Group F Opponent Watch (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco)

[Gian-Luca]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

It's been a busy day. 

So what is your prematch fantasy scenario for taking down Croats and Belgians?

I don't know...Atiba Hutchinson taking De Bruyne to task for "Tintin in the Congo" being racist? Alistair Johnston quoting the entirety of Monty Python's "Belgian Prejudice" skit at Axel Witsel? Kamal Miller telling Perisic that he's lucky Pulisic chose to play for the US instead of Croatia or his ass would be nailed to the bench?

 

[GasPed]

7 hours ago, Brozosexual said:

LWB Sosa has plenty of top or thereabouts clubs after him, including Bayern, Chelsea, Man Utd, Barca, Spurs. He'll move this summer, probably to one of those. Since he'll surely ask for starting spot and game time guarantees, in case of Bayern that would probably mean Davies becomes a winger. Don't know if that makes sense but apparently Naglesmann really likes Sosa. Personally find it more likely Sosa moves to the Prem.

Sosa is definitely an elite LB/LWB.  As far as Bayern goes though, the word is that Nagelsmann will be trying to implement his 3-5-2 next year, and so there's only room for one LWB - i.e. the current best in the world at that position.  So they'll be passing on Sosa (well, at least that's the word from the tabloids 😉). 

[eramosat]

22 hours ago, Mitchryan11 said:

canada only really has a legitamate chance against moracco

I would agree, if legitimate chance implies, say, at least 40% chance of winning.  I would not rate the chances v Belgium or Croatia better...but this is why the games are played and not pretended!!!

Go Canucks.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

4 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

I don't know...Atiba Hutchinson taking De Bruyne to task for "Tintin in the Congo" being racist? Alistair Johnston quoting the entirety of Monty Python's "Belgian Prejudice" skit at Axel Witsel? Kamal Miller telling Perisic that he's lucky Pulisic chose to play for the US instead of Croatia or his ass would be nailed to the bench?

Have you ever actually played soccer? Winding up your opponent to throw him off a bit like the Materazzi sister comment is just something that happens but people are not seeing the wood for the trees by narrowly fixating on that angle.

The more important point I was making is that strange things can and do happen sometimes in soccer games so you should never go into a game with a defeatist attitude. Keep battling because you never know what could be just around the corner...

Edited May 13, 2022 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Unnamed Trialist]

6 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

I don't know...Atiba Hutchinson taking De Bruyne to task for "Tintin in the Congo" being racist? Alistair Johnston quoting the entirety of Monty Python's "Belgian Prejudice" skit at Axel Witsel? Kamal Miller telling Perisic that he's lucky Pulisic chose to play for the US instead of Croatia or his ass would be nailed to the bench?

 

We're doomed. 

[Sal333]

5 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Have you ever actually played soccer? Winding up your opponent to throw him off a bit like the Materazzi sister comment is just something that happens but people are not seeing the wood for the trees by narrowly fixating on that angle.

The more important point I was making is that strange things can and do happen sometimes in soccer games so you should never go into a game with a defeatist attitude. Keep battling because you never know what could be just around the corner...

The problem with trying to predict Canada's results in their WC group is that no one really knows with any certainty how good or mediocre this Canadian team really is.

Normally the FIFA rankings give you a decent idea but Canada is the decadal exception in this case. The rankings really can't give you any idea. At the start of 2021 Canada was 94th if memory serves me. After a year of WC qualifying they're 38th. During that period they tied both Mexico and the states in away games and beat both those nations at home. Currently those countries are ranked by FIFA 9th and 15th respectively.  

So is Canada ranked 38th because they started so far behind and haven't played enough games to reach their mean or has Canada reached their mean and those results against Mexico and the USA are just meaningless blips on the radar?

Personally, I think this Canadian squad can beat Mexico and the USA on a regular basis. In other words of the three nations I think Canada is the best squad in the region. Now the question remains how representative of Mexico and the USA are those FIFA rankings? I would argue they give us a decent idea of where those two nations fall in the world soccer hierarchy and both those nations are in the top 15 group with Mexico in 9th place. 

