CPL General

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

...and you are probably called Duane, but even he appears to have grown wise to it by this point and is no longer breathlessly blogging and podcasting whatever propaganda line he is being fed.

Best case scenario. They change the business plan somewhat to something Tom Fath thinks is sustainable and all the ducks finally line up neatly in a row early in the New Year for a 2019 launch to all be revealed at a time of the CSA's choosing. Worst case scenario. It has all begun to unravel because they can't agree on the business plan due to irreconcilable differences and/or close enough stadium deals with skeptical municipal officials and it will slowly fade away CUSL style. Reality is probably somewhere between those two extremes. Suspect they still have another year or so to put it all together for a 2020 launch as the Ticats may be in no hurry given the issues they have with the the City of Hamilton over the lease of Tim Horton Field.

[matty]

22 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

...and you are probably called Duane, but even he appears to have grown wise to it by this point and is no longer breathlessly blogging and podcasting whatever propaganda line he is being fed.

Best case scenario. They change the business plan somewhat to something Tom Fath thinks is sustainable and all the ducks finally line up neatly in a row early in the New Year for a 2019 launch to all be revealed at a time of the CSA's choosing. Worst case scenario. It has all begun to unravel because they can't agree on the business plan due to irreconcilable differences and/or close enough stadium deals with skeptical municipal officials and it will slowly fade away CUSL style. Reality is probably somewhere between those two extremes. Suspect they still have another year or so to put it all together for a 2020 launch as the Ticats may be in no hurry given the issues they have with the the City of Hamilton over the lease of Tim Horton Field.

They likely are in a hurry for 2019 rather than 2020 because their media window is closing. I know a lot of people say "I'd rather they be ready when they're ready" but the is with 2020 is that it is a full on 2 year delay from most early reports and a year late on PB's comments. Hype dies and often cannot be regained in the same way. They've already botched one launch, a second would hurt them bad.

You're best case scenario is a nightmare btw. If they're at this point at the business plan has fallen apart then the league is incompetent and if it's changed this late then the league has no real vision. I would be shocked if the plan has really changed from what Winnipeg and Hamilton committed to this late in the game.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Given Tom Fath remains unconvinced, it looks like the business plan hasn't been changed. The problem I think they have without Edmonton is that it provides one of the few ready to go as is stadiums and at least some of the other potentially interested cities probably want to see a successful launch first before they clamber on board and spend all the money needed to do some sort of stadium build.

[matty]

18 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Given Tom Fath remains unconvinced, it looks like the business plan hasn't been changed. The problem I think they have without Edmonton is that it provides one of the few ready to go as is stadiums and at least some of the other potentially interested cities probably want to see a successful launch first before they clamber on board and spend all the money needed to do some sort of stadium build.

I'd hope so. The only thing I'd think you could add for the league is TV and sponsors (I'd imagine having WestJet or a Best Western offering you like 10-25% off all expenses across Canada would be awesome for Fath). You can't really do this without spending NASL level player and coach salaries and travel and broadcast budget. Those two combined at going to be $1.5m on the low end and that's not counting other costs.

I agree launching successfully would likely help bring Fath and others on board but not everyone is going to be as public as Halifax about their plans.

Edited December 23, 2017 by matty

[Rheo]

It's alive 

 

[toontownman]

It happen.

[LAK]

7 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

You don't appear to be understanding my posts

QFT

[LAK]

7 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

You don't appear to be understanding my posts

It's mainly the condescension I don't understand. You stated that your concern was powerhouse Hamilton type clubs spending way more than smaller market clubs (Halifax, Saskatoon) which would be a bad thing for the league, so you suggested a lower cap (a good suggestion). I replied (citing the CFL as an example) that Halifax and Saskatoon are not that far off the Hamilton (and let me add Winnipeg, Edmonton, Ottawa) market in terms of their potential. The Riders are the number one team in the CFL better than Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver.

