The Road to Qatar.

[Obinna]

3 hours ago, neuker said:

I wouldn't put too much stock into that 2-0 victory over the USA in Toronto. This proved to be an off day for the United States, in which they took Canada too lightly. One month later there were no more surprises. The biggest difference being the insertion of Sergino Dest into the US line-up. His explosive speed to get to the ball and deftly chip it through to Jordan Morris in the second minutes was nothing short of world class. Game, set and match! Because from that moment on there was no way that Canada was going to get a result, just as sure as Ajax won't be able to hang on to him after this season.

Fair enough. In Toronto it was an off day for the states and a good day for Canada. The reverse was true in the return match. Had they not scored early the game in Orlando may have played out differently, but that’s football.

I am not convinced they figured us out in Florida more than we set ourselves up for defeat for a variety of reasons, such as tactics, going down early, and perhaps some arrogance/overconfidence from our players and coaching staff. However, that is not to take credit away from them. They put us to the sword, so they get just as much as we get for taking them by surprise at home. 

I think on the balance they are still better than we are, deeper than we are, and more experienced than we are, but beating them is a huge notch in our belt psychologically.

We will believe we can do it again.

 

[JamboAl]

9 hours ago, neuker said:

With 110 posts to your credit, you obviously haven't been around long enough, nor gone back far enough in this thread to know that. There were many here who did express that they thought Canada had a better chances of qualifying for Qatar via the 7 to 35 route. I happen to agree with them. It was a softer, easier route barring a inter-confederation match-up against a CONMEBOL opponent. However, according to Mt. Vic that format will have to be changed now because of Covid 19. However, I would have much preferred to see Canada qualify for the HEX because we would be playing far more attractive opponents and in the long run our players would have benefitted more from playing such opposition.

Now, with the forced change of plans, I really don't like Canada's chances of qualifying for Qatar because if we get seeded into a group. For one, Canada will be one of the lowest seeded countries in their group, which means that our first match will be against one of the highest, if not the highest seeded country in our group. Being known for not being able to come from behind either in a match or when trailing in a group does not bode well for Herdman's team. The pressure will be on to get a victory in Canada's opening group match against a top-seeded country. Sure we will still be mathematically in contention if we do lose our opening match, be the all-too-familiar looking at the out-of-town scoreboard will have begun, soon to be followed by the getting the calculators-out stage. We've all been there, done that. Canada must 1) win its opening group match, 2) must have at least two Caribbean nations in its group, and must 3) win at least three matches in a row. None of these three would have been required if we had been able to go the 7 to 35 route. We better pray to God that things return to normal very quickly and that CONCACAF World Cup qualifying can commence in August/September as originally planned.

Someone having 128 posts accusing someone with 110 posts of not being around long enough is rather rich.

[Alex]

The way in which we beat the USA gives me hope we can do it again. It wasn’t a fluke and they did have their best players minus Dest. When our 2 best players are 20 it makes it even more likely that we can beat them again because Davies and David will only get better. 

[Kent]

1 hour ago, neuker said:

Good post and I agree with most of what you said, however, has Canada ever beat the United States when it really mattered? Obviously the game in Orlando was the one that mattered in the Nations League and not the one in Toronto, as it was them who advanced to the semi-finals and not us. Don't you think that it should have been Herdman's job to ensure that our young players would not be overcome with arrogance and overconfidence after that first match, especially considering that the objective had not yet been achieved? How long can you retain a coach who continues to make rookie mistakes that cost us so dearly? Given the fact that Canada had not beaten the United States in the previous 30 years any good coach would have recognized the danger and done everything possible to temper that youthful enthusiasm. Twice now, John Herdman has been solely responsible for denying our young players a taste of what its like to play in the semi-finals of a major international com[petition. In most respected soccer countries such a coach would not get an opportunity to fail for a third consecutive time, especially when has track-record lacks any positive noteworthy successes with that team.

Some might consider beating the USA for the first time in more than 30 years a positive noteworthy success. Losing to the USA in USA is meeting expectations.

The loss to Haiti is the only time we underperformed, and as you know about our lack of win streaks historically, we have underperformed less frequently than we usually do. With as many games against minnows as we have had you would typically expect us to trip up a couple times at least.

But whatever. Fire Herdman, fire Montagliani, fire everyone who works at the CSA and you will take over and lead Canada to glory. I wish you all the luck in the world.

[Alex]

5 hours ago, neuker said:

Minus Dest? Try taking Davies out of the Canadian line-up and see what you have left. Take a look at how Dest beats lazy defending to the ball and in that same motion chips in a perfect and  unmissable assist.