I'll stick my neck out and say that THIS Canadian squad is a top 10 team if and only if we are not saddled with injuries and/or absentees. So I expect them to make it to the round of 16 but anything after that is a bonus in my books.

 

 

[Gian-Luca]

6 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Have you ever actually played soccer? Winding up your opponent to throw him off a bit like the Materazzi sister comment is just something that happens but people are not seeing the wood for the trees by narrowly fixating on that angle.

The more important point I was making is that strange things can and do happen sometimes in soccer games so you should never go into a game with a defeatist attitude. Keep battling because you never know what could be just around the corner...

Yes I have, and what's more, I've also played with a sense of offbeat humour, which is often the same way that I post. Back in 2001 I once posted that I wanted to see De Rosario line-up during the Canadian national anthem wearing a Klingon uniform. Nothing has changed in that regard (by this, I also mean that I still want to see Dwayne in a Klingon outfit). Nothing to get worked up about.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Wasn't worked up in the least just wondered where you were going with that last post as it seemed a bit weird. I doubt Luka Modric would get too worked if a CMNT player said something similar to Materazzi's response to Zidane to him in Serbo-Croat because people from that part of the world say stuff like that all the time to the point that it loses any possible shock value. Tends to be mothers that are the target of it more than sisters.

Edited May 13, 2022 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Unnamed Trialist]

59 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Wasn't worked up in the least just wondered where you were going with that last post as it seemed a bit weird. I doubt Luka Modric would get too worked if a CMNT player said something similar to Materazzi's response to Zidane to him in Serbo-Croat because people from that part of the world say stuff like that all the time to the point that it loses any possible shock value. Tends to be mothers that are the target of it more than sisters.

People in Spain say extreme insults in tender ways all the time, and basically no one fights over such things. Only if you say "me cago en la madre que te parió" to a ref will you get a red and a few games. Because no one ever says that to a ref the way they say it to their 4-year old niece at her birthday party.

The team I have seen get its back up and start little rumbles for assinine stuff most in recent history is Canada. The whole business with Mexico at the corner with Henry was totally childish. Mind you, if either PSG or Man City had used half of Canada's newfound shithousery late in their 2nd legs vs. Real Madrid, one or the other would be playing a Champions League final in a few weeks.

[Sal333]

20 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

People in Spain say extreme insults in tender ways all the time, and basically no one fights over such things. Only if you say "me cago en la madre que te parió" to a ref will you get a red and a few games. Because no one ever says that to a ref the way they say it to their 4-year old niece at her birthday party.

The team I have seen get its back up and start little rumbles for assinine stuff most in recent history is Canada. The whole business with Mexico at the corner with Henry was totally childish. Mind you, if either PSG or Man City had used half of Canada's newfound shithousery late in their 2nd legs vs. Real Madrid, one or the other would be playing a Champions League final in a few weeks.

That wasn't Mexico. It was Panama.

All the Panamanian had to do was ask Henry to move. He didn't though did he? He immediately escalated it to a confrontation and tried to push him.  It wasn't childish. It was a psychological victory that unnerved the Panamanian team.

First you say it's childish and asinine and then you opine that if PSG and Man City had the same shithousery they would have more success. Well, which is it? A childish, asinine tactic or a successful one?

[Gian-Luca]

17 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

That wasn't Mexico. It was Panama.

True, but his recollection being inaccurate is understandable because our team got into so many fights that it is difficult to remember them all (until the last window, when we'd already de facto qualified by the start). There was a fight against Mexico which started in the corner, but it was our corner this time, one of the Mexican defenders was holding on to the ball, wasting his own team's time with it when Tajon punched it out of his hands while the defender was arguing (my guess in Spanish) with Cavallini. I am unable to tell whether either player said me cago en la madre que te parió though:

 

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

12 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

True, but his recollection being inaccurate is understandable because our team got into so many fights that it is difficult to remember them all (until the last window, when we'd already de facto qualified by the start). There was a fight against Mexico which started in the corner, but it was our corner this time, one of the Mexican defenders was holding on to the ball, wasting his own team's time with it when Tajon punched it out of his hands while the defender was arguing (my guess in Spanish) with Cavallini. I am unable to tell whether either player said me cago en la madre que te parió though:

 

 

I mix up a lot of stuff.

