Group F Opponent Watch (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco)

[Matro25]

7 hours ago, Bertuzzi44 said:

Another thing to consider is this whole "Belgium's Golden generation failed" narrative, which I have seen talked about quite a bit in the media, might be a huge motivator for them.

Like, they are #2 in the world but no one I have seen are putting them on a shortlist for winning this World Cup. But I bet in their dressing room they might feel like they have something to prove.

People seem to forget this fact but Belgium was not a traditional powerhouse in football before this golden generation. Historically they've always been in the mix of teams you would respect but they never had an elite core that could bang with anyone on the planet.

It's their last REAL dance and I'm sure they know it. Which is why I'm not expecting an upset with them. The team we have to capitalize on is Croatia.

 

 

[Gian-Luca]

When people talk about Belgium being more motivated this time round, it might be helpful to distinguish motivation from self-belief. Especially as one of the things that our own players talk about is the sense of self-belief that Herdman instills in them, such as Alistair Johnston quote about how he was playing in League 1 Ontario a couple of years ago (a league that is no doubt 1000x more obscure than MLS is) and now feels he can take on the likes of Harry Kane.

I have no doubts Belgium will be fully motivated in this World Cup, including all of the players who will perceive this as their last chance to win. But I don't see why they wouldn't have been fully motivated in earlier tournaments where they didn't win the whole shebang, and I don't think there's been a general perception that the Belgian players haven't been fully motivated in the past (perhaps our Belgian friend can chime in on that front on what the perception within Belgium is).

Where perhaps questions can be raised is the notion of whether, since they haven't won a major tourney as yet, whether the Belgian players have the self-belief that they can win it all and truly join the "big teams" that traditionally win major tourney. I don't know whether that's the case or not, since on the one hand they did beat Brazil and knock them out of the last World Cup; but on the other hand they have lost to Argentina, Italy (twice, albeit the first time not in an elimination match) and France in the last four major tourneys all "big teams" that have (unlike Holland or England) won more than one major tourney. They also were eliminated by a Wales team in 2016 that I recall they had a lead on and which for sure they were far superior on paper. So that self-belief that they are truly championship caliber is an open question mark I think.

Of course, that probably doesn't mean much for their game against us since it is not an elimination game and since we are not one of the big teams either, and its faltering against the big teams mostly in elimination games that have been their Achilles heel (except for the notable exception of that Euro 2016 match against Wales, with all due respect to the Welsh). I don't see a lack of self-belief that they can beat us as being an issue as there is no reason to doubt that they can, but I still think its more helpful to distinguish that vs. the idea that they weren't motivated before, but now will decide to be. It's also the self-belief our team has which I think helps to give us hope of an upset.

[Unnamed Trialist]

7 hours ago, Matro25 said:

People seem to forget this fact but Belgium was not a traditional powerhouse in football before this golden generation. Historically they've always been in the mix of teams you would respect but they never had an elite core that could bang with anyone on the planet.

It's their last REAL dance and I'm sure they know it. Which is why I'm not expecting an upset with them. The team we have to capitalize on is Croatia.

For those of us a bit older, Belgium was indeed a team to be reckoned with. Their clubs were more powerful in Europe, like previously Standard and then Anderlecht, they produced great players, like Scifo and Pfaff; their WC results were pretty good. I am speaking of the 80s, only lost the semis in '86 when Maradona scored two against them.

Was just checking their WC history, however, and it made me think of us. It took many appearances starting in the 1930s before they got a win, got out of a group stage. 

I agree that this generation is their best, I can accept it.

[Blondo]

2018 was the first time this Belgium side went into a major tournament being tactically and mentally prepared for a deep run. The bench also provided more depth than before while all players in the starting line-up were in their prime (as opposed to WC2014 when we had the youngest team, well 2nd youngest after another team's late injury replacement, and EURO2016 where we even started the youngest XI in the history of the tournament). You need experienced players in order to win titles and be successful.

