Group F Opponent Watch (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco)

[Floortom]

6 minutes ago, Kent said:

OK, here are the chances of us advancing or finishing first based on today's Belgium/Morocco result, assuming all results are equally likely. I should have done this before the game started, but, here we are at halftime.

Belgium vs Morocco draw
Canada advance - 30.2%
Canada 1st - 8.6%

Belgium beats Morocco
Canada advance - 30.9%
Canada 1st - 1.9%

Morocco beats Belgium
Canada advance - 24%
Canada 1st - 12.9%

So there isn't a clear best result. I will add though, if Canada beats Croatia today, our chances of advancing are 64.4%!

 the 30.9% probability from Belgium beats morocco is doesn’t take into account that the last match for Belgium would be relatively unimportant and they might not exert full effort vs Croatia.  That’s why I think a draw here is clear beer scenario. Leaves Belgium with the need to not lose vs Croatia

[Hawkguy]

Well Morocco takes a 1-0 lead... which according to the above chart makes it harder for us.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Hawkguy

[NotCanadian]

Bravo to Canada for scoring your first World Cup goal  and playing as every underdog should. It sucks that the deciding game ended up being against us and I hope you guys get a victory in your match for honor.

Good luck from a Croat. P.S. The off the field rivalry was unexpected but memorable.

[Copes]

3 hours ago, NotCanadian said:

Bravo to Canada for scoring your first World Cup goal  and playing as every underdog should. It sucks that the deciding game ended up being against us and I hope you guys get a victory in your match for honor.

Good luck from a Croat. P.S. The off the field rivalry was unexpected but memorable.

Hope you guys go deep! Didn't see the off-field rivalry coming but it certainly made for an interesting few days! 

[Ruud]

Happy to see Belgium go out Thursday and Maroc advance despite a loss to us 

[youllneverwalkalone]

So if we were to win 2-0 and Belgium were to lose 2-0, we would finish 3rd in the group?

I find goal difference as the first tie breaker not super fair, but I'll take it in this case.

[Stryker911]

In the updated rankings our opponents are 4, 7, and 11. No doubt in that case our group was the group of death.