You replied CFL has different demographics, not soccer loving (the immigration argument) demographics. I respectfully agreed but I added that I thought a bigger factor might be the entertainment options citing the Lacrosse demographics in Saskatoon and Saskatchewan were not big at all and yet they averaged just shy of capacity (15,000) for their NLL games last year. They will get behind a team in Sask if it looks like it's a big deal (I would argue that Halifax is in the same situation) because they don't have 5 major sports teams and a plethora of other major events to take away their entertainment dollar. Meaning, I think it can equalize things a bit with BIGGER market clubs.

Then...you took a smug shot at me claiming I didn't understand your posts. I understood. I just thought we were having a conversation. 

[Gopherbashi]

2 hours ago, Rheo said:

It's alive 

Hopefully a productive one as well.

Edited December 23, 2017 by Gopherbashi

[hamiltonfan]

Just now, Gopherbashi said:

Number one in blown Grey Cup games, maybe.  

Don’t say that : (

oskie wee wee!!!!

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

22 hours ago, LAK said:

It's mainly the condescension I don't understand...  

Don't think it's unreasonable to point out that somebody is misrepresenting the arguments that I have been using. I had to do something similar with Soefeia when a similar strawman approach was being used over MLS reserve teams as opposed to affiliates as the opening salvo in getting overly personal with suggestions of cognitive disonance because I dare to question the prevailing group think on here.

In general I see two major problems. Firstly there appears to me to be a belief that 2007 in Toronto was a case of the Canadian mainstream finally embracing soccer and Paul Beirne can now replicate whatever he did with TFC in any generic Bob and Doug McKenzie type Canadian city with CanPL when my experience of it was that the traditional backbone of Canadian soccer interest (people born overseas and their children) simply started tuning in again in big numbers for the first time since the NASL in the early 80s and Paul Beirne getting praise for things that would have happened anyway no matter who MLSE hired. He did a lot of good things so that isn't really a criticism of him, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Tom Anselmi and co had to be replaced by Leiweke and Bazbatchenko before good things started happening for TFC and the good will of the fan base very nearly evaporated over ticket price hikes prior to that.

Secondly there is a belief that what happens with MLS in a top tier North American league with teams in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles and players like Beckham, Pirlo and Sweinsteiger will translate to a Canadian context when teams in Halifax, Kitchener and Saskatoon are involved. Excuse me if I am skeptical on that one having watched how Blizzard crowds went from 15000 or so in the original NASL with players like Roberto Bettega in place to 500 or so with a mainly Canadian roster and import players like Lex Baillie and Ted Eck all in the space of less than five years, and having heard how the London Lasers thought they were doing badly with crowds in the hundreds until they had been once around the league for road games and saw first hand that the announced attendance numbers in many cities bore no correlation to actual crowd sizes (I am looking at you North York Rockets). The market for a domestic pro league is still unproven. Things have moved on quite a bit on over the last 30 years but 4500-6000 looks wildly optimistic to me.

Edited December 24, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[Macksam]

Prevailing group think? I'm sorry but please stop.

Everyone's opinion on here is quite diverse actually and open minded because they don't know what exactly the future holds for this league.

You don't get cut down because you go against the grain with your opinion. There is no group think and no grain to go against. You get cut down because, not unlike Soefeia's critique of you,  you pass your narrow minded views of what this league's problems are and what it should be as ardent facts when it's just an opinion like everybody else's. You get cut down because unlike everyone else over here, you sound like a broken record. The fact it's a mainly negative broken record just draws more attention to it. Please think again before you accuse the others of group think.

I'm not going to comment too much on your skepticisms as we've all seen it before.

Your experience it was the "traditional backbone of Canadian soccer interest". In my experiences the crowds are quite diverse, you literally can't nail down the demographic at TFC games. You can say it's younger sure but that's just one part of it.

