it sounds like no more than 12 teams is probably the most the CPL will ever expand too. So looking at big center areas then they only go to Montreal, Edmonton ,Quebec City and  maybe a London Ontario or a Regina or Saskatoon, because going anywhere else and you are getting into cities with small populations if I’m following your thinking properly . 

[An Observer]

9 hours ago, BigBadBorto said:

You have good points, however, who would you put ahead of them on the top 10 list?  There are not that many cities with metros over 300k

Here is how I would do a top 10 list.  Who would you place instead of St Johns or Moncton that I haven't listed?

top tier:

Quebec City

London or Kitchener

Saskatoon

Edmonton

 

Middle tier

Windsor

Kitchener or London (whichever doesn't have a team from top tier)

Montreal area team (like Laval, somewhere with a distinction and distance from Montreal city proper)

 

Bottom tier

Kelowna

St John's NL

Moncton

 

I would probably add in the lower tier:

mississauga or brampton

oshawa

 

i know they are all GTA and would suffer from the same issues that plague York but they are all plausible if you had the right owner who was willing to invest in the right stadium in the right location. Whether that is better to something similar in a much smaller town but where that side is the only professional game in town is debatable.  And I am not saying I wouldn’t go with a small town over essentially a GTA suburb. I am just saying they are plausible in the right conditions 

[Kingston]

45 minutes ago, SoccMan said:

So realistically speaking then it sounds like no more than 12 teams is probably the most the CPL will ever expand too. 

Yes.  About twelve with the “about” part depending on whether they can find a way to succeed in markets that also host an MLS team.  

And then a stratified L1 system below that where the top teams and bigger cities are truly semi-pro, and the lower levels are truly amateur.  (L1O is getting closer to this now.)

This would give us development pathways all across the country and teams at salary levels appropriate for different skilled players all the way up to guys who are on the national team but outside the big European leagues. 

[phil03]

2 hours ago, Kingston said:

 

I don’t mean that 500k is absolute but, while allowing for the occasional special case, I’m worried about the sustainability of smaller centres for three reasons. 

First, attendance can certainly drop once the “new team smell” wears off.  Look at Seattle and Atlanta in MLS as examples.  A great owner in a wonderful stadium in a small CPL city might be able to draw 5000 for the first few years, but it needs to be sustainable in year ten when the team has missed the playoffs three years running.

Second, longer-term I want to see the level of the CPL rise.  Maybe a small city can just hit 5000 attendance by doing everything right long-term.  What happens when the larger market clubs raise the bar to 10,000?  I don’t want to hold the league back to prevent Moncton or whatever smaller market teams we’ve saddled ourselves with from sinking.

Third is what I think the bigger picture of Canadian soccer could look like in, say, ten years.  Right now we have three MLS teams spending $15-$20 million US per year on payroll, eight CPL teams spending just over $1 million Canadian per year, and a growing L1 system of amateur teams.  A large group of MLS owners is looking to leverage the Messi and World Cup situations to increase spending, the CPL is also hoping to raise the bar, and the L1 teams are starting to stratify.  
 

In ten years, we could have three MLS teams spending between $30 and $50 million, ten or twelve CPL teams each spending $3 to $5 million, and upper-level L1 teams spending $200 or $300 k on actual payroll.  By keeping the Moncton-type places out of the CPL, we both avoid tying anchors to the CPL and provide flagship cities for the top L1 teams.  It doesn’t mean saying no to an owner who wants to put a soccer team in Moncton – it means saying do it at the correct level. 

Honestly, if you say that to an investor who want to make a team in Moncton, I'd imagine the most likely reaction would be something along the line of ''you have only eight teams and a large portion of them don't make ends meet, you are struggling to get more candidates for expansion and when I come to you with a perfectly viable business plan you tell me I should go to L1 instead because that's the ''proper level'' for Moncton? Yeah, no. Call me back when either you have a Soccer pyramid that back that take or when you have eaten some humble pie!'' This isn't to say I don't understand where you are coming from but that's still what you'll get from a potential investor if you make that argument to them at this point in time, unless they stop returning your call altogether... After all, from their pov they can probably find a way to better invest that money and their interest is partially down to them caring for the sport and loving their community so the message that a Moncton or Kelowna just doesn't have it in them is unlikely to go down well with them.

As for what would happen if the scenario you outlined comes to pass (which I'd argue is far from sure, as Halifax could get 10K right now if they had the stadium and with the current growth rates Kelowna and Moncton might very well be there by the time the CPL get into those numbers...) I'd say there is two scenarios, depending on how the league rules evolve:

I. If the league is still not doing pro-rel I'd imagine there will still be a hard cap. In that case the clubs from bigger markets would basically agitate all the time for the cap rules to be loosened, or at least for the cap to be raised overall. Moreover, ods are you'll have investors from bigger markets who see they could make significantly higher profits then several of the CPL's clubs by moving them. I'd imagine that the combo of having the pressure from the other clubs, and the fears of losing solid money if they get what they want, alongside the temptation of potential buyers dangling big bags of cash in front of them, will eventually lead to a defacto exodus of clubs who can truly not follow pace in their current homes.

II. If pro-rel become a thing I'd imagine the salary cap is likely to be, at the very least, loosened ala MLS. I am sure there is some examples of salary cap and pro-rel cohabitating in some sports league accross the world but overall its a big ask for owners to accept rules handcuffing their teams financially to some degree when such dire consequences for their valuation await if they don't perform...

In that case clubs who don't follow the pace will simply wound up being progressively relegated as time goes by.

