FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Blackjack15]

22 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

@Edgar has released a projection of CONCACAF rankings for 2022 World Cup qualifying.  Although the qualifying format reportedly will be different, it's interesting to see that the Americans are projected to be 4th.  Under the old system that would leave them outside the top seeds.  We're projected 9th.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/10/2022-fifa-world-cup-qualifying-concacaf.html

So according to the link we're expected to play in the second round! As usual.

Wasn't there gonna be some changes made to Concacaf WCQ? Unless it remains the same this is an accurate representation of what it will be like 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

2 minutes ago, Blackjack15 said:

So according to the link we're expected to play in the second round! As usual.

Wasn't there gonna be some changes made to Concacaf WCQ? Unless it remains the same this is an accurate representation of what it will be like 

He's assuming it will be the format again for the sake of the ranking projection but that won't be the format.  General Secretary Moggio repeated again last month at Soccerex that it will change.  

[Kent]

I almost don't want it to change now that there is a chance for USA to not be in the top pot.

Seriously though, I am very curious to see what they come up with. I hope they announce it soon rather than waiting for just before the draw.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

12 hours ago, Kent said:

I almost don't want it to change now that there is a chance for USA to not be in the top pot.

Seriously though, I am very curious to see what they come up with. I hope they announce it soon rather than waiting for just before the draw.

And with our luck we'd get a group like USA/MEX/JAM/CAN.  No thanks.  Time for a change. 

Bring on the decagonal!

[Mike Thompson]

8 teams in the final would work 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

12 hours ago, Mike Thompson said:

8 teams in the final would work 

That's what it always should've been.  Having a final 6 team group where only a third of the teams get eliminated is ridiculous.  Last time around, CONCACAF left the FIFA windows of October 2015 and October 2016 unused so there were enough dates for the extra games.  For 2022 there are even more windows available with the World Cup pushed back 5 months later.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

That's what it always should've been.  Having a final 6 team group where only a third of the teams get eliminated is ridiculous.  Last time around, CONCACAF left the FIFA windows of October 2015 and October 2016 unused so there were enough dates for the extra games.  For 2022 there are even more windows available with the World Cup pushed back 5 months later.

How is that format ridiculous? Are you insisting the hex does not have enough drama or are you saying the best teams to do not advance? Because it is a hard no to both of those questions

[CanadianSoccerFan]

35 minutes ago, canta15 said:

How is that format ridiculous? Are you insisting the hex does not have enough drama or are you saying the best teams to do not advance? Because it is a hard no to both of those questions

I repeat: "only a third of teams getting eliminated is ridiculous".  USA had to finish 5th out of 6 to get knocked out.  Panama just qualified winning only 3 games out of 10.  Mexico qualified in 2014 winning only 2 games out of 10.  With a group of 8 you at least need to finish top half and have something remotely resembling a winning record..  

Edited October 15, 2017 by CanadianSoccerFan

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I repeat: "only a third of teams getting eliminated is ridiculous".  USA had to finish 5th out of 6 to get knocked out.  Panama just qualified winning only 3 games out of 10.  Mexico qualified in 2014 winning only 2 games out of 10.  With a group of 8 you at least need to finish top half and have something remotely resembling a winning record..  

You do realize the teams have these recorda because of the difficulty of the group right? So you want to add to teams to the group just to inflate the records of the qualifying teams, similar to the afc where they added minnows Thailand to the 2nd last qualifying stage where they got absolutely battered

[CanadianSoccerFan]

1 hour ago, canta15 said:

You do realize the teams have these recorda because of the difficulty of the group right? So you want to add to teams to the group just to inflate the records of the qualifying teams, similar to the afc where they added minnows Thailand to the 2nd last qualifying stage where they got absolutely battered

That ignores the fact that getting into the hex has a lot to do with the luck of the semi-final group draw.  Trinidad's not even the best team in the Caribbean let alone a top 6 team in CONCACAF but they had the soft draw.  Jamaica made two straight Gold Cup finals but had a tough draw.  We beat Honduras head to head but since unmotivated Mexico put out a bunch of kids on the last matchday we've been out for a year while Honduras is going to Australia.  I was one of many V's saying that making the hex would be more difficult than advancing out of it and I haven't changed my mind.  

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

That ignores the fact that getting into the hex has a lot to do with the luck of the semi-final group draw.  Trinidad's not even the best team in the Caribbean let alone a top 6 team in CONCACAF but they had the soft draw.  Jamaica made two straight Gold Cup finals but had a tough draw.  We beat Honduras head to head but since unmotivated Mexico put out a bunch of kids on the last matchday we've been out for a year while Honduras is going to Australia.  I was one of many V's saying that making the hex would be more difficult than advancing out of it and I haven't changed my mind.  

