Cyle Larin

[Dub Narcotic]

1 hour ago, Brethers8 said:

The fuck does that mean?

Not meaning to be rude, I just genuinely don't get it. Expected goals is something that isn't a thing in the UK so whoosh over my head it goes

I guess Google isn't a huge thing in the UK either, not meaning to be rude. Analytics has been a huge thing in the UK for a while now both on the betting and club side, even if it hasn't hit the more mainstream outlets as a matter of course.

@Unnamed Trialist,  basketball is the most sophisticated sport to use stats outside of baseball. NBA GMs like Daryl Morey are regulars at analytics conferences like Sloane and most serious fans are conversant with advanced metrics like PER. In fact, the whole game of basketball has changed in the last few years because of advanced stats: almost all teams are now built around three point shooting and free throws while slow big men are basically extinct. All this happened because of analytics work and now the most advanced teams combine statistical analytics with the 360-degree video coverage they get with the SportsVu system for an amazing level of insight.

Hockey is getting pretty advanced as well, our own @Benjamin Massey used to do (maybe still does) a lot of analytics-based blogging on the Oilers. 

[theaub]

Baseball is obviously the king of stats here, but yeah basketball and hockey don't trail too far behind.  The big thing with both of them (and this applies to soccer as well) is that for baseball the majority of 'advanced stats' (ie WAR/FIP/wOBA etc) can be calculated easily for previous years since all the data is available.  But no one was charting shots or zone starts etc in the NHL in the 1980's so a lot of the mainstream advanced stats like CF60/CF Rel/PDO/Zone Starts etc have less than 10 years of data on them.  No doubt they are being used though (Stan Bowman was a huge proponent of analytics from his days of being Director of Hockey Ops inn Chicago and obviously its worked pretty well for them going forward).

But yeah...advanced stats are definitely a thing in the UK.  Hell the guy who wrote the article I posted above works in analytics in London.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by theaub

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Dub Narcotic said:

I guess Google isn't a huge thing in the UK either, not meaning to be rude. 

You could have at least explained that "215" was supposed to say "2015". I am at least a little familiar with expected goals and I had to read your numbers several times before I could make a good guess at what you were trying to say.

Even now I am questioning them. I knew that Larin has a higher shooting percentage than everyone that takes a meaningful number of shots, but it seems extreme that his expected goals would be 2.16 last year when he actually scored something like 13 goals. Is that number supposed to be for the whole season?

[Blackdude]

4 hours ago, dsqpr said:

Early nomination for idiotic post of the year.

I'm surprised those thick Europeans even know how to add, much less interpret stats.

Although, it must be said, that even they could work out that if the expected number of goals for a forward over an entire season is 2.16 then either that statistic is nonsense or the forward is fucking useless.

Early nomination for idotic post of the year

I'm surprised that dsqpr doesn't know how to interpret stats.

goals: Actual number of goals scored excluding penalties (FOr Larin it was 14 and 17)
expeceted goals: Number of goals a player is expected to score based on his shot location. (For Larin it was 11.82 and 10.45)
goals-expected goals: goals scored excluding penalties MINUS number of goals a player is expected to score based on his shot location. (For Larin it was 2.18 and 6.55)

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by Blackdude

[Shway]

1 hour ago, Blackdude said:

Early nomination for idotic post of the year

I'm surprised that dsqpr doesn't know how to interpret stats.

goals: Actual number of goals scored excluding penalties (FOr Larin it was 14 and 17)
 

Question for my confusion. Does 14 stand for goals scored and goals projected was 17?

[Blackdude]

13 minutes ago, Jahinho Guerro said:

Question for my confusion. Does 14 stand for goals scored and goals projected was 17?

First number is 2016. Second number is 2015. I had a couple of typos for the 2016 numbers, but it's not that big of a difference

[Unnamed Trialist]

Expected goals is a pretty stupid stat, IMO, it give me absolutely nothing, personally, as a fan. And I don't think it gives any fan of soccer anything either.

