Cyle Larin

[masster]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

Bit of a tangent but this thread is already filled with them.

People here are talking about Portugal here as a potentially good landing spot for Larin. I just did a bit of digging today and found out (maybe everyone already knows this) that Portugal is actually the 4th best league in Europe according to the UEFA coefficients. People generally accept the big 4 as being Germany, Spain, England, and Italy (in no particular order), and if there is a 5th, it's probably France. But the coefficients tell a different story.

1. Germany
2. Spain
3. England
4. Portugal
5. Belgium
6. Italy
7. Netherlands
8. France

Incidentally, I was looking this up to see which players were in the highest rated leagues. Arfield obviously in England, then next is Stamatopolous in Sweden (number 16, Turkey if you are wondering is at 22).

The current top 10 ranking:
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

#	country	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	ranking	teams
1	Spain	17.714	23.000	20.214	23.928	17.000	101.856	4/ 7
2	Germany	17.928	14.714	15.857	16.428	14.285	79.212	3/ 7
3	England	16.428	16.785	13.571	14.250	13.357	74.391	2/ 7
4	Italy	14.416	14.166	19.000	11.500	12.750	71.832	1/ 6
5	France	11.750	8.500	10.916	11.083	12.750	54.999	2/ 6
6	Russia	9.750	10.416	9.666	11.500	9.200	50.532	5
7	Portugal	11.750	9.916	9.083	10.500	8.083	49.332	6
8	Ukraine	9.500	7.833	10.000	9.800	5.500	42.633	5
9	Belgium	6.500	6.400	9.600	7.400	12.100	42.000	2/ 5
10	Turkey	10.200	6.700	6.000	6.600	9.300	38.800	1/ 5

[matty]

How pissed would all of you be if some Chinese team gets him? I'd be pretty bummed

Edited March 22, 2017 by matty

[Kent]

Apologies everyone. As has been pointed out, I messed up. I didn't read closely enough and posted the final 2015 national team coefficients (used for Euro 2016 groups). Should have scrolled just a bit further down the wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient) to get the numbers I was actually looking for.

D'oh!

[Macksam]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

Some important points made in this post that I'd like to build on:

1) Portugal has a track record of exporting players directly to the top leagues, such as La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A and the English Premier League. We want Larin to ultimately arrive at one of those destinations. The downside of Belgium is that players sometimes need to take another step before landing in a top league. The downside of Scotland (well Celtic), is that they only export to the EPL. 

2) The top 2-3 teams in Portugal are arguably stronger than their counterparts in other exporting leagues (Holland, Belgium etc.). This means they often sell directly to the top clubs in the world. They also put up a fight against such clubs in the Champions League (which is probably way their players get scooped up).

 

Even though I originally listed Celtic as a decent landing spot, I've convinced myself that Portugal is probably the best destination.

Yeah, if I can add to that, they are indeed stronger considering Porto and Benfica (and a little bit of Sporting) import a lot of up and coming top talent from around the world (mainly Latin America). This is not to say Dutch and Belgian clubs don't because they do, but they don't do it to anywhere near the scale the two aforementioned Portuguese clubs do. Both Porto and Benfica invest in up and coming imports the way a Wall Street trader bets on high reward, high risk up and coming stocks on the NASDAQ, and so far they have sustained themselves really well from buying low and selling really high, which fund their team salaries that are probably double that of the big Dutch and Belgian clubs. However, one bad group of investments can derail this method really badly though. I remember PSV Eindhoven used the same strategy back around the late 90s to the mid to late 2000s, when the operation finally imploded with the last batch of guys they brought in (Edison Mendez, Diego Tardelli, etc.) failed to live up to expectations and they didn't make money off them. After that, the club slashed their team salary in half and now they concentrate on developing youth and occasionally buying young up an comers from smaller Dutch clubs. 

Edited March 22, 2017 by Macksam

[matty]

We always talk about larin moving to Europe but How would people feel about a Mexican move

[jpg75]

1 hour ago, matty said:

We always talk about larin moving to Europe but How would people feel about a Mexican move

Seems like an extra, unnecessary step to getting to Portugal. FC Porto have scooped up some top talents from Liga MX the past 5 years so why go to a big club south of the border if you can just go straight to Benfica?

[matty]

17 hours ago, jpg75 said:

Seems like an extra, unnecessary step to getting to Portugal. FC Porto have scooped up some top talents from Liga MX the past 5 years so why go to a big club south of the border if you can just go straight to Benfica?

Mexico seems to be becoming a fashionable league atm unlike Portugal which is losing it's place to France and Belgium. Mexico is also a more competitive and arguably intense league than Portugal. While it might lack a benfica or porto it has like 10 bragas and sportings.

[Fastfeet2]

I dont understand everyone talking about these "steps". If guys like Saido Berahino, Shane Long, Benik Afobe, Lucas Perez, Patrick Bamford, Abel Hernandez, are playing meaningful minutes in the premier league, Cyle is ready.

[shamrock]

If a good offer comes by, why not? If he would beat the chances and become a success in Mexico, as not many MLS-players have, he would be able to skip Portugal all together. If a good offer comes by, why not? It sure is better than MLS ATM. 

[Fastfeet2]

And as Defoe and Chicharito have shown, if you can do it over here, you can do it over there.

[shamrock]

Just now, Fastfeet2 said:

I dont understand everyone talking about these "steps". If guys like Saido Berahino, Shane Long, Benik Afobe, Lucas Perez, Patrick Bamford, Abel Hernandez, are playing meaningful minutes in the premier league, Cyle is ready.

