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The Road to Qatar.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Would you consider the same option if Canada had a 14 point advantage over El Salvador?

Concacaf isn't El Salvador or Canada so its irrelevant. I'm telling you not as a Canadian but I think the best thing to do from Concacaf's point of view is have a 2 leg playoff between the two teams. That's what I think. It's the right thing to do in these circumstances. That's it that's all. It would also generate some much needed revenue 

Edited by SpursFlu

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Posted (edited)

The lyrics of Long Winding road reflect the torture of my 50 year love affair with Canadian soccer, both national and club:

The long and winding road
That leads to your door
Will never disappear
I've seen that road before
It always leads me here
Leads me to you door
The wild and windy night
That the rain washed away
Has left a pool of tears
Crying for the day
Why leave me standing here
Let me know the way
Many times I've been alone
And many times I've cried
Any way you'll never know
The many ways I've tried
But still they lead me back
To the long winding road
You left me standing here
A long long time ago
Edited by MM3/MM2/MM

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On the latest episode of the Footy Prime Podcast, Danny Dichio mentions that he was brought on as an assistant coach and was working with Herdman on preparations for these games.  According to him, Trinidad made the first move and said they were unwilling to travel.  

More importantly, he mentions that Herdman is trying to launch an official complaint over this whole ridiculous qualifying process.

Listen from 50:00 to 53:00

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/bonus-episode-when-in-covid-19-hell-do-as-the-covids-do/id1482039221?i=1000468415192

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On 3/15/2020 at 2:39 AM, A Different Perspective said:

Maybe instead of trying to figure out who gets in Hex they can use this time to draw up a proper qualifying procedure to implement as this one is completely tainted whether Canada is in the Hex or not.  

This.

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An argument against these arguments is the format.  Technically you are not cancelling anything but the nations league finals if you go straight to the Hex from here.  You are just essentially moving the cut-off date up.  That can be justified a lot easier (not in my mind because I am Canadian) than not finishing a scheduled set of qualifying games. 

 If there were a qualification system for the Hex (with the same big "losers" tournament to give a kind of last chance and give smaller nations further games to play for that remote chance)  that had not finished, it would be a bigger legal deal I think.   

By the way, I forget if there was every talk of, say, the Nations League act as a direct qualifier.  You could put the winners of the groups in League A in the Hex and then have the 4 second place teams in those groups play off in the same window for the last couple places. Still have the remote chance tournament, so all the other leagues get a theoretical path. It works for us, I know but anyone see why it is actually unfair. 

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5 minutes ago, T.I.O.R. said:

I realize that all 4 of the  Salvadoreños friendlies were played prior to Montagliani implementing his new format on July 10th, 2019, however, the fact remains that the points earned by the Salvadoreños from these friendlies are what give them their 14-point advantage. Based on their activity and performance, the Salvadoreños deserve to be in the HEX.

Playing devils advocate, friendlies are only part (and statistically a less important part) of the story.  Their loss to the DR had a huge point consequence, if I recall.  And we had a better Gold Cup, if not great.

  

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Posted (edited)
On 3/17/2020 at 10:50 AM, T.I.O.R. said:

 

I don't know who is worse at math, Canadians or  Salvadoreños, but I do know is that  Salvadoreños play more friendlies than Canadians and that has proven to be the point difference that separates the two countries today.  While Canada didn't play any friendlies in 2019, the Salvadoreños played 4 friendlies during 2019; a 3-1 victory over Guatemala, a 2-0 win over Peru, a 1-0 win over Haiti, and 2-0 loss to Japan. I realize that all 4 of the  Salvadoreños friendlies were played prior to Montagliani implementing his new format on July 10th, 2019, however, the fact remains that the points earned by the Salvadoreños from these friendlies are what give them their 14-point advantage. Based on their activity and performance, the Salvadoreños deserve to be in the HEX.

