Kingston Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The season is still a way off but closer than we think. Time to start speculating on what we might see this year following two solid years of attendance growth in most markets. Before we get in to that, however, one thought. We all know that teams may report different attendance numbers depending on whether they look at turnstile counts, tickets sold, or tickets distributed. Some teams may even inflate a number here or there. How about this year, we just take that as a given? We can all assume that, even though the reported numbers are the best data we have, they aren't perfect - and then we can move on. Let's just skip all the "it looked like more/less on TV" and the associated vitriol and name calling. With that humble request in mind, what are your predictions for attendance this year? Kent, Raven, Ivan and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bison44 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 My prediction is the same as last year, one guy will come on here and do his best to dispute, question and cast shade on everything but Halifax numbers. Good on you for trying though. kacbru, johnyb, Ansem and 8 others 6 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, Bison44 said: My prediction is the same as last year, one guy will come on here and do his best to dispute, question and cast shade on everything but Halifax numbers. Good on you for trying though. So trying to keep things on topic, then, what are your predictions for attendance? Either the league over all or team by team? Or even for the upcoming CONCACAF Champions Cup matches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ansem Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Overall increase compared to last year Kingston, Metro, K Edgar and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bison44 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'm hoping for a nice double digit increase for everyone (except I dont think Halifax can fit more people in there). CHampions cup? They always seem to be weird times, against clubs the average fan doesnt know and tend to be poor attendance. Kingston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Bison44 said: I'm hoping for a nice double digit increase for everyone (except I dont think Halifax can fit more people in there). CHampions cup? They always seem to be weird times, against clubs the average fan doesnt know and tend to be poor attendance. Halifax drew 5854 last year in a 6500 seat stadium. If they sold out every ticket to every game it would be just about a 10% increase. But unlikely. Does anyone know the status of their permanent stadium plan? For the Champions Cup, we at least have the advantage that two of the better drawing CPL teams will be representing the league. I'm hoping Forge will do well with a Mexican opponent. I'm not sure how Cavalry will do against an MLS team with the game moved to Victoria. I suppose Pacific fans could choose to embrace it but that would be more hope than expectation. Edited January 22 by Kingston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aird25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, Kingston said: Halifax drew 5854 last year in a 6500 seat stadium. If they sold out every ticket to every game it would be just about a 10% increase. But unlikely. Does anyone know the status of their permanent stadium plan? For the Champions Cup, we at least have the advantage that two of the better drawing CPL teams will be representing the league. I'm hoping Forge will do well with a Mexican opponent. I'm not sure how Cavalry will do against an MLS team with the game moved to Victoria. I suppose Pacific fans could choose to embrace it but that would be more hope than expectation. The Whitecaps - Tigres match is already down to GA tickets only NVsoccer and Bison44 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 10% increase in attendance. 20% if Valour can be good Edited January 23 by SpursFlu longlugan, K Edgar and johnyb 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'm going to guess compared to last year. Ottawa up, Cavalry up, Forge will be interesting because last season was so much higher than the previous couple years so it will be interesting to see if that season was a blip or a sign of more to come... since they won it all again, I'll guess Forge go up again. HFX I think even (plus or minus 100 fans per game kind of territory), Pacific up a bit, Valour I expect to be bad again and down in attendance, Vancouver down because it's their sophomore year. York United is another interesting one, probably mostly flat but we will see if the new ownership can do anything to draw more fans out. Overall up league wide. Hopefully the league can return to 4000+ per game for the first time since year 1. Year 1 it was 4286 per game. Kingston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzie_the_parrot Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It's pretty much a given that average announced attendance across the league will go up for PR spin reasons regardless of what actually happens with tickets scanned. What happens in actual terms with York, Valour, Vancouver and Pacific will be of greatest importance to the short to medium term health of the league. Stanley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narduch Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aird25 