CPL new teams speculation

[shermanator]

20 hours ago, Kingston said:

I think the best short(ish) terms goals would look something like get back into Edmonton in a viable way, expand to Quebec City, and move York to KW or London.  That should give us ten teams with reasonable chances of financial success.  

I think CPL needs to forget about Edmonton for a bit. FC Edmonton was such a spectacular failure that near the end it was almost salting the Earth to ensure that pro soccer couldn't grow there ever again. Any prospective new ownership group needs to not only build a proper stadium but put in a significant effort to re-engage the supporter base and youth clubs who were put off by FC Edmonton. Edmonton shows up for the big events but has failed time and time again to support pro soccer.

IMO places like Saskatoon, Quebec City or Kelowna make a lot more sense in the short term as they don't have the scars of failed pro clubs nor do they have the competition for sports dollars in the summer months. Of course they all lack a suitable stadium just like everywhere else in this country except maybe Moncton.

That doesn't mean Edmonton itself can't work but I think there needs to be some time to heal. Maybe there will be a bit of a grassroots movement in supporting League1 Alberta starting this year and they can build off that.

[jonovision]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

Sales of an MLS team would almost certainly start from the point of keeping them in their current location, just with different owners, not immediately moving the franchise elsewhere. Franchise relocation is the last resort of most leagues.

I think the calculus is different when is it a predominanly American league with a handful of Canadian teams (see history of NBA, NHL, MLB).

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Winnipeg got the Jets back so it hasn't been one-way traffic.

[Watchmen]

1 hour ago, jonovision said:

I think the calculus is different when is it a predominanly American league with a handful of Canadian teams (see history of NBA, NHL, MLB).

I think it depends on what value MLS sees in retaining the 3 biggest markets in Canada.

[Watchmen]

I'm seeing a lot comments about how "escalating salaries mean Montreal and Vancouver can't keep up", but honestly there's a number of American teams that wouldn't be able to keep up either. The "salary escalations" would only really come if the league decides to shift its mentality from "parity" to more like the rest of the world. And while they consider to tinker with the rules, they also just added Saputo to the major ownership committee (of which Kerfoot is already a part of) this past off season. I don't think salaries are shooting up as much as anyone thinks (in the short term).

[narduch]

37 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Winnipeg got the Jets back so it hasn't been one-way traffic.

And they are already threatening to take them away again

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

Spending going way up and it will be tough for Canadian teams to keep up.

Toronto FC spends the second-most of any MLS team, and obviously MLSE, which has NHL and NBA teams with colossal payrolls (and profits) isn’t going to struggle to spend money.

Montreal and Vancouver aren’t as rich, but again, even if that started to become a problem that generally just means bringing in more investors.

1 hour ago, shermanator said:

IMO places like Saskatoon, Quebec City or Kelowna make a lot more sense in the short term as they don't have the scars of failed pro clubs nor do they have the competition for sports dollars in the summer months.

Saskatoon and Kelowna are both on the smaller side among available cities — both would be noticeably smaller than the current smallest CPL city.

1 hour ago, jonovision said:

I think the calculus is different when is it a predominanly American league with a handful of Canadian teams (see history of NBA, NHL, MLB).

It’s not, really. Teams have only moved when there weren’t any adequate owners interested in keeping the team where it was (plus stadium issues, with respect to the Expos).

[Aird25]

2 hours ago, Kingston said:

Bison44's idea appears to be that a switch to the CPL would be appealing to Montreal because they could translate their large existing fan and player bases to the new league and thereby become a super club.

Montreal spent $17 million (US) on salaries last year.

The cap could be raised but that would apply to everyone and be nowhere near what Montreal spends now.

So even if the fan base came over, I don't see how Montreal gets to spend enough to keep their players and become a super club. 

