The Road to Qatar.

[TGAA_Star]

19 minutes ago, Yoginess said:

Given the current climate, I don't think implementing a system that can be used for cycles to come is top priority.

If we can somehow land in the group with US, that would be glorious.

Yeah I get that and there is the added caveat that we did beat them in Nations League but can we do it again

[Blackdude]

21 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Agreed.

Here is what 2 groups of 5 may look like:

Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, Curacao, Panama

USA, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Canada, Haiti

Like you said, still tough, but doable. I think we can take points off all of those teams. We always seem to punch above our weight against Costa Rica and the team should feel they have something to prove against USA and Haiti, due to the recent loses that could of (should of) gone differently. Hell, they should even feel they have something to prove against El Salvador, what with the whole chasing ranking points and all. 

I didn't cherry pick the groups, I just alternated 1 through 8 based on FIFA rankings, but it does set up nicely for us. 

Groups of 5 are bad for many reasons. Might as well go to 6.

[SkuseisLoose]

Has to be an even number of teams in the groups so the final matches can all be played at the same time. You don't want two teams going into their final match  after everyone else knowing they both only need a tie to go through.

[TGAA_Star]

28 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Agreed.

Here is what 2 groups of 5 may look like:

Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, Curacao, Panama

USA, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Canada, Haiti

Like you said, still tough, but doable. I think we can take points off all of those teams. We always seem to punch above our weight against Costa Rica and the team should feel they have something to prove against USA and Haiti, due to the recent loses that could of (should of) gone differently. Hell, they should even feel they have something to prove against El Salvador, what with the whole chasing ranking points and all. 

I didn't cherry pick the groups, I just alternated 1 through 8 based on FIFA rankings, but it does set up nicely for us. 

In that group of 5 Canada would be able to take points probably off of USA, El Salvador and maybe Haiti but Costa Rica that would be the toughest test if anything.

[Obinna]

10 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

Groups of 5 are bad for many reasons. Might as well go to 6.

For the record I think 2 groups of 4 is more probable.

In that case we are perhaps looking at:

Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, Curacao 

USA, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Canada

Edited May 6, 2020 by Obinna

[xabuep2]

13 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

Groups of 5 are bad for many reasons. Might as well go to 6.

Exactly. Too many matches. The idea is to reduce the numbers of games. Check this interesting article about Concacaf potencial formats: https://canpl.ca/article/concacaf-world-cup-qualifying-potential-condensed-formats-to-consider

Edited May 6, 2020 by xabuep2

[TGAA_Star]

1 minute ago, Obinna said:

For the record I think 2 groups of 4 is more probable.

And if anything that probably makes more sense

[Obinna]

Just now, xabuep2 said:

Exactly. Too many matches. The idea is to reduce the numbers of games. Check this interesting article about Concacaf potencial formats: https://canpl.ca/article/concacaf-world-cup-qualifying-potential-condensed-formats-to-consider

It would reduce the number of games, but not enough in my opinion.

[TGAA_Star]

But granted if we get to Qatar, we would in all likelihood have to drop our old players and some of the players who we currently have right now are getting old/up there in age 

[SpursFlu]

But you have to allow for some kind of play in. You can't completely close it off. Maybe 2 groups of 6 with a 24 team play in. 4th plays winner, similar to the previous set up

Edited May 6, 2020 by SpursFlu

[TGAA_Star]

18 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

But you have to allow for some kind of play in. You can't completely close it off. Maybe 2 groups of 6 with a 24 team play in. 4th plays winner, similar to the previous set up

Yeah I'm definitely in favor

[Obinna]

What about the top-12 seeded teams split into 3 groups of 4?

Group A: Mexico, El Salvador, Canada, Antigua & Barbuda

Group B: USA, Honduras, Curacao, T&T 

Group C Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Haiti 

Group winners qualify for the World Cup. For the half-spot, 2nd place teams either enter a play-off with lower-seed winner, OR (more likely due to time) best second place team just enters play-off with lower-seed winner.

I realize being drawn with Mexico is not ideal, but more focused on the mechanics of the format.

There are definitely issues with it, but that may be the best way to do it if we get short on match days...

Also, not sure how fair would be to second place group B & C if we (Canada) beat up on Antigua and finish 4th on goal difference. Imagine the meltdown if the United States slips up and finishes 2nd and looses out to us on goal difference. Also, note that T&T fall into their group. They would have an absolute savage meltdown.

