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The Road to Qatar.

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33 minutes ago, archer21 said:

Honestly I don’t mind your top 16 format. The problem is, the fact that the whoever wins the bottom half (17th best team in concacaf) just needs to win a single home and away tie to go to the World Cup. The chances are still low that they’d be able to do that but still way too high for a minnow to make it over other more deserving teams. Also with groups of 5, it’ll take more match days to complete that side of the qualifiers (including byes with odd # of teams) so it doesn’t necessarily make it any quicker.

But then again being in the playoff is like an easier path if you think about it because whoever ends up 4th will most likely have to face New Zealand in the inter continental playoff 

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Lower seed tournament is a little too diluted with that format, but good idea otherwise.

Also, why have a final in that format? Is the purpose to rank the qualifying concacaf teams? Aren't the teams ranked by fifa points for the WC group pots?

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17 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Lower seed tournament is a little too diluted with that format, but good idea otherwise.

Also, why have a final in that format? Is the purpose to rank the qualifying concacaf teams? Aren't the teams ranked by fifa points for the WC group pots?

Exactly interesting point, teams are ranked by FIFA points especially for WC group pots

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8 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Exactly interesting point, teams are ranked by FIFA points especially for WC group pots

Yup, and if that's the case there's no need to have a final.

Here's an idea:

  • scrap the final, have a semi-final for the group winners, but also have a semi-final for the group runner-ups. 
  • winners of the "A" semi-final make the world cup
  • losers of the "A semi-final play 3rd-4th match, winner qualifies for world cup, loser is eliminated
  • winners of the "B" semi-final play each other. Winner plays lower seed tournament winner 
  • losers of "B" semi-final eliminated.   

Keeping the group runner-ups alive adds to the drama. Having the best runner-up play the lower-seed champion gives a more balanced, fair and interesting match up. Eliminating the 4th place team (loser of A semi-final) is a nice twist. At that point they already had 2 chances to qualify for the world cup, I am okay with them getting eliminated at that point.   

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2 hours ago, archer21 said:

Honestly I don’t mind your top 16 format. The problem is, the fact that the whoever wins the bottom half (17th best team in concacaf) just needs to win a single home and away tie to go to the World Cup. The chances are still low that they’d be able to do that but still way too high for a minnow to make it over other more deserving teams. Also with groups of 5, it’ll take more match days to complete that side of the qualifiers (including byes with odd # of teams) so it doesn’t necessarily make it any quicker.

Well it wouldn’t be just one Home and away tie, it would be two. Playoff to see who the 4th best team is and then the intercontinental playoff, so not exactly easy for the 17th place team if you use this format.

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10 minutes ago, Daryn27 said:

Well it wouldn’t be just one Home and away tie, it would be two. Playoff to see who the 4th best team is and then the intercontinental playoff, so not exactly easy for the 17th place team if you use this format.

Pretty easy if you compare what they would have had to go through to make the 2018 World Cup

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6 minutes ago, neuker said:

Okay, I'm curious now. For argument sake, let's say Canada finishes 4th in the top 16 half (1st through 16th), then for which country finishing 1st in the bottom half (17th through 35th) do you think Canada would be an easy opponent for? I really don't see one in that group who would easily walk over us, do you?

That's not the argument.

It's that the 17th seed shouldn't be one tie away from the intercontinental playoffs, which is why this format will never be implemented. 

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6 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

That's not the argument.

It's that the 17th seed shouldn't be one tie away from the intercontinental playoffs, which is why this format will never be implemented. 

They would probably be of similar strength to whoever NZ would face in the Oceania final. 

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22 minutes ago, neuker said:

Okay, I'm curious now. For argument sake, let's say Canada finishes 4th in the top 16 half (1st through 16th), then for which country finishing 1st in the bottom half (17th through 35th) do you think Canada would be an easy opponent for? I really don't see one in that group who would easily walk over us, do you?

Yeah that’s not what I was saying. Kyle the Hill pretty much summed it up. 

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How about:

-12 groups of 3 (1 group of 2) 4 match days 

-12 group winners form 3 groups of 4. 6 match days.

-Group winners go to WC and best 2 runners up play home and away for 1/2 spot. 2 more match days. 
 

12 match days total. 

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13 minutes ago, archer21 said:

How about:

-12 groups of 3 (1 group of 2) 4 match days 

-12 group winners form 3 groups of 4. 6 match days.

-Group winners go to WC and best 2 runners up play home and away for 1/2 spot. 2 more match days. 
 

12 match days total. 

In the first round, Mexico, USA and even Canada could/would send B teams and still hammer the competition. It doesn't really give the smaller nations much of a chance.

I think they'll have a lower-seed tournament one way or another.

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1 minute ago, Obinna said:

In the first round, Mexico, USA and even Canada could/would send B teams and still hammer the competition. It doesn't really give the smaller nations much of a chance.

I think they'll have a lower-seed tournament one way or another.

The lower seeded nations shouldn't have a chance. No other confederation does a lower-seed tournament.

Concacaf only came up with it so they could retain the Hex.