I realize that. They would be operating on a reduced scale in terms of spending and revenue. I don't think they would need to spend $17 million to become a CPL super club though. Even if they spent a third of that, I don't know how many ownership groups could compete at this stage. Most don't even have stadiums that would allow for them to compete financially. I imagine they would lose some of their star players, particularly the DPs, but I think they'd easily be able to retain and attract enough talent to make them one of the better clubs in the league considering their longstanding connection to the city and Canadian soccer. Their attendance may drop. By how much, I don't know, maybe back down to USL levels, but I imagine having them in the league would increase attendance in other cities as well. If they were offered a payout. I have no clue if the owners would be interested in that, but a buyout from MLS and reduced costs might be appealing at some point. 

[narduch]

Interesting debate overall. 

Apparently MLSE have reigned in the spending at TFC. Not allowing them to sign a big name 3rd DP.

Even CF Montreal, I might be a bit worried about Saputo caring to much about Bologna these days. He has moved his family to that city and they are on the verge of qualifying for Champions League. 

[Kingston]

2 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

I realize that. They would be operating on a reduced scale in terms of spending and revenue. I don't think they would need to spend $17 million to become a CPL super club though. Even if they spent a third of that, I don't know how many ownership groups could compete at this stage. 

This is true but, whatever the exact amount is, I don't see the CPL working that way.  They aren't going to just let one team spend several multiples of the cap that all the other teams have to play by.

My main point is that there's no way to fit the existing MLS teams into the CPL in anything like their current form.  And if they aren't in something like their current form, we only lose by turning them into CPL teams.

[Kingston]

2 minutes ago, narduch said:

Apparently MLSE have reigned in the spending at TFC. Not allowing them to sign a big name 3rd DP.

The mistake they made was in overpaying for Insigne and Bernardeschi.  They could have had players with similar production for far less than the ~$21 million those two draw.  It doesn't matter to the cap hit but it does to the team's ability to sign another big name DP.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

29 minutes ago, Kingston said:

...we only lose by turning them into CPL teams.

...that can't sustain the merit-based academy systems that developed a huge portion of the players that currently play in CanPL even though that's seldom mentioned. We'll see if Jon Conway is still waxing lyrical about his past interactions with CanPL players during his TFC Academy years in future weeks on Onesoccer.

[MtlMario]

On 4/28/2024 at 1:40 PM, Colonel Green said:

For people bringing up Moncton as a comparable for Halifax, it's really not. Moncton is approximately one-third the size of Halifax and doesn't have nearly the same corporate/economic muscle. New Brunswick in general is an issue for pro sports because its total population is theoretically large enough for a team but it doesn't have one big city at the center of everything, it has three geographically disparate small ones.

Canada has fifteen metro areas with a population above 300,000 (eighteen above 200,000):

1. Toronto [MLS/CPL]
2. Montreal [MLS]
3. Vancouver [MLS/CPL]
4. Calgary [CPL]
5. Edmonton
6. Ottawa-Gatineau [CPL]
7. Winnipeg [CPL]
8. Quebec City
9. Hamilton [CPL]
10. Kitchener
11. London
12. Victoria [CPL]
13. Halifax [CPL]
14. Oshawa
15. Windsor

Saskatchewan's two major cities are #16 and 18, in the 220-260 range. Kelowna, which is also frequently discussed, is #20 at around 180,000.

To me, while you should obviously be willing to listen to any investor groups that are seriously interested, the cities in the top 15 that don't have a team are where the league should be focusing your energy. Botching the Edmonton team situation, in particular, was such a debacle. The continued inability to get anything going in Quebec City is also rather discouraging when you consider both its size and the lack of competition; it's the most underserved sports market in the whole country.

Where's Laval on that list with 400k?

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Regarded as part of Montreal is almost certainly the answer given "metro areas" rather than municipalities are listed.

[Watchmen]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

The mistake they made was in overpaying for Insigne and Bernardeschi.  They could have had players with similar production for far less than the ~$21 million those two draw.  It doesn't matter to the cap hit but it does to the team's ability to sign another big name DP.