Here's the "you can kiss your HEX goodbye" moment:

 

I still feel that with Dest playing we can win.

[TFC2017]

Just wanted to pop by to say Happy Mother's day and I hope that you are all doing well and staying safe. I cannot wait for the resumption of soccer once it's safe to do so. 

[Alex]

4 minutes ago, TFC2017 said:

Just wanted to pop by to say Happy Mother's day and I hope that you are all doing well and staying safe. I cannot wait for the resumption of soccer once it's safe to do so. 

Thank you, great post 

[A Different Perspective]

I think we are being a bit myopic with our formats of top 8  and forgetting the remaining 27 Concacaf teams ...

I could actually see them going with top 12 ... three groups of four with winners moving on to World Cup and second place finishers along with the sole survivor of the 13-35 pool having a play-off to determine 4th place and who plays Oceania for final berth.

In ideal situation groups based on latest FIFA rankings (April 2020) would go as follows

Group A Mexico (1), El Salvador (6), Panama (9), Haiti (10)

Group B USA (2), Honduras (5), Curacao (8), Trinidad (11)

Group C Costa Rica (3), Jamaica (4), Canada (7),  Antigua (12)

Of course they could also switch 7 and 12 into Group A and 9 and 10 into group C, or do their so called "blind" POT selections.  Regardless I am good with any of the above and even any of the old systems - just equally anxious and excited to see our guys in action again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TGAA_Star]

21 minutes ago, A Different Perspective said:

I think we are being a bit myopic with our formats of top 8  and forgetting the remaining 27 Concacaf teams ...

I could actually see them going with top 12 ... three groups of four with winners moving on to World Cup and second place finishers along with the sole survivor of the 13-35 pool having a play-off to determine 4th place and who plays Oceania for final berth.

In ideal situation groups based on latest FIFA rankings (April 2020) would go as follows

Group A Mexico (1), El Salvador (6), Panama (9), Haiti (10)

Group B USA (2), Honduras (5), Curacao (8), Trinidad (11)

Group C Costa Rica (3), Jamaica (4), Canada (7),  Antigua (12)

Of course they could also switch 7 and 12 into Group A and 9 and 10 into group C, or do their so called "blind" POT selections.  Regardless I am good with any of the above and even any of the old systems - just equally anxious and excited to see our guys in action again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This definitely looks like a good format, definitely not flawed

[A Different Perspective]

55 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

This definitely looks like a good format, definitely not flawed

If I was a jaded Canada soccer supporter I may take your response as sarcastic ... lol

That said, it's Concacaf and whatever "draw" is decided it will be flawed ... I was only trying to shed light on those lower seeds need some thought to how this all comes together ...

 

 

[MtlMario]

Those lower seeds didn't have a chance for the hex ( #'s 9 to 12) anyways so not really necessary to include them in my opinion.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

3 hours ago, A Different Perspective said:

I think we are being a bit myopic with our formats of top 8  and forgetting the remaining 27 Concacaf teams ...

I could actually see them going with top 12 ... three groups of four with winners moving on to World Cup and second place finishers along with the sole survivor of the 13-35 pool having a play-off to determine 4th place and who plays Oceania for final berth.

In ideal situation groups based on latest FIFA rankings (April 2020) would go as follows

Group A Mexico (1), El Salvador (6), Panama (9), Haiti (10)

Group B USA (2), Honduras (5), Curacao (8), Trinidad (11)

Group C Costa Rica (3), Jamaica (4), Canada (7),  Antigua (12)

Of course they could also switch 7 and 12 into Group A and 9 and 10 into group C, or do their so called "blind" POT selections.  Regardless I am good with any of the above and even any of the old systems - just equally anxious and excited to see our guys in action again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It still takes 5 knockout rounds (10 matches) to get from 23 minnows to 1 challenger.  3 groups of 4 doesn't save any match days when you have to wait for the minnow path to finish.  Then you've got 4 matches to sort out the playoff place.  That's 14 match days.

This is why I have a sneaking suspicion the hex will stay.  You can convert the minnow path to straight knockout and finish the whole process in 12 matches.  It's hard to find anything that sorts it in fewer. 

 

[TGAA_Star]

8 minutes ago, neuker said:

While we're all playing fantasy soccer, why not have just one group of the top 4 seeded countries:

Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Jamaica.

Top 3 qualify for Qatar, while the fourth place finisher takes on the Best of the Rest winner for the right to play in the intercontinental play-off.