Another flaw is that potential weakness of the loser-seed champion. Strongest teams are likely Guatemala, St. Kitts, and Bermuda. Should any of them get a crack? A top 12 waters down the lower-seed tourney a bit too much.

Edit: And I also didn't consider what the format would be for a lower-seed tournament...

Edited May 6, 2020 by Obinna

[TGAA_Star]

35 minutes ago, Obinna said:

What about the top-12 seeded teams split into 3 groups of 4?

Group A: Mexico, El Salvador, Canada, Antigua & Barbuda

Group B: USA, Honduras, Curacao, T&T 

Group C Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Haiti 

Group winners qualify for the World Cup. For the half-spot, 2nd place teams either enter a play-off with lower-seed winner, OR (more likely due to time) best second place team just enters play-off with lower-seed winner.

I realize being drawn with Mexico is not ideal, but more focused on the mechanics of the format.

There are definitely issues with it, but that may be the best way to do it if we get short on match days...

Also, not sure how fair would be to second place group B & C if we (Canada) beat up on Antigua and finish 4th on goal difference. Imagine the meltdown if the United States slips up and finishes 2nd and looses out to us on goal difference. Also, note that T&T fall into their group. They would have an absolute savage meltdown.

Another flaw is that potential weakness of the loser-seed champion. Strongest teams are likely Guatemala, St. Kitts, and Bermuda. Should any of them get a crack? A top 12 waters down the lower-seed tourney a bit too much.

Edit: And I also didn't consider what the format would be for a lower-seed tournament...

 

Probably the best approach I have seen on here suggested...no argument from me

[CanadianSoccerFan]

47 minutes ago, Obinna said:

What about the top-12 seeded teams split into 3 groups of 4?

Group A: Mexico, El Salvador, Canada, Antigua & Barbuda

Group B: USA, Honduras, Curacao, T&T 

Group C Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Haiti 

Group winners qualify for the World Cup. For the half-spot, 2nd place teams either enter a play-off with lower-seed winner, OR (more likely due to time) best second place team just enters play-off with lower-seed winner.

I realize being drawn with Mexico is not ideal, but more focused on the mechanics of the format.

There are definitely issues with it, but that may be the best way to do it if we get short on match days...

Also, not sure how fair would be to second place group B & C if we (Canada) beat up on Antigua and finish 4th on goal difference. Imagine the meltdown if the United States slips up and finishes 2nd and looses out to us on goal difference. Also, note that T&T fall into their group. They would have an absolute savage meltdown.

Another flaw is that potential weakness of the loser-seed champion. Strongest teams are likely Guatemala, St. Kitts, and Bermuda. Should any of them get a crack? A top 12 waters down the lower-seed tourney a bit too much.

Edit: And I also didn't consider what the format would be for a lower-seed tournament...

The problem I keep coming across when playing with scenarios is the minnows.  Even with this format you would need 5 windows (10 match days) to get from 23 minnows (ranked 13 to 35) down to 1 challenger.  Add the crossover and you're at 12 match days required.  It's hard to find any format that can sort everything out in less than 12 match days when you factor in the minnows.  

 

[TGAA_Star]

1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

The problem I keep coming across when playing with scenarios is the minnows.  Even with this format you would need 5 windows (10 match days) to get from 23 minnows (ranked 13 to 35) down to 1 challenger.  Add the crossover and you're at 12 match days required.  It's hard to find any format that can sort everything out in less than 12 match days when you factor in the minnows.  

 

Then what would you suggest as an alternative 

[An Observer]

2 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

The problem I keep coming across when playing with scenarios is the minnows.  Even with this format you would need 5 windows (10 match days) to get from 23 minnows (ranked 13 to 35) down to 1 challenger.  Add the crossover and you're at 12 match days required.  It's hard to find any format that can sort everything out in less than 12 match days when you factor in the minnows.  