Being a mess, tactically, is a big no-no as well. And Wilmots was a truly woeful manager. Players, analysts, media, fans, etc. voiced their criticism of him years before he was sacked (eventually got booted out after EURO2016). Wilmots's entire plan for how to attack was "just give the ball to Hazard" (that was the plan from A to Z, everything else was left up to the players themselves, not even a simple framework). Unlike Del Bosque who protected his players and accepted responsability for Spain's early exit in 2014 Wilmots never did. Instead he threw even the youngest talents under the bus making life more difficult for himself in the process. Tbf when Wales knocked us out of EURO2016 three players in our backline had hardly any caps among them and their inexperience showed (can't prove it but I feel Wilmots didn't allow them to push up/present the Welsh wingbacks with difficult decisions). In the end it was a well-deserved win for Wales; who have been a really decent side for quite a while now but usually have been undervalued.

We were always told how great team spirit was and that also showed before Martinez took over. Martinez did instill a stronger mindset or at least it was often reported how much he stressed/worked on the self-belief aspect. Belgium did win two of the most memorable matches of WC2018 (fighting back from two goals down in the Ro16 and knocking out Brazil in the quarters). Arguably, those wouldn't have been won by a Belgium side that was weaker mentally. The comments after the loss in the semis didn't exactly reveal a lack of self-belief either, quite the opposite; some players could have been more graceful tbqh. Still the best way to develop a winner's mentality is by winning, over and over again. And Belgium have won an awful lot of games, including against big teams, with 4 years at the top of the ranking as a result. Motivation has slumped from time to time, for example KDB and Courtois have often aired their disdain for the NL and that players are being run into the ground (the lack of effort annoys me at times but hey-ho you donot become European or World champions in the NL, I guess it would be "champion of friendlies" as that's what the NL replaces). For the World Cup motivation does spike and we get word that training gets really intense. Besides the intensity, the quality of training sessions also went up when Wilmots was replaced by Martinez. According to the players the difference was night and day. Similar to WC2018 players have tried to convince us that motivation (and intensity) is sky-high again. I want to believe them once more, especially as you donot want to have regrets when you retire from international football.

I wish there was an edict that gave Belgium the divine right to win every tournament but there's simply no such thing. Brazil were the top favourite to win it all in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 yet each time those bets didn't pay off. Belgium's odds in 2018 were longer than those of Brazil (QF exit), Germany (didn't even make it out of the groups), Spain (still haven't won a World Cup KO game since 2010 and were knocked out by Russia), Argentina (Ro16), England (were beaten by the first decent team they faced and twice by Belgium), France (won the semis by the smallest of margins with Mbappe's time wasting leading to calls for stoppage time rule changes), and then, like in every tournament, you have a bunch of contenders yet they all have to face the fact only one team will be crowned champions. Belgium could have had an easier path in 2018 (England lost and were rewarded with that path instead). Belgium had even worse luck in EURO2020, a very lopsided bracket with basically all the top Elo-ranked teams on one side; and we had already suffered a lot of injuries when reaching the quarters. Over the last two Euros and two World Cups only Belgium reached at least the quarters of each of those tournaments; not all bad for such a small country.

The last World Cup was our best shot. My expectations for Qatar are a fair bit lower as indeed Belgium are on the way down and will have to bed in quite a few players in the coming years.

@Gian-Luca

[Cadeau]

Rumours about Moroccan coach being fired before the world cup picking up a bit...

https://www.ouest-france.fr/sport/football/equipe-maroc/football-vahid-halilhodzic-vire-par-le-maroc-avant-la-coupe-du-monde-e46a1700-b965-11ec-857e-054a15b86122 

"(According to Foot Mercado) Despite 18 wins, 7 ties, 2 losses, the 69 year old coach's job might be seriously under pressure for his dealings with Ziyech and Mazraoui." (I translated)

[Cadeau]

This firing would bring such joy and hope for Moroccan fans....i don't like it.