The last paragraph isn't even here or there. What clubs need to do with regards to drawing fans in markets like New York, Chicago and LA is completely irrelevant when it comes to the Canadian cities you mentioned and bringing up what happened to the Blizzard's fanbase over 30 years ago doesn't mean anything.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Macksam

[kmacphee]

Comparing Halifax to a generic “Bob and Doug Mackenzie” type city is a special combination of inaccuracy and ignorance I have not seen before.  Nothing at all wrong with Bob and Doug and it’s associated culture and values...but Halifax is as far away from that culture as anywhere in North America.  Heck, even back in the late 80’s/early 90’s we were being compared with Seattle as a hip city.  And since then Halifax has grown far more diverse and exciting.

 

[matty]

6 minutes ago, kmacphee said:

Comparing Halifax to a generic “Bob and Doug Mackenzie” type city is a special combination of inaccuracy and ignorance I have not seen before.  Nothing at all wrong with Bob and Doug and it’s associated culture and values...but Halifax is as far away from that culture as anywhere in North America.  Heck, even back in the late 80’s/early 90’s we were being compared with Seattle as a hip city.  And since then Halifax has grown far more diverse and exciting.

 

Yea but haven't random nova scotians invested millions digging up an island to get like 2milliom gbp?

[Blackdude]

4 hours ago, kmacphee said:

Comparing Halifax to a generic “Bob and Doug Mackenzie” type city is a special combination of inaccuracy and ignorance I have not seen before.  Nothing at all wrong with Bob and Doug and it’s associated culture and values...but Halifax is as far away from that culture as anywhere in North America.  Heck, even back in the late 80’s/early 90’s we were being compared with Seattle as a hip city.  And since then Halifax has grown far more diverse and exciting.

 

I thought people compared Halifax to Sunnyvale Trailer Park, not Bob and Doug McKenzie. 

[Kent]

On 2017-12-18 at 10:41 AM, Bison44 said:

The problem is that our e-sport kids are just gifted spots, they dont have to fight everyday at WOW and donkey kong training.  We dont have the passion for video games that germany, spain or china have.  

LERROOYYY JENKINSSSSSS!!!  

Liked for Leroy Jenkins shout out.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

This link is worth a look for how the three MLS markets differ quite drastically in demographic terms due to immigration from what are described as second and third tier cities:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/reports-statistics/research/recent-immigrants-metropolitan-areas-canada-comparative-profile-based-on-2001-census/partg.html

Doesn't mean that pro soccer can't work in Halifax and Saskatoon, but if it were to on the scale envisaged by CanPL it will involve many more new fans being attracted to the sport for the first time as spectators and getting hooked as regularly returning fans than was the case with MLS expansion in Toronto where there were vast numbers of people in the GTA waiting to be attracted back post-1984 if truly D1 level quality soccer ever reemerged again who either grew up watching pro soccer overseas or grew up in Canada Fraser Aird style in a home where the fortunes of an overseas pro soccer team were still being followed very closely by their father.

[matty]

11 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

This link is worth a look for how the three MLS markets differ quite drastically in demographic terms due to immigration from what are described as second and third tier cities:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/reports-statistics/research/recent-immigrants-metropolitan-areas-canada-comparative-profile-based-on-2001-census/partg.html

Doesn't mean that pro soccer can't work in Halifax and Saskatoon, but if it were to on the scale envisaged by CanPL it will involve many more new fans being attracted to the sport for the first time as spectators and getting hooked as regularly returning fans than was the case with MLS expansion in Toronto where there were vast numbers of people in the GTA waiting to be attracted back post-1984 if truly D1 level quality soccer ever reemerged again who either grew up watching pro soccer overseas or grew up in Canada Fraser Aird style in a home where the fortunes of an overseas pro soccer team were still being followed very closely by their father.

I don't think the link matters too much as the sport has grown in popularity across the nation since 2007. I also think it's worth mentioning a large chunk of recent immigrants (1984 to now) are from non-soccer nations like India, Pakistan, China and even the US so I don't think the league (over even TFc) popularity is heavily linked to capturing the immigrant soccer fan.

Honestly I think the CPL will be more focused on civic pride and summertime boredom, as disappointing as the later might be to hear, to find its initial fanbase. Yes there will be a portion of fans from Italian or Jamaican or Saudi backgrounds who grew up on the sport but I don't see them be the driving force of the fanbase unless they form a supporters group.