As an asside, I am fairly sceptical of the idea that there will necessarily be a boom after the World Cup. It makes more sense for the MLS, as there is still a sizable chunk of the USA who hasn't been really introduced to the sport and/or has negative misconceptions about it. I'd argue that Soccer is in fact quite a bit more popular in Canada proportionally speaking and its more Canadian soccer that remain very much a work in progress. Simply having a world cup here is unlikely to change that in and of itself. IMO the true outside help the CPL needs is for the CMNT to go on a run, as that would increase interest in Canadian soccer specifically.

Edited May 6 by phil03

[Kingston]

^ Thanks for your take.  I get where you’re coming from about the investor.   And I’m not sure the league wouldn’t agree with you.  The points I made earlier are just my thoughts on the matter and I could be wrong. 
 

On the point about the World Cup bump, I agree - there almost certainly won’t be one.  There hasn’t been in the past and we don’t suddenly see sold out rowing or speed skating events following Olympics.  

[Kent]

3 hours ago, phil03 said:

It makes more sense for the MLS, as there is still a sizable chunk of the USA who hasn't been really introduced to the sport and/or has negative misconceptions about it. I'd argue that Soccer is in fact quite a bit more popular in Canada proportionally speaking and its more Canadian soccer that remain very much a work in progress.

I am curious what this is based on? Are Atlanta, Cincinnatti, Charlotte, Nashville, and Seattle bigger than Toronto? They all had a higher average attendance than Toronto did in MLS, some of them by a lot. What about all the USL teams that outdraw our highest attended CPL teams? How about attendance at Gold Cup games hosted in US cities vs the couple times it has happened in Canada. Maybe we have more registered players per capita, or maybe TV ratings here and there are higher per capita in Canada. I remember years ago TV ratings were a talking point about how the sport is more popular in Canada than USA, but I thought it was probably more a case of Toronto and Montreal having a bigger percentage of Canada's population than any 1 American city does, so when only the local fanbase watches a game it seems like it's more popular here.

[brianjc]

14 hours ago, An Observer said:

I would probably add in the lower tier:

mississauga or brampton

oshawa

They already exist in L1O, it is important that the CPL and L1C do not cannibalize each other by putting too many teams in the same places, and suffer from low attendances.

 

[phil03]

17 hours ago, Kent said:

I am curious what this is based on? Are Atlanta, Cincinnatti, Charlotte, Nashville, and Seattle bigger than Toronto? They all had a higher average attendance than Toronto did in MLS, some of them by a lot. What about all the USL teams that outdraw our highest attended CPL teams? How about attendance at Gold Cup games hosted in US cities vs the couple times it has happened in Canada. Maybe we have more registered players per capita, or maybe TV ratings here and there are higher per capita in Canada. I remember years ago TV ratings were a talking point about how the sport is more popular in Canada than USA, but I thought it was probably more a case of Toronto and Montreal having a bigger percentage of Canada's population than any 1 American city does, so when only the local fanbase watches a game it seems like it's more popular here.

The ranking of Soccer in term of what people say they actively follow is essentially second, in a statistic tie with Basketball. In the US Soccer has managed to pass the NHL and will most likely pass Baseball soonish but it has some work to get there and it is unlikely to threaten the top two anytime soon.

I'll admit I don't have solid evidence of it but I'd also argue that the old style disdain you could see in good chunk of both countries toward the sport has disapeared far more clearly and completely in Canadian culture, while its still being phased out in the US.

As to your point that the picture is different for local fanbase, I agree and that was exactly my point. The main issue of the CPL, and of the three Canadian MLS clubs for that matter, isn't that we don't have enough interest in Soccer. Its that too many Soccer fans prefer Soccer from elsewhere to Canadian soccer. The remedy to that isn't a world cup in Canada, as fun as that will be. Its for Canadian soccer to be successful on and off the pitch and to climb higher in the international foodchain then it currently is.

[red card]

There has been a World Cup bump ever since the first one was on tv in Canada back in 1982. But it's incremental rather than a boom. Hosting it helps to add 2 or 3 increments rather than just 1. 

But the bump is fragmented across many soccer properties with many of it not of Canadian origin. Many also just stick with national team football which usually doesn't involve Canada. Only a few filter to club football that is usually based in another continent. 

While the vitriol against soccer has dropped off in Canada, it doesn't mean a significant portion of the population has been introduced to the sport. In a Abacus survey pre Qatar, the Big Fans of soccer in Canada was only at 12% with another 28% as casuals. This ranked 5th behind hockey, football, basketball & baseball. Pre-covid, after peaking in the previous decade, youth soccer participation rates were falling for both genders.

The biggest bump for Canadian soccer has come from delivering on the pitch. Qualifying for 86 helped to launch CSL. Unlike in men's football, CWNT's performance at the Olympics has led them to being the main focal point for women's football in Canada and a coming soon new domestic league. Their so-so performance at WWC 15 didn't lead to much dividends which could be the same scenario if the men don't advance out of their group in 2026.

You can even say TFC's successful launch off the pitch was boosted a bit by Italy winning in 2006. But main credit goes to their execution in tapping into 2nd gen football followers who were the most hungry in watching local football if there was enough overlaps with their overseas football culture.

 

[top cheese]

NL has a really passionate soccer community but the costs of operating a team there wouldn't be sustainable.  

[Aird25]

47 minutes ago, top cheese said:

NL has a really passionate soccer community but the costs of operating a team there wouldn't be sustainable.  

Because travel costs are too high? I gather rent is more manageable than some cities in the country

[Unnamed Trialist]

Could someone just list the top 25 metropolitan areas in order and explain the demographics of each city properly, so we can have this discussion about expansion in function of population for the 37th time in the last 5 years? 

I'm on the edge of my seat anytime the most recent Canada Census figures are cited.