The fact that you think we deserved to make it to the hex is a complete joke. What, you think if we were placed in Tnt’s position we would have done any better? We can’t even beat El Salvador B (a shite version of El Salvador for all those who cry “it wasn’t a B team”) and Belize away, how could we beat Guatamala when they beat the states. And I hate when people say “we beat them h2h” Head to head doesn’t mean squat in WCQs unless you are playing a 2 legged head to head playoff. Goal differential is the tiebreaker not head to head. We have to out best every team in the group not just one

 

And the reason Jamaica performs soo well in Gold Cup compared to WCQs is the fact that, like us, they can’t win in Central America. Tell me, is the Gold Cup played in Central America?

Edited October 15, 2017 by Guest

[CanadianSoccerFan]

2 hours ago, canta15 said:

The fact that you think we deserved to make it to the hex is a complete joke. What, you think if we were placed in Tnt’s position we would have done any better? We can’t even beat El Salvador B (a shite version of El Salvador for all those who cry “it wasn’t a B team”) and Belize away, how could we beat Guatamala when they beat the states. And I hate when people say “we beat them h2h” Head to head doesn’t mean squat in WCQs unless you are playing a 2 legged head to head playoff. Goal differential is the tiebreaker not head to head. We have to out best every team in the group not just one

 

And the reason Jamaica performs soo well in Gold Cup compared to WCQs is the fact that, like us, they can’t win in Central America. Tell me, is the Gold Cup played in Central America?

The US also failed to win in Central America just like Jamaica through both rounds.  They also finished a point behind Honduras in a group (hex) won by Mexico largely due to losing to a TnT B team.  Fairly similar to us finishing a point behind Honduras in a group won by Mexico largely due to a draw with a Salvadoran B team.  If the US had our group in the semis then maybe they wouldn't be in the hex either, but it's sure nice being a top seed.  

We missed by a single point and maybe we do or don't deserve to make the hex but a single point is not a chasm.  My point is that a larger final group puts that discussion to bed with the draw being of far less relevance.  

[Guest]

3 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

The US also failed to win in Central America just like Jamaica through both rounds.  They also finished a point behind Honduras in a group (hex) won by Mexico largely due to losing to a TnT B team.  Fairly similar to us finishing a point behind Honduras in a group won by Mexico largely due to a draw with a Salvadoran B team.  If the US had our group in the semis then maybe they wouldn't be in the hex either, but it's sure nice being a top seed.  

We missed by a single point and maybe we do or don't deserve to make the hex but a single point is not a chasm.  My point is that a larger final group puts that discussion to bed with the draw being of far less relevance.  

The funny thing is the draw had no relevance in this cycle. No other team deserved to be in the Hex from the 4th round. But sure lets just make a group of 12 instead to scrap the draw altogether because it was clearly our luck that made us avoid the hex and not our lack of chemistry, skill, and coaching

[Kent]

FIFA ranking procedure is going to be reviewed and potentially changed after the 2018 World Cup.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-fifa/fifa-rankings-loophole-likely-to-disappear-after-world-cup-draw-idUKKBN1DG2TO

[Gopherbashi]

31 minutes ago, Kent said:

FIFA ranking procedure is going to be reviewed and potentially changed after the 2018 World Cup.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-fifa/fifa-rankings-loophole-likely-to-disappear-after-world-cup-draw-idUKKBN1DG2TO

This may not be the change we're looking for - sounds like they're only looking at teams who stay high in the rankings by playing a small number of friendlies, rather than disparities caused by differing numbers of official games.

[Kent]

Yes, the loophole they mention I don't think has negatively affected us, but it looks like everything is up for review. Besides, if I'm not mistaken, I think the original post in this thread was talking about how we should game the system as much as we can to raise our ranking.

At any rate, it's possible that the new League of Nations will help with our problem of not having Gold Cup qualifying games while Caribbean teams shoot up the rankings because of the Caribbean championships.

[masster]

The FIFA ranking system is one of the main reasons Italy missed the World Cup
http://www.espnfc.com/blog/marcotti-musings/62/post/3268113/italy-have-only-themselves-to-blame-neymars-tears-for-real

Italy need to play the FIFA rankings game

Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of blame to be heaped on Ventura -- even if things go Italy's way on Monday night. The players need to share the load too. This may not be a vintage Azzurri group -- there's a glut of gifted youngsters who are deemed "not yet ready" and some veterans who are sticking around too long -- but it is several levels better than what Antonio Conte had to deal with in 2016.

