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The Road to Qatar.


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18 minutes ago, Obinna said:

I am not worried about them personally, but it`s clear to me that Vic is worried about elevating the level of the minnows. He consistently talks about getting them more involved. That was a big factor behind nations league. It will be a big factor in world cup qualifying. This is why I am bringing them up.

I don`t care about them besides that, if that makes sense.

Which is what makes the FIFA WCQ all the more competitive 

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1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

The lower seeded nations shouldn't have a chance. No other confederation does a lower-seed tournament.

Concacaf only came up with it so they could retain the Hex.

No other confederation has our sort of talent stratification either.

Comparing Asia and Concacaf, I created talent bins. They are subjective, but I tried to keep teams of a similar level in the same bin. I created the bins first and then slotted the countries in (by rank) after.

This is how it turned out:

bin 1: 1-20

bin 2: 21-50

bin 3: 51-80

bin 4: 81-120

bin 5: 121-170

bin 6: 171+

AFC:

bin 1:

bin 2: 28,33,40,42,

bin 3: 55,67,70,71,76,79,

bin 4: 82,85,89,94,96,97,99,103,108,113,116,

bin 5: 121,124,129,136,138,143,144,147,149,154,155,157,170,

bin 6: 173,173,182,187,188,189,190,191,196,199,200,206

CONCACAF:

bin 1: 11

bin 2: 22,46,48,

bin 3: 62,69,73,80

bin 4: 81,86,105,

bin 5: 126,130,139,141,151,158,159,162,166,167,168,170,

bin 6: 176,178,179,183,184,193,195,200,203,207,208,210

We are definitely more bottom heavy than Asia is, for example, so it makes sense to me to give these nations in bin 5 and 6 more games against each other, hence nations league and (probably) the lower-seed world cup qualifying tournament. Having them play against stronger teams right out of the gate is a waste for time for everyone involved. 

Edited by Obinna
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18 minutes ago, archer21 said:

Yeah fair enough. Hopefully with a shortened time to get the games done, he cools on that stance a bit just for this cycle.

We will have to see but I would not bet on it. I do not see much reason for him to scrap the lower seed tournament. Even with less match days you could probably make it work. 

Edit: I guess I have talked myself into supporting the idea of a lower-seed tournament, but my intent was not to show support for them. I care about Canada, not the other teams. My aim was just to demonstrate why the lower seed tournament would make sense from the perspective of the powers that be (Vic).

Edited by Obinna
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21 minutes ago, Obinna said:

We will have to see but I would not bet on it. I do not see much reason for him to scrap the lower seed tournament. Even with less match days you could probably make it work. 

Edit: I guess I have talked myself into supporting the idea of a lower-seed tournament, but my intent was not to show support for them. I care about Canada, not the other teams. My aim was just to demonstrate why the lower seed tournament would make sense from the perspective of the powers that be (Vic).

I get it. There’s no point in talking about what we want to happen if there’s no chance of that actually happening. However I don’t see a way to do the lower-seed tournament and keep it within 12 match days. So I’m kind of hoping that FIFA doesn’t allot us more than 6 windows for qualifying lol
 

Edit: it probably could be done in 6 windows if it is separated into top 12, bottom 23 but then you run into the problem I was talking about before where teams 5-12 are eliminated but your 13th best team is still in qualifying. How does it make sense for Honduras to be eliminated while St Kitts just needs to win a two legged tie to get the 4th spot in Concacaf. It’s enough of a joke as it is but going from our 7th team having a chance to our 13th team is too big of a jump in my opinion.

Edited by archer21
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2 hours ago, archer21 said:

How about:

-12 groups of 3 (1 group of 2) 4 match days 

-12 group winners form 3 groups of 4. 6 match days.

-Group winners go to WC and best 2 runners up play home and away for 1/2 spot. 2 more match days. 
 

12 match days total. 

Groups of 3 needs 6 match days because it's an odd number.  It would have to be straight knockout to get to 12 teams in 4 match days

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31 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Groups of 3 needs 6 match days because it's an odd number.  It would have to be straight knockout to get to 12 teams in 4 match days

Yes assuming they don’t make bigger windows to accommodate 3 match days in a window with only 2 matches per team (I have no idea how viable this is). 
 

For example in September window, team A plays team B Sept 2, team B plays team C Sept 6, team A plays team C Sept 10.

Hopefully this is possible? I really have no idea but it would be nice. It’s still only 8 days which seems to be the length of the windows if I’m not mistaken.