The win over Haiti plus the loss to Japan combined to lose them 2 ranking points. The wins over Guatemala and Peru added together with a win over Jamaica in Nations League qualifying (which would have been worth more points than either friendly) gained them 17 points. So that is a net gain of 15 points including the Nations League match I mentioned.

For anyone curious about the difference those friendlies made.

Edited by Kent

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Well, I for one am curious.

Unfortunately, you failed to do the calculations completely. Exactly how many points did the Salvadoreños gain from their March 23rd, 2019 Nations League qualifier against Jamaica? At the time of the match in question the February 7th, 2019 FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings would have been in effect. These were as follows:

Jamaica - 1404 points

El Salvador - 1327 points

If the points from this match are subtracted from their net gain of 15 points (I'm trusting your numbers are accurate), then we will know exactly how many points the Salvadoreños gained from their friendlies in 2019.

 

I can’t remember for sure what the importance coefficient was for the Nations League qualifiers, but I think it was 10. If that is correct then they got 5.7 points for their win against Jamaica. So that means their friendlies last year netted them about 9 points.

I wish I remembered the estimated points Canada would have gotten for their Gold Cup wins against non-FIFA Nations in the last two tournaments. I would guess it is around 15-25 points for the two games combined. Apologies for the wide range. Anyways, none of this matters.

Edited by Kent

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Bison44 said:

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, Robert would have a wonderful x-mas.  

Do ifs and but riddles really apply to global pandemics?

Every league if they get the opportunity will go to mini tournaments. So should Concacaf. With so much being lost the best bet is to good to winner take all scenarios. If for no other reason to create some excitement. The " fairest" options which is subjective anyways should be making way for what's best for business 

Edited by SpursFlu

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14 minutes ago, T.I.O.R. said:

I and millions of others do think that ifs really apply to global pandemics? Just check out the following:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/germany-warned-of-10m-covid-19-cases-in-3-months/1770356

"Nearly 10 million people in Germany could become infected with coronavirus within the next three months, if strict measures to stem its spread are not implemented, the country’s disease control agency warned on Wednesday."

Which raises the question: Does anyone know if Alphonso is still in Germany?

I think im talking about Concacaf World Cup qualifying alternatives. Your taking it somewhere else

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4 hours ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Which raises the question: Does anyone know if Alphonso is still in Germany?

If he's not, it could be too late.

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8 hours ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Oh, okay. Depending on how much time is left when soccer resumes, we could replace Victor's format with the following:

Step 1 - Place the names of all 35 CONCACAF nations in a hat. Pull out the first country and pair it up with the second country out of the hat. Next take out the third country and pair that up with the fourth country. And finally pull out the fifth country and pair it up with the sixth country. The remaining 29 countries can stay in the hat. The three pairings can then play a home and home series, with the three winning countries being placed back in the hat, to make a total of 32 countries in the hat. The three losing countries are eliminated.

Step 2 - Draw 16 pairings out of the hat and have them play a series of home and home matches. The 16 winners go back in the hat and the 16 losers are eliminated.

Step 3 - Draw 8 pairings out of the hat and have them play a series of home and home matches. The 8 winners go back in the hat and the 8 losers are eliminated.

Step 4 - Draw 4 pairing out of the hat and have them play a series of home and home matches. The 4 losers are eliminated and the 4 winners can form a group where each country will play 6 matches. The top 3 will go to Qatar and the 4th place country will compete in the inter-confederation play-off.

There. Now was that so hard to figure out Vic? 14 match-days, 7 international windows. That's 4 match-days less than CONMEBOL. No need for FIFA points, CONCACAF points or all those !@#$% calculations. Let's  just duke it out on the field like we used to do in the good old days, eh!

p.s. Because I thought of it, I want the first Canada home match to be played in Victoria!

This is a terrible format

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Okay. So why not provide us with a better format?

Or, are you satisfied with the present one that Victor drafted up?