Still, there's a collective failure at FA level. In the summer of 2014, I got an email from a guy named Eduard Ranghuic -- a mathematician who works with federations to help them play the FIFA rankings game. He asked if I could put him in touch with Conte and the Italian FA. I forwarded his email. As far as I know, he never heard back.

My mind went back to Ranghuic, when Italy were second seeds in the World Cup qualifying draw and ended up in the same group as Spain, which, incidentally, is the reason they're in the playoffs. Countries are seeded based on FIFA rankings which are, essentially, a mathematical formula based on results over the past four years. More recent results are weighted more heavily, as are competitive games, and matches against stronger opponents matter more.

Like all systems, it can be "gamed." That's what Ranghuic helps teams do, by carefully scheduling the right opponents at the right time. And that's exactly what Italy failed to do. The pots for the draw were based on FIFA rankings as of July 2015, and those were based on results over the past four years. In that timeframe, Italy won both their qualifying groups and reached the final of Euro 2012 (good) and were eliminated in the group stage of the 2014 World Cup (not so good, but at least they won a game).

Where they were terrible was in friendlies. They won just five of 21 in that time period, drawing with the likes of Haiti, Ireland and Luxembourg, and losing to the United States and Russia. That combination of not taking friendlies seriously while scheduling the wrong opponents at the wrong time proved lethal. And it's a big part of the reason why the likes of Austria, Slovakia, Wales and Romania were all ranked ahead of the Azzurri at the time of the draw. The FIFA rankings are far from perfect. But they do matter, and they're based on a straight mathematical formula. Clever FAs pay attention to this. Foolish ones don't and pay a price.

[Guest]

The game when Italy went into pot 2 was when they lost to a Ronaldoless Portugal in a friendly with a mediocre team. 

Conte fielded a lesser team as he wanted to test guys out and he did not care whether Italy went into the 2nd pot as he was leaving after the Euros regardless of how well he did.

[Unnamed Trialist]

We are 94th, up 2, in the new rankings. Tenth in Concacaf, with T+T and Curazao within range. We´d have to do a lot more to catch the 7th team, now Honduras at 70th.

The top, 3rd and 5th teams from our region are going to the WC. In the top 15 in UEFA, only three are not going to the WC, Italy who are 9th in the region, Wales and N Ireland. The rankings that most closely reflect WC qualifying are in fact in UEFA.

The lowest ranked team for the WC as we stand is Russia, at 65, but of course without official matches lately. S Arabia is next lowest at 63rd. 

Realistically, if we want to get to a WC, we have be consistently in the top 60-70 as a minimum standard.

Edited November 24, 2017 by Unnamed Trialist

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

 

Realistically, if we want to get to a WC, we have be consistently in the top 60-70 as a minimum standard.

The ranking comes with good performances. If we become a better team and actually perform in WCQs, that ranking will get higher

[Kadenge]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

We are 94th, up 2, in the new rankings. Tenth in Concacaf, with T+T and Curazao within range. We´d have to do a lot more to catch the 7th team, now Honduras at 70th.

The top, 3rd and 5th teams from our region are going to the WC. In the top 15 in UEFA, only three are not going to the WC, Italy who are 9th in the region, Wales and N Ireland. The rankings that most closely reflect WC qualifying are in fact in UEFA.

The lowest ranked team for the WC as we stand is Russia, at 65, but of course without official matches lately. S Arabia is next lowest at 63rd. 

Realistically, if we want to get to a WC, we have be consistently in the top 60-70 as a minimum standard.

would you believe that our latest FIFA ranking was on CP24 news yesterday! Perhaps main stream media are finally getting on board.

[Jith12]

13 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

would you believe that our latest FIFA ranking was on CP24 news yesterday! Perhaps main stream media are finally getting on board.

I just wish that it was a better ranking they had to report. It is a step in the right direction for men's soccer in Canada, though. 

[Kent]

3 hours ago, Kadenge said:

would you believe that our latest FIFA ranking was on CP24 news yesterday! Perhaps main stream media are finally getting on board.

I noticed that and was shocked by it too.

[harrycoyster]

On 11/24/2017 at 9:56 AM, canta15 said:

The ranking comes with good performances. If we become a better team and actually perform in WCQs, that ranking will get higher

This whole thread could be renamed "Putting the cart before the horse"

[matty]

13 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

This whole thread could be renamed "Putting the cart before the horse"

isn't that the point of this entire fanbase?