I'm probably the person here who has seen Messi most, since he was a kid, and his stats are through the roof of course. But I also know that in one WC final and two Copa Americas, as well as a final day of a league two years ago at home vs. At Madrid, he could not get one damn goal to win a trophy. Nor has he been the sole and unique game-breaker in any of the Champions League wins he was part of. You can't stat that.

Betting is another question. Right now you can get only 10-1 odds on Barça qualifying over PSG after losing 4-0 in Paris. But you can get 14-1 or better for any of the results needed (5-0, 6-1, even 4-0 and penalties) and Suárez scoring just once. But I am not sure you have to know expected goals stats to take that bet, any dolt can figure out those are better odds. 

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by Unnamed Trialist

[jpg75]

3 hours ago, Blackdude said:

Early nomination for idotic post of the year

I'm surprised that dsqpr doesn't know how to interpret stats.

goals: Actual number of goals scored excluding penalties (FOr Larin it was 14 and 17)
expeceted goals: Number of goals a player is expected to score based on his shot location. (For Larin it was 11.82 and 10.45)
goals-expected goals: goals scored excluding penalties MINUS number of goals a player is expected to score based on his shot location. (For Larin it was 2.18 and 6.55)

 

Well then this actually shows that people like dpqsr and brethers were right. Dub Narcotic posted that the expected goals were 2.16 and 6.55 for 2015 and 2016, when in fact he should have posted that those numbers were the goal to expected goal differential.  

edit: I just re-read his post, he did write "goals - expected goals" which i never caught the first 3 times i read it because i did not realize the "-" was minus sign. When dealing with a new audience that may not be familiar with whether it is a statistical naming convention or formula a brief explanation could have alleviated some confusion. 

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by jpg75

[apbsmith]

On ‎12‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 10:26 PM, dsqpr said:

Unfortunately there is a lot of very general discussion in that thread, unrelated to the MLS Rookie record, that is lost from view by creating a new thread. Would it not have been better to just rename the other one?

Anyway, here is a link to that previous thread:

http://www.thevoyageurs.org/forums/topic/28600-congrats-to-cyle-larin-on-mls-rookie-record/

There is also some general Larin discussion in this thread, some of it related to his scoring stats:

http://www.thevoyageurs.org/forums/topic/29706-we-need-a-finisher/

 

How do I change the title of MLS rookie record thread? This thread has already been boarder line derailed. I only made it through the first few posts and when I saw the words baseball and basketball in posts I moved on.

 

[apbsmith]

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 6:48 PM, dsqpr said:

If only he were that prolific when he plays for Canada.

My take is that CONCACAF is a higher level than MLS and he has yet to make the transition. With a move to Europe he might get the chance play at a higher level week in and week out and perhaps make the step up.

It also didn't help in our last 2 qualifying games he played 4-5 games in 12 days with 5000+km of travel. (not very ideal)

I do agree though, I wish he scored more for the Red & White also. I am sure he does as well.

Edited March 7, 2017 by apbsmith

[Kent]

Thanks @Blackdude for pointing out he was talking about "Goals - Expected Goals" and not just "Expected Goals". It finally makes sense. I obviously didn't figure that out either (on first reading it looked to me like he made a mistake).

[Obinna]

Hard to find out what any of this has to do with Cyle Larin.

Now that the GC schedule is out, I think we can all collectively begin to dream of Larin wrecking havoc on Honduras, Costa Rica and French Guinea.

He's had a strong start to the MLS season and hope he's in good form heading into the tourney. 

With Hoilett (and hopefully, Davies) feeding him service from out wide, I hope he can finally get some attacking help. 

Anyone think he'll get called into the Scotland friendly?

[kungfucious]

yes. let me help re-rail this thread back to CL. the guy licks. he scores for orlando because he gets a crapload of chances. sooner or later, a blind man in a wheelchair will have it go in off him if hes in the right spot.

that, ill give the guy credit for. just being at the right place at the right time is already a large part of being a striker. the other half obviously is finishing. to be a national team striker, u have to be leathal which we all know he isnt, and will never be. this is a je ne sais quoi attribute all the best have. they are given a sliver and able to make that into a half chance which they usually convert.

sadly... the MNT has not had that ever/since JC, AB? please please please, somebody, anybody make me eat these words.