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said: It's pretty much a given that average announced attendance across the league will go up for PR spin reasons regardless of what actually happens with tickets scanned. What happens in actual terms with York, Valour, Vancouver and Pacific will be of greatest importance to the short to medium term health of the league. Might as well close the thread then NVsoccer, narduch, red card and 4 others 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 My predictions: Halifax (averaged 5854 in 2023) - flat because the stadium is full too often to offset the odd bad weather crowd Forge (5318) - 5600 as they lock in the gains from last season and add a bit more Ottawa (4959) - 5500 as they reach the Fury's best year by drawing bigger crowds for their more important games Cavalry (4090) - 4400 with further steady growth Pacific (3241) - flat because they seem to have reached what the market will give without major changes Valour (3220) - flat as I don't see much going on in Winnipeg to change things Vancouver (2788) - 2400 which was about what they drew if you remove the big first ever game crowd York (1242) - flat as the new ownership creates just enough interest to not see a decline BigBadBorto, Kent and Shway 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdheid Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Kingston said: My predictions: Halifax (averaged 5854 in 2023) - flat because the stadium is full too often to offset the odd bad weather crowd Forge (5318) - 5600 as they lock in the gains from last season and add a bit more Ottawa (4959) - 5500 as they reach the Fury's best year by drawing bigger crowds for their more important games Cavalry (4090) - 4400 with further steady growth Pacific (3241) - flat because they seem to have reached what the market will give without major changes Valour (3220) - flat as I don't see much going on in Winnipeg to change things Vancouver (2788) - 2400 which was about what they drew if you remove the big first ever game crowd York (1242) - flat as the new ownership creates just enough interest to not see a decline Really hope you're wrong with your VFC and YU predictions (I'm sure you are too). I'll predict that the Mexicans have some cool ideas and the average climbs to 2000 at York and I think VFC will be much more competitive and get to 3000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said: It's pretty much a given that average announced attendance across the league will go up for PR spin reasons regardless of what actually happens with tickets scanned. What happens in actual terms with York, Valour, Vancouver and Pacific will be of greatest importance to the short to medium term health of the league. A simple yes or no would be fantastic. Do you think the ratio of real attendance to padded attendance is shrinking year after year? Like if year one the actual attendance was 90% of the announced attendance, then year 3 was 80%, then 70% in year 4, etc? One would assume that's what you are implying with comments above, but I just want to make sure we are all clear on the math. If your answer is yes, then that's fine. If your answer is no, then you need to rethink your comment about announced attendance growing every year despite real attendances dropping every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoccMan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 On 1/22/2024 at 4:51 PM, Bison44 said: I'm hoping for a nice double digit increase for everyone (except I dont think Halifax can fit more people in there). CHampions cup? They always seem to be weird times, against clubs the average fan doesnt know and tend to be poor attendance. Both CPL teams are playing teams in the Champions Cup that if the average fan doesn’t know then who are these average fans that follow CPL teams? One is playing a top Mexican team the other is playing an MLS team . I’m not saying they have to know the teams , but I think even the average fan has an idea what the MLS is and what the Mexican league is in this day and age . The real thing that will affect attendance for these CPL teams in the Champions Cup is the weather mainly for Forge and location of the home game unfortunately for Cavalry. red card, Kent, Shway and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzie_the_parrot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) 9 hours ago, SoccMan said: Both CPL teams are playing teams in the Champions Cup that if the average fan doesn’t know then who are these average fans that follow CPL teams? One is playing a top Mexican team... ...who even had an affiliated MLS team that played regularly in Canada at one point. The whole narrative for some of these guys is that CanPL means that Bob and Doug McKenzie have finally discovered soccer basically. When the league launched David Clanachan even felt a need to say that CanPL would have a tougher brand of soccer that Canadians can respect whatever that was supposed to mean. First and second generation immigrants who have followed soccer closely one way or another all their lives including a significant Latin American demographic when the Golden Horseshoe is involved don't fit into that Tim Hortons commercial version of Canada. Edited January 24 by Ozzie_the_parrot Aird25, longlugan and CDNFootballer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bison44 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Hmmm, he almost had the trifecta there, Bob