 

I think not only Concacaf will have this issue but some other confederations as well (probably Africa and Asia).  I think part of the solution is playing into the summer of 2022 for qualifying at least the intercontinental playoffs and possibly the 4th place match in Concacaf (and some of the other two leg play offs in other confederations like UEFA) which frees up some dates.  I would bet on two groups of 5 (or possibly 4 depending on the match days) with the winners going through; the two second place sides playing for the 3rd automatic slot and the 4th one playing the winner of the minnows (perhaps in March 2022 or even June for a right to play in the intercontinental playoffs in June or July).  If they go to 10 though, the issue there is that you are giving the winner of the minnows (who could be 11th, or 12th or so best team in Concacaf a shot at a home and away against a Canada or Honduras where if they squeaked through they then just have to beat NZ (assuming we are playing Oceania) in a home and away to get to the World Cup.  I would take that if I was Guatemala or Suriname.  That may push this more to a 8 team round which then has the issue of sides only having to play 6 times to qualify which seems a bit light.  So I would expect the 2 groups of 5 if they can swing it in the dates as that means 8 matches each to qualify and I doubt the 4th place side would object to playing the 11th or 12th best side for the right to play in the intercontinental playoff.

Obviously, the two groups means that Mexico and the US wont play each other which surely they will object to but these are extraordinary times and they only need to play 8 matches to qualify (and their great rival is not standing in their way which makes that path easier).  Plus if for some reason they finish second, they would fancy their chances against any of the other sides in a two leg playoff (and worse case, fancy their chances against NZ).  

Anyway, my two cents worth.

 

[baulderdash77]

The way I see it there’s really only 2 ways to go.  First there’s probably no way to make a viable tournament with 35 teams.  They have to get to 32 either by coin toss or a special game.

Option 1) Have a senior tournament.  2 groups of 4 with the 1st place teams qualifying and the higher 2nd place team qualifying.  The lower 2nd place team would play the winner of the junior tournament for the right to play Oceana.

Canada’s 4 team group would probably be:  7 Canada, 2 USA, 6 El Salvador, 3 Costa Rica.

The other group would be:  1 Mexico, 4 Jamaica, 5 Honduras, 8 Curaçao.  

Option 2). Have a home and home seeded tournament 32 to 1 with the semi final losers playing each other for the full right to make it.

I think the fairest way is to go with Option 2.  It gives  everyone a straight chance and it’s a make it or not tournament over 5 windows.

 

So in a seeded tournament who would Canada play- (assuming no upsets)

Round 1

7 Canada vs 26 Cuba

Round 2

7 Canada vs 10 Haiti

Round 3

7 Canada vs 2 USA

Round 4

7 Canada vs 3 Costa Rica

Round 5 (contingent)

7 Canada vs 4 Jamaica

Edited May 7, 2020 by baulderdash77

[An Observer]

57 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

 

Round 3

7 Canada vs 2 USA

 

This is why this won't happen.  After the autumn matches, there is no way the US would want to play us in a QF in a home and away where if they lost they go out.  While it is clear they would be favourites, they know there is every possibility they would lose that home and away.  Whereas, in a 4 or 5 team group, they are far more likely go through as the winners or at least take the second place slot and playoff for the 3rd and even if they lost that they still have a decent shot at qualifying

[TGAA_Star]

7 hours ago, neuker said:

The proposed formats that have Canada and the United States in the same group sets up a potentially interesting scenario. If we happen to beat the United States in both our matches against them, AND if one of the other countries manages to get a win against the United States, then there is the possibility of Canada going to Qatar and the United States staying home. Wouldn't that make for the best World Cup EVER!!!

Yeah it would but Canada being drawn with USA or Mexico in a group either way you look at it is inevitable and who would you rather face? Mexico who is a much stronger side than the USA or the USA who on their best day can actually be just as strong as Mexico

[TGAA_Star]

6 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

The way I see it there’s really only 2 ways to go.  First there’s probably no way to make a viable tournament with 35 teams.  They have to get to 32 either by coin toss or a special game.

Option 1) Have a senior tournament.  2 groups of 4 with the 1st place teams qualifying and the higher 2nd place team qualifying.  The lower 2nd place team would play the winner of the junior tournament for the right to play Oceana.

Canada’s 4 team group would probably be:  7 Canada, 2 USA, 6 El Salvador, 3 Costa Rica.

The other group would be:  1 Mexico, 4 Jamaica, 5 Honduras, 8 Curaçao.  

Option 2). Have a home and home seeded tournament 32 to 1 with the semi final losers playing each other for the full right to make it.

I think the fairest way is to go with Option 2.  It gives  everyone a straight chance and it’s a make it or not tournament over 5 windows.

