FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Kent]

44 minutes ago, Jith12 said:

So let me get this straight: If the points for the other teams stays the same, we will move up to 92nd. Is this correct?

Yes.

You can use the "Prognosis Tool" at the bottom of this page.

http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-tools/index.html

It only ever shows games for the upcoming month.

[Zem]

1 hour ago, Jith12 said:

So let me get this straight: If the points for the other teams stays the same, we will move up to 92nd. Is this correct?

Correct, although it's important to note that since this is a WCQ window, many of the teams around us will be playing a lot of valuable matches while we only had a friendly.

Scanning through the ranking projections now that the WCQ matches are almost all played, it looks like there will be 8 teams that will go from below our projected ranking points (368) to above that, while only 2 teams will go from above that number to below it. So although it's not compreshensive, I'd actually project our new world ranking to be around 98th, although our world ranking is completely meaningless as long as we haven't qualified for a World Cup.

What's more important is our confederation ranking (since it is the basis of WCQ seeding), which will remain at 10th, but we are quickly creeping up behind T&T and Curacao who are projected to be only 13 and 37 points ahead of us, respectively.

Edited September 5, 2017 by Zem

[Jith12]

14 minutes ago, Zem said:

Correct, although it's important to note that since this is a WCQ window, many of the teams around us will be playing a lot of valuable matches while we only had a friendly.

Scanning through the ranking projections now that the WCQ matches are almost all played, it looks like there will be 8 teams that will go from below our projected ranking points (368) to above that, while only 2 teams will go from above that number to below it. So although it's not compreshensive, I'd actually project our new world ranking to be around 98th, although our world ranking is completely meaningless as long as we haven't qualified for a World Cup.

What's more important is our confederation ranking (since it is the basis of WCQ seeding), which will remain at 10th, but we are quickly creeping up behind T&T and Curacao who are projected to be only 13 and 37 points ahead of us, respectively.

So essentially, the smartest move would be to play one of the teams that are just ahead of us in the CONCACAF rankings right before WCQ's to jump them and get a better draw, right?

[Addona]

1 hour ago, Zem said:

Correct, although it's important to note that since this is a WCQ window, many of the teams around us will be playing a lot of valuable matches while we only had a friendly.

Scanning through the ranking projections now that the WCQ matches are almost all played, it looks like there will be 8 teams that will go from below our projected ranking points (368) to above that, while only 2 teams will go from above that number to below it. So although it's not compreshensive, I'd actually project our new world ranking to be around 98th, although our world ranking is completely meaningless as long as we haven't qualified for a World Cup.

What's more important is our confederation ranking (since it is the basis of WCQ seeding), which will remain at 10th, but we are quickly creeping up behind T&T and Curacao who are projected to be only 13 and 37 points ahead of us, respectively.

I believe we PASS T&T if they lose tonight vs. Panama ... I could be wrong about this, but that's what I remembered last time I checked.

[Unnamed Trialist]

4 hours ago, dsqpr said:

Tennis has known for about 30 years that "best n results" is the way to do rankings because using averages punishes players that play more in smaller tournaments (there are only 4 Grand Slams -- and only one World Cup!). Duh. As I have posted before, the collective stupidity of the people who run the beautiful game continues to amaze.

I am not sure you are describing tennis rankings correctly. They too favour the better players and put the onus on the weaker ones to raise their game, upset higher ranked players, and risk in harder tournaments. There are vicious circles for the modest, and virtuous circles for the elite.

If you play more in smaller tournaments like Challengers and 250 there are way less points to gain, you can maybe get into the top 100 if you excel, but not much higher. Even in smaller tournaments, however, there are points to be defended the following year, or else you lose them, so there is an inertia that encourages players to repeat smaller (Challenger, 250) tournaments year after year. 

Since playing modest tournaments you can get your ranking up only partially, eventually you have to risk by entering higher level tournaments. Apart from Grand Slams, wins in qualifying rounds and even early rounds will not get you any ranking points at all. If you do not have the ranking to play these tournaments (Masters 1000 start with 128 players in 1st round, so you have to be ranked close to that to even be allowed to enter), then you have to play qualifying rounds, like Shapovalov just did at the US Open. Then, once into the main draw, you will meet higher ranked players in earlier rounds and your chances are slim, you are a 115 and you meet a 16 first round. The only way to get points is to upset a player ranked above you and continue through the draw, beating higher ranked players and passing rounds. Then go back the following year and repeat the process, or else risk losing obtained points. 

Conclusion: like with football rankings, you get more points playing higher level tournaments, and can't unless you beat superior rivals. So the natural tendency is for the strong to be benefitted and the onus is on the weak to break down the existing order through upsets. We are #10 in Concacaf, and will never be ranked in the top 2 of a semi-final WCQ group unless we change that. The only way to do it is to beat those superior teams, preferably in a tournament with more points at stake (Gold Cup).

Edited September 5, 2017 by Unnamed Trialist

[Blackjack15]

We're only moving up 3 spots to 92nd place? Damn that sucks!

[Zem]

1 hour ago, Addona said:

I believe we PASS T&T if they lose tonight vs. Panama ... I could be wrong about this, but that's what I remembered last time I checked.

Ah, yeah that would definitely be the case; I didn't realise they hadn't played that match yet.

[Zem]

2 hours ago, Jith12 said:

So essentially, the smartest move would be to play one of the teams that are just ahead of us in the CONCACAF rankings right before WCQ's to jump them and get a better draw, right?

Presumably, although we don't know what CONCACAF's new WCQ system is going to be like for 2022. Based on the old system we'd need to get to 8th to automatically qualify for the last playoff round and we'd need to be top 6 to get a bye into the group stage.