[Rheo]

They certainly seem to a bit more forthcoming lately 

 

[Rheo]

Missed this reply after from him 

Assume he means calm on the surface but really busy that we don't see 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Not sure why people feel a need to deny the blindingly obvious on this stuff. In the not so distant past over 250,000 Italian fans celebrated on the streets in Toronto after a World Cup final victory. How many were doing that in Halifax or Saskatoon? Latent interest in soccer was always huge in certain parts of the country primarily where the MLS teams are located. Elsewhere several hundred thousand farmer types on the prairies are still tuning in religiously to the CFL on a regular basis while MLS ratings beyond the occasional playoff game are far from spectacular as people like Chris Zelkovich and Joe McCarthy never tire of reminding us. Immigrants in the big three cities usually tend to be lukewarm at best about the CFL and in many cases were more than ready to embrace the sport they really prefer rather than the ones that the CBC or sports radio stations like the FAN590 tell them to enjoy, but the Canadian born portion of the population of cities like Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton and Ottawa already have football teams and are not really crying out for another one with a different shaped ball as far as I can see. Good luck to them, if that's what floats their boat.

The question of national team support brings us to another angle that gets talked up way too much where CanPL is concerned, namely the role of the Canadian player. Rightly or wrongly (the latter in my opinion as I have always swam against the tide on this like most people who post here) soccer enthusiasts in Canada are usually lukewarm at best towards the national team and often completely indifferent or worse openly derisive about it. Hence why the recent El Salvador game wound up on a webstream rather than an easily accessed basic cable channel like an MLS game. The idea that pushing the Canadian player angle is likely to be a successful marketing ploy in a soccer context is frankly bizarre, unfortunately, and looks like a case of outsiders viewing our sport through the prism of what works for the CFL, but not really understanding what they are dealing with. Would genuinely love to be proved wrong on that.

[matty]

1 hour ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Not sure why people feel a need to deny the blindingly obvious on this stuff. In the not so distant past over 250,000 Italian fans celebrated on the streets in Toronto after a World Cup final victory. How many were doing that in Halifax or Saskatoon? Latent interest in soccer was always huge in certain parts of the country primarily where the MLS teams are located. Elsewhere several hundred thousand farmer types on the prairies are still tuning in religiously to the CFL on a regular basis while MLS ratings beyond the occasional playoff game are far from spectacular as people like Chris Zelkovich and Joe McCarthy never tire of reminding us. Immigrants in the big three cities usually tend to be lukewarm at best about the CFL and in many cases were more than ready to embrace the sport they really prefer rather than the ones that the CBC or sports radio stations like the FAN590 tell them to enjoy, but the Canadian born portion of the population of cities like Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton and Ottawa already have football teams and are not really crying out for another one with a different shaped ball as far as I can see. Good luck to them, if that's what floats their boat.

The question of national team support brings us to another angle that gets talked up way too much where CanPL is concerned, namely the role of the Canadian player. Rightly or wrongly (the latter in my opinion as I have always swam against the tide on this like most people who post here) soccer enthusiasts in Canada are usually lukewarm at best towards the national team and often completely indifferent or worse openly derisive about it. Hence why the recent El Salvador game wound up on a webstream rather than an easily accessed basic cable channel like an MLS game. The idea that pushing the Canadian player angle is likely to be a successful marketing ploy in a soccer context is frankly bizarre, unfortunately, and looks like a case of outsiders viewing our sport through the prism of what works for the CFL, but not really understanding what they are dealing with. Would genuinely love to be proved wrong on that.

I'm not denying anything but simply saying I think ethnic demographics are not as key as you think.

The Italian thing is more about heritage than being soccer crazy in many ways (most Canadians of Italian decent do not give a fuck about Serie A or soccer unless it's the Euros or World Cup, even older ones) and denial of that is foolish. Soccer viewing and following goes beyond MLS BTW. Those farmer might only watch a cup final and World Cup but they likely are cool with soccer and would watch something closer to home if they had the chance.