I agree with KTH, your format would never fly. We could draw USA first round then If we win, Mexico 2nd round. Meanwhile Curaçao or somebody could draw minnows all the way through and get in without doing anything.

My favoured system would be to copy Asia. Have bottom 6 teams play to get to 32 teams. 8 groups of 4. Top team in each group plus best 4 2nd place teams gives you 12 teams for 2 groups of 6. Winners of these groups go to World Cup. Runners up play each other, winner goes to World Cup, loser goes to intercontinental playoff.

I should clarify, this is what I’d like to have happened but it’s likely too late for that now. Not sure there would be enough windows to potentially do this still.
 

Maybe making 3 groups of 4 instead of 2 groups of 6 would streamline it (since each team would play 6 games instead of 10 assuming home and away with each team in your group). Winners of groups go to World Cup, top 2 runners up play each other for right to play intercontinental playoff. 14 match days, same as our current system has to go through the low seed route.

Edited by archer21

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48 minutes ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Here's where you and most others on this board differ from myself. Personally, I would consider the scenario of having to take on the USA in the first round and Mexico in the 2nd round as a "Dream Draw."

A 4-1 victory over a country like Barbados does absolutely nothing for me. Did it mean much to Canadian players after the game? Were they anywhere near as joyous as the Haitian players were after knocking us out of the Gold Cup?

Like how many Canadians really paid attention to our victories over Barbados? Maybe ask the people at OneSoccer how many pay to watch games against opponents like that? Are they money-makers? On the other hand, what was the level of interest in the CMNT when they defeated the USA in Toronto. Or, better yet, what was the interest like the last time Mexico played at BC Place? 54,798 you say.? And that was without David and Davies in the line-up!

No, unlike most I've never been afraid of a challenge. I say bring on the Yanks and the Mexicans! Remember how joyous Davies was after scoring against the USA?

Or we could just try to qualify for the World Cup, since it’s World Cup Qualifying. I don’t give a damn how I “feel” after beating Barbados as long as it’s another step to playing in Qatar.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, T.I.O.R. said:

Somewhat like "Curaçao or somebody could draw minnows all the way through and get in without doing anything" right?

I fail to see understand your argument. Your original argument seems to be that you’d rather play the best teams every round. Mine is that I want to make the World Cup. Sure, we could get an easy route in your scenario if we get a lucky draw but we could also get totally screwed. That’s not what I’m looking for.


I just want a fair shot to earn our way to the World Cup by showing we’re among the top 3-4 teams in CONCACAF. Your scenario doesn’t provide that. It makes some teams get through based on lucky draws and some get screwed by difficult draws. Let’s have the top teams decided based on merit, not numbers picked from a lottery.

Edited by archer21

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Posted (edited)

They wont change the final qualifying process because it hasn't been disrupted yet. 

I suggested which I think started this whole discussion is there is only 1 thing that has been disrupted by the this halt in play. Who will be the 6th seed in the HEX? That one important spot is the the question. Everything else has already been solidified. 

What will they now do to decide that last HEX spot and who will join the other 5 teams?

Edited by SpursFlu

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There’s no reason to change anything because nothing has been affected.... yet. We will see if there are June friendlies or not. I suspect maybe a possibility (and this is just me thinking out loud) is that fifa could make up the missed March dates in July. 

 

*im just making this up out of nowhere*

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Alex said:

There’s no reason to change anything because nothing has been affected.... yet. We will see if there are June friendlies or not. I suspect maybe a possibility (and this is just me thinking out loud) is that fifa could make up the missed March dates in July. 

 

*im just making this up out of nowhere*

The qualifying process to determine the 6th team in the HEX HAS been disrupted. There is no way to dispute that. It's a fact

You may not care, think we should just say whatever and move on. Fine. But you can't lie about reality. 

The process to determine the 6th position has been disrupted. Period, bottom line, undisputable 

Edited by SpursFlu

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