Edited by archer21
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8 minutes ago, neuker said:

That doesn't make any sense. Why shouldn't lower seeded nations have a chance? If FIFA adopted your line of thinking then a country that is ranked #73 in the world shouldn't have a chance to play in a 32-country FIFA World Cup. Everybody in the world loves to see an underdog beat a favoured team, as long as that favoured team isn't their team. Why shouldn't fans of lower-ranked nations be allowed to have a dream? Upsets do happen. Not often but they do. It keeps things interesting.

It was Mt. Vic who was dead-set against the "old, archaic system" of CONCACAF qualifying, where countries would have to climb up the ladder in order to progress to the next level and eventually the HEX. In order to win votes and get elected president of CONCACAF, he promised all the lowered-ranked countries a pathway for a shot at the inter-continental berth. If he went back on his word now, what do you think that would do for his chances of getting re-elected next time around? No, Mt. Vic is not as smart as you give him credit for. He's painted himself into a corner and it looks good on him.

I don’t think he meant that they shouldn’t have a chance. Their chance should just be proportional to their ability. The 16th ranked team would have basically zero chance to make it to the World Cup in your format, whereas the team that won the lower seeded tournament (17th or worse) would have a legitimate chance. That is a crazy way to do qualifying for something as big and important as the World Cup. If we sent a team ranked 17-35 to the World Cup CONCACAF would be the absolute laughing stock as they lose every match by ridiculous margins. Even to send them to the intercontinental playoff would be embarrassing for our confederation. Now if a team ranked 17th went through a legitimate qualifier and beat out all the other teams, that’s a different story.

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4 hours ago, neuker said:

They are only the 16th and 17th (or worse) ranked teams before the qualifying competition starts. By the time the qualifying matches have been completed quite a number of those ranked positions will have changed. Either way, whether you're the 16th or 17th (or worse) ranked country you will have to get past one of the top 4 ranked countries to either qualify for the World Cup or the inter-continental berth. While the 16th ranked country gets a guaranteed shot at one of the top 4 countries, the 17th (or worse) ranked country needs to come out on top of 18 other countries first before earning the right to a shot at one of the top 4.

Just curious, why are you so concerned about the 16th and 17th (or worse) ranked countries? Do you have ties to either Nicaragua or the Dominican Republic?

I feel like I’m talking to a wall here. Nobody outside of the top 10 (maybe 11 but not really) has a realistic shot of beating out the top teams in CONCACAF over a full group stage where randomness is removed.
Anybody can beat anybody in a 2 legged tie. Imagine Honduras plays Dominican Republic and in the first tie Honduras gets CONCACAFed by the ref sending off a Honduran player and giving a red card in the process by being fooled by a dive. Now we’re looking at potentially a multiple goal victory in leg 1 for Dominican Republic and they can just bunker in leg 2.
Our qualifying should not be left to this kind of randomness where some garbage team can slip in because our confederation decided to use such a ludicrous system. Let everyone play over a sufficient amount of games to eliminate the randomness and have the best teams earn their way in.

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Either way I can't wait until 2022 qualifiers are at least able to get started but at the same time it is very simple for Canada. Put up or shut up time...no excuses. If this Canada team is really for real if they are as good as you all claim they are, they should have no problem qualifying for Qatar.

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5 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

Either way I can't wait until 2022 qualifiers are at least able to get started but at the same time it is very simple for Canada. Put up or shut up time...no excuses. If this Canada team is really for real if they are as good as you all claim they are, they should have no problem qualifying for Qatar.

I'm with Rob on this one. From a marketing exposure standpoint I want to play the bigger teams but I think we should be able to qualify thru any format. Our current situation really comes down to that ridiculous loss to Haiti. So we need to just suck it up and deal with whatever.

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18 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I'm with Rob on this one. From a marketing exposure standpoint I want to play the bigger teams but I think we should be able to qualify thru any format. Our current situation really comes down to that ridiculous loss to Haiti. So we need to just suck it up and deal with whatever.

Exactly Canada if they are for real they should have no fear of the bigger teams and will want to face the bigger teams. However, Canada should they qualify for Qatar 2022 not only will it be their first World Cup in over 36 years since Mexico 1986 but they will be one of the youngest teams at the World Cup most likely which should at least make them a team to watch.

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13 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Exactly Canada if they are for real they should have no fear of the bigger teams and will want to face the bigger teams. However, Canada should they qualify for Qatar 2022 not only will it be their first World Cup in over 36 years since Mexico 1986 but they will be one of the youngest teams at the World Cup most likely which should at least make them a team to watch.