 

[Dub Narcotic]

Yes, the stat is (Goals - Expected Goals). Larin has outperformed the average finishing level in MLS by quite a margin two years running. That could be an outlier but it likely indicates that he's a pretty good finisher, at least relative to MLS players.

[Dub Narcotic]

BTW, http://www.americansocceranalysis.com/ has the best compilation of good stats for MLS, including the xG and xA numbers, TSR ratios and etc, as well as explanations for most of the categories.

[Mister215Guy]

Larin needs to be in a much better league than MLS to really develop. Just move to any league in Europe and not stay longer in piss-poor quality MLS. Players like him shouldn't waste his talents in that league.

[matty]

1 minute ago, Mister215Guy said:

Larin needs to be in a much better league than MLS to really develop. Just move to any league in Europe and not stay longer in piss-poor quality MLS. Players like him shouldn't waste his talents in that league.

So Gibraltar is cool?

[Mister215Guy]

Just now, matty said:

So Gibraltar is cool?

He can use it as a springboard for England or Spain. He doesn't need Gibraltar. I was talking about leagues outside the top 5, like Holland, Belgium, or Swiss league.

[Kent]

3 hours ago, kungfucious said:

yes. let me help re-rail this thread back to CL. the guy licks. he scores for orlando because he gets a crapload of chances. sooner or later, a blind man in a wheelchair will have it go in off him if hes in the right spot.

that, ill give the guy credit for. just being at the right place at the right time is already a large part of being a striker. the other half obviously is finishing. to be a national team striker, u have to be leathal which we all know he isnt, and will never be. this is a je ne sais quoi attribute all the best have. they are given a sliver and able to make that into a half chance which they usually convert.

sadly... the MNT has not had that ever/since JC, AB? please please please, somebody, anybody make me eat these words.

 

AB is Alex Bunbury, and JC is John Catliff I assume. I don't remember much about Catliff so I just looked him up (apparently he scored in the first CMNT game I attended against Scotland). When he was Larin's age he had only 1 goal for Canada. Let's give Larin a bit more time.

[Keegan]

11 hours ago, kungfucious said:

yes. let me help re-rail this thread back to CL. the guy licks. he scores for orlando because he gets a crapload of chances. sooner or later, a blind man in a wheelchair will have it go in off him if hes in the right spot.

that, ill give the guy credit for. just being at the right place at the right time is already a large part of being a striker. the other half obviously is finishing. to be a national team striker, u have to be leathal which we all know he isnt, and will never be. this is a je ne sais quoi attribute all the best have. they are given a sliver and able to make that into a half chance which they usually convert.

sadly... the MNT has not had that ever/since JC, AB? please please please, somebody, anybody make me eat these words.

 

Idk what you're talking about or what player you're watching but Larin is as lethal as it gets for a striker out of Canada/USA.  He regularly converts half chances into goals.. he scores with his chest, head, both feet, inside the box.. outside the box.  He's a pure goal scorer who no team wants to see on the end of a ball anywhere near their goal.  Look at a highlight reel of the kid, the majority of goals are high class finishes.

Players miss chances.  Every single one does.. I don't care if you're Ronaldo or Pele.  Larin buries a very, very high percentage of chances and that is because of his versatility in terms of ways to score and his finishing ability.  Even his chance on the weekend, it was a great cross but an even better finish to head the ball downward and in the corner.. the keeper didn't have a chance and most strikers in this league and similar levels probably wouldn't have the foresight to make that run and finish.

32 goals in 2 pro seasons and one game.  Find me 21 year olds at any level around the world with those numbers.. you could be playing in Thailand and those numbers would raise eyebrows.  