We need someone to put together an all Canadian shithousery video.

It is great how Tajon creates this scenario where the Mexican is frustrated and gets carded about a minute after the first incident. Also love how the Mexican bench is mouthing "tu puta madre", but timidly, defeated. 

We need a video including these goalkeeper "injuries" working as official timeouts, Laryea complaining about being spit on, the Henry yellow early vs Mexico. It is quite funny all of it. 

And yes, it can also be childish, very often is. The point is to interrupt the rival's momentum, take them out of their game plan, create internal frustrations. The refs almost always let us get away with it too, one of the biggest surprises of the whole campaign.

[Gian-Luca]

10 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I mix up a lot of stuff.

We need someone to put together an all Canadian shithousery video.

It is great how Tajon creates this scenario where the Mexican is frustrated and gets carded about a minute after the first incident. Also love how the Mexican bench is mouthing "tu puta madre", but timidly, defeated. 

We need a video including these goalkeeper "injuries" working as official timeouts, Laryea complaining about being spit on, the Henry yellow early vs Mexico. It is quite funny all of it. 

And yes, it can also be childish, very often is. The point is to interrupt the rival's momentum, take them out of their game plan, create internal frustrations. The refs almost always let us get away with it too, one of the biggest surprises of the whole campaign.

I think my favourite part of that video may be at 3:58 when Davies can be seen dancing like a giddy 8 year old while there is a post-match brawl happening behind his back involving every other squad member plus the coaching staffs of both teams. Its glorious.

I don't know that we are going to see this stuff against Belgium, Croatia or Morrocco though. We don't have a rivalry with any of them, so unless they start trash-talking us before the tourney starts, I'm not sure we will see the same type of emotion. The tourney is more likely to be about gaining respect than seeking vengeance. But I could be wrong.

 

[Sal333]

36 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

True, but his recollection being inaccurate is understandable because our team got into so many fights that it is difficult to remember them all (until the last window, when we'd already de facto qualified by the start). There was a fight against Mexico which started in the corner, but it was our corner this time, one of the Mexican defenders was holding on to the ball, wasting his own team's time with it when Tajon punched it out of his hands while the defender was arguing (my guess in Spanish) with Cavallini. I am unable to tell whether either player said me cago en la madre que te parió though:

 

 

The reason why the CMNT got into so many confrontations is because most of CONCACA in the past was used to playing a meek, polite team that never pushed back. This time they did push back and took no crap and it surprised the opposing teams.  And the opposing teams couldn't back down.

I'll bet you in the coming Nation League and Gold Cup games CONCACA will not try to intimidate the Canadian team. because they know if the try they're gonna get push back.

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Gian-Luca said:

I think my favourite part of that video may be at 3:58 when Davies can be seen dancing like a giddy 8 year old while there is a post-match brawl happening behind his back involving every other squad member plus the coaching staffs of both teams. Its glorious.

I don't know that we are going to see this stuff against Belgium, Croatia or Morrocco though. We don't have a rivalry with any of them, so unless they start trash-talking us before the tourney starts, I'm not sure we will see the same type of emotion. The tourney is more likely to be about gaining respect than seeking vengeance. But I could be wrong.

 

If we are drawing late vs. Belgium I sure as hell hope it does happen, anything to preserve the result. 

Oddly, though we would want our Belgian rivals to have injuries, sanctioned players and then take reds against us, it is in our interest for them to be healthy and with everyone available for their next matches. Belgium's last Nations League match in September is vs. Netherlands, hope they beat the living crap out of each other.

 

[GasPed]

6 hours ago, Sal333 said:

Personally, I think this Canadian squad can beat Mexico and the USA on a regular basis. In other words of the three nations I think Canada is the best squad in the region. Now the question remains how representative of Mexico and the USA are those FIFA rankings? I would argue they give us a decent idea of where those two nations fall in the world soccer hierarchy and both those nations are in the top 15 group with Mexico in 9th place. 