 

That is unpredictable but could it work? I don't know but it could be interesting 

[Trois Reds]

I can see it this way:

There are 35 nations in CONCACAF. Round 1, Numbers 30-35 play head to head. Three are eliminated. 32 teams left.

Round 2, 4 groups of 8.  Teams ranked 1-8 put in Pot A, 9-16 in Pot B, etc.  Head to head, 6 games for each team, top team goes through. 8 teams left.

Round 3, 2 groups of 4, again, either random draw with all eight or two pots of 4. Head to head, 6 games for each team. Top team in each group qualifies, the two second place teams play for the final spot, loser plays intercontinental playoff.

OR

Round 3, random draw, head to head quarterfinal, or seeds 1-4 play seeds 5-8.  4 winners advance, head to head semifinal, winners qualify, losers play a second head to head for the third spot.  Loser of third place matches goes to intercontinental playoff.  Which would mean 4 to 6 games this round for the top 4, not including intercontinental games.

Of course this last scenario means Canada, if they make it through Round 2, could be playing the US or Mexico in a quarterfinal, but they would probably be playing one of them anyway if they get to the semi.

Edited May 10, 2020 by Trois Reds

[A Different Perspective]

1 hour ago, neuker said:

I love it. It just keeps getting easier and easier for Canada to qualify for Qatar. With this format we dodge both Mexico and the USA, plus we're competing with 2 Caribbean countries. That's one of the benefits of being ranked 7th and not 6th in CONCACAF. Aside from an automatic bye into the World Cup Final, it's just about perfect.

I think we should send it off to Vic Warner right away!

Mission Accomplished - Neuker Loves it!!!!!!

[TGAA_Star]

59 minutes ago, Trois Reds said:

I can see it this way:

There are 35 nations in CONCACAF. Round 1, Numbers 30-35 play head to head. Three are eliminated. 32 teams left.

Round 2, 4 groups of 8.  Teams ranked 1-8 put in Pot A, 9-16 in Pot B, etc.  Head to head, 6 games for each team, top team goes through. 8 teams left.

Round 3, 2 groups of 4, again, either random draw with all eight or two pots of 4. Head to head, 6 games for each team. Top team in each group qualifies, the two second place teams play for the final spot, loser plays intercontinental playoff.

OR

Round 3, random draw, head to head quarterfinal, or seeds 1-4 play seeds 5-8.  4 winners advance, head to head semifinal, winners qualify, losers play a second head to head for the third spot.  Loser of third place matches goes to intercontinental playoff.  Which would mean 4 to 6 games this round for the top 4, not including intercontinental games.

Of course this last scenario means Canada, if they make it through Round 2, could be playing the US or Mexico in a quarterfinal, but they would probably be playing one of them anyway if they get to the semi.

I think out of those scenarios I would take the first option

[CanadianSoccerFan]

2 hours ago, Trois Reds said:

I can see it this way:

There are 35 nations in CONCACAF. Round 1, Numbers 30-35 play head to head. Three are eliminated. 32 teams left.

Round 2, 4 groups of 8.  Teams ranked 1-8 put in Pot A, 9-16 in Pot B, etc.  Head to head, 6 games for each team, top team goes through. 8 teams left.

Round 3, 2 groups of 4, again, either random draw with all eight or two pots of 4. Head to head, 6 games for each team. Top team in each group qualifies, the two second place teams play for the final spot, loser plays intercontinental playoff.

OR

Round 3, random draw, head to head quarterfinal, or seeds 1-4 play seeds 5-8.  4 winners advance, head to head semifinal, winners qualify, losers play a second head to head for the third spot.  Loser of third place matches goes to intercontinental playoff.  Which would mean 4 to 6 games this round for the top 4, not including intercontinental games.

Of course this last scenario means Canada, if they make it through Round 2, could be playing the US or Mexico in a quarterfinal, but they would probably be playing one of them anyway if they get to the semi.

The current format needs 14 match days. Your first option requites 16 match days and the second one requires 14.  

[Obinna]

23 hours ago, neuker said:

Good post and I agree with most of what you said, however, has Canada ever beat the United States when it really mattered? Obviously the game in Orlando was the one that mattered in the Nations League and not the one in Toronto, as it was them who advanced to the semi-finals and not us. Don't you think that it should have been Herdman's job to ensure that our young players would not be overcome with arrogance and overconfidence after that first match, especially considering that the objective had not yet been achieved? How long can you retain a coach who continues to make rookie mistakes that cost us so dearly? Given the fact that Canada had not beaten the United States in the previous 30 years any good coach would have recognized the danger and done everything possible to temper that youthful enthusiasm. Twice now, John Herdman has been solely responsible for denying our young players a taste of what its like to play in the semi-finals of a major international com[petition. In most respected soccer countries such a coach would not get an opportunity to fail for a third consecutive time, especially when has track-record lacks any positive noteworthy successes with that team.