[El Hombre]

3 hours ago, Keegan said:

Idk what you're talking about or what player you're watching but Larin is as lethal as it gets for a striker out of Canada/USA.  He regularly converts half chances into goals.. he scores with his chest, head, both feet, inside the box.. outside the box.  He's a pure goal scorer who no team wants to see on the end of a ball anywhere near their goal.  Look at a highlight reel of the kid, the majority of goals are high class finishes.

I agree with this.

For some reason I get the feeling that Larin plays with less confidence with MNT than with Orlando.  I see him pass more when he's playing for Canada, whereas with Orlando he'll take a pop from anywhere and a lot of those seem to go in.

I'm hoping it's just a matter of time before he starts feeling comfortable there and feeling like he deserves to be there before all that changes.

[Ansem]

He needs to be surrounded by more and better playmakers in the national team. We don't have a "Kaka" but hopeful that more players like Arfield and Hoilett can develop to strengthen our team.

Canada's problem was always depth, something that can't be addressed by the USSF system. We need our own league and develop our own players. Playing in USL and/or benching in MLS might be suppressing a lot of potential of Canadian players that need that playing time and make mistakes to learn and grow. Those who becomes very good and/or exceptional can be discovered and ship to Europe to further their skills and come back to help.

Depth was always our main problem. You can't win if you know that you're 1 injury or substitution away from having your team dropping drastically in quality.

Edited March 8, 2017 by Ansem

[Keegan]

37 minutes ago, El Hombre said:

I agree with this.

For some reason I get the feeling that Larin plays with less confidence with MNT than with Orlando.  I see him pass more when he's playing for Canada, whereas with Orlando he'll take a pop from anywhere and a lot of those seem to go in.

I'm hoping it's just a matter of time before he starts feeling comfortable there and feeling like he deserves to be there before all that changes.

The comparison I would make in this regard and around the world as well is that international soccer is like playoff hockey.  You might put up points all day in league play but when it comes down to a couple games where the chips are down you need to find a way to adjust because the stakes are higher and teams are focusing in on your key players.  

We don't have many good attackers so it's easy to key in on a guy like Larin especially when he's alone up top.  That was the same story for De Rosario.  It's especially difficult to be an MLS star who hasn't played anywhere else and then expect to produce at the international level.. aside from Donovan it isn't something that happens and even he had experience at big clubs overseas.  It's not that these guys don't have the confidence to shoot from distance or have a go, it's just that the opportunities aren't there as much.  With that said I do think Larin needs a bit more confidence to have a go with that quick release from outside the 18... one of those goes in and we might have 3 points.  

[shermanator]

I think with Larin, sometimes people forget that he's only turning 22 in April. He's far from a finished product at his age. Outside of Jordan Morris, who is 6 months older and has played a full season less, there is no one even remotely close to playing at his level in MLS at his age. IIRC, he's the 5th leading scorer in the league since entering behind Giovinco, Villa, Kamara and Wright-Phillips, as a 19-21 year old.

Yes, he's had some high profile misses with the national team (the blunder at the 2015 Gold Cup, the crossbar against El Salvador, hitting the side netting on a breakaway against Mexico), but I think these are exaggerated when you consider the chances he gets with the national team are few and far between.

Edited March 8, 2017 by shermanator

[Havoc88]

34 minutes ago, shermanator said:

Yes, he's had some high profile misses with the national team (the blunder at the 2015 Gold Cup, the crossbar against El Salvador, hitting the side netting on a breakaway against Mexico), but I think these are exaggerated when you consider the chances he gets with the national team are few and far between.

I would add to this, when you look at his career, he had no call-ups at the u17 or u20 (well u20 after senior team IIRC), so it's not like he had any experience playing in important international matches and tournaments. Those games are a different beast compared to week in week out domestic league performances.

The criticism a page back is weak and coming from someone who hasn't watched him regularly. Shermanator is right - the kid is 22 and far from his prime. At this point we should just be hoping he's getting regular minutes, but he's doing that and scoring at an impressive rate. I cannot imagine him not progressing to the next level and possibly another after that.