[NotCanadian]

39 minutes ago, Blondo said:

2018 was the first time this Belgium side went into a major tournament being tactically and mentally prepared for a deep run. The bench also provided more depth than before while all players in the starting line-up were in their prime (as opposed to WC2014 when we had the youngest team, well 2nd youngest after another team's late injury replacement, and EURO2016 where we even started the youngest XI in the history of the tournament). You need experienced players in order to win titles and be successful.

Being a mess, tactically, is a big no-no as well. And Wilmots was a truly woeful manager. Players, analysts, media, fans, etc. voiced their criticism of him years before he was sacked (eventually got booted out after EURO2016). Wilmots's entire plan for how to attack was "just give the ball to Hazard" (that was the plan from A to Z, everything else was left up to the players themselves, not even a simple framework). Unlike Del Bosque who protected his players and accepted responsability for Spain's early exit in 2014 Wilmots never did. Instead he threw even the youngest talents under the bus making life more difficult for himself in the process. Tbf when Wales knocked us out of EURO2016 three players in our backline had hardly any caps among them and their inexperience showed (can't prove it but I feel Wilmots didn't allow them to push up/present the Welsh wingbacks with difficult decisions). In the end it was a well-deserved win for Wales; who have been a really decent side for quite a while now but usually have been undervalued.

We were always told how great team spirit was and that also showed before Martinez took over. Martinez did instill a stronger mindset or at least it was often reported how much he stressed/worked on the self-belief aspect. Belgium did win two of the most memorable matches of WC2018 (fighting back from two goals down in the Ro16 and knocking out Brazil in the quarters). Arguably, those wouldn't have been won by a Belgium side that was weaker mentally. The comments after the loss in the semis didn't exactly reveal a lack of self-belief either, quite the opposite; some players could have been more graceful tbqh. Still the best way to develop a winner's mentality is by winning, over and over again. And Belgium have won an awful lot of games, including against big teams, with 4 years at the top of the ranking as a result. Motivation has slumped from time to time, for example KDB and Courtois have often aired their disdain for the NL and that players are being run into the ground (the lack of effort annoys me at times but hey-ho you donot become European or World champions in the NL, I guess it would be "champion of friendlies" as that's what the NL replaces). For the World Cup motivation does spike and we get word that training gets really intense. Besides the intensity, the quality of training sessions also went up when Wilmots was replaced by Martinez. According to the players the difference was night and day. Similar to WC2018 players have tried to convince us that motivation (and intensity) is sky-high again. I want to believe them once more, especially as you donot want to have regrets when you retire from international football.

I wish there was an edict that gave Belgium the divine right to win every tournament but there's simply no such thing. Brazil were the top favourite to win it all in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 yet each time those bets didn't pay off. Belgium's odds in 2018 were longer than those of Brazil (QF exit), Germany (didn't even make it out of the groups), Spain (still haven't won a World Cup KO game since 2010 and were knocked out by Russia), Argentina (Ro16), England (were beaten by the first decent team they faced and twice by Belgium), France (won the semis by the smallest of margins with Mbappe's time wasting leading to calls for stoppage time rule changes), and then, like in every tournament, you have a bunch of contenders yet they all have to face the fact only one team will be crowned champions. Belgium could have had an easier path in 2018 (England lost and were rewarded with that path instead). Belgium had even worse luck in EURO2020, a very lopsided bracket with basically all the top Elo-ranked teams on one side; and we had already suffered a lot of injuries when reaching the quarters. Over the last two Euros and two World Cups only Belgium reached at least the quarters of each of those tournaments; not all bad for such a small country.

The last World Cup was our best shot. My expectations for Qatar are a fair bit lower as indeed Belgium are on the way down and will have to bed in quite a few players in the coming years.