Yes sir. You are correct 

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FIFA looking to combine the September, October, November, and March windows into one mega window at the end of the year.  There would be 8 matches played in one massive block in November and December.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8312961/England-bonanza-FIFA-planning-radical-overhaul-international-football-calendar.html

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1 minute ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

FIFA looking to combine the September, October, November, and March windows into one mega window at the end of the year.  There would be 8 matches played in one massive block in November and December.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8312961/England-bonanza-FIFA-planning-radical-overhaul-international-football-calendar.html

So this means they would basically fast track into the Hex or what exactly does this mean? I'm serious I guess I just really wanna know if they plan on doing this for every confederation not just CONCACAF?

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2 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

So this means they would basically fast track into the Hex or what exactly does this mean? I'm serious I guess I just really wanna know if they plan on doing this for every confederation not just CONCACAF?

It only talks about UEFA, because it’s a British site, but FIFA wants to do it and every confederation falls under FIFA. Victor said there will not be a hex. 

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3 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

So this means they would basically fast track into the Hex or what exactly does this mean? I'm serious I guess I just really wanna know if they plan on doing this for every confederation not just CONCACAF?

It would be global.  There's more context in the article.  UEFA and FIFA are bickering over it.  

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9 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

It would be global.  There's more context in the article.  UEFA and FIFA are bickering over it.  

If that is the case, then qualifiers can finish earlier than 2022 or even on time to accommodate all the worldwide leagues especially since the World Cup will be played during fall/winter 2022

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27 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I think it's safe to say the first thing on the chopping block will be finishing off Nations League

Well it definitely takes a back seat to WCQ, that I agree with, but it is worth mentioning as a reminder that nations league will be required to determine Gold Cup participants.

For that reason, I have my doubts it will go away.

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5 hours ago, neuker said:

If the FIFA's mega window does materialize, the CPL season would have to conclude by the end of October if Herdman has any intention of using CPL players.

Exactly then there lies another problem but then again does Herdman even plan on calling up any CPL players for the squad? I mean are he or his staff even looking at those players right now? Which CPL players are even good enough to make the national team especially right now?

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On 5/12/2020 at 12:00 AM, neuker said:
How about:
 
To replace the HEX:
 
GR. A   (1) Mexico   (8) Curacao  (9)   Panama  (16) Nigaragua
GR. B   (2) USA   (7) Canada  (10) Haiti  (15) Suriname
GR. C   (3) Costa Rica   (6) El Sal.  (11) Trinidad  (14) St. Kitts
GR. D   (4) Jamaica   (5) Honduras  (12) Antigua  (13) Guatemala
 
Group winners advance to semi-finals.
Semi-final winners advance to final and qualify for Qatar.
Semi-final losers play 3rd place match. The winner qualifies for Qatar, the loser plays the winner of the Best of the Rest for the inter-continental berth.
 
The new Best of the Rest format:
 
GR. E  (17) D. R.  (24) St. Lucia  (25) P. Rico  (32) Turks  (33) US Vir.
GR. F  (18) Grenada   (23) Belize  (26) Cuba  (31) Aruba  (34) Br. Vir.
GR. G  (19) Barbados   (22) Bermuda  (27) Monts.  (30) Bahamas  (35) Anguilla
GR. H  (20) Guyana  (21) St. Vin.  (28) Domin.  (29) Cay. Is.  
 
Group winners advance to semi-finals.
Semi-final winners advance to final.
Winner of the final plays 4th place country from the replaced HEX format for the inter-continental berth.

The original plan had 14 matchdays. Assuming your group stages, semi finals, finals, and 4th place playoff are all home and away, your system has 16 matchdays (taking into account byes for the 5 team groups). If the format is going to change, it is going to be done to reduce the number of matchdays.

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15 minutes ago, Kent said:

The original plan had 14 matchdays. Assuming your group stages, semi finals, finals, and 4th place playoff are all home and away, your system has 16 matchdays (taking into account byes for the 5 team groups). If the format is going to change, it is going to be done to reduce the number of matchdays.

Exactly but then Nations League if it takes a backseat, then the lower seeded teams I am guessing have a mini tournament to decide who ends up taking part in qualifiers with the bigger name teams

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Yup. I don't see the CPL clubs standing in the way when push comes to shove. Teams like Honduras use their domestic league to good effect, bringing together players well in advance of games and the league is okay with it. I am not saying we need to do the same, but if they can do that it would be nice if the CPL can allow a few players to leave if need be. The league is very clearly development focused so I don't see it being an issue.

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