I suspect that MLSE is taking the approach of "clean up the mess that's there, then we'll look to provide more funding". They know Herdman has stepped in to a difficult situation and there's no point throwing more good money after bad right now. Plus, I'm sure there's a certain amount of "let's see what Herdman can do in his first club head coaching stint before we open the coffers to him."

[Kingston]

And, in fairness, they are one of the top spending teams in the league.  It's not like they're trying to nickel and dime their way to success.  They've just often been bad at allocating those resources.

[Bison44]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

My main point is that there's no way to fit the existing MLS teams into the CPL in anything like their current form.  And if they aren't in something like their current form, we only lose by turning them into CPL teams.

Of course not, they cant stay the same (roster, fanbase, payroll etc) and we do lose big time if they turned into CPL teams. We need need bigger clubs, more clubs up and down the pyramid, more everything, but I am worried that it wont be some sort of option one way or the other. More like we'll be hoping joey doesnt turn his back on CDN soccer totally after getting priced out of MLS and letting the team move to INDY. (And we know he already is talking about the squeeze, losses etc).  If CPL is still around (thats for you ozzie) you might still try and make an omlete with smashed eggs, Stad Saputo, the soccer base in montreal.  

[Kingston]

8 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Of course not, they cant stay the same (roster, fanbase, payroll etc) and we do lose big time if they turned into CPL teams. We need need bigger clubs, more clubs up and down the pyramid, more everything, but I am worried that it wont be some sort of option one way or the other. More like we'll be hoping joey doesnt turn his back on CDN soccer totally after getting priced out of MLS and letting the team move to INDY. (And we know he already is talking about the squeeze, losses etc).  If CPL is still around (thats for you ozzie) you might still try and make an omlete with smashed eggs, Stad Saputo, the soccer base in montreal.  

Montreal (mainly Saputo) is a bit of a weird case.  It's roughly mid-range in terms of population for an MLS market and has decent support.  Despite this, Saputo puts in relatively few resources and constantly cries poor.  I think it has more to do with the owner than the market.  The market should be able to hold its own in the league.

[Aird25]

3 hours ago, Kingston said:

This is true but, whatever the exact amount is, I don't see the CPL working that way.  They aren't going to just let one team spend several multiples of the cap that all the other teams have to play by.

That's not what I was suggesting. The cap would obviously have to be raised for everyone.

3 hours ago, Kingston said:

My main point is that there's no way to fit the existing MLS teams into the CPL in anything like their current form.  And if they aren't in something like their current form, we only lose by turning them into CPL teams.

I don't think the revenue would be there to support the current spending, and I don't think there would be as much parity. I don't agree that we only lose though. By having the 3 biggest teams in the country in the league, the level overall would be raised significantly. The league would likely receive significantly more attention and the level would be raised for all of the other teams. This would all likely lead to additional interest from other investors and more teams.

[narduch]

Too bad these guys aren't investing in a CPL team.

 

 

[phil03]

@Bison44I haven't missed it so much as deliberately not mentioned it as I believe this is even a bigger longshot then other scenarios. 

There is no sources inside the MLS, Impact or Whitecaps who ever mentioned that possibility, nor is their any media who truly follow them closely who did. Both the Saputos and the Whitecaps ownership group actually have decently deep pockets by MLS standards and while they haven't been too enthusiastic on spending to build championship contenders they have duly followed the rise in player bills in the league as much as they needed to keep their teams competitives and there is no signs this is about to change. Moreover, any looses they take is likely to be more then covered by rise in valuation for the foreseeable future. 

On Saputo specifically, sources close to the Impact are more or less unanimous in saying that pleading poverty is part of negociations with the city around the stadium's renovations and for all that he is not as interested in pushing for championships as we would like him to be he does, by all accounts, still very much see the team and his rise to MLS as the future first line in his obituary, so to speak, and isn't about to abandon it if there is any other option. All the complaints about his spending level never put in question that the club should stay in MLS but were instead aimed at making Saputo spend more to, at the very least, make more formidable attempts at championships when we are at the end of our development, not to let windows of opportunity like 2022 pass again.