Yes, the players and above all Herdman deserve criticism for the Orlando result. Why did we change what worked in Toronto? It still doesn't make sense to me, but maybe that's why I am not an international football manager. In my humble opinion, we should have forced the USA to figure us out. 

But that is in the past now. I hope the coach and the team learned from it. I still believe in this group. 

[Obinna]

12 hours ago, Alex said:

I still feel that with Dest playing we can win.

I think Dest is a bit overrated.

I am not sure he would get much time at Bayern Munich. I know many people said the same about Davies, but his physicality allows him to make up for mistakes. Dest does not have that.

[Obinna]

18 minutes ago, neuker said:

I'm with you all the way when it comes to believing in the current group players. They are the best that I have seen don the Maple Leaf in the 51 years that I have been following soccer in this country.

As far as Dest is concerned, time will tell, however, if anyone is overrated I believe it is Jonathan David. Dest did his job against him in the Orlando match. Completely shutting down the Canadian striker, while if you watch that first goal closely, you can see that it was Dest would beat David to the ball. David just doesn't have much to offer when the team needs him to help out at the back. He doesn't exhibit the same drive as he does up front. But hey, I'm no international football manager either, and that's why they pay Herdman the big bucks.

I guess that is why he is a forward

[Alex]

Here’s a wcq format that can wrap up quickly:

take the 35 teams, put them into 2 groups of 12, one of 11.

First match day: eliminate bottom 4 (12 group) or 3 teams (11 group) to get down to 3 groups of 8. Then do a straight knockout round in each section, no crossover. The winner of each section goes to the World Cup. The 3 second place teams play in a knockout tournament where the winner goes to the intercontinental playoff. 

September: early round

October: quarter finals

November: semi finals 

March 2021: finals 

June- September 2021 play the 3 team knockout tournament of 2nd place teams. Concacaf can also fit in the nations league finals in the fall of 2021 which they have stated they want to play. Maybe they can find a way to get in the rest of the gold cup qualifying games that have also been cancelled because this format only takes up 10-12 match days. 

 

[TGAA_Star]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

Here’s a wcq format that can wrap up quickly:

take the 35 teams, put them into 2 groups of 12, one of 11.

First match day: eliminate bottom 4 (12 group) or 3 teams (11 group) to get down to 3 groups of 8. Then do a straight knockout round in each section, no crossover. The winner of each section goes to the World Cup. The 3 second place teams play in a knockout tournament where the winner goes to the intercontinental playoff. 

September: early round

October: quarter finals

November: semi finals 

March 2021: finals 

June- September 2021 play the 3 team knockout tournament of 2nd place teams. Concacaf can also fit in the nations league finals in the fall of 2021 which they have stated they want to play. Maybe they can find a way to get in the rest of the gold cup qualifying games that have also been cancelled because this format only takes up 10-12 match days. 

 

Not so bad

[Daryn27]

20 hours ago, neuker said:

I love it. It just keeps getting easier and easier for Canada to qualify for Qatar. With this format we dodge both Mexico and the USA, plus we're competing with 2 Caribbean countries. That's one of the benefits of being ranked 7th and not 6th in CONCACAF. Aside from an automatic bye into the World Cup Final, it's just about perfect.

I think we should send it off to Vic Warner right away!

It only looks easier because he changed who we would play if they did groups based on Rank if they do a proper draw going right of rankings the groups would be. 

Group A                Group B               Group C
1. Mexico              2. USA               3. Costa Rica

6. El Salvador      5. Honduras      4. Jamaica 

7. Canada            8. Curaçao         9. Panama

12. Antigua          11. Trinidad       10. Haiti
 

You can’t just manipulate the pools to make it look great for Canada if this is the format. The only other way it could be different if they use this format is if they do a random draw with 4 pots of 3 teams where Canada would be in Pot 3, 

[gigi riva]

If we want to go to Qatar we have to  play who ever we are lined up against and get points against them  plus we have to play the big three Mexico USA and Costa Rica at some point  and we have to try and get points off them  simple as that

[TGAA_Star]

1 hour ago, gigi riva said:

If we want to go to Qatar we have to  play who ever we are lined up against and get points against them  plus we have to play the big three Mexico USA and Costa Rica at some point  and we have to try and get points off them  simple as that

Exactly it is put up or shut up, no more excuses