@Gian-Luca

Belgium's players are in their prime. A lot of  players play their best tournament football in their 30s. Ronaldo, Lewa, Benzema, Modric, Zidane etc. If your defense holds up you can win the tournament, and you're still better than Spain, Germany, Portugal etc. The only matchups that I would feel an underdog in if I were Belgian, are Brazil and France with England and Denmark being tricky. Belgium has the kind of experience where they can go through a tie without being the better team. It's time to put that to use.

[Shway]

1 hour ago, Cadeau said:

Rumours about Moroccan coach being fired before the world cup picking up a bit...

https://www.ouest-france.fr/sport/football/equipe-maroc/football-vahid-halilhodzic-vire-par-le-maroc-avant-la-coupe-du-monde-e46a1700-b965-11ec-857e-054a15b86122 

"(According to Foot Mercado) Despite 18 wins, 7 ties, 2 losses, the 69 year old coach's job might be seriously under pressure for his dealings with Ziyech and Mazraoui." (I translated)

This is massive news...for Moroccan fans.

[Unnamed Trialist]

@Blondo thanks for the summary. 

As a longtime Spain fan, I knew how it was before the WC win, the mentality was poor and there was a sense that destiny would see Spain lose in quarter finals almost always. There was an inferiority complex, despite strong club teams and great players. Improper way of playing as well, based on emotions and not channelling talent well. But I think it is fair to say that there was this accumulating feeling that Spain had to get over the hump and win something big. A whole set of factors helped, including having other Spaniards win big in other sports (tennis, golf, motorsport), or having the Olympics: a general overall culture of winning in Spanish sport culture.

Winning Euros helped a lot in the lead up (hadn't since the 60s), another factor. 

I think in world football the only team we could say "deserves" a WC but has not won is Netherlands (though I really do not like how they play over the last 15 years or so). Belgium is not there yet, simply because it has not had the consistency and has not won the Euros, only played one final. So you have a golden generation, but if that happens, then win a European Championship, or a Nations League, play finals: get that close. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[Free kick]

Regarding the Golden generation.   Prior to this latest group of elite player, Belgium had a short stint of missing the WC's of 2010 and 2006.  

 But prior to that point, they had a very impressive string of constantly qualifying for the World cup's and almost always making it to the round of sixteen.  Right up there with the sides we often think of as the European super powers.    I always viewed them as one of the most underrated and under appreciated sides in the world and hence, when watching the WC as a  neutral,  other than Italy, they become one of the sides I rooted for.   They made the semi finals in 1986 beating Spain in quarters.   Enzo Schifo was emblematic of this through the fact that this side and him, did not get their dues,  I found him to be really entertaining player to watch, but rarely would his name come as one of the world's elite.  There were several others in the same boat on those squads. 

When the world cup rolled around every fourth year, the media (and pundits) in Canada covering the world cup, too often overlooked Belgium in my opinion.  They would just get press clipping from the UK or the FIFA media guide and read them on air.  So Belgium was just another side in the WC.  But that only changed with this latest group from 2014 and 2018.   Then when i saw them ranked #1 in the world ranking, it was a bit head scratcher to be honest.

In short, i don't think that this is country that will drop off the international soccer map once the latest group retires. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Free kick

[Free kick]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

@Blondo thanks for the summary. 

As a longtime Spain fan, I knew how it was before the WC win, the mentality was poor and there was a sense that destiny would see Spain lose in quarter finals almost always. There was an inferiority complex, despite strong club teams and great players. Improper way of playing as well, based on emotions and not channelling talent well. But I think it is fair to say that there was this accumulating feeling that Spain had to get over the hump and win something big. A whole set of factors helped, including having other Spaniards win big in other sports (tennis, golf, motorsport), or having the Olympics: a general overall culture of winning in Spanish sport culture.

Winning Euros helped a lot in the lead up (hadn't since the 60s), another factor. 

I think in world football the only team we could say "deserves" a WC but has not won is Netherlands (though I really do not like how they play over the last 15 years or so). Belgium is not there yet, simply because it has not had the consistency and has not won the Euros, only played one final. So you have a golden generation, but if that happens, then win a European Championship, or a Nations League, play finals: get that close. 