and Doug Hoser sterotype, Tim hortons slam..just missing a Don Cherry reference. Bonus points for working "2nd gen immigrants" in there, its nice to get that into every post. Dude you are on fire today!! CDNFootballer, Stanley and longlugan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treppy2 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It was interesting to see this article with a list of 2023-24 average attendances in European leagues to see where the CPL would fit in: https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/comparing-saudi-pro-league-attendances-with-europes-x-biggest-leagues Looks like the average CPL match would attract more spectators than the average match in Ireland but fewer than the average match in Norway. Seems about right to be grouped with those countries. It was surprising to see how low the average attendance was in the Balkans (Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia) – all significantly lower than the CPL. Kent, Bison44, K Edgar and 2 others 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBadBorto Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) Here are my predictions. Thanks to Kingston for last year numbers. My prediction is in line with his except for York.. Overall I think there will be an increease in the league and we will have 3 teams > 5,000 average Halifax (5854 in 2023) - 5,900. Essentially flat. I'm a bit concerned that season tickets sales and renewals aren't going so well. When I renewed mine, there were a lot of empty spaces.. Hopefully the success of 2023 and playoff excitement will see us exceed 6,000 finally Forge (5318). Increase to 5,500 based on 2023 success Ottawa (4959) Increase to 5,500. Lots of great momentum in Ottawa. I wouldn't be surprised if they overtake Halifax and go above 6k Cavalry (4090). Slight increase to 4,200 Pacific (3241). Slight increase to 3,400 Valour (3220). Slight decrease to 3,100. Stadium too big and it doesn't seem like there is much excitement for the team (hope I'm wrong) Vancouver (2788). Decrease to 2,000 I'm concerned about Vancouver. I know we don't like to discuss but it does seems they padded their numbers heavily in many games.. York (1242). Increase to 2,000. I'm optimistic the new owners will have some good marketing ideas and we will see positive momentum Edited January 25 by BigBadBorto johnyb and Kingston 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aird25 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 A tiny bit of advertising seems to make a massive difference in Victoria. It's hard to predict in light of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narduch Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Of the 5 CCC games this week, Forge had the highest attendance. K Edgar, johnyb, Kent and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingston Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 (edited) Great to see this level of attendance even though the game was played out of season and in the cold. I should add I was also happy to see the attendance of 5763 in Victoria for the Whitecaps "home" game. Hopefully the crowd also decides to come out and support Calgary there in two weeks. Edited February 8 by Kingston narduch, Cheeta, NVsoccer and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, Kingston said: I should add I was also happy to see the attendance of 5763 in Victoria for the Whitecaps "home" game. Hopefully the crowd also decides to come out and support Calgary there in two weeks. My buddy and I were discussing this after the Whitecaps game. We think it’s not likely. Orlando’s not a draw and Cavalry are not particularly liked here. Whitecaps on the other hand are only really a rival when they play PFC. That said, to our eyes it was a very different crowd yesterday even aside from all the Mexican supporters. Some PFC merch, but not a lot of faces we normally see at all the PFC games. Maybe those people show up for Cavalry because they aren’t really CPL-aware and don’t think of them as rivals. Who knows? Still don’t think it will be the same. Certainly we won’t see every single ex-pat Floridian show up the way the Mexican fans did last night, lol. They really brought the atmosphere, I have to say. BTW, the lines to get in were ridiculous. There have been sellouts at Starlight before and they’ve managed to get everyone in by kickoff, but they were wanding everyone for weapons and the lines were 45 minutes to an hour long. Some people missed almost the entire first half waiting to get in. Total gong show. We were there shortly after 6, saw the line at the west end, walked to the east side where it was the same and ended up watching the first 5-10 minutes on the screen above us on Langford Lanes. Apart from that it was a great game. Was there to be won for Whitecaps and but for a questionable VAR ruling they should have. Schopf was in an offside position and there is the slightest of nudges on the Tigres defender as he plays the ball but hardly anything. I am assuming they ruled he interfered with the play? He definitely didn’t obscure the keepers view on the subsequent shot. johnyb, Kingston, masster and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narduch Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looking at Ticketmaster it doesn't look like the Cavalry match is selling well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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