He might. But the thing is, he would come there as a nobody. EPL clubs have literally dozens of young talents, but they also spend huge sums on transfers. If you spend like 20 mil on someone, you'd give him just a little more time to show what he can do. If you come as a nobody, you might be lucky to get a couple of sub minutes. 

[Fastfeet2]

11 minutes ago, shamrock said:

He might. But the thing is, he would come there as a nobody. EPL clubs have literally dozens of young talents, but they also spend huge sums on transfers. If you spend like 20 mil on someone, you'd give him just a little more time to show what he can do. If you come as a nobody, you might be lucky to get a couple of sub minutes. 

You're right, clubs will always try to prove they've spent their money well, and the youngsters suffer for it. But for some of the smaller EPL clubs (Burnley, Watford, Hull, Bournemouth) a transfer fee of $6-10mil would be more than enough for Larin to get his fair chance imo.

[Fort York Redcoat1555362293]

18 hours ago, matty said:

How pissed would all of you be if some Chinese team gets him? I'd be pretty bummed

I'd be more pissed if he went to Liga MX. At least China would just be about money and a unique experience. Mexico is still within the region. He should aim further abroad.

[matty]

5 hours ago, Fort York Redcoat1555362293 said:

I'd be more pissed if he went to Liga MX. At least China would just be about money and a unique experience. Mexico is still within the region. He should aim further abroad.

So despite being better than mls, csl and most of europe (outside of the 5 likely) you would rather he not go to Mexico because it's still concacaf?

[Fort York Redcoat1555362293]

3 minutes ago, matty said:

So despite being better than mls, csl and most of europe (outside of the 5 likely) you would rather he not go to Mexico because it's still concacaf?

Yes. So many times, yes. Why would you prefer it?

[matty]

5 hours ago, Fort York Redcoat1555362293 said:

Yes. So many times, yes. Why would you prefer it?

Ok just wanted to be clear. I'd prefer Mexico over china because it's a stronger and more intensive league. Liga MX is a step up from MLS while CSL is a step down.

Latin America is also an environment canadians need to learn to play in.

A European top 10 league is the prefered move but Mexico isn't bad. China is a blah move because the league isn't there yet.

[zeelaw]

25 minutes ago, Fort York Redcoat1555362293 said:

I'd be more pissed if he went to Liga MX. At least China would just be about money and a unique experience. Mexico is still within the region. He should aim further abroad.

Oh man disagree,

I'd rather him go to Mexico even before Europe.  If he can cut it there, he'll get Spanish and Portuguese teams all over him.

[jpg75]

3 hours ago, matty said:

Mexico seems to be becoming a fashionable league atm unlike Portugal which is losing it's place to France and Belgium.

Mexico is also a more competitive and arguably intense league than Portugal. While it might lack a benfica or porto it has like 10 bragas and sportings.

What exactly do you mean by Portugal losing it's place to France? Ligue 1 has been a clearly stronger league than Portugal for pretty much ever.

Yes, Mexico is more balanced but the more intense matches in UCL at Benfica will compensate for that. In Mexico there is no guarantee of Libertadores due to the parity in the league.

 

[Bertuzzi44]

I'd have no problem with Larin transferring to a strong LigaMX side. There is a lot of talent in that league, and it is a step up from MLS. Plus, as has been noted, having Canadians playing in Central American conditions can only help the National Team.

That said, I don't think I've heard any real Mexico rumours. He's most likely Europe bound anyway.

[matty]

9 minutes ago, jpg75 said:

What exactly do you mean by Portugal losing it's place to France? Ligue 1 has been a clearly stronger league than Portugal for pretty much ever.

Yes, Mexico is more balanced but the more intense matches in UCL at Benfica will compensate for that. In Mexico there is no guarantee of Libertadores due to the parity in the league.

 

Ligue 1 stronger than Portugal is a pretty recent thing man. 

I agree the big 3 and even Braga offer Europe play (mostly stronger) but I think he'd get strong matches more often via Mexico. Either is fine with me as I think both could give him the enviroment he needs to grow.

[C2SKI]

Mexico might be my preferred destination for Canadians, until they outgrow it and transfer to a top league. The experience would help us immensely.

[jpg75]

26 minutes ago, matty said:

Ligue 1 stronger than Portugal is a pretty recent thing man. 

Read up on your European history man. My grandmother used to go watch those great Stade Reims teams visit FC Rouen back in the 50's. France has always been stronger than Portugal in football.

[matty]

1 hour ago, jpg75 said:

Read up on your European history man. My grandmother used to go watch those great Stade Reims teams visit FC Rouen back in the 50's. France has always been stronger than Portugal in football.

You mean like how Portuguese teams have won a combined 7 European titles to Frech clubs' 2 (when you remove the Intertoto Cup)?

[Bison44]

This just shows that people can find an argument in everything.  How about that Larin kid though eh??  He is tearing it up!!!  

[jpg75]

29 minutes ago, matty said:

You mean like how Portuguese teams have won a combined 7 European titles to Frech clubs' 2 (when you remove the Intertoto Cup)?

Quite the selective use of statistics. You know you're only measuring the relative strength of the top club in each country with that stat, right? How about this: since Belenenses won in 1945-46 only 3 clubs have won the Portuguese league more than once (Porto, Benfica and Sporting). Boavista won in 2000.

In that same time frame France has crowned 14 different champions. 8 teams have won atleast 5 times. I'm sure the UEFA co-effecient starting in the era of multiple reps. in European competition would reflect that.