I would actually argue that of the three North American teams, Mexico is probably the worst right now.  That said, it's not clear-cut and it's probably more a case of 1a, 1b, 1c.

But the real question is whether Mexico and the US are really 9 and 15 in the world.  And right now, in my honest opinion, I don't think they are.  I mean Mexico over Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay... ...I just don't see it at all.  Maybe the US is 15, but I personally think if they played Croatia (ranked 16) over 5 games they would probably go something like 1-1-3.  Croatia's starting lineup primarily consists of players who all play in the Big 5 and start for their teams.  Neither the US, nor Mexico (nor us for that matter) are like that.

I mean we won't know for sure until we play these European teams, but I'm not confident we're really a top 15, top 20 or even a top 30 team.  Ok, I do think we're in the top 30 (as are Mexico and US) but that still makes us underdogs in our group.

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 hours ago, GasPed said:

I would actually argue that of the three North American teams, Mexico is probably the worst right now.  That said, it's not clear-cut and it's probably more a case of 1a, 1b, 1c.

But the real question is whether Mexico and the US are really 9 and 15 in the world.  And right now, in my honest opinion, I don't think they are.  I mean Mexico over Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay... ...I just don't see it at all.  Maybe the US is 15, but I personally think if they played Croatia (ranked 16) over 5 games they would probably go something like 1-1-3.  Croatia's starting lineup primarily consists of players who all play in the Big 5 and start for their teams.  Neither the US, nor Mexico (nor us for that matter) are like that.

I mean we won't know for sure until we play these European teams, but I'm not confident we're really a top 15, top 20 or even a top 30 team.  Ok, I do think we're in the top 30 (as are Mexico and US) but that still makes us underdogs in our group.

The US and Mexico rankings are based on winning regional trophies. You take Gold Cups and now Nations League and you get to finals and win them. Over decades. 

We do that and we'll be top 20-25, and if we or others start sharing Concacaf spoils the US and Mexican rankings will slip. 

[GasPed]

15 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The US and Mexico rankings are based on winning regional trophies. You take Gold Cups and now Nations League and you get to finals and win them. Over decades. 

We do that and we'll be top 20-25, and if we or others start sharing Concacaf spoils the US and Mexican rankings will slip. 

I agree.  I think that Mexico and the US have benefited from beating up routinely and frequently on Concacaf minnows over the decades.  I don't really have a way of proving that (maybe someone smarter than me could), but that's my belief.  Furthermore, I agree that our ascent could well mean they decline and we all end up around 20 - 30.  Now as to whether that's a legit ranking relative to say Europe, it's still a good/open question...

[Kent]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The US and Mexico rankings are based on winning regional trophies. You take Gold Cups and now Nations League and you get to finals and win them. Over decades. 

We do that and we'll be top 20-25, and if we or others start sharing Concacaf spoils the US and Mexican rankings will slip. 

I recently started (but haven't completed) a spreadsheet that tracks the total ranking points for each confederation over time, since the new ranking system was implemented (which was after the 2018 World Cup). From what I have seen so far, there is very little movement until there is a confederation championship, since you don't lose points for losing knockout games, the points within the confederation grows.

I am really curious to see what happens after World Cups over a few tournaments. Which regions are gaining points, and which are losing points. Probably Europe will continue to grow due to the knockout round rule I mentioned about not losing points, and they always have several in the knockouts. But I am curious to see how CONCACAF, AFC, and CAF do. Do they all lose points? Do someo of them gain points? Because really, the World Cup is the chance to grow the pool of points in your confederation at the expense of other confederations.

But you are right, the Gold Cups are definitely a factor in USA and Mexico's ranking. The fact that USA literally hosts it every time and Mexico is a de facto host as well, gives them an advantage in the ranking system. That puts them around pot 2 for the World Cup which increases their chances of getting good results. So although yes, they do get good results in the World Cup, would they get those same results if they were a pot 3 or 4 team rather than pot 2? It's hard to say with any certainty.