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My thoughts are:

2 Groups of 5. (Mexico & US separated).

8 Games for each team (home and away). Top 2 make the WC. Runners-up playoff (winner makes WC, loser goes to Intercontinental playoff).

Every team can play 2 games in each Window (assuming international windows get extended so there are "3 match days". This can be completed in 4 Windows.

Window Schedule Example.

A vs B
C vs D
A vs E
B vs C
D vs E

 

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14 minutes ago, Obinna said:

In the first round, Mexico, USA and even Canada could/would send B teams and still hammer the competition. It doesn't really give the smaller nations much of a chance.

I think they'll have a lower-seed tournament one way or another.

Seriously why is everyone so worried about the minnows? I get what you’re saying because that obviously played a part in the decision making for the ridiculous system we have in place currently. But it’s World Cup qualifying, the goal should be to have the best system to find the best teams to qualify. Minnows can get games in Central American or Caribbean championships as well as nations league. And with less match days than anticipated, there are limited solutions to the problem. 

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12 minutes ago, Yoginess said:

My thoughts are:

2 Groups of 5. (Mexico & US separated).

8 Games for each team (home and away). Top 2 make the WC. Runners-up playoff (winner makes WC, loser goes to Intercontinental playoff).

Every team can play 2 games in each Window (assuming international windows get extended so there are "3 match days". This can be completed in 4 Windows.

Window Schedule Example.

A vs B
C vs D
A vs E
B vs C
D vs E

 

Not bad if they allow for “3 match days”. How would you include teams 11-35 while keeping match days down though?

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35 minutes ago, archer21 said:

Seriously why is everyone so worried about the minnows? I get what you’re saying because that obviously played a part in the decision making for the ridiculous system we have in place currently. But it’s World Cup qualifying, the goal should be to have the best system to find the best teams to qualify. Minnows can get games in Central American or Caribbean championships as well as nations league. And with less match days than anticipated, there are limited solutions to the problem. 

I am not worried about them personally, but it`s clear to me that Vic is worried about elevating the level of the minnows. He consistently talks about getting them more involved. That was a big factor behind nations league. It will be a big factor in world cup qualifying. This is why I am bringing them up.

I don`t care about them besides that, if that makes sense.

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11 minutes ago, Obinna said:

I am not worried about them personally, but it`s clear to me that Vic is worried about elevating the level of the minnows. He consistently talks about getting them more involved. That was a big factor behind nations league. It will be a big factor in world cup qualifying. This is why I am bringing them up.

I don`t care about them besides that, if that makes sense.

Yeah fair enough. Hopefully with a shortened time to get the games done, he cools on that stance a bit just for this cycle.

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18 minutes ago, Obinna said:

I am not worried about them personally, but it`s clear to me that Vic is worried about elevating the level of the minnows. He consistently talks about getting them more involved. That was a big factor behind nations league. It will be a big factor in world cup qualifying. This is why I am bringing them up.

I don`t care about them besides that, if that makes sense.

Which is what makes the FIFA WCQ all the more competitive 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

The lower seeded nations shouldn't have a chance. No other confederation does a lower-seed tournament.

Concacaf only came up with it so they could retain the Hex.

No other confederation has our sort of talent stratification either.

Comparing Asia and Concacaf, I created talent bins. They are subjective, but I tried to keep teams of a similar level in the same bin. I created the bins first and then slotted the countries in (by rank) after.

This is how it turned out:

bin 1: 1-20

bin 2: 21-50

bin 3: 51-80

bin 4: 81-120

bin 5: 121-170

bin 6: 171+

AFC:

bin 1:

bin 2: 28,33,40,42,

bin 3: 55,67,70,71,76,79,

bin 4: 82,85,89,94,96,97,99,103,108,113,116,

bin 5: 121,124,129,136,138,143,144,147,149,154,155,157,170,

bin 6: 173,173,182,187,188,189,190,191,196,199,200,206

CONCACAF:

bin 1: 11

bin 2: 22,46,48,

bin 3: 62,69,73,80

bin 4: 81,86,105,

bin 5: 126,130,139,141,151,158,159,162,166,167,168,170,

bin 6: 176,178,179,183,184,193,195,200,203,207,208,210

We are definitely more bottom heavy than Asia is, for example, so it makes sense to me to give these nations in bin 5 and 6 more games against each other, hence nations league and (probably) the lower-seed world cup qualifying tournament. Having them play against stronger teams right out of the gate is a waste for time for everyone involved. 

Edited by Obinna

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, archer21 said:

Yeah fair enough. Hopefully with a shortened time to get the games done, he cools on that stance a bit just for this cycle.

We will have to see but I would not bet on it. I do not see much reason for him to scrap the lower seed tournament. Even with less match days you could probably make it work. 

Edit: I guess I have talked myself into supporting the idea of a lower-seed tournament, but my intent was not to show support for them. I care about Canada, not the other teams. My aim was just to demonstrate why the lower seed tournament would make sense from the perspective of the powers that be (Vic).