That is definitely a nice side-effect of OZ's stated strategy of playing friendlies primarily against the CONCACAF nations we need to beat to have a chance at qualifying (i.e. the teams just below the Big 3), who happen to also be the teams we're competing with for better seeding.

[masster]

On 9/5/2017 at 9:30 AM, Kent said:

I guess this is relevant for this thread.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/09/04/fifa-review-rankings-system-friendlies-harm-englands-world-cup/

I'm not sure why it would be expected for a team that didn't make the final 8 of the last Euro Cup, or the final 16 of the last World Cup, to be ranked in the top 7 in the world, but hey, if it causes the review and things can be improved that's great.

A more in depth article on how England has been hurt by not playing the rankings game:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-friendlies-are-hurting-englands-world-cup-hopes-d7rt5gdzw?shareToken=3f7702dc98bcb07e1c52feeb314a37be

[Mike Thompson]

The next release is September 14th (This upcoming Thursday) 

[Chad_Impact]

How the hell did we drop a spot in these rankings 

[SpecialK]

Because the Jamaica game was only a friendly so the importantance points were low and a bunch of teams made some huge jumps like Cyprus,Cape Verde Islands,Finland, Norway , Zambia and Syria.

thank god we only went down by one. 

If we played another game that week it would have helped. 

Edited September 14, 2017 by SpecialK

[Blackdude]

7 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

Because the Jamaica game was only a friendly so the importantance points were low and a bunch of teams made some huge jumps like Cyprus,Cape Verde Islands,Finland, Norway , Zambia and Syria.

thank god we only went down by one. 

If we played another game that week it would have helped. 

I think if we played another game that week, we would have gone down even more. 

[Justinmacd88]

This shows the importance of playing friendlies against other Concacaf teams when major competitions are going on. We lost a spot overall but technically we gained three spots against Jamaica. 

Our ranking within Concacaf is the most important thing right now.

[Zem]

7 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

I think if we played another game that week, we would have gone down even more. 

Not necessarily, that would have depended on the result and the opponent. A win against any team we reasonably might have played against would almost certainly have increased our point total.

33 minutes ago, Chad_Impact said:

How the hell did we drop a spot in these rankings 

We dropped a spot, but our ranking point total went up which is more important. While we played one friendly, most countries near us ranking-wise were playing WCQs, so it's not surprising that we couldn't keep up.

We will be passively trending upward next month, so that combined with a win against El Salvador would almost guarantee that our rank will increase.

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

Because the Jamaica game was only a friendly so the importantance points were low and a bunch of teams made some huge jumps like Cyprus,Cape Verde Islands,Finland, Norway , Zambia and Syria.

thank god we only went down by one. 

If we played another game that week it would have helped. 

I know if we dropped wven more spots it would be a huuuuuuuuuuge disaster  for our program. We should have folded if that happened

[Blackjack15]

Why did we go down one spot? 

It doesn't make sense considering we bested a higher ranked National Team in Jamaica

[Jith12]

5 minutes ago, Blackjack15 said:

Why did we go down one spot? 

It doesn't make sense considering we bested a higher ranked National Team in Jamaica

Most of the teams that leaped us played WCQ's in the window. Since those are worth more points they jumped over us. We should just be happy that FIFA ended up recognizing the game. If they didn't recognize it we could have dropped more. Also, we are now ahead of T&T which is great for our CONCACAF ranking. On top of that, El Salvador went up 4 places making our friendly next month more meaningful. Now, a win will get us more points and a loss could mean that El Salvador leaps over us in the rankings.

[youllneverwalkalone]

When is our friendly with Haiti?

[Mike Thompson]

CONCACAF Top 10? 

Does Anyone have that info

[Justinmacd88]

7 minutes ago, Mike Thompson said:

CONCACAF Top 10? 

Does Anyone have that info

http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/concacaf.html

[jtpc]

Hopefully this is the start of us solidifying a top 8 spot in CONCACAF. When you look at the projections for next month, they have us gaining another 17 points, which would bring our point total to 385. They haven't loaded our friendly with SLV into the system yet, so you'd think that 385 would potentially go a bit higher with a win. Depending on what happens this month with Curacao (who may drop 25 points to 380) and T&T (who have 2 WCQ matches), a point total around 385 could see us in 8th in the region by October 16th.

I was expecting our friendly win against JAM to get us a lot more than 16 points since they were ranked 54th at the time, but I guess it's because friendlies are only have a multiplying factor of 1 instead of GC matches which are multiplied by 3. If defeating JAM in a friendly only got us another 16 points, defeating SLV in a friendly who are ranked 99th will probably get us peanuts in terms of additional points, but at least we're trending in the right direction. Can't wait to see us break 400 points, as it would make HON seem more reachable for 7th, if we were both in the 400's.

[matty]

4 hours ago, Justinmacd88 said:

This shows the importance of playing friendlies against other Concacaf teams when major competitions are going on. We lost a spot overall but technically we gained three spots against Jamaica. 

Our ranking within Concacaf is the most important thing right now.

So csa should keep up the good work it's doing with these friendlies? 

[SpecialK]

I would love see Canada play Haiti because it's a huge Joke they are 48th in the World and 4th in CONCACAF.  I hope soon ( during the winter) I would like to see them play teams like Australia, Greece, 50-40 Ranked teams and closer to the World Cup play a few big boys. 

It would be great if we could get into the top 70-60 after winter if possible.

Canada needs to hosts some games in the winter! For me it's a must, we gonna show Soccer is all year sport. We have the stadiums, I hope we use them

Edited September 15, 2017 by SpecialK

[Blackdude]

Canada-Haiti in November in Montreal. CSA could make money and play in a hostile environment.   

Edited September 15, 2017 by Blackdude