As for the MLS specifically, keeping a sizable Canadian beachead is definitely handy for their ambition for future growth...

At least the CPL and the CSA have given signs they want the three MLS clubs to come in eventually but in this scenario none of the actors (the league and the clubs) have ever given any signs they are thinking along these lines...

All the chats about this came from OneSoccer jumping to the conclusions they want to be true and, frankly, tending to have rather Toronto-centric pundits, leading media gravitating around it to follow suit in some cases.

I'd also say that if this scenario would somehow happen and some phoenix versions of the Impact and the Whitecaps would come to be ods are their ownerships would put a similar accomodation package then the one I alluded to in my previous post as a precondition to get into the venture. That's probably the minumimum that would be needed to get fanbases grieving and angered at no longer being in MLS to follow their clubs into CPL in sufficient numbers for them to keep at least some of their MLS versions' mojo and for the owners to not fear ending up with difficulties like the one York United face right now. I would also bet good money the federation would lean pretty heavily on the CPL to make it happen too...

So we'd be looking at a scenario not all that dissimilar to the one I described in my previous posts all things considered. With former MLS clubs even more weakened but probably still dominant in CPL, more cooperative ownership groups and their fans in general probably even less civil toward the league and other clubs. Sure, on one hand, the CPL wouldn't look as directly responsible for what happened but on the other they'd probably be less willing to listen to their organizations when they would told them to be more respectful of other clubs due to ownership decisions having played a key role in the shift from MLS to CPL to begin with.

3 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Regarded as part of Montreal is almost certainly the answer given "metro areas" rather than municipalities are listed.

I mean, if we are talking about Metro area as a whole then Moncton is just 10K below Kelowna and likely to pass it pretty soon...

 

[K Edgar]

57 minutes ago, narduch said:

Too bad these guys aren't investing in a CPL team.

 

 

someone remain Ryan Reynolds he is Canadian -- buy a Canadian Premier League team already!

[Aird25]

1 hour ago, K Edgar said:

someone remain Ryan Reynolds he is Canadian -- buy a Canadian Premier League team already!

I saw him in Langford this weekend. The BC rivalry is about to heat up

[jdheid]

10 hours ago, shermanator said:

I think CPL needs to forget about Edmonton for a bit. FC Edmonton was such a spectacular failure that near the end it was almost salting the Earth to ensure that pro soccer couldn't grow there ever again. Any prospective new ownership group needs to not only build a proper stadium but put in a significant effort to re-engage the supporter base and youth clubs who were put off by FC Edmonton. Edmonton shows up for the big events but has failed time and time again to support pro soccer.

IMO places like Saskatoon, Quebec City or Kelowna make a lot more sense in the short term as they don't have the scars of failed pro clubs nor do they have the competition for sports dollars in the summer months. Of course they all lack a suitable stadium just like everywhere else in this country except maybe Moncton.

That doesn't mean Edmonton itself can't work but I think there needs to be some time to heal. Maybe there will be a bit of a grassroots movement in supporting League1 Alberta starting this year and they can build off that.

As someone who had season tickets in 2019, tried to drag anyone I could to Eddies games and has a framed copy of FC Edmonton's final game notes in my office, I hate to agree with this. The appetite isn't there. It's nearly inconceivable when you see the scope and scale of youth soccer in the city, but it just isn't there. A new stadium would definitely help, but I don't know if any uptick would be sustainable. We're a  hockey town, and even with the expectation of a population of 2 million in the next 20 years or so, I don't know if that will ever change.

I'm hoping the BTB crew can grow their League 1 team to something bigger. They seem to have more out of the box ideas than the "establishment" does, but who knows how long that might take.

 

 

[Ivan]

I think any new Edmonton team needs Alphonso Davies involved in an ownership group. Would definitely generate interest, but have no idea if he's the least bit interested.