Edited by Obinna

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Obinna said:

We will have to see but I would not bet on it. I do not see much reason for him to scrap the lower seed tournament. Even with less match days you could probably make it work. 

Edit: I guess I have talked myself into supporting the idea of a lower-seed tournament, but my intent was not to show support for them. I care about Canada, not the other teams. My aim was just to demonstrate why the lower seed tournament would make sense from the perspective of the powers that be (Vic).

I get it. There’s no point in talking about what we want to happen if there’s no chance of that actually happening. However I don’t see a way to do the lower-seed tournament and keep it within 12 match days. So I’m kind of hoping that FIFA doesn’t allot us more than 6 windows for qualifying lol
 

Edit: it probably could be done in 6 windows if it is separated into top 12, bottom 23 but then you run into the problem I was talking about before where teams 5-12 are eliminated but your 13th best team is still in qualifying. How does it make sense for Honduras to be eliminated while St Kitts just needs to win a two legged tie to get the 4th spot in Concacaf. It’s enough of a joke as it is but going from our 7th team having a chance to our 13th team is too big of a jump in my opinion.

Edited by archer21

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2 hours ago, archer21 said:

How about:

-12 groups of 3 (1 group of 2) 4 match days 

-12 group winners form 3 groups of 4. 6 match days.

-Group winners go to WC and best 2 runners up play home and away for 1/2 spot. 2 more match days. 
 

12 match days total. 

Groups of 3 needs 6 match days because it's an odd number.  It would have to be straight knockout to get to 12 teams in 4 match days

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Groups of 3 needs 6 match days because it's an odd number.  It would have to be straight knockout to get to 12 teams in 4 match days

Yes assuming they don’t make bigger windows to accommodate 3 match days in a window with only 2 matches per team (I have no idea how viable this is). 
 

For example in September window, team A plays team B Sept 2, team B plays team C Sept 6, team A plays team C Sept 10.

Hopefully this is possible? I really have no idea but it would be nice. It’s still only 8 days which seems to be the length of the windows if I’m not mistaken.

Edited by archer21

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8 minutes ago, neuker said:

That doesn't make any sense. Why shouldn't lower seeded nations have a chance? If FIFA adopted your line of thinking then a country that is ranked #73 in the world shouldn't have a chance to play in a 32-country FIFA World Cup. Everybody in the world loves to see an underdog beat a favoured team, as long as that favoured team isn't their team. Why shouldn't fans of lower-ranked nations be allowed to have a dream? Upsets do happen. Not often but they do. It keeps things interesting.

It was Mt. Vic who was dead-set against the "old, archaic system" of CONCACAF qualifying, where countries would have to climb up the ladder in order to progress to the next level and eventually the HEX. In order to win votes and get elected president of CONCACAF, he promised all the lowered-ranked countries a pathway for a shot at the inter-continental berth. If he went back on his word now, what do you think that would do for his chances of getting re-elected next time around? No, Mt. Vic is not as smart as you give him credit for. He's painted himself into a corner and it looks good on him.

I don’t think he meant that they shouldn’t have a chance. Their chance should just be proportional to their ability. The 16th ranked team would have basically zero chance to make it to the World Cup in your format, whereas the team that won the lower seeded tournament (17th or worse) would have a legitimate chance. That is a crazy way to do qualifying for something as big and important as the World Cup. If we sent a team ranked 17-35 to the World Cup CONCACAF would be the absolute laughing stock as they lose every match by ridiculous margins. Even to send them to the intercontinental playoff would be embarrassing for our confederation. Now if a team ranked 17th went through a legitimate qualifier and beat out all the other teams, that’s a different story.

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4 hours ago, neuker said:

They are only the 16th and 17th (or worse) ranked teams before the qualifying competition starts. By the time the qualifying matches have been completed quite a number of those ranked positions will have changed. Either way, whether you're the 16th or 17th (or worse) ranked country you will have to get past one of the top 4 ranked countries to either qualify for the World Cup or the inter-continental berth. While the 16th ranked country gets a guaranteed shot at one of the top 4 countries, the 17th (or worse) ranked country needs to come out on top of 18 other countries first before earning the right to a shot at one of the top 4.

Just curious, why are you so concerned about the 16th and 17th (or worse) ranked countries? Do you have ties to either Nicaragua or the Dominican Republic?

I feel like I’m talking to a wall here. Nobody outside of the top 10 (maybe 11 but not really) has a realistic shot of beating out the top teams in CONCACAF over a full group stage where randomness is removed.
Anybody can beat anybody in a 2 legged tie. Imagine Honduras plays Dominican Republic and in the first tie Honduras gets CONCACAFed by the ref sending off a Honduran player and giving a red card in the process by being fooled by a dive. Now we’re looking at potentially a multiple goal victory in leg 1 for Dominican Republic and they can just bunker in leg 2.
Our qualifying should not be left to this kind of randomness where some garbage team can slip in because our confederation decided to use such a ludicrous system. Let everyone play over a sufficient amount of games to eliminate the randomness and have the best teams earn their way in.

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