Again a lot of the immigrants your talking about (the post 1985 ones) are not from soccer nations and have not only taken a shine to say TFC, Impact and Whitecaps but also the Jays, Raptors, Canucks, Leafs and Canadiens as well. The reason the CFL isn't winning them over is likely the same as why the NFL is losing viewers: other sports are either faster or more interesting and young people don't really care.

Also you're wrong about the broadcast. Broadcasting rights to games are usually controlled by the host nation, it's why a lot of CanMNT team games played elsewhere have to be streamed. In the event of a neutral game the rights are likely out of Canadian control and possibly were not included in the deal to play in Houston. BTW The CSA has a broadcast deal with TSN/RDS so clearly there is interest in showing Canadian soccer.

The Canadian angle can work if it's promoted right. It's a big reason why it's concerning that there's no TV in the current plan cause without that and proper local media coverage the CPL very well could fail.

Edited December 27, 2017 by matty

[LAK]

1 hour ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Elsewhere several hundred thousand farmer types on the prairies...

C'mon man. How can you honestly expect to have legitimate conversation about something when you say stuff like this? It's pure ignorance.

In your argument, you site an immigration report from 16 years ago (The Saskatchewan immigration patterns have changed significantly) and then discuss the number of Italians that took to the streets in Toronto in 2006(11 years ago).

Maybe you're right, maybe we can convince the MLS clubs to lose even more money on developmental teams in a league that no one comes to and convince these latest financial backers to go along with that too, because those farmer types would come out in droves to see their team play TFC III (with a different name because somehow that will fool everyone into thinking it's better than it is...after all they are dumb farmer types). 

[Complete Homer]

No one is ignoring the "blindingly obvious" point that high immigrant populations in the three big centres  helped the MLS teams, they are ignoring the implied and repeated argument that the absence (or rather, just smaller) immigrant populations in other centres makes CPL untenable. 

We're now multiple generations deep in which soccer has been the primary summer sport for kids, and the first generation where there has been long term and legitimate domestic pro soccer available. Continuing to assume that the same rules that applied in 1980, 1990, or even 2000 is unreasonable. 

I've already trotted out my own anecdotal evidence of rural Ontario where soccer reigns #2, so I won't repeat it. I doubt anyone in the crowd at tfc games would claim immigration is driving the crowd size. The games I've seen at BC Place would also argue strongly against the idea that the most prevalent immigrant populations are driving attendance. 

I don't blame BBTB for having his views skewed by witnessing decades of apathy, but the argument that immigrants are needed to make soccer work is outdated. Things have changed. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Complete Homer

[yellowsweatygorilla]

5 hours ago, matty said:

I don't think the link matters too much as the sport has grown in popularity across the nation since 2007. I also think it's worth mentioning a large chunk of recent immigrants (1984 to now) are from non-soccer nations like India, Pakistan, China and even the US so I don't think the league (over even TFc) popularity is heavily linked to capturing the immigrant soccer fan.

Honestly I think the CPL will be more focused on civic pride and summertime boredom, as disappointing as the later might be to hear, to find its initial fanbase. Yes there will be a portion of fans from Italian or Jamaican or Saudi backgrounds who grew up on the sport but I don't see them be the driving force of the fanbase unless they form a supporters group.

I am not necessarily going to argue that its all about demographics, and I do believe that the sport can do well in places with less immigrants. And I know this is a very minor point, but I do have to challenge your point about China not being a Soccer Nation.  It's the most popular sport in the country. Heck, we like to claim we invented the game.  Domestics soccer does have support and international soccer gets significant attention.  I grew up in Hong Kong and that was pretty much the only sport followed.  while the domestic League does a lot better with the older  generation,  the English Premier League is certainly better supported then Canada.  and when Hong Kong played China this year the whole city was watching.  at TFC games I see a lot of Chinese season seat holders. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by yellowsweatygorilla