Other than the fact that Spain won the WC in 2010,  if you look at appearances at the WC and records,  Belgium's performance and record is not all that different from Spain.  I could argue its better.  And better than Holland, who i always thought was a bit over rated.

 

National team appearances in the FIFA World Cup - Wikipedia

Edited April 22, 2022 by Free kick

[Unnamed Trialist]

48 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Other than the fact that Spain won the WC in 2010,  if you look at appearances at the WC and records,  Belgium's performance and record is not all that different from Spain.  I could argue its better.  And better than Holland, who i always thought was a bit over rated.

 

National team appearances in the FIFA World Cup - Wikipedia

Could agree with Spain, although Spain won Euros in 1964. Then again in 2008, so Belgium is not that near. The theory is often you have to play finals to win them. 

But not Netherlands, who lost two finals probably deserving more in the 70s. And have also won the Euros. 

Apart from Spanish and Dutch club results being miles ahead. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[ImYourKeeper]

On 4/19/2022 at 12:39 AM, Free kick said:

Three delta factors for me to watch out for:

1) Yes, the experience factor is one thing that could be our undoing.   Sides who show up at the world cup for the first time or after a long absence rarely make waves at the WC the first time.    When its been 36 years, there is nothing you can carry over from that experience into 2022.

2) The play at the world cup is much more defensive and the teams are much more defensively sound and tactically more refined.   This is the main problem, In my opinion, with CONCACAF.    We scored a lot against CONCACAF opposition, but a lot of our goals could just as easily be chalked to poor defensive play or structure on the part of our opposition.  That's not going to happen in the group we are in in Qatar.  Plus there is Thibault Courtois.

3) We don't really have a true set piece specialist.   I know that Eustaquio takes our set pieces but (despite his invaluable quality in other areas)  I don't find his direct free kicks at all threatening.  I don't think we have anybody on our MNT who is counted on to take free kicks at their own club.   Just about every other team in Qatar will have a number 10 and that's usually the guy who is the set piece specialist.   I Don't expect easy cheap goals like the ones in Edmonton against Mexico.   If the scoring chances dry up (as expected) in Qatar due to better opposition, scoring off of set pieces is going be more and more important.  

In what realistic world do you see us finishing 1st?  Our top players are more regressing (David/Davies injury/Atiba's age/Eustaquio's lack of playing time, etc) than progressing right now, and the European teams in our group have so much more experience than us.  Realistically we were fortunate to be in CONCACAF when most of the nations are their weakest in quite some time.  I'm a massive Canada fan and went to every game in Ontario for WCQ, but I'm also realistic.  I think we finish 3rd most likely, but could also see 4th.  Morocco aren't awful either

[Free kick]

4 minutes ago, ImYourKeeper said:

In what realistic world do you see us finishing 1st?  Our top players are more regressing (David/Davies injury/Atiba's age/Eustaquio's lack of playing time, etc) than progressing right now, and the European teams in our group have so much more experience than us.  Realistically we were fortunate to be in CONCACAF when most of the nations are their weakest in quite some time.  I'm a massive Canada fan and went to every game in Ontario for WCQ, but I'm also realistic.  I think we finish 3rd most likely, but could also see 4th.  Morocco aren't awful either

I dont have any scenario whereby we finish first.   You are kind of making points that agree with me but its sounds like you are disagreeing with my comments, even though i am kind of saying the same thing

 

[Bertuzzi44]

Belgium also walked their WCQ group unbeaten and with a +25 GD through 8 matches! 

I think that Belgium will top the group. From a Canadian perspective I agree with what someone mentioned earlier that the Croatia game is huge. If we lose to Belgium (which I expect) AND lose to Croatia then we cannot advance. Getting a point from Croatia would be massive and give us a shot vs Morocco, who are also very strong.