 

So in a seeded tournament who would Canada play- (assuming no upsets)

Round 1

7 Canada vs 26 Cuba

Round 2

7 Canada vs 10 Haiti

Round 3

7 Canada vs 2 USA

Round 4

7 Canada vs 3 Costa Rica

Round 5 (contingent)

7 Canada vs 4 Jamaica

Your option 2 as a suggestion works but would we even get past Round 3 or 4 because we would have to face USA and Costa Rica both who we have difficulty against

[TGAA_Star]

But then besides all this, for 2026 since we are co hosting the FIFA World Cup with USA and Mexico, I wonder how those qualifiers will work especially if we are hosts? I mean if FIFA gives us automatic qualification especially then that means us, USA and Mexico do not have to take part in qualifiers. But then how is that Hex going to work with other teams like Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago unless the Hex for 2026 will be for those countries in CONCACAF ranked from 7th and onward?

But at least for us if we are given automatic qualification we don't have to even do anything but sit pretty until the 2026 FIFA World Cup begins. Yeah sure we would have to play friends with a whole slew of countries as well as play in Gold Cups as well to prepare but still either way it works out well for us Canadians anyway.

 

Unless FIFA decides not to give us automatic qualification and we have to take part in the qualifiers but even if we do and let's say we don't qualify, we more or less qualify regardless anyway being co hosts.

Edited May 7, 2020 by TGAA_Star

[baulderdash77]

11 hours ago, An Observer said:

This is why this won't happen.  After the autumn matches, there is no way the US would want to play us in a QF in a home and away where if they lost they go out.  While it is clear they would be favourites, they know there is every possibility they would lose that home and away.  Whereas, in a 4 or 5 team group, they are far more likely go through as the winners or at least take the second place slot and playoff for the 3rd and even if they lost that they still have a decent shot at qualifying

The thing is there’s no easy way for anyone.  Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica and Canada are all capable of beating the US.  
 

Even in a 4 team group the US would have Costa Rica and Canada in it so if they can’t win the home and away vs Canada they don’t get through.  So no matter what it’s tony easy to qualify- for anyone.

It can be argued that Mexico and Honduras get easier paths to qualifying but there are no freebies.

[Obinna]

14 hours ago, An Observer said:

I think not only Concacaf will have this issue but some other confederations as well (probably Africa and Asia).  I think part of the solution is playing into the summer of 2022 for qualifying at least the intercontinental playoffs and possibly the 4th place match in Concacaf (and some of the other two leg play offs in other confederations like UEFA) which frees up some dates.  I would bet on two groups of 5 (or possibly 4 depending on the match days) with the winners going through; the two second place sides playing for the 3rd automatic slot and the 4th one playing the winner of the minnows (perhaps in March 2022 or even June for a right to play in the intercontinental playoffs in June or July).  If they go to 10 though, the issue there is that you are giving the winner of the minnows (who could be 11th, or 12th or so best team in Concacaf a shot at a home and away against a Canada or Honduras where if they squeaked through they then just have to beat NZ (assuming we are playing Oceania) in a home and away to get to the World Cup.  I would take that if I was Guatemala or Suriname.  That may push this more to a 8 team round which then has the issue of sides only having to play 6 times to qualify which seems a bit light.  So I would expect the 2 groups of 5 if they can swing it in the dates as that means 8 matches each to qualify and I doubt the 4th place side would object to playing the 11th or 12th best side for the right to play in the intercontinental playoff.

Obviously, the two groups means that Mexico and the US wont play each other which surely they will object to but these are extraordinary times and they only need to play 8 matches to qualify (and their great rival is not standing in their way which makes that path easier).  Plus if for some reason they finish second, they would fancy their chances against any of the other sides in a two leg playoff (and worse case, fancy their chances against NZ).  

Anyway, my two cents worth.

 

Good post. 

Wouldn't they need to determine 1st and 2nd for the FIFA WC pots? Or do they just use the rankings for that? If not, the group winners (probably USA and Mexico) could face each other.

[TGAA_Star]

18 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

The thing is there’s no easy way for anyone.  Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica and Canada are all capable of beating the US.  
 

Even in a 4 team group the US would have Costa Rica and Canada in it so if they can’t win the home and away vs Canada they don’t get through.  So no matter what it’s tony easy to qualify- for anyone.

It can be argued that Mexico and Honduras get easier paths to qualifying but there are no freebies.

I wouldn't mind this format

[RS]

Wait, why would the US and Mexico object to not facing each other?