[Sal333]

12 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The US and Mexico rankings are based on winning regional trophies. You take Gold Cups and now Nations League and you get to finals and win them. Over decades. 

We do that and we'll be top 20-25, and if we or others start sharing Concacaf spoils the US and Mexican rankings will slip. 

 

12 hours ago, GasPed said:

I agree.  I think that Mexico and the US have benefited from beating up routinely and frequently on Concacaf minnows over the decades.  I don't really have a way of proving that (maybe someone smarter than me could), but that's my belief.  Furthermore, I agree that our ascent could well mean they decline and we all end up around 20 - 30.  Now as to whether that's a legit ranking relative to say Europe, it's still a good/open question...

There's a mathematical flaw in your thinking. FIFA has adjusted for cases where regional powerhouses play only local minnows. You're both saying that Mexico and the States are ranked  high because they're garnering points from weak competition. The problem is the points to be had against weak CONCACA teams is not enough to keep those two teams in 9th and 15th place. I think you are both devaluing the overall strength of the CONCACA region.

Having said that, I would agree that they are slightly overrated. The optimal word is slightly. Overrated as both those teams are I still see them ranked between 20th and 10th place.

[Unnamed Trialist]

2 hours ago, Sal333 said:

 

There's a mathematical flaw in your thinking. FIFA has adjusted for cases where regional powerhouses play only local minnows. You're both saying that Mexico and the States are ranked  high because they're garnering points from weak competition. The problem is the points to be had against weak CONCACA teams is not enough to keep those two teams in 9th and 15th place. I think you are both devaluing the overall strength of the CONCACA region.

Having said that, I would agree that they are slightly overrated. The optimal word is slightly. Overrated as both those teams are I still see them ranked between 20th and 10th place.

I wasn't arguing that the US and Mexico rankings were based on minnows, to be clear.

It is based on 1-regularly winning high value confederation championships; 2-not being regularly beaten in official matches by teams lower than them in the rankings; 3-qualifying for the World Cup where you pick up points in the qualifying process and then can pick up more with a few results.

The odd circumstance in Concacaf is that the main two teams win almost every Gold Cup. Even in South America, with two clearly dominant teams, other teams win Copa America with certain frequency (over the last ten editions, Colombia, Chile and Uruguay have also won). For Costa Rica to not have won the GC in all these years where they've been a competitive side is unusual. Surely always playing in the States, where the US is comfortable and Mexico has massive support, is a factor. Take Copa America, Colombia won in the edition they hosted in 2001 we were invited to but chickened out on; Chile won at home in 2014. The only times Bolivia and Peru won they were playing at home.

As mentioned, if any 2 or 3 Concacaf countries would even occasionally break the monopoly of the US and Mexico, their rankings would slip a bit, and others would rise. Indeed, Costa Rica was ranked mid teens from their WC performance in 2014 and for the next 4 years. Over that period the US was in the 20s, below them. That scenario would be more normal, and if we could perform well enough to win a GC and a NL every decade, regularly beat our Concacaf rivals, then we'd be a region of Pot 2-3 teams. The best slightly lower, and the next tier higher.

Edited May 14, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[longlugan]

On 5/13/2022 at 2:07 AM, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Have you ever actually played soccer? Winding up your opponent to throw him off a bit like the Materazzi sister comment is just something that happens but people are not seeing the wood for the trees by narrowly fixating on that angle.

The more important point I was making is that strange things can and do happen sometimes in soccer games so you should never go into a game with a defeatist attitude. Keep battling because you never know what could be just around the corner...

You're a bag of hammers.

[Brozosexual]

On 5/1/2022 at 12:58 PM, Brozosexual said:

Hey guys, I'm a Croat as well as some of the other guys here. You're right that Vida and Lovren aren't our first choice CBs anymore. There's probably a question mark about Lovren as a starter, though I think the consensus is that Ćaleta-Car should objectively get the nod from Dalić. Vida definitely isn't a starter, his position has been firmly seized by Gvardiol.