Damm, the more I think about it the more I realize our group is really tough! 

[ensco]

46 minutes ago, Bertuzzi44 said:

Belgium also walked their WCQ group unbeaten and with a +25 GD through 8 matches! 

Belgium were +19 not +25, and had an easy group, they beat up on Belarus and Estonia, against whom they were +14.
 

They did have a problem giving up early goals in the first few qualifying matches, which is interesting. But they always did do what they needed to do, comfortably.
 

Not sure we can say much of anything based on that campaign. They were and are a top team, but didn’t really that do much, or have to do much, to get to Qatar.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_Group_E

I kind of like that they cruised into this. They will be fixated on what happens after the group stage…

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by ensco

[Bertuzzi44]

41 minutes ago, ensco said:

Belgium were +19 not +25, and had an easy group, they beat up on Belarus and Estonia, against whom they were +14.

 

Whoops yes +19 not +25. But I would not say their group was easy compared to other groups. The "worse" teams in their group - Estonia and Belarus - are better than the worse teams in almost any other group. Group I had Andorra and San Marino, group F had Faroe Islands and Moldova and group g had Latvia and Gibraltor! 

[TOcanadafan]

1 hour ago, Bertuzzi44 said:

Whoops yes +19 not +25. But I would not say their group was easy compared to other groups. The "worse" teams in their group - Estonia and Belarus - are better than the worse teams in almost any other group. Group I had Andorra and San Marino, group F had Faroe Islands and Moldova and group g had Latvia and Gibraltor! 

And all these bottom feeder teams are a lot worse than Jamaica and Honduras.  I’m not going to argue that Belgium and Croatia aren’t favourites, but we have a legitimate chance of coming out of this group.  This is International tournament football so discrepancies in ‘talent’ are highly lessened, and favourites choke.

[TGAA_Star]

On 4/22/2022 at 6:38 AM, Cadeau said:

Rumours about Moroccan coach being fired before the world cup picking up a bit...

https://www.ouest-france.fr/sport/football/equipe-maroc/football-vahid-halilhodzic-vire-par-le-maroc-avant-la-coupe-du-monde-e46a1700-b965-11ec-857e-054a15b86122 

"(According to Foot Mercado) Despite 18 wins, 7 ties, 2 losses, the 69 year old coach's job might be seriously under pressure for his dealings with Ziyech and Mazraoui." (I translated)

But if they fire him and those 2 players come back into the fold for Morocco, Canada are in trouble 

[ImYourKeeper]

On 4/22/2022 at 3:11 PM, Free kick said:

I dont have any scenario whereby we finish first.   You are kind of making points that agree with me but its sounds like you are disagreeing with my comments, even though i am kind of saying the same thing

 

Yes, sorry!  My comment was also meant for the commenter you were replying to, not to you.  That's my fault

[TGAA_Star]

Plus Canada facing Croatia is not going to be an easy game either 

[scooterlawrence5]

200 to 1 odds for Canada

SOURCE:  https://www.squawka.com/en/canada-odds-to-win-2022-world-cup-how-far-will-they-go-top-scorer/

 

[Cadeau]

Charlie Davies (ex US int'l and part of the In Soccer We Trust podcast called our group the real group of death.

[Unnamed Trialist]

I personally don't think this is a group of death, because everyone just expects us and Morocco to be dead.

That is not how groups of death work, I think you need three powerhouses at least. We don't have that. In fact I think there is no group of death in this draw. 

For me it is just what most are saying and hoping, a group where it may be harder for the favourites to go through than it may seem. 

[TOcanadafan]

On 4/26/2022 at 9:59 PM, Unnamed Trialist said:

I personally don't think this is a group of death, because everyone just expects us and Morocco to be dead.

I agree that there are no groups of death, but it’s mainly the Euro snobs giving Canada and Morocco no chance… those who always predict every European team to make it out of their group.  If Morocco gets their big guns back in the fold, this is the most difficult group from 1-4.