There's another young CB, though, who hasn't yet! been called up for the national team, but it's only a matter of time. Josip Šutalo (just turned 22) from Dinamo Zagreb (biggest Croatian club, also where Gvardiol came from) has, imo, been the best defender this season in the Croatian league. Currently flying under the radar but certain ITKs around Europe who are familiar with the Croatian league would concur with me that he's among the absolute top CB prospects in Europe atm. Currently the club's biggest project, though there are rumours of him potentially moving to Lazio already this summer. So if he gets called up, which, imo, he will, Croatia's backline could be even more mobile come the World Cup.

To follow up on that last point, personally I'm under the impression that people outside Croatia erroneously think the WC delay until winter goes against Croatia's chances because of our age, but I'm firmly of the opinion it actually goes in our favour by allowing certain young players to further develop and establish themselves in the national team until then. Our oldest players (Modrić and Perišić), on the other hand, are still playing at the top level and half a year won't see them decline in any significant way. In fact Perišić is probably having the season of his career and is at his absolute peak right now.

The consensus here is that although we obviously lost some legends like Mandžukić, Subašić and Rakitić, our first team is actually more coherent and balanced (elite-level-ball-playing backline to complement the dominant midfield, which is great for our possession game, as well as their ability to play a high line and thus make us more compact while controlling games) and our squad has much more quality depth than last time around. Pretty much the only problematic position for us is CF, but I'm hopeful of Petar Musa getting a chance if he continues the same way he's been playing this season. There are also stong rumours of him moving to Benfica this summer as a replacement for Darwin Nunez's departure.

In relation to Canada, I think your best chances to advance are actually at the expense of Belgium. Morocco is also a potential choke game for the Belgians for cultural reasons.

Šutalo and Musa called up for the upcoming Nations League games in June. Erlić, defender from Serie A also in the squad for the first time (though more in the Vida mould, solid but not that good with the ball), as well as Rijeka goalkeeper Labrović. Happy to see those two as well.

Vušković from HSV also received a stand by, which means he could get in if any of the CBs on our list get injured. Also, hope his team can win their upcoming playoff games against Hertha for Bundesliga promotion.

This is actually the best squad by Dalić in literally ages. He's on his game.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Brozosexual

[TGAA_Star]

13 minutes ago, Brozosexual said:

Šutalo and Musa called up for the upcoming Nations League games in June. Erlić, defender from Serie A also in the squad for the first time (though more in the Vida mould, solid but not that good with he ball), as well as Rijeka goalkeeper Labrović. Happy to see those as well.

Vušković from HSV also received a stand by, which means he could get in if any of the CBs on our list get injured. Also, hope his team can win their upcoming playoff games against Hertha for Bundesliga promotion.

This is the actually the best squad by Dalić in literally ages. He's on his game.

To think Canada has to face this team in our 2nd group game at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar right after our opening game against Belgium...we will be lucky to get results against Belgium or even Croatia for that matter

[Brozosexual]

32 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

To think Canada has to face this team in our 2nd group game at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar right after our opening game against Belgium...we will be lucky to get results against Belgium or even Croatia for that matter

This is pretty much the team I see going to the WC. Everything else would be small changes due to form and injuries. Lovren instead of one of the younger guys (Stanišić, Erlić), or alternatively Vušković if Vida or someone else is injured.

I don't really see any changes in the midfield. Sučić can't stop scoring in Austria (got another one yesterday), he's definitely in. I see Vlašić going to Qatar as well, thogh a lot will depend on his club situation next season. If that isn't sorted we could see Ivanušec potentially getting called up ahead of him. 

The only potential change upfront could be Šimić, which is a longshot at the moment, but he's supposed to be Salzburg's number 9 come next season. If he hits the ground running, we could see him clinch a spot at the expense of either Budimir or Musa, contingent of how they open their seasons.

As for the upcoming Nations League, the U21 players will first go play with their U21 team to secure the first place in their group and will then join our A team. This could already be done on the 3rd if they win their first game against Norway.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Brozosexual